Sunday Polls tonight

I’m out tonight, so won’t be around to make any posts. We can expect the YouGov/Sunday Times poll at around 10pm, and possibly some other polls in the Sunday papers. Feel free to use this thread to discuss them – I’ll have my own say late tonight or tomorrow morning.


100 Responses to “Sunday Polls tonight”

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  1. Years ago, when I were a lad, I was taught that sticks and stones would break my bones, but words would never hurt me……I have lived a full life and I have no reason to argue with my granny. So, it is advice that I would happily pass on to others, anyone with half a brain would take Abu Izzadeen as the fool he is, I would pass on to them, my granny’s advice.

  2. My previous post was for Oldnat.

  3. Pete B…………How dare you ! :-)

  4. :)

  5. Old Nat,

    No fan of Voltaire then?

  6. Pete B

    Have to admit that I laughed at that.

    It’s one of the reasons that I used to deconstruct this joke with my classes when I was dealing with the Wars of Independence.

    As the English army crossed the border, a Scot appeared on a hill and challenged the finest warrior that England could produce. He went out to meet the challenge, but never returned. The Scot reappeared and challenged the best 10 – same result. When the best 100 are sent to meet the next challenge, one severely wounded soldier returns gasping out “Sire, it’s a trap. There are two of them!”

    It got a laugh, but the process of getting them to analyse national stereotypes, concepts of superiority/inferiority etc was fascinating. I found kids to be far more sophisticated in their ability to understand these ideas than Ken’s pals in an English pub would ever be able to comprehend.

  7. Ken

    “words will never hurt”?

    A common aphorism used to help kids to deal with the bullying at school which they will experience throughout their lives.

    Of course, only a fool actually believes it.

  8. I must admit that I just prefer a laugh, whether it’s at our own expense or someone else’s, rather than deconstruct it all.

    Mind you, perhaps that is because I am from the dominant culture in the world, so I don’t have to be chippy about stuff.

    You may possibly not agree, but I think that the British Empire (i.e. including the valuable help of the Scots, Welsh and Irish) was the greatest political organisation that the world has seen, in terms of the benefits for the world at large. So if anyone wants to make jokes about us, I can laugh with them, because we have given them the right and ability to do that.

    G’night all.

  9. Rather like the photo for the Harriet Harman story on the BBC website. The moniker on the podium declares.. “Because Scotland Deserves Better”. Scotland certainly does!

  10. Oldnat………On the advice of my granny, thank you for that……….! :-)

  11. @Pete B,

    I don’t believe that any empire is truly a force for good. About the best we can say about the British empire is that it’s brutality and ill-effects were exceeded by, and less mitigated within, most other empires of the past millenium.

  12. Pete B

    “I am from the dominant culture in the world”

    I’m not clear whether you are American or Chinese.

  13. Ken

    You’re welcome. I’m sure your Granny was far wiser than you. :-)

  14. A relevant quote from Jon Stewart today, although I don’t think he was referring to people getting hot under the collar about squirrels.

    If we amplify everything, we hear nothing.

  15. Julian Gilbert

    “If we amplify everything, we hear nothing.”

    I presumed that was the basis for the Dimbleby doctrine – except that he is selective in what he amplifies to ensure everything else is drowned out.

  16. Oldnat……….you’re all heart, but she would have turned the other cheek, not so wise, IMO, however, like me, she wasn’t perfect. :-)

  17. Pete B

    “I must admit that I just prefer a laugh, whether it’s at our own expense or someone else’s, rather than deconstruct it all.”

    My job was to teach people to think – including thinking about their reactions. Did none of your teachers do that?

  18. Ken

    So we’re both perfect! :-)

  19. Ken

    I misread your post. I assumed you were saying “unlike me” – which would have been funny.

  20. @Oldnat………..As a Sassenach, and a Tory, and in the spirit of the Union, goodnight. :-)

  21. Ken

    I wish you a good night too, but am far too nice to wish you that in the spirit of the Union. :-)

  22. samhain shona duit! ;) Happy haloween to one and all :)

  23. Eoin

    Thanks for that. I spent part of this evening carving a neep (turnip for those outwith Scots speaking areas) lantern for my daughter.

