YouGov’s weekly poll for the Sunday Times has voting intention figures of CON 42%, LAB 37%, LDEM 13%. It’s a higher Conservative lead than YouGov have shown recently, and the highest Lib Dem score from YouGov for a while – but nothing that couldn’t just be normal random variation. What it does suggest is that the continuing row over housing benefit is not damaging the government. Full tables are here.

On that specific issue, YouGov asked again about support for the cap on housing benefit, and found 72% of people in favour (this is much in line with the levels of support YouGov found when the cap was first announced in the budget back in June, althought the question itself was not the same so you cannot draw a conclusion about support going up or down).

The regular trackers are broadly positive for the government. David Cameron’s approval rating is up to plus 15, from a low of plus 8 a week ago and people’s opinion of whether the government is managing the economy well is back in positive territory after falling into negative territory a week ago.

Ed Miliband’s approval rating has dropped to plus 2, as those thinking he is doing a bad job rises to 32%. This is largely following the normal pattern for party leaders – when they first become leader people give them the benefit of the doubt for a couple of weeks. After a while supporters of other parties start giving them negative answers and leader’s net ratings fall.

Impressions of the state of the economy have risen following the announcement of GDP figures – 7% think the economy is in a good state, 70% a bad state. While extremely pessimistic, the net figure of minus 63 is actually the highest since the end of July and start of August… straight after the last lot of GDP figures were announced. The boost in optimism then didn’t last very long.

YouGov also asked some questions about Europe. Unsurprisingly people overwhelmingly thought that Britain paid too much towards the European Union. Attitudes towards an expansion of the EU’s powers to limit government borrowing and impose greater budget discipline were more positive though. 29% supported the idea of gving the EU greater powers to stop countries borrowing too much, including the UK. 37% supported the EU having such powers over the Eurozone, but not the UK. We did also ask a question about David Cameron supporting the economic powers in exchange for a freeze in EU funding, but it was alas overtaken by events.


336 Responses to “YouGov show 72% in favour of housing benefit cap”

1 5 6 7
  1. Roland,

    You are very right. I am tying to have it both ways. I suspect the constituents from the areas I mention will also.

    ______________

    Devon, – My post was a reply to chris lane who is of the opinion, perhaps correctly, that the Conservative party is the natural party of government.

    Devon & Cornwall, Plymouth (specifically) but also the local economy benefit enormously from trident, refurbs and proposed replacement. The five year delay will hurt the surrounding economy badly..

  2. Historically speaking, I suppose it would be true to say that the Tories and the Whigs are the natural parties of government.
    Those horrid vulgar red upstarts have only been around about a hundred years or so I believe.

  3. Julian,

    Upstarts ineed :)

  4. Martyn,

    I have been busy, but I had a look at your material. Very good indeed. I think yellow is beginning to ressemble a 1997-2001, would you agree? In which case, 18% in May 2015, is eminently achievable? A betting man, I am, so I am sorely tempted.

  5. Eoin: Trident doesn’t use Devonport. Even if they were the delay to their replacemtn would only effect Barrow in Cumbria where they are built, not where they are based as the existing subs will solider on. The attack subs are currently based at Devonport (not not Cornwall) . The previous government announced they would move to Scotland so there is no new coalition plan to attack the Celts here (as your post implied). You have previously gone on positively about Ireland’s pacificist stance. Yet you post opposing defence cuts when, as shown here, you don’t know the facts. Me thinks you are trying to have it both ways.

    Base closures in Scotland make sense. Our threats no longer come from Russia but to the South. Therefore Scotland is further away from the action so makes sense to close those bases and keep open those 200 miles closer to Afganistan etc.

  6. Devon, Forigve me. Please could you explain these articles then? This is Plymouth reports “Devonport is the UK’s only base with the specialist facilities and skilled workforce needed to maintain the current and future submarine fleet.”

    h ttp://www.thisisplymouth.co.uk/news/Trident-value-review-finishes-month/article-2331118-detail/article.html

    h ttp://www.thisisplymouth.co.uk/news/Replacement-Trident-good-news-city/article-2731929-detail/article.html

    h ttp://www.thisisplymouth.co.uk/news/end-just-ship-say-unions/article-2777782-detail/article.html

  7. DevonChap,

    This little snippet might interest you. (07/10/10) This is Plymouth.

    “HMS Vengeance, the fourth of the four Trident-carrying Vanguard submarines, is due to refitted and refuelled in Devonport from next year over a two-year period, bringing £300 million to the city’s economy.”

  8. And none of thoise suggests a DELAY to Trident renewal is a problem. It will eventually be replaced (government policy) and the existing subs will need additional maintainence and refits to solider on, which would bring MORE work to Plymouth, not less.

    So how is the Coalition attacking those Celts from Cornwall who commute to Plymouth by delaying Trident again?

  9. Devon, [I’m guessing that post was for me]

    Culdrose (RNAS) will most likely close as well. The propoerty is in line to be sold off… Th eoverall deamage to the south west will be considerable..

