New YouGov Welsh poll

There is a new YouGov poll of Welsh assembly voting intentions for ITV. The topline figures, with changes from the last monthly poll, are as follows:

Constituency: CON 19%(-3), LAB 44%(nc), LDEM 9%(-2), PC 21%(+2)
Regional: CON 18%(-2), LAB 40%(-1), LDEM 9%(-3), PC 23%(+4)

At both regional and constituency level Plaid take second place from the Conservatives. On a uniform swing (and assuming Labour retake Blaenau Gwent now Trish Law is standing down) this would result in the Conservatives losing 4 of their 5 constituency seats to Labour (Monmouth would be the only hold). Add on the regional seats, where the Conservatives would get back some of the seats they lost at a constituency level, and the final result would be Conservatives 10 seats (down 2), Labour 31 seats (up 5), Lib Dems 5 (down 1), Plaid 14 (down 1) – giving Labour an overall majority for the first time.


519 Responses to “New YouGov Welsh poll”

1 2 3 4 5 11
  1. YG poll up.

    Best PM – the Red Quiet Man has slipped a couple of % in the reckoning from 24 to 22%, with his own party still not overwhelmingly convinced (5% of Labour supporters say Cameron although that may be mischief if they want him to be PM through the current conditions)

    Eoin – LDs were between 12.20% and 12.48% so similar to yesterday

    Ranges on blue and red can’t be narrowed to anything significant but the gap between them is the full 2%, compared to yesterday when it was more like 1.7%.

  2. If we take those VI improvements I listed above, and instead equate them into % growth in the parties support, it chages things just a little. Listed below are the last ten leaders of the top three UK political parties. Included is the % figure the grew their party’s support by, in the first month in charge. The figure of improvement is presented in % terms.

    1.Gordon Brown 16.50%
    2. David Cameron 11.60%
    3. Charles Kennedy 9.50%
    4. Tony Blair 6.60%
    5. Ming Campbell 5.30%
    6. Ian Duncan Smith 3.00%
    7. Michael Howard 2.50%
    8. William Hague 2.20%
    9. Ed Miliband 1.90%
    10. Nick Clegg 1.20%

  3. @John Murphy – “… correcting one perceived injustice makes even more important to correct them all”

    It a particularly unfortunate temptation of human nature to lash out in anger at those too weak to retaliate.

    On TV last night, a young man who after years in a hostel has suceeded in the single most important acheivement of his life… securing tenure on a very modest one bedroom flat. His ‘moveables’ appear to consist of a kettle, one or two other kitchen utensils and a plastic chair, but in his eyes it is a kingdom where he can sleep safe from the kicks of passing drunks.

    The £10 a week shortfall in HB will cut his food budget in half, and the very real fear of eviction is in his eyes.

    The revolving seachlight of tabloid scapegoating is something that should be discouraged, not employed by a responsible government.

  4. @COZMO
    An alternative to burning at the stake would be hanging, then drawing, then quartering,then the head impaled on a high point- eg Glastonbury and Tyburn.

  5. Hooded,

    Thanks for that. I was looking forward to those figures. Yes we are on trend for a 42% it s acase of if and not when. Reds need to be careful, a yellow improvement could have us on 35% before christmas.

  6. Hooded,

    Forigve me (coffee taking awhile to kick in) a case of when and not if.

  7. @Éoin……I love the Festival, as indeed I love the Scots, snag is, it’s too cold on the Edinburgh naughty step for a man of my advanced years….! :-)

  8. The more the Tories hammer home the £20,000pa HB, the more it will crystallise as an issue, it could be a poll changer if, as they appear to be doing, they introduce it at every opportunity………….It’s the, ‘could you afford £ 20,000 a year rent ?’ mantra. It will be particularly relevant to people struggling to pay a mortgage, with no government safety net, and the prospect of a forced move should they default, faced with the picture of people receiving high levels of support in subsidised housing.

  9. Ken,

    agreed.

