There is a new Angus Reid poll up on their website here. Topline figures with changes from their last poll a month ago are CON 35%(nc), LAB 37%(-1), LDEM 15%(-1), Others 13%, meaning Labour remain in the lead. On 35%, the Conservative score Angus Reid are recording is noticably lower than other companies.


120 Responses to “Angus Reid – 35/37/15”

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  1. BT,

    anthony let a couple of the righties off the naughty step, and polls in DC’s favour have reassured others that the public at large back them. Both of these have brought some blues back. There was a time when the number of blues posting was appallingly low, but it is recovering all of the time, which is to everybodies benefit.

  2. Eoin

    Thanks for the reassurance.

    I must say i did find the comment nearly as funny as the one saying the BBC were unbiased.

    I suppose Murdoch is sponsoring the greens now, too. :)

  3. Personally I don’t much care about partisanity (remember that new word!) so long as what people say bears examination. I rather spend the rest of my life conversing with well-informed Communists than take a 3 hour coach journey on the “Tea Party Express”.

    I’ve learned huge amounts from people of all stripes on here. Some have even pointed me in the direction of whole new opinions (Jay Blanc on right-to-buy, Eoin on a whole range of things). I do see what I consider to be a lot of wishful thinking, polls wise, but its pretty easy to “filter out” and doesn’t do anyone any harm.

  4. there have been quite a few dems poking their heads up over the parapet recently

  5. @BT Says – just t confirm for the count if/when it comes – should we count you as a labour or non Labour poster?

    Couldn’t quite make out from your last post.

  6. I’m guessing the Comres was really AR & the tweeter was mistaken; has anybody heard any different?
    8-)

  7. YouGov; CON 41%, LAB 39%, LD 11%

  8. ComRes has just been released but I cant get a confirmation. Anyone?

  9. Comres 35/37/16

  10. Alec

    Not sure how tongue in cheek that question was, but I’m not party-inclined/affiliated.

    Guess you could describe me as having rightwing/traditional views on a lot of things, with a dose of socialism when it comes to caring for the helpless/needy/disadvantaged/underprivileged, etc!

    I may not post again tonight, might have a last look in a few minutes.

    Regards

  11. 3-2,, 3-2, 3-2 da da da da da da :)

  12. Not quite a clean sweep, but it does back up the suggestion that some made that the last YG poll was somewhat out of line.

    It is interesting that while tonight we have had blues criticising reds for getting excited over a poll lead, last night it was the blues claiming that the benefit cuts debate had been won on the basis of one good poll. Sauce for the goose and all that.

    It does provide a lesson though. I did warn last night that when there is a poll showing significant movement we can’t necessarily look at supplementary questions from that same poll as the justification for the movement as it will by definition be from the same sample. If the sample is skewed for any reason, the VI and supplementary questions will both be skewed and so one can’t provide a reason for the other.

    Today it just looks like the big Tory lead was an outlier – the benefits debate hasn’t shifted anything their way.

  13. @Sue Marsh – thanks for mentioning Dispatches… just watched it on 4+1, excellent TV.

  14. BT

    UKIP?

  15. The tables to the Angus Reid poll tell an interesting story: unlike with the last YouGov survey, the demographic profile of Lib Dem support correlates strongly with that of Tory support in terms of gender, region and social class (though not in terms of age).

    It would be interesting to see an “aggregate analysis” of, say, three months’ data for some of these surveys – in order that we can assess with more statistical confidence the demographic profile of each party’s support base.

    Any chance of that, please Anthony?

  16. Well, 2 swallows don’t make a summer but still….

    And all the chaps (& mostly is chaps) who are trying Andy Coulson style management along the lines of: Labour should be 20 points ahead by now etc.
    – you are not fooling me into thinking these polls are good news for the Coalition. 8-)

  17. We are clearly on an entrenched statistical tie now: whichever polling company you claim-for-yourself.

    As @neilA said only an ‘event dear boy’ will change the current impasse.

    Though I would also add to that: the ‘passage of time’ i.e. whatever events happen (or don’t) our wonderful electorate get- shall we say- a little bored and frustrated with whoever is making the decisions once the ‘initial shine’ has worn off.

    For me- outside of leftfield curve ball events- my ‘first big event’ will be locals and devolved administrations. Because “success breeds success” and feeds its own narrative. Until then Labour are a bunch of losers in the perceptions of the uninterested unnuanced electorate.

    So time-and-events it is.

    Until then m.o.e ranges of blue 44-38/ red 42-36 and yellow 15-9.

  18. Rob Sheffield

    “Labour are a bunch of losers in the perceptions of the uninterested unnuanced electorate”

    …….and quite a few interested & nuanced ones too :-)

  19. Oldnat:

    “Having learned, a long time ago from Anthony, that cross breaks don’t tell us anything, I’ll make nothing of the Scottish figures

    SNP 37% : Lab 37% : Con 13% : LD 7%”

    Not unreasonable though: SNP/LAB close, Cons holding on slow decline SLD losing badly. ocialists must be very low at this time and Oters mostly recovering Greens.

    I’d expect Cons to lose not more than one seat, Green to recover most but not all their AS fo FM losses, Socialists to miss this election entirely and Libdem incumbencies to hold but personal vote of retiring MSP’s to lose seats, maybe notcompensated on the list.

  20. the bbc has done great job for labour did you see dimbleby on question time the cuts havent even arrived yet but you wouldnt know it ,if you listened to the beeb— you know what i want from them news not opinion get rid of the analysts and they could save a fortune

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