    Keep me right on geogrpahy please… Culdrose near Helston that’s Cornawall am I right? :)

  10. Devon,

    An old fashione dKeynesian, might say that a delay is not exactly what the economy needs right now…. :)

    Roland might also help me here but there is a downgrading in the order for the 22 MArk Frigates, which are partly fitted at Devonport…

    All in all 5,000 jobs are set to go in that port alone… I’ll dig around as see the cost for Culdrose :)

  11. DevonChap,

    I could help but chuckle to hear that David Laws constituency is to benefit from the defence spending review with a new contract for Westland. That compnay brought back some memories :) Yeovil prospers (as does Taunton) while Plymouth & Culdrose suffer.

  12. Yes, Culdrose may close but this is hardly a plot against the Celts. Fewer RN ships mean fewer helicoptors so fewer bases are needed. It si either there or Yeovilton The government is cutting defence as the budget is massively over-committend and bases and ships have to go. Harriers are based in England, yet they have been cut. You didn’t mention them as they don’t fit your narrative.

    You may think there is a Kenysian arguments for not delaying Trident but there is a very strong defence budget arguement for doing so, given so many projects are needing paying for at the same time. And sub construction is very poor Keynsian spending since we have only 1 yard which currently has orders for Astutes that will take it well past the current economic problems. Therefore Trident has no stimulus effect.

    I’d rather we had a spiffing navy with lots of shiny ships but we ain’t got the money. And why are you arguing for defence spending when you don’t think we need it (unless you see that the defence of Ireland is that of the UK and you want to keep it on the cheap for ROI).

  13. DevonChap,

    To allay your suspicions about me plucking Plymouth’s Trident predicament out of thin air, I attach a link to a post of mine on the 26 April 2010 [1.31pm]. It has been something I have followed closely since then. Deveport’s constituency is mostly outside Plymouth am I correct?

    h ttp://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2639?cp=all#comment-635686

  14. Devon,

    It is funny that you say there is a neeed for fewer helicopters. They might well be of course, but dont you think Cornwallians will be a little miffed that David Laws’s constituencies’ August Westland escapes cuts, while their (SeaKings is it?) are cut?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-somerset-11587050

    Perhaps it is as you say. Perhaps I simply do not know the facts. :(

  15. Devon,

    It is funny that you say there is a neeed for fewer helicopters. They might well be of course, but dont you think Cornwallians will be a little miffed that David Laws’s constituencies’ August Westland escapes cuts, while their (SeaKings is it?) are cut?

    h ttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-somerset-11587050

    Perhaps it is as you say. Perhaps I simply do not know the facts.

  16. Yeovil a Lib Dem constituency and Culdrose is in a Lib Dems one. Your point being?

  17. Devon, [I am assuming you are referring to me (Eoin)]

    My point being the first one I made. Cornwall is Celtic, and Yeovil is not.

  18. Devon,

    I wonder what George’s old friends in Mebyon Kernow
    will make of their constituents being made redundant in preference of Laws’s Yeovilmen?

  19. Plymouth Sutton and Devonport is entirely within Plymouth and does not include any of Cornwall.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plymouth_Sutton_and_Devonport_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

  20. Given the Cornish vote Tory of Lib Dem, the coalition doesn’t lose out whatever hapens!

  21. Devon,

    Perhaps. But the campaign for a devolved parliament will prosper. George supports that, the Tories do not.

    But as you rightly say, I don’t know the facts, so I will give you the last word on the matter.

  22. @Eoin,

    When you say “Devonport’s constituency is mostly outside Plymouth” what do you mean exactly?

    If you mean the constituency of Sutton and Devonport, then no it is most definitely all in Plymouth. If you mean “constituency” as in “the area that has an interest in the economic stimulus provided by the Devonport dockyard and naval base” then to a certain extent that is true, as some of the workforce will commute from Torpoint, Saltash, Millbrook etc. But the vast majority of the workforce live in the Plymouth City Council boundaries.

  23. On Cornish bases, St Mawgam is also pretty much closed, although it has a new lease of life as a civilian airfield.

  24. Neil A,

    Attached is the parliamentary constituecy map for Plymouth Sutton and Devonport.. I emant your middle see this for an economic assessment to the sub region:

    “That said the Dockyard and Naval Base are still vital
    elements of the economy of both the city and the
    sub-region. Research conducted in 2005 identified
    that its impact on the two counties resulted in income
    generation of £359m and supported over 9,000 jobs.
    Some key economic facts regarding the role of the
    Dockyard and Naval Base to the Plymouth and
    sub-regional economy include:
    ? Devonport Dockyard employs nearly 5,000.
    ? 7,000 jobs are associated with the Royal Navy
    and Naval Base.
    ? A further 7,000 jobs are dependent upon the
    Dockyard/Naval Base.
    ? The Dockyard and Naval Base generate 13% of
    Plymouth’s GVA (income) and they play a keyrole
    in the wider economy of Devon and Cornwall.

  25. @Eoin,

    Don’t quite understand the first bit of your reply?

