There is a new Angus Reid poll up on their website here. Topline figures with changes from their last poll a month ago are CON 35%(nc), LAB 37%(-1), LDEM 15%(-1), Others 13%, meaning Labour remain in the lead. On 35%, the Conservative score Angus Reid are recording is noticably lower than other companies.


120 Responses to “Angus Reid – 35/37/15”

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  1. Neil A

    “any suggestions as to what might have boosted them?”

    Barney’s quiz night?

  2. No way will Labour overturn a 5% lead in yougov tonight. After HH I can see a 6% lead on the way.
    42%, 36%, 14%.

  3. @Roland -“Since the Tories are easily traced back to the Kings Party and civil war Royalists. I find the parliamentary supporters of those times very reminiscent of Labour.”

    The roundheads were by far the superior military and political force.
    And IMO, the government could definitely be described as cavalier when it comes to running things.
    So you could be right.

  4. Richard,

    Whilst I too forsee a growing blue lead over the coming months (YG), I reckon it has less to do with Harriet’s pearls and more to do with the fact that the public agree with the government on Child Benefit and Housing Benefit reform. It really is all rather simple.

  5. @NEIL A
    I would think the targeting of people receiving 100 K PA
    Housing Benefit and not giving EU the full 6% that Labour wanted them to have.

  6. This is pretty much in line with my assumption that AR’s “mindset shaping” question asked prior to the voter intent question produces a large anti-incumbent bias. A thumb-on-the-scales adjustment would suggest a Con-Lab tie, and high teens LibDems.

  7. @JULIAN GILBERT
    Very true Julian but the people wanted the King back in the end, along with his Tory friends.

  8. I can imagine the terrorist threat may boost the government. These things seem to – I suppose they make opposition politcs look petty.

    As a semi-labour supporter I found HH’s comments seriously embarrassing, I would not be surprised if they had an effect.

  9. @Colin & Roland – ““In the light of the coverage of the dreadful consequenses of coalition cuts and the impact they will have on “families”. The totally unbiased BBC never shut up about it.”

    Absolutely.”

    I’m afraid that’s claptrap and you are both living in some kind of Daily Mail dream land if you really think the BBC is merely parroting a political line.

    I find it intellectually lazy and exceedingly tiresome when people from left or right accuse the BBC of inherent bias. They’re not – the fact that such people believe they are is merely an indication of their own biais.

    The BBC have reported a wide ranging debate over benefits, giving air time to many organisations who believe the changes will be harmful (including Tory councils) while also giving equal and equivalent air time to those who don’t agree with this, as they are legally obliged to do so.

    I have seen many BBC reports showing people supporting the measures and criticising high benefits claims and I have also seen reports of people claiming they will suffer from the changes. It’s called ‘news’.

    I’m afraid just shouting ‘biais’ at the BBC is one of the more childish political pastimes. I generally expect better on this website.

  10. OldNat,

    Something that might interest you, is that Angus Reid weight differently for Scotland

    h ttp://www.angus-reid.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/2010-10-28_UK_Method.pdf

  11. @ALEC
    My turn to tell you to read the post.

  12. Just hold on everyone – talk of a Labour clean sweep tonight is way too premature.

    So far we’ve had;
    1) A Labour lead from a pollster with a very mixed record
    2) A single twitter rumour
    3) Absolutely nothing else

    Yet people are trying to work out reasons for a Labour surge? Just take a deep breath and calm down.

  13. Alec

    “one of the more childish political pastimes. I generally expect better on this website.”

    Oh dear-then you must visit in a constant state of disappointment :-)

  14. Sorry Alec,

    It’s just me trying to be a cheeky monkey and get everyone to expect a Labour boost.. expectation managament… ;)

  15. @neil A – knowing my predictive skills we’ll now see Labour 4 up in Comres and 10 points clear on YouGov.

  16. Alec

    “Yet people are trying to work out reasons for a Labour surge? Just take a deep breath and calm down”

    Alec -you clearly stay away too long.

