Sunday Polls tonight

I’m out tonight, so won’t be around to make any posts. We can expect the YouGov/Sunday Times poll at around 10pm, and possibly some other polls in the Sunday papers. Feel free to use this thread to discuss them – I’ll have my own say late tonight or tomorrow morning.


100 Responses to “Sunday Polls tonight”

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  1. ave a good nite out anthony

  2. Interesting snippet I’ve picked up tonight about the the EU budget that might make DC look a bit foolish (I only say might though).

    According to the Lisbon Treaty, no budget agreement can be made without the MEP’s agreement, and they have voted for a 5.9% rise. National leaders cannot simply agree a limit themselves, even if they all agree (which they don’t). Many MEPs (and a good number of national governments) are assuming the 5.9% and DC’s 2.9% are starting positions and that the settlement will be somewhere in between.

    While I’m sure the vast majority of UK voters would be aghast at a bigger increase, they might also be bemused by Cameron’s claims of a great victory if it in fact turns out to be nothing of the kind.

  3. I’m a bit confused really. Half of the criticism of DC is that the 2.9% was arranged months ago. The other half of the criticism is that it’s going to be way more than 2.9% and there’s nothing he can do about.

    Which is it?

  4. Neil A
    Just joined – both I would imagine.

  5. Anthony, any comments on Tuesday’s midterm elections in the USA? I know this is a UK site….but IIRC you made a post about them in 2006.

  6. @BOBBY
    I’m sure we’ll all be discussing them whether AW posts about them or not.

  7. Bobby

    I don’t think the Dimbleby Doctrine applies here.

  8. ON
    I don’t know what that is (fortunately as i regard it)

  9. Bobby,

    Check out real clear politics. It is a cracker site for US polling.

  10. Howard

    QT from Glasgow on Thursday.

    Dimbleby choking off any mention of Scottish issues as everything has to be relevant to the whole UK – like the 15 minutes spent discussing comments by the Mayor of London obviously is.

  11. yougov 42/37/13

  12. Public obviously think DC made a fool of himself over Europe then…

  13. neil,

    fieldwork finished friday 4pm… monday night’s poll will show a euro reaction if at all there is one…
    _________________________

  14. the carrot topped libs will be on 20 tomorrow

  15. RiN

    You are well behind the times. The LDs haven’t been topped by a vegetable for some time now. Good taste prevents me from suggesting when they last had a neep as a leader.

  16. Could just be the normal range of error, but it might be more down to the bad news has come and gone. The pressure isn’t there to depress the tory/lib votes anymore, thus lower Labour and keeping the Tories aloft and the libdems a little higher.

  17. 13% in YouGov and Harriet Harman making a fool of herself in Oban. It’s about time the Lib Dems had a good day… :)

  18. AlanR

    i might join you in that MoE stuff… Myabe the real result is blue 39.5, red 39.49 :) Derived from an MoE of 2% lol.

  19. YG still firmly within the m.o.e range 44-38 blue/ 42-36 red/ 15-9 yellow.

    I can’t see that changing for a very long time….

  20. Eoin,

    Naughty on MOE :-)
    You’ll have em on your case later….. ;-)

  21. old nat

    i feel some slicing and diceing jokes are on the way

  22. Doubt there’ll be a euro reaction.

    One reason why the coalition is still together despite the different views about the EU by the Tories and the Lib Dems is because both parties have cottoned on to what the public thinks about the EU.. not important..

  23. Hooded,

    ‘silly’ me! :)

  24. RiN

    :-)

  25. richard,

    My lovely lad informs me that Duracell is the worse insult she has ever recieved for her red flowing locks… is it bad that i laughed lol?

  26. richard,

    very much a ‘y’ after that Lad…

  27. http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/YG-Archives-Pol-Sun-results-28v2.10.10_0.pdf

    Found it very intresting that the tories have a sizeable lead in the under 24s, i thought that there was too much inclination on here to assume that us lot are raging lefties.