    The bases certainly play a part in East Cornwall’s economy, but it is dwarfed by the part they play in South West Devon’s economy. It’s simply the demography of our area. East Cornwall is on the whole rather nice, and quite expensive to live in, with a lot of retirees and second-homers. Plymouth is basically a s***hole with tens of thousands of nice, cheap concrete council houses. I say that as a proud resident (it’s lovely in other ways..)

  26. Neil A,

    given that Devon has double the population of Cornwall, and a thriving Tourist industry, I regarded maritme industries as more crucial to the surivial of the Cornwall economy, especially since its fisheries has been in decline for some time.

    Of course, in my Ivory Tower (Belfast), I can only derive this from secondary reading most of which I get from the WestCountry (Newspaper) and thisisPlymouth. The campaign ran by “South West Defence Industries Alliance”, Highlighted the disproportionate damage this would do to the Cornwall economy. Apparently a lot of the skills were transferred from the old shipping/fisheries industries to Devonport.

    __________

    given the stark juxtaposiiton of cuts to Seaking in Culdrose but new contracts for Westland in Laws’s Yeovil constiyuency, I think cornwallians may well suspect that cuts are affeting them disproportionately.

  27. oldnat @ ROLAND HAINES

    “On only 3 occasions have the Tories won more than 50% of Scottish seats.”

    I wonder how many Tories in Scotland can recall voting in the most recent of these elections, considering that the youngest of them is 92 years old!

    They did get more than 50+% of the vote more recently: in 1952, I think.

    My personal benchmark against which I compare their current support in the 17.1% of another former – and once seemingly unassailable – party of government: the postunificaton re-branded DDR Communist party, .

    Which also prompts a comparison In terms of Westminter seats. Scottish Cons have now surged ahead from the low point of NIL to equal the highest historical score of the Communists.

    Yet, had they re-branded and Bavarianised at devolution, they would now be in government in coalition with the SNP, and perhaps even into a second term.

    Do Conservatives who post here ever wonder how such a decline could happen? Whatever the reason, a change of such huge proportions must surely be obvious, must it not?

    They must have been doing something wrong. So what is it? You would think that most posters on this site of all parties would be familiar with the explanation and that it would be broadly accepted across the political spectrum.

    Do those here who teach students have a brief simple answer if they were asked?

    Since the reason must be obvious, it is likely that the remedy is too, yet one doesn’t hear dissenting voices within the party demanding a change of direction.

    Why is this so?

  28. John B,

    Stigmatisation, or as my mum used to teach me… throw enough mud!..

    Virgilio posts Euro results every once in a while. The far right parties are making quite a comeback under populist names… 29% recently in the Austrains (The Norwegians and the Dutch fared well).

    But then rebranding does not always work. Respect? Veritas?

  29. John B Dick

    “Do Conservatives who post here ever wonder how such a decline could happen?”

    No-not much.

    “yet one doesn’t hear dissenting voices within the party demanding a change of direction.

    Why is this so?”

    Because we read nationalists posting on UKPR & realise Scotland is a lost cause :-)

  30. Colin

    “Because we read nationalists posting on UKPR & realise Scotland is a lost cause.”

    Firstly, just because I plan to vote for independence, I do so with regret, and I don’t consider myself a nationalist.

    It needn’t be lost cause under PR, though they are hampered by being part of an English party whose interests are elsewhere. It isn’t as if they had never had a presence in Scotland, they were once dominant.

    People won’t vote SNP for Westminster because they think they don’t belong there. They won’t vote for Conservatives for the SP for the same reason because they are seen as an English party opposed to devolution, though the reality is that in many ways this is less true of them than it is of Labour.

    If Conservatism in Scotland is a lost cause, who lost it? Why?

    When? Late 50’s. You can blame MT for making things worse, but not for starting it.

    Eoin

    If “stigmatisation” was happening to your party, would you just sit back and accept it, or would you do something about it? If so what?

  31. John B,

    When GB began to be stigmatised, I a) joined Labour b) began blogging in his defence

    In my younger days, Stigmatisation of Sinn Féín was commonplace. I done what I observe Libs do now. I dug a trench put on a tin hat, and fought my corner. Revelling in unpopularity, and feeding of the stigmatisation became a fuel for my activism. In 1998, when the eejits (among our own community) who had long opposed us began to vote and join us, I knew something must be going badly wrong, and left.

  32. @Eoin

    In fairness, the stigmatisation of Sinn Fein wasn’t entirely unreasonable.

  33. Neil A,

    Where in my response to John B did I say that it was?

  34. You didn’t. I suppose I was a little uncomfortable with the parallel with the LDs. But I accept that’s not really what you meant!

  35. Neil A,

    John B asked a question (a direct one at that). I answered it with the best available means I could, and I feel with some honesty. The similarity between Lds and SF is their invovlement in Zero Sum politics. The former are not in the habit of advocating/justfying the killing of innocents if that is what you meant. :)

  36. @Eoin,

    Pure kneejerk on my part. My apologies…

1 5 6 7