Date CON LAB LDEM Lead
YouGov/Telegraph 26/07/06 38 (-1) 33 (nc) 18 (nc) +5
Ipsos-MORI/FT 24/07/06 36 (nc) 32 (-1) 24 (+3) +4
ICM/Guardian 23/07/06 39 (+3) 35 (nc) 17 (-1) +4
Populus/Times 09/07/06 36 (-1) 34 (nc) 19 (+1) +2

July’s opinion polls largely show no change. Labour’s level of support has remained almost static, despite the arrest of Lord Levy and most of the month’s polls being conducted at at time when the government was facing criticism for not condemning Israel’s action in Lebanon, which polls suggested was highly unpopular in Britain. The Conservative and Lib Dem shares of the vote were also static in most polls, the exception being MORI showing a leap in the Lib Dem that appears to be entirely out of line with other pollsters, and ICM moving from showing the lowest Tory level of support amongst the main pollsters to showing the highest.

Without much change in the headline voting intention polls, there were more interesting changes to the approval ratings of the party leaders. Tony Blair’s ratings have hit new lows, but perhaps more significantly David Cameron seems to have finally ended his honeymoon. YouGov’s poll showed his approval rating falling from +14 to +2, and MORI gave him his first negative approval rating. YouGov’s tracker poll suggested the declines dates from the “hug-a-hoodie” speech, though it is probably a combination of that and the fading away of the temporary boost he had enjoyed since the local elections.

Because ICM are now doing their monthly poll at the end of the month (presumably because they delayed it a week at Easter as bank holiday weekends tend to produce dodgy samples), we’ve reached a point where three of the four main pollsters are carrying out their polls in the final week of the month. I understand that Populus aren’t doing a poll this week, so unless any of the Sunday papers commission voting intention polls during August these may be last voting intention polls for almost a month.

With my usual caveats about the value of averaging out polls and swing calculators, if the sort of shares of the vote suggested by these polls was repeated at a general election it would produce a hung Parliament with Labour as the largest party.

(Oh, and here are the polls since the general election in pretty picture form, from Chris Lightfoot)


Comments are closed.