New YouGov Welsh poll

There is a new YouGov poll of Welsh assembly voting intentions for ITV. The topline figures, with changes from the last monthly poll, are as follows:

Constituency: CON 19%(-3), LAB 44%(nc), LDEM 9%(-2), PC 21%(+2)
Regional: CON 18%(-2), LAB 40%(-1), LDEM 9%(-3), PC 23%(+4)

At both regional and constituency level Plaid take second place from the Conservatives. On a uniform swing (and assuming Labour retake Blaenau Gwent now Trish Law is standing down) this would result in the Conservatives losing 4 of their 5 constituency seats to Labour (Monmouth would be the only hold). Add on the regional seats, where the Conservatives would get back some of the seats they lost at a constituency level, and the final result would be Conservatives 10 seats (down 2), Labour 31 seats (up 5), Lib Dems 5 (down 1), Plaid 14 (down 1) – giving Labour an overall majority for the first time.


519 Responses to “New YouGov Welsh poll”

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  1. Alec it really is ‘Osborne’ you know.

  2. @Éoin….Compassion is commendable but it tends to drift into indulgence if not carefully controlled, remember, cruel to be kind, tough love, etc. Some people simply can’t behave in their own interest, and in turn, that affects us, so Neil A is right, IMO. :-)

  3. Alec- Good to see you back

    NI reverse,
    VAT increase
    Inheritance tax,
    CB tinkering

    I disagree with all of them, as would most informed humanists.

    But here is the crucial point- How mcuh of the public give two hoots about the intricacies. Headlines Schmeadlines, and GO does that better than anybody. It gives me no satisfaction, but the polls don’t lie (Hmm…).

  4. @Eoin,

    Shoe sizes up to 6 1/2 (for men/boys) can be zero-rated. He’s some way to go yet surely?

    And given that shoe size is a very good indicator of future income, isn’t it egalitarian that he should be penalised to compensate the minnows? (That’s a joke by the way…)

    And 5-6 pairs of trainers in a year?!

    Having said all that, as I say I think there is a very good argument for widening the exemptions. And given that average shoe sizes (and clothing sizes generally) have increased dramatically since the war, there is a particularly strong argument for redrafting the size maximums for the Children’s Clothes Zero Rating.

    @Alec,

    Surely it’s not hard to require people to reapply for their Child Benefit. And it’s not strictly true to say we tax people individually. If my wife applied for Jobseekers Allowance and refused to say who she lived with, or what my income was, she’d be told where to go. Child Benefit is a benefit. Why should it be exempt from the rules that apply to other benefits?

  5. Neil A,

    Have you ever had a wee boy? Gees. Most of us are 11s, he’s most likely to end of 13s. He’s heading on for the size of his mam. Kids these days grow quicker.. I’m no scientist so i cannot explain it but suffice to say that the adult size of shoes (men) is outdated by half a century.

    His shoe size changes at least twice a year, and he kicks his gutties into the ground (don’t worry its a running issue in the Clarke household ;) )

  6. @Eoin,

    “Any informed humanist would object to CB tinkering?”

    Think about the absurdity of that statement for a second!!

  7. Alec and Eoin
    As Eoin points out it’s 41 39 11 and that’s all there is to it..

    I think it’s pointless toi imagine that morality has anything to do with votrers’ opinions, andI I have the polling facts on my side.

    But when they start having to pay more for those trainers and shell suits (and golf club memberships) watch the polls change.

    We are mostly Waynes and Coleens now or aspire to be same.

  8. @Eoin,

    I am a size 12er myself, so I know what you mean. Fortunately my mother earned reasonable money so clothing costs weren’t an issue (so far as I’m aware – if they had been I would have told her to reduce her fag consumption from her habitual 60 a day).

    I don’t think I’ve ever had more than two new pairs of trainers in any given year of my life though. I think you need to instill a greater sense of fiscal responsibility in the wee man, personally! Each pair of new trainers should be 80% financed by dad, 20% financed out of pocket money / Christmas-Birthday money…… (or, as you’re a Labour man, 60/40??)

  9. Neil A,

    Not so. Take a moment to cosider the verb. It was chosen carefully. As Alec has stated in the ast, quite eloquenty, he favoured the abolition of CB. It is not change per say, it is exactly what I said on the first instance. That old Chelsea boss springs to mind- the one before Mourinho

  10. Neil A,

    If enough women poste don this forum, they would back me on this I am sure. They aint the old versatile Dunlop trainers, but these flimsy ones… In our day I am sure you recall not being allowed to soil your unifrom or wear out your footwear in the school playground, but these days they let them run riot… Nowt I can do.

  11. The answer Alec is going to be to stop all CB after the 1st child for everyone.(For new claimants) or to return to taxation of the ‘Family’ rather than the individual.

    I have asked many times why the state in the 21st century, on an overcrowded island, is sponsoring an increasing birth rate. It is something in which the state should have no role.