    Pumpkins are, of course, simply part of US cultural imperialism! :-) (though much easier to carve).

  24. Eoin

    Thanks, and happy Halloween to you and yours. I spent part of this evening carving a turnip (to use the English term) lantern for my daughter.

    Pumpkins (while much easier to carve!) are, of course, symbols of US cultural imperialism :-)

  25. test

  26. I wonder if labour will have any extra bounce in the polls when Ed Miliband’s new baby arrives within the next week or so, also will be good to see how harriet harmen performs against clegg at pmq’s instead of deputy pmq’s when Ed is on leave, I reckon harmen will easily out perform clegg as she did earlier within the week at the deputy pmq’s.

    [Carols – I don’t think it works like that. It will be Cameron vs Harman again (basically, if the Prime Minister is away and the DPM is deputising, then the Leader of the Opposition also sits it out and sends their deputy. However, if the Leader of the Opposition is away it doesn’t give the Prime Minister the right to skive off and avoid questions! – AW]

  27. @Alec
    Amongst all the possible economic issues it would be a bit tragic if two government policies helped crystalize another market crash – especially when UK banks are are still vulnerable to asset price falls.

    I believe its high time we looked upon house prices as a separate entity rather than a litmus test for the state of the economy.

    By any sane assessment property is hopelessly over valued and has been supported almost entirely by the buy to let market.

    Now that’s as good as gone, the fact that most first timers can’t get on the ladder is applying the brake it always used to before people started buying houses rather than a pension plan.

    In the long run I believe a drop of at least 20% would be good for a nation that is so hopelessly obsessed with property values that we’ve priced our children out of the market.

  28. @ Old Nat

    “Thanks, and happy Halloween to you and yours. I spent part of this evening carving a turnip (to use the English term) lantern for my daughter.

    Pumpkins (while much easier to carve!) are, of course, symbols of US cultural imperialism”

    I haven’t carved a jackolantern in years or really even celebrated Haloween. Brings back memories. Is there trick-or-treating in the UK? I do know that Haloween originated in the UK. I admit that I haven’t thought of pumpkins as a symbol of U.S. cultural imperialism.

    I wonder is Groundskeeper Willy keeps turnips around for carving……

  29. @ Old Nat

    ““words will never hurt”?

    A common aphorism used to help kids to deal with the bullying at school which they will experience throughout their lives.

    Of course, only a fool actually believes it.”

    I’ve actually been using that saying lately (in the context of the U.S. media response to a recent number of gay teenagers committing suicide and arguments over the role of hate speech and discrimination). It’s not that I fully beleive it but that I want to point out that actions are usually far worse than words.

    Words can and often do hurt people. And I think that when kids are bullied, the simple retort that words can never hurt while sticks and stones (and did anyone mention guns?) do is unhelpful.

  30. @Robert in France & Neil Preshner

    I don’t disagree that UK house prices are too high and need to be pegged back in relation to income levels for all sorts of reasons. However, it’s not just buy to let – the fundamental issue is too few homes being supplied with population and household dynamics outstripping supply. After all, buy to let merely allocates housing via a different ownership route – if there were sufficient homes, rents would fall naturally and this would provide a less desirable economic return for the owner.

    The other key point is that housing is a fundamental part of the UK consumer economy. Any relative value adjustments, however warranted, need to be done slowly and incrementally. Rapid price movements (in either direction) are destabilising for the wider economy, however desirable they might be in the long term.

    @Ken – they didn’t mention commercial property, but there has been some significant investment in recent months. This is good news – banks have been sitting on truly massive losses on commercial property (easily enough to precipitate a second banking crash) but they have avoided crystalizing these bad debts by refusing to call in loans where they know the borrower can’t redeem. If commercial property prices are rising that would be the best single bit of news the banking sector (and the rest of us) could have. It might be enough to head off a crisis if domestic property values tumble.