  28. Times Poll:

    A bit overcast for some, brighter for others, but on the whole coming over quite bright and breezy..
    Funny old political weather at mo!

  29. eoin

    i presume your post was to me cos i’m the only richard on at the mo

    but i’m not sure i understand, i think you can laugh at what you find funny, but please please don’t laugh at something that you don’t find funny

    i bought an internet radio 4 days ago so i was listening to radio 4 when i heard hattie’s comment i doubled over in laughter, i then thought “that’s evil but at least its not wishy washy, labour needs to get a few good body blows in”

    then i checked this site and was astonished by the reaction

    politics is nasty and life ain’t fair

    and danny can give as good as he gets or he can really mess hattie up by not responding at all

  30. I am useless at predictions, so here is one you can all pour scorn on – mine for tomorrow’s polls:

    Con 39
    Lab 40
    LD 11

  31. RIN,

    Don’t you know that although you may, on the surface, think we hardened Politicos, we are deeply sensitive and find HH’s comments very distressing?

    Or maybe not.

  32. RiN

    “politics is nasty and life ain’t fair”

    Absolutely true.

    So anyone like HH who tries to be nasty in the wrong way, in the wrong place, because her speechwriter has no experience of life outwith Hampstead can deserve nothing less than what she’s getting.

  33. julian ware lane,

    your prediction is of equal value to everyone elses… I have rarely seen scorn poured from many posters, on all but a few predictions, most of which are usually mine lol :)

  34. @neil A – “Public obviously think DC made a fool of himself over Europe then…”

    That isn’t actually what I claimed. I was only indicating that the deal claimed by Cameron is not actually a deal, and if the budget rise ends up as more than 2.9% (which is what a number of Tory right wingers are now saying will happen) Cameron’s positive spin will look somewhat premature.

    I do agree with you on the ginger rodent gag though. The actual line was quite funny in it’s construction, but I always fall back on my default setting that says gags at the expense of your opponents looks are not really acceptable. Attack beliefs, actions, statements or policies, but we can’t help what we look like.

    On polls – tonight’s results look promising for the Tories, but I suspect will turn out to be a bit of bouncing around. Things generally appear to be a bit static at the moment and I would imagine they’ll stay this way for a while yet.

  35. I really do find the double standards on here confusing, it seems there is some sort of insult code. HH makes a cruel reference to person’s hair, and is treated as a naughty auntie, I compared Alastair Campbell with Goebbels, and got the lefties into a hissy fit. Subjective this humour thing. :-)

  36. Ken

    “Subjective this humour thing.”

    Indeed it is. HH thought she was funny, Ian Grey agreed (if I identified him correctly as laughing and clapping on the platform.

    Now, that’s funny!

  37. Couple of interesting issues surfacing in tonights press.

    Education – Tory sources (including Gove) have indicated they might go back on their pre election pledge to prevent any extension of selection in schools. This will be an fascinating issue for the coalition partners as the Lib Dems are dead set against and many Tories are fervent believers in selection.

    Housing – Ernst & Young have now declared the UK housing market as being in a double dip. Net lending fell from £1.6b in August to just £112m in September – a pretty sharp slow down.

    Anecdotal evidence I’ve picked up locally suggests that abolishing HIPs has led to a lot of speculative sellers placing properties on the market (as it is now much cheaper to do so) and the housing benefit reforms are making landlords a bit jittery about future returns.

    Amongst all the possible economic issues it would be a bit tragic if two government policies helped crystalize another market crash – especially when UK banks are are still vulnerable to asset price falls.

  38. @Ken – For what it’s worth, as a (non Labour) leftie I would agree that comparing Campbell with Goebbels is more appropriate than calling a ginger haired person names.

    The former was presumably based on a reputation for bending facts – someone’s actions for which they are responsible for. Poking fun at someone’s hair colour is just a bit naff.

  39. Ken,

    You fail to understand. Blues get out of bed, they’ve done it in a nasty, and heartless fashion. Reds make unpleasant comments about politicians from other parties, it’s ‘funny’, ‘no big deal’ and ‘all a fuss about nothing’.