  12. I too favour the abolition of child benefit, or at least restricting it to the first child. But the bombast of the “no informed humanist” part coupled with the triviality of the “tinkering with CB” part genuinely took me aback.

    It’s a bit like saying “No right thinking person could agree with renaming the Post Office Tower the BT Tower…”

  13. @Eoin,

    You genuinely might find this link useful I hope

    h ttp://www.jdsports.co.uk/product/le-coq-sportif-annecy/61299/

  14. Neil A,

    Not so.

    Tinkering = piecemeal, half baked, chop/change, ill considered, not thought through… etc etc…

    As far as the £45k threshold goes, i am on record as saying I’d have it as £38ish K. But the Yummy mummy thing, was clearly not thought through. If you read alec’s post again, for the first time, we now know that the treasury were not informed about it.

    Tinkering was an apt choice of verb, I’d say. And yes humanist is an appropriate as a noun. Afterall, these are children we are dealing with. And you being a compassionate Tory, must dabble in a bit of humanism, I’d venture to say :)

  15. Eoin

    “kids these days have humongous feet”

    You do know that there is a positive correlation between large feet in children and academic attainment, I presume? (though it isn’t a causal relationship! :-) )

  16. I’m more lapsed-Baptist than Humanist, but I certainly don’t hold paying child benefit to Mrs Richard Branson or Mrs Bernie Eccleston amongst my core beliefts…

  17. Neil A,

    My son would divorce me if I purchased those.

    You might find this link useful [bambino sizes]

    h ttp://www.jdsports.co.uk/product/nike-t90-shoot-lli-astro-turf/30494/

  18. @eoin

    Claudio ranieri. Excellent at rebuilding teams, as he did in his first spell at my club Valencia. But not with the ready made variety. Note his disastrous second spell with benitez’s league championship winning valencia. And also his ultimate failure at chelsea. I see he’s now doing similar things at roma.

    I’m not sure where this analogy is going…

  19. @Oldnat,

    It goes broader than that. Did you know that almost every major male celebrity has larger than average feet? Even if their height is average, their feet will be larger than average. Wierd I know, but I read it on the internet so it must be true.

  20. RAf

    Thanks :) They called him the tinkerman… Forward woud score a hatrick that dude would substiute him the following week.

    Change for the sake of change. :) Or squad rotation as its called.

  21. I’ve given up you lot – not even a glimmer of SOH.

    God save us from earnest politicos.

    I was so disappointed in the reaction to BJ. Bunch of wooden pathetic ignorami, the lot of them..

  22. @Eoin,

    I’ll be extra cheeky here, but you know that all donated goods bought from charity shops, of any type, are VAT exempt don’t you?

    I speak as a stepfather who encourages handing down, buying second hand and eBaying despite having sufficient income to kit the fussy little beggars out in all-new if I thought it was warranted.

  23. OldNat,

    Forgive this next comment it is tongue in cheek

    Neil A,

    Are you of Scottish heritage?

  24. Sir John Sawers stating that SIS withdrew cooperation from US counterparts in Iraq for a period of 18 months over differences in treatment of prisoners.

    He is seeking to draw a line under speculation among members of the commentariat about UK complicity in torture.

  25. Even worse, Danish.

  26. The Nation with the tallest people is now Holland, they put it down to growth hormones from agriculture draining into the water supply, and residual effects in food. It’s in the hormones Éoin. :-)

  27. Neil A,

    same thing depending on what part of Scotland you are… Shetlander’s are all baldy with pronouced jawlines :)

  28. @Billy Bob,

    Wow is that true? That’s a pretty searing indictment of the Americans.

    In other news, is anyone else rather stunned by the decision to jail the “Tracey Emin art forger” for 16 months. For what? Selling cr*p to people who thought it was great, because they like other cr*p by what they thought was the same cr*p artist, and couldn’t tell one lot of cr*p from the other, and still have the cr*p that they bought, which still looks like it did when they bought it, but they’re just miffed that it’s not the real cr*p..

    I thought Ken Clarke said prison sentences didn’t work, and that we should jail people except for violent offenders etc, etc.

  29. The Labour vote has held up surprisingly despite a poor couple of days on Tuesday and Wednesday. Bodes well for Ed M once he gets his act together.

  30. @Eoin

    Pah. Shetlanders are Norwegians. My ancestors’ emigration from Denmark is a little more recent – 19th century to Africa, then 20th century Africa to England.

    I am certainly baldie. My jawline is less than impressive though.

  31. @Howard……….I can’t believe it, but I agree with you. :-)

  32. Oldnat,

    If he is on will help me out… The first Norsemen (Danish) raided and settled in various scottish islands… A C4 DNA documentary traced their lineage right back to the Saxons.

  33. Neil,

    contrary to popular myth, Danes were vikings also, not just Norwegians lol.

  34. Eoin

    It makes little sense to interpret “Norsemen” (especially if they meant those from modern Denmark)/”Saxons” in modern terms.

    As far as I am aware, they are closely inter-connected tribes.

