There is a new Angus Reid poll up on their website here. Topline figures with changes from their last poll a month ago are CON 35%(nc), LAB 37%(-1), LDEM 15%(-1), Others 13%, meaning Labour remain in the lead. On 35%, the Conservative score Angus Reid are recording is noticably lower than other companies.


120 Responses to “Angus Reid – 35/37/15”

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  1. Am I right in saying Angus Reid underestimated Labour and over-estimated LDs before the election?

  2. Julian,

    That was the perception, yes. They also rated others very highly (and still do I note).

  3. They certainly did. Everyone got the LD vote wrong for the most part but I remember them scoring Labour sometimes over 5 points below every other poll.

    Not necessarily what’s happening here though.

  4. So have they changed their methods I wonder or are Labour in reality on 42%? ;)

  5. Angus Reid have shifted their weighting so it is based (where possible) on what people told them at the time of the May 2010 election, rather than how they claim they voted in hindsight.

  6. Thanks Anthony.
    So why do they still have others so high?

  7. Julian,

    Some changes AR implemented prior to the poll deadline in May improved red scores a little. A myth exists that AR were enourmously kind to Blue. This was not always the case, in fact others and LDs were higher than most. From March 24ish (from memory), AR kept blue fairly steadily under 40%.

  8. Just further confirmation it seems that nothing much is happening out there with VI of joe public.

    Yawn.

  9. I rubbished them continually during the election but now I think Angus Reid are our absolutely Numero Uno pollster! Why? Because they present with the results I prefer!!(lol)

  10. Before the GE I referred to AR as alternate reality.

    I’m there now!

  11. Tonight’s YG guesstimate

    Blue 43%
    Yellow 12%
    Others 8%
    Red 37%

  12. 41,38,13,8

  13. 42, 38,12,8

  14. eoin

    is there a prize

  15. Hmmm.. I go for 41 39 13

  16. @ Eoin

    You could offer a few sq metres of peat bog as a prize!

  17. 42, 35, 14, 9

  18. Steve/ RiN,

    No prize…. Polling Predictions are like all forms ofgambling, a mugs game :) Doesn’t stop us though ? :)

  19. That’s good to see. What 6 months ago, were a bunch of Canadian Club soaked idiots, have turned into a highly professional and accurate polling company.

  20. @Roland
    Accurate?
    Thats why every other poller is showing the Conservatives way ahead of that.
    ICM is usually a realistic poll not Angus Reid.

  21. @RICHARD
    I was extracting the Michael from our left leaning brothers and sisters.

  22. Twitter from Kevin McGuire suggesting a rumour in the HoC that ComRes has Labour leading in tonights Independent poll.

    Only a twitter rumour however – we know what they’re like.

  23. @JULIAN GILBERT
    On the previous thread you raise the matter of Tory and Whig being the natural parties of government.
    Since the Tories are easily traced back to the Kings Party and civil war Royalists. I find the parliamentary supporters of those times very reminiscent of Labour.
    This seems odd considering Labour is “new” by comparison with the other parties. The problem I now have is that expanding on my topic will get me moded.
    Therefore I SHUT UP.

  24. I’ll go for 41/38/13/9.

    As for Angus Reid, I am pleased that the current rate of decline in the Labour score will see them reduced to Zero by the next election. Excellent news…..

  25. Having learned, a long time ago from Anthony, that cross breaks don’t tell us anything, I’ll make nothing of the Scottish figures

    SNP 37% : Lab 37% : Con 13% : LD 7%

    except to wonder if the standard question asked “If a General Election [meaning Westminster] were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you be most likely to support in the constituency?” might have caused some confusion in Scotland & Wales since our GEs are only 6 months away, and the question is so similar to the questions asked about the constituency vote for Holyrood.

  26. Alec,

    Maguire is pretty reliable on them. Reds usually get cockahoop when they have heard evidence. A Charlei Whelan tweet will be the final nail.

    ComRes won pollster of the year last week, maybe we should put that result on a pedalstool should it materialise.

  27. I wonder why AR keep going wrong. They are using a panel otherwise they could not implement what AW says they are doing.

    It’s strange though.

