New YouGov Welsh poll

There is a new YouGov poll of Welsh assembly voting intentions for ITV. The topline figures, with changes from the last monthly poll, are as follows:

Constituency: CON 19%(-3), LAB 44%(nc), LDEM 9%(-2), PC 21%(+2)
Regional: CON 18%(-2), LAB 40%(-1), LDEM 9%(-3), PC 23%(+4)

At both regional and constituency level Plaid take second place from the Conservatives. On a uniform swing (and assuming Labour retake Blaenau Gwent now Trish Law is standing down) this would result in the Conservatives losing 4 of their 5 constituency seats to Labour (Monmouth would be the only hold). Add on the regional seats, where the Conservatives would get back some of the seats they lost at a constituency level, and the final result would be Conservatives 10 seats (down 2), Labour 31 seats (up 5), Lib Dems 5 (down 1), Plaid 14 (down 1) – giving Labour an overall majority for the first time.


519 Responses to “New YouGov Welsh poll”

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  1. Neil A,

    Indeed there will be a big uptick in Tory numbers for England, particularly as UK is up 4 or 5 overall and Scotland and Wales dropping.

    Back to the usual debate though as to whether that is just hardening of the already hard Tory heartlands, or wider progress.

    What we need is an English *marginal* poll to see whether there is any significant movement or if both parties are just bolstering their base.

  2. Anthony,
    Thank you, I got confused over the fact of a single party government..

    Others on the public sector: I confess I have been a worker for the public sector since 1979. Is this ok?Midwives, nurses, doctors, refuse collectors, bus drivers, post office workers, grave diggers, soldiers, navy men and women, airforce men and women, child protection officers also.

    Bankers are in the private sector, so are car salesmen, Equitable Life directors, Wall Street 1929 speculators- marvellous people

    Has anyone read Sidney Webb’s ironic description of the ‘indiividualist town councillor’s walk past the municipal facilities.

    And how large are the public sectors in Denmark, Norway and Sweden?

  3. The real problem Ed Miliband has is that, to have a consistent anti-coalition set of policies, he has to turn his back on practically everything that Labour did in office. Most of the coalition policies are after all extensions of New Labour ones – or at least New Labour rhetoric. And if you went into an election claiming you can make savings in the working of Government of 19%, then it’s difficult to denounce someone claiming to make 20% as inhuman monsters.

    Now although a lot of the New Labourites have retired to spend more time with their directorships and beat each other up with their autobiographies, there’s still enough true believers around in Parliament and the wider Party to make handbrake turns difficult. It’s not so much that new policies can’t be developed overnight, but that Ed M has to persuade the Party to back him unreservedly. Given he only squeaked into the leadership and the muttering to overthrow him started straight away, any changes he makes will have to be careful and slow.

    This is not an excuse for doing nothing however. In particular the deficit does have to be recognised – even if its extent and the means of reducing it should be challenged. In the meantime there are numerous ways of fighting the cuts – pointing out their inefficiencies would be a start.

  4. @ Neil A

    I agree. Just looked back at the polls for the first four months of 2001. All the polls during that period gave the LDs ratings in the 11-16% range. At the General Election in June that year the LDs achieved a respectable 19% vote share and won over 50 seats.

    Presumably Nick Clegg and his colleagues will be hoping for something similar in 2015…

  5. Richard in Norway,

    Let’s hope the views of a heretic may hold some credence.
    Otherwise Collins English Dictionary have gone to an awful waste of time today by including ‘cleggmania’ as one of their new words…. :-)

  6. “And how large are the public sectors in Denmark, Norway and Sweden?”

    very large, very very large

    public sector also includes an airline and oil companys plus a lot more

  7. @Richard in Norway
    “ok i know i deserve to be burnt at the stake”

    I know AW can be tough but that’s a bit severe!.
    In any case, isn’t this site is a smokeless zone ?

    My Cleggometer says NC is not popular and
    until today he had the most negative rating on Tellyougov and has only slipped into second place cos £Wayne £Rooney now gets up more noses.

    h ttp://www.tellyougov.com/leaderboard

  8. @ Richard in Norway

    As a pro-Coalition LD I like your heresy.

