New YouGov Welsh poll

There is a new YouGov poll of Welsh assembly voting intentions for ITV. The topline figures, with changes from the last monthly poll, are as follows:

Constituency: CON 19%(-3), LAB 44%(nc), LDEM 9%(-2), PC 21%(+2)
Regional: CON 18%(-2), LAB 40%(-1), LDEM 9%(-3), PC 23%(+4)

At both regional and constituency level Plaid take second place from the Conservatives. On a uniform swing (and assuming Labour retake Blaenau Gwent now Trish Law is standing down) this would result in the Conservatives losing 4 of their 5 constituency seats to Labour (Monmouth would be the only hold). Add on the regional seats, where the Conservatives would get back some of the seats they lost at a constituency level, and the final result would be Conservatives 10 seats (down 2), Labour 31 seats (up 5), Lib Dems 5 (down 1), Plaid 14 (down 1) – giving Labour an overall majority for the first time.


519 Responses to “New YouGov Welsh poll”

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  1. @EOIN, MIKE N & OTHERS.
    This Housing Benefit argument is only going to end one way. Overwhelming support of the coalition. Diverse people like Simon the Daft and BJ can say what they will but, the average guy and gal bitterly resent ” the something for nothing” beneficiaries of Labour policies. These people are certainly not lifelong Tories, but they are fed up with what they firmly believe is a benefit culture gone bananas. On top of all this, as I say weekly and AW has said today, whom, apart from us lot listen to more than 5% of the blather.

    It is my personal opinion that Left wing support of benefits which favor strongly only certain groups (excluding the genuine sick and disabled ) will damage Labour.

  2. A small swing of 2% leaves a 4% gap. So I think some of these almost minor ‘events’ like BJ can bring about such a swing, subliminary style, but we won’t probably identify it. I gain the impression that incompetence plays very badly with the voters. If a mistake is made, voters will punish the wrong doer even if, incongruously, they benefit from the mistake.

    By the way I suppose we all noticed the pathetic spinning by No 10 prior to the EU meeting. Now that really will pass by with no effect. on the polls. What astonished me was how many journos fell in with it -lazy s*ds, as usual.

  3. In May Blues aeraged 38%, climbing to 40% (June) 42% (July), from where it began to fall back, and now averages 40%

    In May Reds averaged 33% climbing to 35% (June), then 37% and now it avergaes over 38%. In fact the last four polls for red have them on 39%

    In May Yellows averaged 21%, falling to 18% (june, then again falling to 15% July, then 14% then, 13% until recently we have seen a batch of 10%s. On rounding the gap between blue and red is 2%. In June it was 7%.

    By any measurement 4-6million people have changed there voting preferences in the last 5 months. Now reductionists can, if they choose to do so, pretend that this is insignifcant. Reductionists can, if they choose to do so, say that ‘events dear boy’ have yet to occur. But the truth of the matter is that not far of a quarter of the Uk voting public disagree with them.

    If you factor in all three parties core vote (which account for about 50%) then 1/2 of floating voters have indeed floated in the last 5 months.

    Now if half of floating voters have floated and it is only 10% into a electoral cycle, our very adorable reductionists have to get used to the fact that events dear boy events are left right and centre, daily, plentiful, and infinite :)

  4. @HOWARD
    Very much agree, a genuine cock up is bad juju. Voters don’t like governments who look as if they are incompetents. In fact back in the day when Butskillism
    ruled, the main trust of both sides was selling “competence”.

  5. @ Anthony

    In terms of affecting public opinion, “nothing matters very much, and few things matter at all.”
    ——————————————————–
    Really? So all the time, money & effort invested in press/ public relations (aka spin) by politicians is wasted? And they are all too dumb to know this… ;-)

  6. Roland
    I am sure you are right but whether populism works right through to the election is another matter. If the populist exposes a deep run resntment already felt, i believe it can succeed but i think voters take a long hard look at GE time (if they are going to bother at all, a third don’t).

    Clearly this time in May the verdict was ‘well we just don’t know – any suggestions?.

  7. Amber, see my post just above your own.

  8. @Roland- talking sense, well done, don’t be thinking of a care home for another couple of years.

    @Anthony- Don’t give up all hope, yet there seems to be a renewed initerest in politics in the young. In the school where Lady DTEP works the sixth formers requested a political debating group, to invite speakers in etc..

    As for the HB harming the conservatives, I would be surpirised if this was the case. You only need to look at the last government to see that specific issues rarely affects the outcomes of elections. Anyone remember the iraq war protest? yet Labour still pulled it of at the following election.