  31. Old Nat,

    ‘Pumpkins (while much easier to carve!) are, of course, symbols of US cultural imperialism’

    Hollowing out a neep. A Herculean task.
    A symbol of Scots determination :-)

  32. YG results up

    it would appear from the supplementary questions on the economy that the news last week on GDP has been credited to the Coalition parties, and this may have percolated through to VI for all. On managing the economy well, back to more positive than negative (when was last poll to say this?)

    Also HB headline cap still very popular, and PR management of the cap, rather than the changes across the board, seem to be good news for coalition and bad for Labour.

    EdM’s net approval rating also taken a hit as some previous DKs have moved to negative.

    Eoin –
    blue 41.51 – 42.34%
    red 36.75 – 37.48%
    yellow 12.52 – 12.76%

  33. Nice little story this morning on the Times and Guardian websites about Tory Cabinet minister lobbying on behalf of a company that donated £40K to his parlimentary office.

    The lobbying was by Andrew Mitchell and relates to trade issues in Ghana concerning the company. The reports suggest it was asked for specifially by the donor and was questioned by Mitchell’s civil servants as it was outside his ministerial remit and clearly they felt it was inappropriate.

    It’s a small story politically, but in my view highly significant in content. To me, it shows that the Tory links with major business donors are a ticking time bomb for them and that Cameron’s positioning over MPs expenses and sleaze in general was just that – positioning and no more.

    We will keep getting these stories, and a lot worse,until we finally wake up and decide democracy is for individuals and not companies and ban all large donations and corporate sponsorship of politics and politicians. In due course there is going to be a scandal like this that will really hurt Cameron as he has been extremely slack about reforming the way his party deals with business funding while making a simultaneous pitch as the Mr Clean of British politics.

  34. @hooded Man – I’m always a bit nervous about taking underlying questions from a poll as reasons why the VI question in that same poll has moved substantially.

    If the VI results are a random variation, then this is likely to be based on sample variation, which would also inutitively skew the results for any supplementary questions.

    Of course your analysis could well be correct, but in reality we won’t know from looking at these supplementaries and will have to wait for further independent polls to see if this was just an outlier.

  35. Neal

    “By any sane assessment property is hopelessly over valued and has been supported almost entirely by the buy to let market.”

    Absolutely.

    The other major factor which caused the bubble was the one which destroyed world banking & triggered the recession -cheap credit & lax lending.

    The cheap credit is still available-but the lax lending has gone. Sensible deposits & loan to value ratios have returned.

  36. Alec,

    Agreed.

    Hence my use of “it would appear” and “this may have”

    Supposition rather than assertion…

    ;-)

  37. The property market wouldn’t need buy to let mortgages if we hadn’t sold all the public housing in the 1980s and replaced it with….buy to let!

    It was all part of the story spun by We Are A Grandmother that the market would take care of everything if only there were no silly controls…..

    …..well, well, well look what happened….

    and if we’d not intervened and spent all that money avoiding a depression then our net borrowing ratio would have remained below the G20 average….

    and oh, something perceived to be true….the public think the growth in third quarter was due to coalition policies….doesn’t make it true….

    …..it’s often perceived that the earth is flat…..or that markets take care of everything….

    In the FT yesterday there was a lengthy analysis of the coalition figures on spending in schools…..

    Spinning sugar makes candyfloss…. I just hope they’re enough NHS dentists left after we’ve been on this diet for five years…..

    A better joke than rodents with Titian locks…..Ms Haman should really know better…..

  38. Didn’t the house price bubble also infect countries (the US, Ireland) with ample housing supplies? Isn’t the only difference that their crash had a lower floor (in the case of the US, virtually no floor at all) than the UK one?

    I am really not so sure that building 2m homes in 1995 would have prevented what happened to house prices. It would have had an effect, sure, but I still think the bubble would have happened. It just would have meant that the housing price crash would have seen 50% rather than 20% shaved off of values.

  39. John Murphy,

    “and oh, something perceived to be true….the public think the growth in third quarter was due to coalition policies….doesn’t make it true….”

    Absolutely. But this is politics and polling. Isn’t the ‘perception’ of the electorate everything?