    How long have you been on here?! ;-)

  40. @Alec….Do you know if Ernst and Young commented on commercial construction? There appears to be a mini-boom here in London.

  41. I actually thought that the gag was quite funny & if Boris or Jeremy Clarkson had said it, that would have been the end of it. However, it was uttered by THE most PC person on the planet, so that’s a different matter. As someone said earlier it’s the usual champagne socialist doctrine of;’ Do as I say, not as I do!’
    However I’m sad that the Scots are so thinned skinned nowadays that their feelings are hurt so easily.Poor dears. Whatever happened to the William Wallace spirit?

  42. I thought Harriet was quite funny and she’s not a natural jokester.

  43. I have to agree with Alec about Cameron’s comments on the EU budget. They seem deeply unwise to me; why use such definitive language when a deal hasn’t actually been agreed on?

    “What we’ve done is guarantee, with the support of other member states, that this is 2.9 per cent,” he said. “They have given their word – 2.9 per cent and no further. That’s the word they have all given. That’s the word I have given.”

    If it does increase more than 2.9%, he’ll look a bit silly (not that I would mind *too* much if that happened ;) )

  44. Hooded Man………Clarkson got pilloried for his description of Gordy, my friends and I thought it was just a bit of fun…..if you can’t stand the heat etc.

  45. How people look & behave are all fair game for jokes. Cartoonists do it all the time. Remember Spitting Image? One of the funniest caricature/satire programmes ever.

    @Alec
    I don’t see a reduction in house prices as a negative at all. In fact it is part of the solution, enabling 1st time buyers to once again enter the market and get things moving from a sensible base. If a few BTL landlords & people who lied about their incomes on their non status mortgage application forms, get their fingers burnt, frankly that’s their problem.

  46. Robert in France

    Remember Jeremy Clarkson’s “one-eyed Scottish idiot?”

    As to “thin skinned”. I’m sure that the 19th century Punch cartoons about those outside England had you rolling in the aisles!

    The comment reveals far more about the attitudes of the metropolitan elite than it does about the Scots – and that’s why it’s important in terms of Scottish VI. In the same way that Clarkson’s comment, the Dimbleby Doctrine and other examples of patronising behaviour from London have a cumulative effect. All of them trivial in themselves, but significant of the attitude of the UK elite.

    Hence good for my side, and bad for Unionists (in terms of political advantage) but really sad that relations between the countries of the UK are damaged by the stupidity and ignorance of the Con/Lab/LD elites (they’re all the same really).

  47. ken

    “Clarkson got pilloried for his description of Gordy, my friends and I thought it was just a bit of fun”

    Why am I not surprised?

    Just like all those jokes about black people and Jews were “just a bit of fun” too?

  48. Oldnat……….I believe freedom of speech transcends pressure group politics and walking on eggshells, life’s too short.

  49. Ken

    “I believe freedom of speech transcends pressure group politics and walking on eggshells”

    So you support the freedom of Abu Izzadeen to say whatever he likes?

    Indeed life would be too short, if your philosophy was followed!

  50. Oldnat
    Here’s a joke involving a Scotsman that you might like:
    3 Englishman walk into a pub and see a Scotsman at the bar. The 1st Englishman says “Watch me wind him up”. So he goes to the bar and says “Hey Jock, your St Andrew was a Poof”. “Oh, is that so?” says the Scot, and carries on drinking. The Englishman goes back to his mates and says he can’t understand it. The second Englishman says “I’ll show you how to do it”, and goes to the bar. “Hey Jock, your St Andrew was a transvestite poof”. “Oh, is that so?” says Jock, and carries on drinking.

    The second Englishman goes back shaking his head in bewilderment. He’d expected the Scot to kick off. So of course the third Englishman says that he’ll show them how to do it, and goes up to the bar. “Hey Jock, St Andrew was an Englishman!”
    “Aye, so you friends have been telling me….” :)

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