  9. Amber

    I believe the effort is for their own supporters, to safeguard or improve their own futures.

  10. @Roland
    I understand your comments and to a degree agree with them.

    But the issue of HB etc has the potential to gnaw away at the gov over time IMO. And moreover it’s an issue that the gov cannot ‘win’ because if they stick to their plans people will see them as intransigent/inflexible/unfeeling and the epithet ‘nasty party’ may once again be attached to the Cons. On the other hand if the gov ‘bends’ it will be perceived by some of the electorate as ‘weak’. Actually I personally would see such flexibility as sensible pragmatic government.

    And although VI currently shows big support for these social security cuts, over time the impact of them will permeate the public’s minds and I imagine we’ll see some drop off in the level of support.

    But maybe I’m wrong.

  11. Since May, (less than 10% of an electoral cycle)

    Blues have grown in support by an eighth
    Reds have grown in support by a third
    Yellows have halved the level of support they attract

  12. @roland – “It is my personal opinion that Left wing support of benefits which favor strongly only certain groups (excluding the genuine sick and disabled ) will damage Labour.”

    It’s a question of timing and impacts. I agree the general sentiment is positive at present, but all things change. I’m not an expert on housing policy, but those that are are saying clearly that the various policy announcements, of which HB reform is just a part, will create real financial pressure on many people (in particular the under 35’s) and many believe we will also see an increase in total HB payments as social rents rise sharply and many more people become eligible for housing benefits. I’m not taking this from left wing campaign groups, but from independent bodies and some Tory run councils. These noises should be heeded by Osborne.

    Today’s populist policy becomes tomorow’s millstone if we find we are spending more money on housing benefits yet we are still seeing homelessness and families in B&B accomodation. This was at the heart of the ‘nasty party’ image of the past and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a re emergence of this moniker if the policies are as poorly thought through as many seem to suggest.

    If we really lived in a world where the benefits bill was spent entirely of idle loafers living in mansions with no interest in getting a job I would be the first to complain. However, this is the rhetoric that the Tories have convinced themselves of – it won’t take long for the real image of most benefits claimants to come through if these reforms are as bad as the experts suggest.

    I stress I’m not making a prediction here – I really don’t claim to have great knowledge of the social housing and benefits areas. It’s just that I’ve been around long enough to know that there have been many times where governments have trumpeted new policies and found they don’t work as intended.

  13. I’m unsure how the HB debate will end….but I know we’re only at the beginning of a process that is bound to test the coalition’s popularity…..

    The rise in air tax…long planned about to hit; VAT in January; NI in April – all these will impact upon those not deeply engaged in political discussion threads like this…

    The HB thing it seems to me is like the CB thing it speaks to a feeling that these policies aren’t as clearly thought out and thought through as presented….

    The tendency by finance ministers to schedule detail behind annoucements is one that’s well established in the public mind….largely thanks to Cameron and Osbourne with their effective line of attack on Brown’s budgets….To be hoist on that same petard may take less time that many think given the public cynicism about politiicians.

    This fairness debate may be irksome and may be partial on both sides but it may be defining. I’ve a feeling that Labour and Conservatives are happier to be defined by it than the LIbDems who’ve most to lose from being perceived as unfair…..

    So though my views are pretty much known I think it’s an interesting moment…..I come back to it again, it seems the LibDems are losing their USP….and that may be corrosive….

  14. @Alec

    Whatever my views are on the individual measures I agree with you that the cap is a red herring. It really only has an effect in London and a very specific sector therein. Either the London-based journos are only seeing life from a London perspective or the coalition has steered them down a blind alley. The reported rise in the housing benefit bill due to a rise in social rents is also a red herring as that is simply a transfer between central govt to LAs or housing associations.

    IMHO the really big change is raising the age threshold from 25 to 35 for single people to be eligible for the higher rate for a s/c one-bed flat rather than one bedroom in shared accommodation.

    I have given up discussing the merits of individual measures as this is not the place for it. However I do agree with Roland that for the vast majority who are not on HB some of the numbers highlighted will breed resentment as they tighten their own belts.

  15. @AMBER
    I know you like cars, as do I. You must have noticed the modern car adverts. They tell you absolutely sweet fanny adams about the car. No idea re choice of engines, no idea re performance, no idea re engine size, just a generally silly picture and a load of horlicks as a narrative. No facts no figures (only fuel comsumpion cos they have to) just rather childish spin. Why in the end does someone buy the car, not based on the advert surely? It is the same with the Dave Motor Works or the Miliwagon.