  10. @Chris Lane
    ” An alternative to burning at the stake would be hanging, then drawing, then quartering,then the head impaled on a high point- eg Glastonbury and Tyburn.”
    ——————————
    Just arrived home and seen your post. Does this mean that AW has tightened up the comments policy? Scary!
    :)

  11. @Ken
    “The more the Tories hammer home the £20,000pa HB, the more it will crystallise as an issue, it could be a poll changer if, as they appear to be doing, they introduce it at every opportunity………….”

    Interesting comment. A few days ago on another I suggested that the HB issue could take on a life of its own and become a change issue.

    This is an issue IMO which will work against the gov. It has the makings of an issue where polarisation of ideology between the Cons and the LDs could become evident.

  12. @BillyBob

    My sentiments exactly and perfectly expressed.

  13. @MIKE N…….I think that the, ‘ twenty grand ‘ impact will sway even the most libertarian, it just seems so indulgent, it exceeds most peoples take-home pay…..but as you say, it could take on a life of its own……up or down for Blues ? I’ll go with up, LDs…my local MP is Simon Hughes, he is a pragmatist, might go with his heart though.

  14. I’m a little surprised some are talking about the cuts having no impact on the polls, as they haven’t, for the most part, actually happened yet. Everyone’s in favour of saving money and cutting waste. But when that waste turns out to be your job, library, school etc, that’s when the polls turn.

    HB and welfare reforms could split the coalition in two…perhaps even three?? I’m not too sure the LDs will stomach the battering their supporters will take in the depths of the cuts – who knows what the likes of Hughes and Kennedy will do.

    The next election will be like no other in the past 20 years or so. Labour might be racking up votes in Scotland and Wales, meaning the Tories are up in England but the whole dynamics of England will change.

    I can’t see too many slippages from L to LD in the north and London. So, it may be the Tories voting LD to keep out Labour. However, I’m not too sure the LDs will necessarily go with C if the next election is a hung parliament (not saying they won’t either – far from clear). In C/L marginals, the LD collapse will go Labour. But will that mean a LD slide to C in the SW?

    Any slip-back into recession should mean capital for Labour (“…we warned you! Your own coalition partner warned you! The IMF warned you!…”) – even with a recovery around election time (GO’s big gamble).

    So I do expect Labour to be ahead in the polls and in prime position to form a government in the current voting style. With boundary changes? There’s the rub.

  15. @Ken
    I suspect that the Cons will enjoy a brief increase n VI over this issue. But they will suffer damage IMO, because of the effect on those affected by these cuts.

    And perhaps more significantly the issue could define the coalition. Can it survive if the Cons stick to their plans and make no concession? But a u-turn or concessions will make the Con gov look weak.

  16. @Ken

    But as you know from living in Southwark the poor have been caught in a trap of rising house prices and private rents since the early 1990s (when these inner london boroughs were gentrified ) and the council house stock being sold and in the 1980s and never replaced.

    Rather than this punitive ‘blame’ culture’ how about building some houses….

    We managed to do so after the war… in less propitious circumstances.Then a Conservative goverment was relected on a pledge to build 500,000 new homes a year…and it did. Let our state owned banks find a clever financial intruemnt to deliver the houses we need instead of the bonuses we don’t.

  17. 76% of Labour Party voters, support the idea of limiting claimable benefits to £500 a week. (84% of voters overall agree)

    Sometimes I ask myself what planet I am living on, am i ou tof touch? But then I look at YouGov tables, and I am consoled by the fact that I am not deluding myself.

  18. @Eoin
    “Sometimes I ask myself what planet I am living on, am i ou tof touch? But then I look at YouGov tables, and I am consoled by the fact that I am not deluding myself.”

    Would you care to elaborate?

  19. Only 25% of Labour party supporters oppose withdrawing Child Benefit from a higher rate tax payer…

    Another shining example of how the red party leadership spend more time looking after people with an income of more than the state’s average, instead of speaking out for the poor.

  20. Mike N,

    I’d happily elabourate… Chablis Liberal Lefites are running the Labour Party against the policy wished of the vast majority of its support base…

    Yap about VAT, Unemployment, Contact poitn etc… but as for the dudes with £45k or £26k rental properties…. me thinks they’ll be alright somehow.

    Its infuriating to see a new red leader dedicate his first full month to sticking up for yummy mummies and people who quite clearly milk benefits.