    Let’s not go near the Schleswig-Holstein question!

  35. @eoin

    Sorry, i’ve only followed part of the thread. Yes they’ ve called him the Tinkerman, or a devotee of the rotation system wherever he has lain his hat.

    But a more apt description of him is as a crisis manager. Someone able to successfully carry out radical change and lead his charges on the road to recovery. But who in an environment where only minor or less extreme alterations are needed wantonly swings the axe to disastrous effect.

    The tinkering is never the problem. It’s only if it gets out of hand and destroys internal harmony, where less radical methods could achieve the same ends.

  36. Different groups of vikings went to different places. Those who settled in Eastern England were for the most part Danes. Those who invaded Shetland were quite definitely Norwegians….

  37. Neil A

    And the Viking Rus who brought civilization to the river areas of Russia largely came from modern Sweden.

  38. Just reading a few older comments about independence. Notably, English independence. There are of course a few parties calling for such a thing but you ain’t gonna get it voting for the Conservative and Unionist Party (or indeed any other party of the Union). Bit of a core belief.

    Might as well campaign for more immigration by joining the BNP.

  39. Starchief

    Obvious point – to rational people. However ………. :-)

  40. Starchief,

    And the Conservative party support for the Union stands before any political expediency. Of all the parties, the Tories stand to gain most from independence or greater devolution for Scotland and Wales, yet they defend the union. A rare case of principle over politics?

  41. Old Nat,

    I expect to feel the full force of your wrath… ;-)

  42. Hooded Man

    Not at all.

    Those who feel themselves to be political Brits will try to protect their nation – as I do mine. Starchief was simply making the point that I have made (often!) that those who want English Independence are out of their (political) minds by voting for any of the UK political parties.

  43. Hooded Man

    The odd thing about England is the willingness to be ripped off by London, but to blame the Welsh, Scots and Irish for their problems!

    I was interested in the discussion on London and HB that has so exercised the metropolitans on here so I went to the DWP data for November 2009 (the latest data easily available).

    They don’t actually give the numbers that I’ll give here, but they do contain (by UK region) the following data for GB areas –

    Cost of Housing Benefit
    No of Households claiming HB
    % of households claiming HB

    From that, one can work out the average cost to the UK taxpayer of Housing Benefit per household in each area, which are

    UK Region, HB cost per household
    London, £16.78
    GB, £8.79
    NE Eng, £8.01
    NW Eng, £7.74
    W Midland Eng, £7.45
    SE Eng, £7.10
    Scotland, £7.00
    Wales, £6.73
    SW Eng, £6.60
    E Eng, £6.60
    Yorkshire & Humber, £6.53
    E Midland Eng, £5.75

    As usual, London siezes a huge proportion of UK spend – in this case, almost double the GB average.

  44. Old Nat,

    I thought there would be an anti-Tory reaction :-)

    Given the levels to which political cynicism have stooped, I have always thought it odd that the Tories have continued to embrace the union with such gusto, when they have been driven out of Scotland, have no presence in Norn Iron, and have struggled by in Wales. Labour love the union cos they’d have little chance of governing England on it’s own. But the Tory support always seems borne from a sense of altruism that is not always associated with their image :-)

  45. It’s not so much altruism, simply a core belief.

  46. David Orr of the National Housing Federation on Osborne’s deternination that social housing must be funded by increases in rent to 80% of market value:

    This will mean in some cases that tenants will need to earn in excess of 54K, otherwise they will be trapped on benefits. (A strange definition of social housing.) He is predicting that the reforms will inevitably lead to a higher benefit bill.

  47. Hooded Man

    I was talking about the Brits. Hence, my admiration for Amber & Barney (hope he’s enjoying his conference with his fellow Brits) being so willing to transfer resources from this part of the world to London, in order to protect the unity of their nation.

    As to the Tories, altruism isn’t quite the word that I’d have used!

    Might be true of their few supporters here, but most GB Tories are in SE England, and are simply happy to draw resources from elsewhere to subsidise their life style. In former times it was called economic Imperialism – maybe it still is.

  48. Old Nat,

    As a Scot and Celt I don’t blame S, I and W for any problems. I’ve benn down here for 20 years and it’s only the last five years that I’ve heard any English person say anything about cutting off the sweatys, and the only reason that happened (and I kid you not) is a couple of DM
    headlines about the Barnett formula, and about the Scots always being anti-English (andy Murray, world cups, incident in Aberdeen, etc).

  49. Hooded Man

    “cutting off the sweatys”

    Not a term I’d ever heard before. I presume it’s offensive?

    Back to Starchief’s point, however. If they want that, but vote Tory, Labour, LD, UKIP then they are intellectually challenged.

  50. Old Nat,

    Sweatys = sweaty socks
    I’ll leave the rest to you…

    There is no party for an English independence supporter to vote for, agreed.

    But until recently no-one thought need of such a party, it’s only now that it’s obvious everyone else wants to leave!

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