    As for the Cleggspiel Auto, they have been taken over by Dave Motor Works.

  16. @Eoin Clarke

    My wife calls me an adorable reductionist, you know, although I’m not sure she means it as affectionately as you no doubt do!

    Look, you know I fundamentally disagree with your linear, simplistic interpretations of opinion polls and no doubt we’ll lock horns again on the subject, although playfully and good humouredly I hope. However, let’s not bore the hind legs off other contributors on here by endlessly rehearsing our well worn arguments. I’m tempted, but I value my mental health for now as I prepare for the big Second City derby this weekend (Villa v Birmingham).

    In the meantime, can I suggest, as a bit of much needed therapy, that you relax to the sound of my favourite Ulsterman (not you, I’m afraid Eoin); the very great Van Morrison. It would do you the world of good.

    I bid you a pleasant weekend!

  17. I think the car advert analogy is interesting because a lot of people settle on a make and even a model for a very long time, only if they get a serious problem or a long list of niggles they look at something else.

    It is all about moods and feeling good rather than telling us the underlying facts which we might not understand, and probably don’t care about, as long as we get from a to b in comfort and style, and possibly have some pleasure in the journey.

    Doesn’t this sound familiar?

  18. @ Roland

    LOL :-)

    Yes, indeed – Car adverts now sell a lifestyle, not the car. When a man purchases the 7 seater people carrier, he is buying sunfilled trips to the country with a lovely wife, well-behaved children & friends to share the barbeque with.

    Politics hasn’t quite gone the same way yet. When David Cameron’s team tried to sell the Big Society sizzle, he unexpectedly found his activists & voters asking “Where’s the steak?”

    So, as you mentioned & I agree, competency is back as the key to political success in this managerial era.

    They haven’t quite got politics into the aspirational lifestyle category; I am sure the Coalition will keep trying though because it comes straight from the Mandelson/ Blair playbook that they are following. 8-)

  19. Eoin,

    “The yellow sample is always going to be prone to the most fluctuation one would think, given that compartively speaking they are a tiny portion of the sample”.

    This is incorrect. To the extent that you can apply sampling theory to the quota system YouGov use to sample, the closer a ‘true’ proportion is to 0% or 100%, the narrower the absolute sampling error (aka MoE).

    Hence, at the moment, we would expect less absolute fluctuation in the LibDem polling score (notwithstanding any genuine change) and slightly more in the Labour / Conservative scores, due to sampling error.

  20. @Cyberkarst
    If this is your first post, welcome. If not, then a belated welcome.

    Interesting comment too.

  21. Re HB cuts being popular with labour voters outside London.

    Ed M is not really expecting a GE before 2015. His team have ‘calculated’ the HB cap will not be popular enough to boost Coalition support in devolved elections or council seats outside London.

    It could be very unpopular in London.
    Firstly, with employers (including councils) who will have a smaller pool of workers to choose from.
    Secondly, with the voters who are directly affected.
    Thirdly, with those who live in the suburbs, who suddenly find their rents are rising & competition for housing & jobs is fierce because of the influx of people pushed out from the center.

    Ed M has “calculated” that being against the HB cap could help Ken win London – which would be a big boost for the left – & Boris J appears to agree that the effects of the cap will not be popular with Londoners in general. 8-)

  22. Nick H,

    I could put you in touch with Much better music than that! In Irleand this weekend we are celbrating Haloween. Is it celebrated in England? So its all bonfires and fireworks this weekend. My contribution is that I have to find a few ex Qunago employees to burn at the stake.

  23. Fwiw, (very little in my view) Michael Portillo saying last night (to Pamela Bordes ex-clinch) that Boris (the unexploded :) as Jay Blanc calls him) is deadly earnest in his ambition to become Conservative leader at some point.

    If the string of mishaps is registering even with such people as Mike N’s good lady, who no doubt have better things to concern themselves with… then how will it affect the confidence levels of those who now begin to realise that every move they make creates unforeseen problems?

    The choice of Prince’s The Cross, and Radiohead’s Street Surrender sounded to me like a subliminal message and a cry for help from Nick Clegg’s Desert Island.

  24. Cyber..

    This aint your first post, I know but welcome anyways!.

    Try to think logicalyl about the poitn you have just made. LD support has declined 10% in 24 hours. For reds that would be a 3.9% dropp in support for blue a 4.1% drop.