  21. Over the course of a parliament, there are 21,000 people in the UK claiming between them a minimum of £2.7bn of housing benefit. That is flamin bonkers. That sum equals virtually penny for penny, the total bill for our winter fuel payment system last year.

  22. @Eion

    Spot on.

    VI – Will not move much unless\untill ( depending on view points ) there is reall and visible effect on swing voters or Troy voters.

    Any movement left is probably outwieghed by a general level of support for capping HB and remove CB. School gate chelsea tractor mums, although outraged at the loss of their CB in vox pops are not about to lerch left as a result. Especially as most won’t miss the money and it will be a non issue in 4 years time.

    What would be really interesting is to see what happens if the LDs split\bring down the government over the issue of HB. How will the general public reagrd a party that firstly supported the cons ( betraying the left ) and then split over payments for homes that only the very wealthiest could dream of….?

  23. Aparently Tower Hamlets does well for HB.

  24. @Eoin
    The average HB claim nationwide is around £84 pw.
    If Labour had made a half-decent effort during their time in power to increase home-building ( social and private ) then perhaps rents would not have reached such ridiculous levels. Same goes for house purchase prices, but which party dare promise action to stem or reduce property values?

  25. Cozmo,

    I do accept that London has some mitigating circumstances, and that I am not informed enough of the special case that appears to exist there. But if the average working family in England makes ends meet on £500 p.w. and some a lot lot less than that… I fail to see why this is reds number one priority.

    If a man was to claim £26 in HB for an indefinite period of time, would it not be cheaper just to build this dude a house? You can buy a brand new House in Derby for under a £100k. That is 4 years of HB for some people. The sheer scale of it I find mesmerising.

  26. Question:

    Has Andy Coulson briefed a 6% budget increase for the EU just so that everyone whill applaud DC, when it is closer to 3.5%? Is it a very cheap politicla point?

    If the answer is yes, should Yvette Cooper not be on our tellies telling us that DC is orchestrating a storn in a teacup and that it is unlikely to be anywhere enar 6%?

    Handing your opponent frebbies such as the one DC will win today, is not very enlightened.

  27. @Eoin
    “The sheer scale of it I find mesmerising.”
    —————–
    Agreed. Unfortunately the headlines about extreme claims serve as good cover for the adverse changes which affect the majority with modest rents. So what’s new? Simple headlines work well.

    It will be interesting to see what LibDem MPs do today. Ed M has challenged them to vote with their hearts. I think his strategy on several things is muddled though – and I am waiting for him to discover the North ( the bit above Watford ).

  28. The 10% cut for th elong term unemployed, arouses an anger much more readily. On top of a VAT increase of 2.5%, the most vulnerable in our society are going to be cobbled with a minium 12.5% cut to their income next year. To be unemployed for 1 year is no great feat. During the last blue government I remember 1/3 of the adult men in my home city were unemployed. Reds should switch their focus to that….

  29. Cozmo,

    Sorry that was for you.

  30. Tony Blair would not reverse Thatcher’s legislation which prevented Councils from building new council housing. The left told New Labour repeatedly that paying out HB was hugely more expensive than building new housing. Chickens and roosting comes to mind, and to the detriment of a lot of frightened households.

  31. Syzygy,

    Yes I agree. The £20bn annual bill for HB could be much better spent but only if it ALL went on housing. I don’t agree with cutting the bill to pay for inheritance tax cuts.

  32. @ Eoin
    I do accept that London has some mitigating circumstances.
    I do not think London has any mitigating circumstances but special circumstances. We have to get this idea out of people’s heads that the streets of London and the South East are paved with gold.There is a massive shortage of housing in London,due in the main to the large recent increase in immigration.They get drawn to London like a magnet and disappear in the system.Therefore I agree with you sentiments.It’s claimants should not benefit from the taxpayer more than any other part of the country. One would have thought living in London would give far greater access to jobs and that would be the pay off.I think the hope is “move or get a job to pay your rent” option which is being given will make some difference to the costs of social housing in London boroughs to the taxpayer.The fact ED M seems to want to make this his main issue is like manor from heaven for the tories.