    Don’t you understand-a Labour surge is what the majority here live for.

    They get excited at the whiff of all square with Cons & LDs on 12.

    “Calm down” when there are rumours of a clean sweep this evening is like asking them to stop breathing :-)

  17. Eoin

    Yes, they do weight Scotland separately – but (unless I have misunderstood what they are doing) that is to enable them to adjust the Scottish sample more appropriately to fit into the overall UK sample. I assume that might make some difference to the “others” VI compared with pollsters who treat Scots as “variant Brits” ;-) , but not by much.

  18. Eoin

    Sorry. GB sample

  19. Colin,

    Tiocfaidh ar la… :) Our day will come! And then it is you(s) who will stop breathing :) But unfortunately Angus is a false dawn.

    oldNat,

    Pity that’s all they do.. they had a 37% each up ‘there’

  20. Eoin

    “Our day will come! ”

    Of course it will-that is a given.

    The question is when?

    I may well have stopped breathing by then anyway :-)

  21. At this stage, I would strongly downplay chances of a Red lead in ComRes. Three sources where such a rumour if credible would surface would be

    a) Rentoul
    b) Andrew Hawkins
    c) Whelan

    It is entirely possible that Maguire has mistaken Angus Reid for ComRes. ITV would not carry a VI report since thier online contract with ComRes does not ask voting intention.

  22. Eoin

    “they had a 37% each up ‘there’”

    I had noticed! Hence my previous post on the Scottish cross break.

    The LD 7% for Westminster seems roughly what one would expect from other polls showing c. 6% for Holyrood.

  23. Colin,

    Put a bet on 2020 may 16th :) Include the docket in your will failing all else :)

  24. test

  25. Colin,

    Apoligies- May 14th 2020. :)

  26. When is ComRes released tonight? Anyone know, I got work to do and can’t come back on fore the computer to look so a time would be nice :) thanks

  27. Eoin

    If you can’t win 2015-I think 2020 is unlikely.

    There will be lots of momentum in Cons ( ? coalition 2) post the crisis/reconstruction & reform imperatives of this parliament.

    Economic growth-tax revenues-lower tax rates-Big Society …….

    You have to stop it before we have the post 2015 resources & breathing space-or you may be looking at 2025 .

  28. Colin,

    Maybe yes. Hmm… I need a tactical retreat to regroup before I can answer that. I do know that you guys in business only allow PESTs and SWATs to go to three years, so I reckon I could get away with taking the 5th ammendment on that one.

  29. @Colin – “Don’t you understand-a Labour surge is what the majority here live for.”

    Not particularly addressed to you, but it is commonly held that this site is currently heavily weighted in favour of Labour supporters. Are we sure that’s true?

    I don’t have the time I’m afraid (but I’m sure someone out there does) but if we were to count individual posters (as opposed to individual posts) and assign to them a general political leaning, I’m not altogether sure that the idea of a Labour biais would be entirely borne out.

    I know there are a number of pro Labour posters who are very prolific in their output, but we have a good few Lib Dems, quite a few Scots Nats and a goodly number of blues. We have a Green poster but Welsh Nats are alarmingly thin on the ground and we don’t seem to get any NI party representation, but I’m not sure we are as Labour dominated as people often assume.

  30. @Roland

    “What language is that ? Bollox”

    Ah, the one I believe your are fluent in. :-)

    Must go now.

  31. @Colin “You have to stop it before we have the post 2015 resources & breathing space-or you may be looking at 2025 .”

    Far too far ahead for anything to be known. We’ve already got bookies taking bets on the first Tory minister to be forced out by sleaze allegations for example – anything can happen in a week, let alone ten years. For example – imagine if DC developed a health condition and had to retire – or even Nick Clegg. Their personal bond is critical to the coalition for example, and that’s before you start thinking about more mundane events.