    When i say fluctuations, i mean as a % of their support base… which is maginified by 4 for a party attracting not much over a quarter fo the support of blue.

    Do you disagree?

  25. @Don’t-Tell-Em-Pike

    The Iraq War turned a hugely popular government into a distrusted but tolerated one.

    The Conservatives are starting out as a distrusted but tolerated government.

  26. @Jay Blanc Good point, how long were Labour in power before the Tories first managed to overtake them in the polls?

    I do have a strong feeling that for the Tories the only way is down. As for the LibDems I think they may have reached rock bottom. At first glance the Coalition policies and statements make sense until the detail is examined. I am sure that over the next few weeks/months we will see the polls around 35/45/10.

  27. @Don’t-Tell-Em-Pike “specific issues rarely affects the outcomes of elections. Anyone remember the iraq war protest?”

    Iraq was more complicated than that though. Tony Blair was much more connected to Iraq than the Labour Party in people’s minds. C had little different policy. LD had their problems with voting (i.e. little chance of majority govt) but did see a massive upswing in traditionally Labour wards.

    I was aware of people voting Labour as they somehow felt that was an anti-war vote due to their sitting MP. It did seem bizarre to me that someone would vote Labour to get anti-Labour policy but then I’ve never understood how pro-EU One-Nation Tories could then campaign for Thatcher. Likewise, I can’t understood campaigning for pro-CND, ardent socialist Michael Foot, then a few years later supporting Tony Blair.

    There seems so few core policies between these stances that if people were being honest, I’d expect Heath-ites to campaign for New Labour and Ed Milliband-ites to concede a name change to the SDP.

  28. @Billy Bob – “…and a cry for help from Nick Clegg’s Desert Island.”

    Oh I see – I misheard the programme title and thought Nick Clegg was on ‘Deserted Island Disks’…

    [BTW – his choices sounded a little manufactured to me – a team of youthful advisers putting the choices together to make their man sound cool..]

  29. Oh Alec, a bit unfair. Nick is quite cool. I came away thinking that I would enjoy a chat with him in my local about his family holiday.
    Though If he was an architectural technician or something I would probably choose someone else to design the extension.
    Very typical public school psyche… he is being a brave boy.

  30. Eoin, surely that is a result of only displaying Yellows results to 2 signficant figures rather than anything else.

  31. AMBER STAR

    At my recent meeting with Ed and his team at a Fabian event, it seemed to me that they were pretty open minded about when the next GE would take place. There’s a feeling that there’s a 50-50 chance that the pressures on the Lib Dems through 2011-12 could brignthe coalition tumbling down. Ed is also (so I understand) having a series of very private meetings wit minority parties and certain Lib Dems with a view to reviiving the rainbow coalition should the time be right. All very sensible would have thought.

  32. @john Murphy – “…..I come back to it again, it seems the LibDems are losing their USP….and that may be corrosive….”

    Absolutely agree. I posted something similar several times on previous threads.

    I am struck by the somewhat bewildered anger I see on the faces of Lib Dem MPs when they come under scrutiny. I thought Ed Davey’s face was actually quite funny last night on Question Time when people were criticising some of the governments measures. As with Nick Clegg, the look says ‘we can’t be unfair/untrustworthy/break our election promises – we’re Liberal Democrats. This is all so unfair”.

    I don’t think they fully understand quite what they have done with their reputation, but it will gradually sink in over the next 4 years or so.

  33. Joe,

    Yes good point.. :) Hmm…. you could very well have hit the nail on the head… Hooded was able to pin yellows to 12.4 (yesterday) and sub 11.5% todday… but “if” as Anthony says, decimals are to be ignored, then yes that would make a good point…

    almost worth getting an average of yellow over a few days..

  34. @ Eoin

    IMO, just shows how fickle some people are, bloggers present excepted! Lab have done absolutely zip policy wise in the last few months and somehow have appreciably lifted their poll precentages. Is it that the voting public like radical change in theory but in practice they suddenly suffer from “squeaky bum syndrome” when faced with the real thing?

  35. Steve,

    Human thought at its most basic comprises to two things.

    What we don’t like (critique)
    What we do like (vision)

    Humans can effortlessly elucidate what they dont want, and dont like at length. They offer critques on the braodest range of topics imaginable.

    Ask them what they want instead, and most humans get confussled.