    41 40 12 I bow to received wisdom

  28. @ Roland Haines

    AR are brilliant, the most reliable & accurate polling firm in the universe. ;-)

  29. If ComRes really are showing a Labour lead that would be quite a swing over the course of two weeks. Definitely a fillip for our Leftie friends.

  30. Well, if ComRes shows Lab in the lead, then I’m going to plump for YG showing the same. So,

    39, 41, 12

    It’s too good to be true, ain’t it?

    If it happens I’ll have to believe AR too.

  31. @ Mike N

    LOL – If Labour are ahead in AR, Comres & YG, what would be driving it? Harriet insulting people? ;-)

  32. Post CSR we have 4 polling companies views on who leads

    Populus & AR = Reds
    ICM & YG = Blues

    Wil Reds clinch a 3-2 victory tonight? I have visions of the 1989 FA Cup Final ringing in my head. Come on Rushie! :)

  33. Maybe anti-Ginger populism is the way to go?!

  34. @Roland Haines

    That’s good to see. What 6 months ago, were a bunch of Canadian Club soaked idiots, have turned into a highly professional and accurate polling company.

    ——–

    Umm.. so either they are accurate, in which case Labour lead.

    Or they were always inaccurate, in which case you owe a lot of people a lot of apologies. (As, before the GE, you were one of those who trumpeted AR).

    So, go on, which is it then?

  35. 1989 Liverpool 3 Everton 2 [as a young Evertonian I think I cried- but not tonight! :) ]

    h ttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QyLzkGpQdEI

  36. Neil A

    lol

    But HH was not anti-ginger, you know.

  37. Amber

    I’ve always liked HH. She talks my kind of language.

  38. Mmm, AR are definitely off my Xmas card list.

    Fieldwork last Wed/Thu
    They not only count wrongly but they also count slowly ;-)

  39. @ Eoin

    Is that the game when the player we loaned you for a few years, “ar Stuart”, scored twice?

  40. @CHRIS TODD
    You are wrong Mr Todd. My knowledge of polling prevented me from having any idea about You Gov being to kind to Labour or AR being to kind to the Tories. What I did do was take certain Labour supporters to task for pretending that they new better than the professionals. Some of the comments about AR from Labour posters, has only been surpassed for hatred by subsequent posts about Nick Clegg.

  41. Steve,

    But sure isnt it all right. Didnt we give you Cadamateri>? oops- Sorry about that. Windass was more than enough to fill McCalls boots.

  42. @CHRIS TODD
    As a PS Mr Todd, it would never suprise me if Labour do lead. I have been expecting it for a month or more.
    In the light of the coverage of the dreadful consequenses of coalition cuts and the impact they will have on “families”. The totally unbiased BBC never shut up about it.

  43. Roland,

    AR are thoroughly unproven. Until they are, I would have more faith in NBeale’s statisitics, than AR.

  44. I note AR ask ‘in the constituency on the end of the GE question.

    Could that produce the higher Others? I am scratching my noodle on this one.

    Their publicised methods and everything seem very sound.

  45. Roland,

    IF red cheer a lead in Angus Reid it is more as a morale boost, that genuine belief in the veracity of the poll. I liken it to getting beat 2-0 by Chelsea but scoring a disallowed goal. It might not count, but it shows you can’t be that far off.

  46. Roland

    “In the light of the coverage of the dreadful consequenses of coalition cuts and the impact they will have on “families”. The totally unbiased BBC never shut up about it.”

    Absolutely.

    New Leader & all-you keep wondering why they aren’t 5 points clear consistently.

  47. Overall Blues and Reds are neck and neck in the high 30s with Yellows around 14.

    Does this mean that Ed’s strategy of carefully learning the game and maintaining a fairly low key presence is working?

    Best wishes

    Dave

  48. @MIKE N

    “I’ve always liked HH. She talks my kind of language.”

    What language is that ? Bollox.

  49. As a compassionate Tory, I couldn’t possibly begrudge
    the Reds a bit of respite in a couple of outlier polls, after all, some of their posts recently have had worryingly suicidal overtones. :-)

  50. Interesting the sudden turnaround though. If it does turn out to be a clean sweep of Labour leads tonight, any suggestions as to what might have boosted them?

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