  40. I certainly don’t think that the Q3 0.8% was caused by coalition policies. But that’s not really the point. The opposition was claiming that the announcements of cuts would depress growth and lead to poor Q3 figures. If they had been below expectations, it would have been blamed on the government. The fact that they’re good suggests that the government has a better handle on the shape of the economy, optimism amongst consumers and companies and the scope for “replacing” government spending with other growth than they’d been given credit for.

    Noone doubts that in the short term borrowing money and spending it increases growth rates. The difference of view is over the sustainability of running a debt economy over and beyond the economic cycle.

  41. Hooded Man – ” Isn’t the ‘perception’ of the electorate everything?”

    On this website is certainly is, and it does need mentioning as often as possible. We’re here to talk about the public opinion of policies, governments, parties etc – whether they are right or not should be a discussion for elsewhere.

  42. AW – that’s exactly what I meant by ‘this is politics and polling’
    :-)

  43. I spent part of this evening carving a neep (turnip for those outwith Scots speaking areas) lantern for my daughter.

    Pumpkins are, of course, simply part of US cultural imperialism! (though much easier to carve).

    OldNat’s actually wrong here as most English people actually call them swedes. Those puzzled by the idea of the Scots carving tiny lanterns out of (garden) turnips can be reassured that this is not another example of Scots’ frugality.

    They are called turnips in Ireland, the Isle of Man and some of the English bits of what the Romans would have called Upper Britain – the North; parts of the Midlands, Cornwall.

    To those Americans worried by the idea of the Southern English hollowing out and setting fire to Scandinavians; they are what you call rutabagas. And you have been watching “The Wicker Man” once too often.

    To confuse the issue even more I think Manx farmers call mangelwurzels, rutabagas.

    Turnips are harder to carve than pumpkins, but can you imagine any thing really scary with an orange face. Not even Judith Chalmers. (US readers please substitute Snooki).

    And a happy Hop tu Naa to you all. :mrgreen:

  44. “can you imagine any thing really scary with an orange face”

    http://www.eclectech.co.uk/kilroysilk.php?

  45. Anthony

    Sorry, I didn’t mean to follow up your warning about relevance to polling with a comment about root vegetables. It just came out that way.

    [Those about to explain the relevance of root vegetables to the current cabinet, citing the old Spitting Image joke, can stop that now]

  46. AW – hilarious.

  47. neil A

    you are right on the money as regards the houseing bubble, it was more to do with colletive insanity than market forces. i’m not sure that todays prices are justified by supply and demand. i think it’s more a case that folk have become accostomed to high prices. supply and demand is a very inexact science, i myself have found that it is easier to increace sales by putting up prices, which of course is insanity however…………labour prices also don’t follow S&D rules all the time, epecialy at the top and bottom end of the income scale

  48. Hooded,

    thank you kindly. reds may hope harriets words don’t cost them, or scores could get ugly next week. i am hoping this is an outlier…

    thi smight point the way towards a

    43, 36, 12 soon enough…

  49. john Murphy: We are a grandmother might have been right, but the experiment was never tried. The most serious control on the housing market is the fact that it is not possible to make new ones without a government permit, which is severely rationed. The market cannot respond.

    Neil A: The Uk housing market has not crashed because it has not been pushed so hard as others. Two things are needed, a fall in prices and forced sales. Prices have fallen but on the whole owners have sat waiting. There is not a huge pressure of defaulting mortgagees compelling sales, not least because interest rates have crashed. Home owners are quite possibly in better financial positions on average now than pre crash as their payments are less. Interest rises anyone?

    neil A again: it isnt collective insanity. I need a house. I mean, I NEED a house. its not like a sports car. So I spend what I have to. There arent enough houses, so the price just goes up and up until everyone is spending their last penny…

  50. @ Anthony & Roger

    Excellent witty posts 8-)

    As nothing particularly interesting seems to be happening with VI, despite the anticipated effect of the CSR, a little light relief from some posters obsessing about a %age point here or there is much appreciated, thanks.

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