    I think reds silence is predicated on this basic assumption. By keeping quiet and letting human negativity take its course, they are hoping for a slow burn effect.

    Every now and then, I try to prise out of people what that would like instead, very very posters go there. Alec does with finess, regularly, but others are more reticent. Chauvism used to dictate that “a woman doesn’t know what she wants” I have heard it remakred on here by one of our reverred posters :) but as for what men want, i am really not very sure they know what they want lol. The only person that can describe in fine detail what he wants, is my son, and that is simple. He wants everything. :)

  36. Steve,

    Sorry for the typos “Chauvanism” and “very very few” :)

  37. @Eoin,
    Lib dems have clearly diminishing poll rating has benefited both blues and reds 4 percent blue,7 percent red.Does this make the likleyhood of yellows jumping ship from the coallition far less ,than if their poll rating has risen ?? Were the boundary changes put into effect tomorrow and an election held thereafter,surely they would just hand blues a working majority ?

  38. @Steve
    “…Lab have done absolutely zip policy wise in the last few months”

    Lol

    But then I thinks, DC/GO/WH did that for almost five years!

  39. Michael,

    Good question.
    A strong yellow would have fed Clegg’s ego even more- there is no telling what that would do to hi sambitions.

    • Your main point is a good one… return to yellow will hurt red more. But even the slightest return from blue will hurt blue chances of a majority. If I was a betting man I’d consider the best likelihood, another parliament of these two parties (blue yellow) as the most likely.

    • As a bare minimum yellows have a million spare votes to play with… That is about 1/6 of their 24% so 4%. Conceivably yellows could get 20% and keep all of their seats. The votes Clegg gained them were to widely spread… Thus, as a ball park figure yellow will be gunning for an 18% return and under a seat reduction system (600 say) about 45-50 seats. I think they will most likely achieve that. There is little alternative for those red leaning voters in those constituencies. A recent Ashcroft poll showed a rewind of 10% back to yellow, when the impact of their vote to their own constituency was made clear.
    __________________________________________________________________
    1. Now if one considered about 22 Nat. (accounting for a loss of approx 4 after seat reduction), that leaves red and blue gunning for 525-30ish (remember speaker is one, and Caroline Lucas)….

    2. This probably makes majorities harder to get since as a proportion the Nats 22ish will climb in importance as will the yellows. I have always thought a seat reduction increases the likelihood of more coalition government. In short, I can’t see either party as it stands getting an outright majority under the 600 seat system. Not unless things change dramatically in the polling VI.

  40. Eoin

    Interesting to see yolu say that the reduction is constituencies is likley to produce more HPs. Is that with or without effects of AV?

  41. @DAVID B
    Having recently been one of the criminals who did go to prison, I have no desire to go there again having been released. Therefore I have no wish to start any partisan warfare with you or anyone else. Your comment (once again) that Labour hope the coalition will fall apart due to LD colleywobbles, is a possibility, but quite unlikely. That Labour could step in and form their ridiculous “rainbow coalition” with the IRA ect fills me with hope. For this reason, if that really is the best Miliband can come up with as a future strategy, Cameron will be in power untill he surpasses Gladstone for old age.

  42. @Jay Blanc- I respect you, really I do, but the point i was trying to make is that these policy’s like the HB one seldom stay in the general public’s mind for long and so I do not see this one affecting the coalitions popularity. To support this I gave the previous example of the iraq war as one instance and in the interest of being non-partisan I can give another from the previous Conservative government. Poll Tax. This was VERY unpopular, caused massive anti goverment demonstrations (though not as big as the iraq war protest) yet the party was still returned to power. I think Labour are making a real mistake by trying to flog this horse.

  43. ROLAND HAINES

    Good to see you back – you are still hopelessly out of touch and wrong but just occasionally I’m sure we can all benefit from having to reflect on how someone apparently educated and apparently living in the same country can possibly have such different and odd opinions from most of the rest of us.

  44. Thank you for the welcoming comments – this is clearly a much more hospitable website than certain others I’ve ventured on to. (But, yes, I have posted here before.)

    Eoin- I think Joe answers your question to me. If you want to understand the point I’m making, imagine you wanted to conduct a survey of households establishing the proportion who *don’t* have TV sets. Let’s assume the true figure is around 1%. If we conduct a truly random survey, we are unlikely to get samples showing this to be outside the range 0 – 2% (depending on the sample size). Certainly we’d be very unlucky if we got a figure of 3% or above. However, let’s now assume we want to measure the proportion of households who have Digital Satellite. Let’s say this is 50%. It would not be unusual to get surveys showing this to be in the range of maybe 45 – 55%. It is simply more difficult to measure something accurately where you only have a 50% chance of getting it right by pure guesswork.