  33. Oh dear, the UXB (Unexploded Boris) has started ticking off in London over the housing benefit issue, and is publicly refuting the policy of government. I would have to suspect he has realised how much making a few thousand people homeless might adjust his own job security.

  34. @Eoin
    During the GE campaign I attended several meetings with VIP guest speakers. I asked David Milliband some questions about Lab housing policies, including why they had done so little to tackle the huge waiting lists and I was not at all happy with his answers. :(

  35. @Jay Blanc

    ‘That’s an… Interesting claim. Currently, LHA rates are *defined* at the median of local rents. For your claim to be correct, it would have to mean that either a huge proportion of private rents go to those on housing benefit.’

    The LHA rates are defined as the median of private sector free-market rents. Tenancies subject to HB are excluded from the calculation as they are deemed to be not freely negotiated between landlord and tenant because the benefit level affects that process.

    HB levels can therefore be 90% of LHA as they are separate systems. Non-claimant average rents can be 90% of the LHA median rent especially as there are still some extremely low rents from old regulated tenancies. I don’t know if that resolves your question.

  36. Am I caught in some groundhog situation? That’s the third time I seen that post by Aleksandar.

  37. oops

    …groundhog day situation

  38. So, Boris is speaking out against the HB cuts? Will this damage him in the eyes of the Cons?

    I like BJ.

  39. It does all seem set up for an almighty row in the commons in trying to get Housing Benefits passed.

    Are we looking at the government’s first major reversal. Will DC go all in, and make it a confidence issue to try and push it through?

  40. Mike N,

    Be careful with your third post. You sound like an immigrant with broken English soliciting.

    cozmo,

    If HB gre from £11bn – £20bn over 13 years, how much money is that? How many social homes could have been built? scary isnt it.

  41. @Eoin
    How many social homes could have been built?
    ———————–
    Very roughly 100,000 minimum, but a drop in the Irish Sea set against a waiting list of 2 million plus. Still a better use of money though, and an investment in appreciating assets.

  42. @Eoin
    100k per annum that is

  43. I may have got his wrong, but didn’t Osborne say that the £26,000 pa cap was on all benefits. Housing benefits will be largest component of that in many cases and I think that the idea is to regulate the maximum via the HB system (this sounds like another administrative disaster waiting to happen by itself by the way). So a family of say six paying £400pw in rent will have just £100pw left for utilities, food, travel costs etc.

    Michael B
    There is a massive shortage of housing in London,due in the main to the large recent increase in immigration.They get drawn to London like a magnet and disappear in the system

    So presumably you think that it then makes sense to clear out all the poorer people with families from London so that their jobs (or potential jobs) will filled by …more immigrants? It’s reliance on immigrant labour (often illegal; usually young and without local dependents) rather than paying decent wages, that is part of the reason for London housing costs in the first place.

    The fact ED M seems to want to make this his main issue is like manor from heaven for the tories
    Typo of the day :)

  44. Just reading an article by polly Toynbee and came across this memorable line “The “big society” is now an empty aircraft carrier with no jump-jets.”

    Eoin, what – no smiley?

    Just looked up ‘seen’ and found that apart from being the past participle of ‘see’ it is also a West Indian exclamation said as an expession of approval or agreement, or when seeking confirmation of an utterance.

    Jay Blanc
    Whatever happens DC will be damaged by this issue. It will be interesting to see how he responds.

  45. Eoin
    Just understood your ‘post’ fully. ;-)

  46. @Mike N

    First No.10 comment on this is “The prime minister does not agree with what Boris Johnson has said or indeed the way he said it. He thinks the policy is the right one.”

    Which… Sounds an awful lot like a party split to me?

  47. BBC had a program today showing a man buying his son a flat in Hackney. If the son goes unemployed HB pays off the mortgage and everyone’s happy.
    Boris has entered the fray to remind everyone the purpose of the Mayor of London is to make the PM of the day look good.

  48. To the manna born?

  49. @Wolf

    Since HB can not be paid for renting from your own family, I think he may have made a mistake there.

  50. Jay Blanc
    “or indeed the way he said it”

    oooh. Wonderful stuff.

    There’s only one way to settle this. Fight!

1 2 3 4 5 11