  32. alex

    i’m afraid i must disagree with you regarding bias at the BBC

    for many years it has been apparent that the beeb is very pro lib-dem, in fact without the beeb the libdems would have been practically extinct by now, consider how much coverage the beeb has given to the third party even when we were down to less than 5% and a handful of MP’s. even the term “the third party” is a piece of fantastic propaganda from the beeb on our behalf

  33. Accountants of the world help. Is it true that part of the monies recouped from the 2.5% rise in VAT will go to the EU?

  34. Alec,

    I know Eoin is ruthlessly methodical. I suspect he keeps files on all posts and posters. I’ll wager he could rustle up a UKPR VI tally in two shakes of the proverbial…. ;-)

  35. @Eoin

    There are however two failure states with banking Conservative success on Housing Benefit.

    The first is if they fail to get it passed, which has now become a distinct possibility. There’s not a good history for Government’s seen to be weak and unable to get their flagship legislation passed.

    Second, they get it passed. And the effects are what all the housing experts and local authorities are worried it will be.

    Something I’d wonder about is what exactly the effect might be on the south-east marginals of significant amounts of people being moved out of London into them. It’s strange to note that the same people here who commented about Labour being propped up by “welfare voters” now claim that these people don’t vote so it won’t make much difference.

    Conservative success in this policy of moving people out of London to ‘more affordable areas’ could be a poison chalice if it increases their constituency concentration disadvantage. Unless they were to try and manage people’s movements, but then that risks being a Shirley Porter “Homes for Votes” scandal on a national scale.

  36. We do not expect a Labour surge tonight. Mike N & I were having a joke about HH’s gaffe, that’s all. 8-)

  37. Eoin,

    Your question on VAT. You need a tax expert not an accountant. But FWIW I’m not aware of any *direct* impact that UK Vat rise will have on EU, but indirectly I’m sure we need some of the increase to fund any increase in the EU budget.

    VAT is specific to each country. What my company incurs in sales tax or VAT liability in US or EU has no bearing on the UK VAT position or vice versa.
    Worth noting, as I know you’re views on the increase, that 20% is much more in line with Europe than the current rate….

  38. Jay,

    It is good to see you posting. I have been mulling over the tension in Con Lib seats for some time, and have been finding it very difficult to come to an opinion one way or another. The SE, which you raise, is a classic example.

    38,000 resettlers, many either
    a) Too young to vote -or
    b) Not inclined to vote [since CDEs vote in smaller nos.]

    I suspect they will have negligible impact on their own.

    But that does not mean that you are not right to raise them. In the conceptualisation of a broken society, blues have largely been left to derive it from the abstract. IDS to his credit has gone out and taken a look for himself but I do not doubt for one minute that the average blue rinser has a baldies notion what the underclass look like, walk like, or talk like, give or take a few drama productions off the box. Thus, the Chablis liberal left might very well be rocked to see these types of families move into their area.
    _________________________________________________________________
    Two small anecdotes before I proceed with my argument.

    1. The markets area of Belfast is notoriously impoverished. The housing boom allowed the aspirational to sell up and move to the Four Winds area, much more desirable. Now in among Belfast’s aspirational, there is a big divide regarding the desirability of community centres. The people arriving from the poor areas campaigned to have a community centre built. Money was granted, and things were due to proceed. A counter campaign from the wannabe middle class (whom themselves consider themselves lefties) sought to have the community centre project abandoned because they like to walk their dogs on the field earmarked for the building. Thus a divide emerged from two distinctly left leaning groups.