    Now, in a sense you’re half-right when you point out that even a relatively small change in LibDem share is a larger proportion of the original share. However, this change – if it is entirely due to sampling variation – is not more likely to be a greater proportion than a Conservative / Labour change also caused by sampling variation.

    Sorry if this is too heavy for a Friday.

    PS, In return, can some explain to me why they put a ‘@’ before everyone’s name. Is this some new grammatical convention I’m not aware of?

  45. Mike N,

    even without AV.

    I think a basic principle that the more seats that are reduced, the less chance landslide majorities materialise.

    If say yellows at Nat instead of the c.83 seats this time round end up with just 72 next time around… that is still 12% of Non red blue. Ie 12% outside the grasp of majority territory. It is a reduction of 0.6% in non big two representation.

    BUT

    Given that the overall seat reduction of about 7.6% is occuring… in net effect there are 7.5ish seats less for the big two to quarrell over.

    Nats and Libs seats are fairly concentrated.. knock a few off us in Ireland or Scotland but still aint voting Tory.

  46. Cyber,

    Only blues do it.. they all technophobes :) Your name wont be most endearing [tongue in cheek all of it]. I have no freakin idea. :)

  47. A Re-post:
    I am a Conservative voter in Scotland who happens to believe that Scotland should be independent . There are no other parties in Scotland who represent my centre-right viewpoint. I don’t, however, feel that I am ‘intellectually challenged’ because I vote Conservative and I am not a Unionist. I think that if Scotland were to gain independence, then there is certainly room for a centre-right party and it would probably gain a lot more support than the Conservatives currently do. The Conservatives are seen as ‘English’ and the SNP will be seen to have served their purpose once independence is won. Having made a reasonable job of governing the SNP will IMHO be picking up a lot of nose-holding Tory votes in May as a way to keep Labour out – I don’t recognise the overwhelmingly socialist Scotland that many posters on here seem to envision, but I am in the highlands, rather than the central belt.
    On the cuts: My partner came home yesterday, having had a meeting at work (NHS) about budget cuts, which are about to be implemented. These cuts are due to losses from the Icelandic banking debacle and nothing to do with overall government cuts. They have been told that the NHS trust do not really care how these cuts are made and that jobs will go and salaries will be cut (sack and re-employ staff on a new contract). They actually think that it will be a good thing if the service provision deteriorates, as people are less likely to use a service if it is bad, thereby reducing costs further! He pointed out that his scientific job pays just over the average wage, my manufacturing management job pays just under and we have had no benefits such as child support, tax credits etc. yet will be expected to take a hit of a couple of hundred pounds a month (along with my lack of pay rise for the last two years). These cutbacks are parallel to other government cuts and are probably being implemented now in order to ‘lose’ them in the general cacophony of the cuts narrative.
    We are just the sort of people who are in agreement with cuts to benefits and find it shocking that the cut off point is £26k – I would argue that if the HB cap only affects seven families in Scotland, then it is set too high; it’s more than I earn, in what is considered a good management job (well paid for up here). Éoin’s point about single people sharing accommodation is one that makes perfect sense as a way of reducing housing pressure and costs.
    We are also about to lose the two RAF bases in the area (1in 5 jobs in Morayshire) and there are great efforts to try and save at least one of them, but I do not understand the SNP point of view on these – presumably there would be no military presence in Scotland if independence were gained.

  48. @DAVID B
    Well I am glad we can agree about something at any rate. This site is very under represented by Tories at the present time, or indeed pro-coalition Liberals. The Tories seemed to drift away after the partial victory at the GE. In the intrim more and more Labour supporters flock to the site.

    ‘@ GARY GATTER
    The forcast for the Tories you make was about the way I saw things a month ago. Despite cuts, the promise of cuts and the best efforts of the BBC, the same boring old numbers keep getting churned out.
    So, now I think you are wrong. Do you make the comment because you actually see the evidence, or are you just anti – Tory ?

  49. A Roland Haines has just asked a politically themed question at the close of GQT (Gardener’s Question Time) from Somerset… either it was our very own Colonel Plum or he has a very plummy namesake in cider country.

  50. Somhairle
    Not seen your post(s) or before so welcome. I’m your local meeter and greeter (for now).

    good post.

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