    2. Second anecdote. The same community saw an influx of taxi drivers. Given the political (some might say terrorist) past of some of the new arrivals, their only realistic source of employment was the taxi business. A local campaign was roused to prevent the overnight parking of visible taxi signage in the area, since it made it look scruffier. Again I must reiterate that this is a supposed left leaning [leafy] area.
    __________________________________________________________________

    Thus, my own guess is that any arrival of aspirational M/C or even the underclass into leafy SE constituencies would see a transformation from the conceptualisation of the working class from the abstract to the real. Without STV the overall impact of this might be negligible in the short term. Perhaps it might shake some lefties into the realisation that they are in fact quite conservative, and thus feed into DC’s overall master plan. Or it might, surprisingly, see the formation of communal solidarity of former Londoners and the left residents. Sadly, my own hunch is the former. Mary Riddle has an interesting article in the Telegraph this evening, speculating whether the real net result might be a rise in the EDL/BNP types who blame housing shortage on immigrants.

    Crucially, immigrants will mostly remain in central London. Contrary to what Roland says the vast majority pay rent from their pocket and share in multi-occupancies. Of course, any relocation of the types Roland does describe, into these leafy suburbs, would have a greatly disproportionate affect on the zeitgeist of pre-existing residents.
    _________________________________________________________________
    The formation of group identity is generally agreed to occur along the lines of class, race, and gender. Close proximity, or establishing of ghetto structures is said to accelerate this.

    But I am drawn to the middle one. ‘Race’. In a very loose way I must point out. Never has Scotland, Wales and NI, sung in one voice as they do now. There is something about a blue government that seems to accelerate the formation of a group identity among the poor, and peripherialised. The greatest beneficiary in my view will be the party that can tap into these various multi-faceted new alliances that are forming.
    ___________________________________________________________________
    • One consequence I would not discount would be communal rioting in northern towns. Another would be the development of a right wing consciousness among the ethnic/immigrant labour (small l) aristocracy in London. I do not like to say this, but the hardworking arrivees might very well be disgusted to hear a red shadow government defend the rights of the indigenous to £20k homes, while they slave 70 hours a week to pay for a mattress in a high rise. It gives me no pleasure whatsoever; to say that I think we are witnessing the biggest strategic error of reds since the Iraq war.

    _________

    Hooded- ta

  39. Dispatches on now very, very, powerful. Is anyone else watching it?

  40. @ Éoin

    Here is a finance person – And here is the VAT story:

    The European Commission put forward proposals for direct EU taxes on member states, including a possible EU-wide value-added tax (VAT).

    The proposals are part of a package of options for finding new sources of revenue for the European Union budget.

    EU Budget Commissioner Janusz Lewandowski first said in August that he wanted member states to consider allowing the EU to levy direct taxes.

    The UK, Germany and France have all rejected the idea of direct EU taxes.

    i.e. It was simply a proposal which – to date – has been rejected.
    8-)

  41. @Eoin

    I think you may be reading a lot into things there that don’t really exist.

    People who think of themselves as “Leftwing” can of course be quite conservative when faced with local matters. But this usually doesn’t change their National vote. And it will really come down to who they *blame* for those uncouth lager drinking hooligans invading their nice small town, rather than internal reflection on the ideologies involved. And I doubt they’ll blame Labour.

    I really really do not think there’s some kind of master-plan at play here to transform middle-class-liberals into conservatives by shipping in unemployed to their towns. Mostly because that’s just utterly insane.

  42. Jay,

    Well that leaves me nothing to do but repeat what I say to others who disagree. Let’s hope you are correct!

  43. Colin,

    I think it’s odd to give a blanket label of ‘Labour supporters’ to people who disagree with the cuts or with particular government policies. There’s only about 4 people on here I would consider to be Labour, and I would not count myself as such.

  44. Amber,

    Ta. I thought that 1% of VAT receipts went to the EU. But thanks for setting me straight.

  45. These three statements are 3 of the 4 four most recent posted on YG in relation to Ed Miliband.
    ______________________________________________________________
    1 “waiting his time in the background till this lot get booted out” [positive]
    2. “He’ll come good in the end” [positive]
    3. “Falling flat on his face at the first hurdle” [negative]
    ________________________________________________________________
    The above three statements on tellyougov cannot be measured quantitatively. But if one reads them closely, they are of significant qualitative value. Note especially that the first two comments are coded green [for positive]. This increases their relative value, since we get a chance to measure what they rate as positive. The three crucial words are in post one ‘waiting’ in post two ‘end’ and post three ‘first’. Thus, all three posts make unwittingly reference to the fact that he has not made a good start. To say someone will come good in the end, is an admission that they have not come good so far. To say that Ed is ‘waiting’ is an admission that he has not made an impact. And to crow that he has fallen at the first hurdle, draws attention to his sluggish start. On Anthony’s blog he points out that Ed Miliband’s personal ratings have fallen even among his own supporters. Anthony is quite kind to Ed in saying that this is normal, which whilst true, one would not have expected so soon, especially since there was not much of an uplift in the first place. This is qualitative evidence that his falling ratings are due to the limited impact he is making. The two positive comments in particular show the value of this kind of feedback. Not the stuff of pollsters I accept.

  46. Eoin

    Two things related to what you were saying occur to me. Firstly, it might be interesting to look at the radicalisation of seaside towns over to last three decades or so and how many changed from being safe Tory to Lib Dem or Labour/Tory marginals and the reasons for it.

    Secondly, is there much capacity left? Most of the suitable properties will have been long converted to or demolished for apartments or is already in use for short term housing B&B. The British seaside resort has been in decline for many years and used for decanting various sorts of housing problems for almost as long.

  47. Roger,

    I am sure I told you before that I taught at Skegness Grammar. It was a very stereotypical region which fits the type you describe. Boston a neighbouring town has 25% of its residents who are of Portugese origin. Grantham a little further up the road is notoriously right wing. All in all, the Lincs. Horncastle. Grantham area has stayed right wing. The arrival of the undesrieables has accelerated this. The retirees north of Skeg who own retiree bungalows voted Tory solidly. The fews, attracts a solid Tory voter base. My own guess from having taught their is that I doubt the underclass vote. Make no mistake they are there, they are visible. One only has to wander to “chip shop alley” on any weekend night to see the full horrors. I commuted and thus had the pleasure of gettign to know the daytime visotrs to butlins et al. Many in fact of collier origins or Irish Navvies. Tattoos, piercings, sandpaper brogue but impeecable charm (well i thought so anyway). IT still amazes me when I see the Election night returns of Lincs. go solidly blue every time. Rental capacity is massive- but under no illusions.

  48. Roger Mexico

    “The British seaside resort has been in decline for many years and used for decanting various sorts of housing problems for almost as long.”

    Certainly true of the Clyde Coast resorts in my area – according to a housing official I spoke to.

    Which caused me to investigate the assumed consequences of that for schools. In reality, those pupils first enrolled in a Glasgow school had no worse attainment (perhaps slightly higher) than pupils who had always lived in those datazones.

    Assumptions that specific social consequences will occur are not necessarily accurate.

  49. Angus Reid Poll:

    Not much change in the political weather, within the margins of error in fact. However bright and sunny spells expected with the odd chance of a small POLITICAL shower!!

  50. ALEC

    “@Colin – “Don’t you understand-a Labour surge is what the majority here live for.”

    Not particularly addressed to you, but it is commonly held that this site is currently heavily weighted in favour of Labour supporters. Are we sure that’s true?

    I don’t have the time I’m afraid (but I’m sure someone out there does) but if we were to count individual posters (as opposed to individual posts) and assign to them a general political leaning, I’m not altogether sure that the idea of a Labour biais would be entirely borne out.

    I know there are a number of pro Labour posters who are very prolific in their output, but we have a good few Lib Dems, quite a few Scots Nats and a goodly number of blues. We have a Green poster but Welsh Nats are alarmingly thin on the ground and we don’t seem to get any NI party representation, but I’m not sure we are as Labour dominated as people often assume.”

    November 1st, 2010 at 7:59 pm

    Any more jokes for tonight? Lefties must have an outright mjority on here, they don’t need AV!

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