    I know there is a view in some Lib Dem circles that whilst the Coalition has lost voters who saw the party as ‘Labour-lite’, in the longer term it may actually attract new supporters who previously didn’t think of the LDs as a serious party of Government.

  9. @ Richard in Norway

    ok i know i deserve to be burnt at the stake
    ————————————
    These days, I find myself agreeing with so many things you say… ;-)

  10. David Abrahams

    i think that the inability to capitalise on good positions in the polls can in part be put down to a fear amongst the public that the dems might just be as honest and naive as they seem

    off to bed now

    goodnight all

  11. amber

    lol very funny

    you want to light the match?

  12. @ Richard in Norway

    Heavens, no! I was just kidding – & With my Labour hat on, I am all for the Dems keeping Clegg as leader…. it will cost them about 10 points, most of which will go to Labour at the end of the day. :-)

  13. At lunchtime tomorrow a great new multi-use development is opening at Cheapside in the City of London……it’s called, One New Change, 1500 new jobs have been created. Across the river at London Bridge, the Shard, Europe’s tallest building, is almost complete, and the London Bridge quarter is becoming one of the most exciting places in the Capital…..thousands more jobs will be on offer. The point is, that reading the posts on here, it would seem that the narrative is totally negative.
    The polls are showing good support for the Coalition and that support obviously comes from England, I suggested a couple of days ago that a poll of the marginals would be a good idea, Hooded Man, up-thread has said the same. Labour are mistaken, IMO, to emphasise the negative, they will become identified by it……the negative party, a gradual drift south in the polls will be their reward.

  14. amber,

    Well then please believe when I say this; a) ed miliband will not be leader of the Labour party for more than 5 years, b) blues are in for 10. :( Walking straight into their trap.

    I would not make the mistake of conflating Ed’s polciies during the campaign with his policies as leader.

    In 1990 Reds were 51.. In 1990 Blues were 29….

    blues won.

  15. @Eoin…………I agree, the Blues are the future, and of course, we’re top of the Premiership. :-)

  16. It’s a long game I guess and Ed M will grow into it but sometimes the public want a quicker impression, some impact, a mark made just to signal your arrival. I’m not sure he’s done that yet, and some of the old administration’s habits are creeping through. The triangulating, the odd choice of ‘dividing lines’ for their own sake. Will Labour’s lost or disillusioned vote really see CB being removed from the richest and HB caps of £21k p.a as being the high impact ‘stake in the ground’ issues out of the ‘feast’ of CSR cuts to choose from? I’m not sure….

    And his big-hitters have all been ‘neutered’ in some way (by him)
    Balls at home. Mrs Balls away. AB in new brief.
    And oh brother where art thou?

  17. Hooded, good past

    You have a choice…

    1. policy
    2. presentation

    If you choose the latter, you hug a huskie or a hoodie, maybe change a logo pretend you liek the environment and gay guys (a.k.a. rebrand). a horrible strategy, but a viable one nonetheless. If there is a lesson in rebranding, it is to be found in the manufacturing process that makes cast iron.

    Unlike medium density or high denisty stainless steel, cast iron can only be set once… If life was an hour… you have probably a few minutes to cast the die. A teacher is trained to believe that we have 15 seconds to get the kids on board.

    If ed miliband aint about policy, but instead about presentation, well then to put it very politely, he has a funny way of showing it. I abhor popular culture, but I seem to see more of Cheryl Cole’s thighs than I do Ed M.

  18. @ Roger Mexico

    “The real problem Ed Miliband has is that, to have a consistent anti-coalition set of policies, he has to turn his back on practically everything that Labour did in office. Most of the coalition policies are after all extensions of New Labour ones ”

    I totally agree… and with your later point about the 60 ultra blairites and many blairites-lite in the PLP.

    The LP is very compromised by New Labour’s record, much of which, as your quote implies, was tory-lite… and as I know from my own local politics, the blairite- right do not have a lot of time for transparency or democratic structures. Overwhelmingly, the PLP is to the right of constituency members… and this causes Ed M to be rather piggy in the middle-ish.

  19. Ken

    “a gradual drift south in the polls will be their reward.”

    Given the low poll ratings in the South, you seem to be suggesting that Labour will gain. :-)

  20. Ken,

    You forgot the fada É :)

  21. @Oldnat……………..I wonder if you’ve identified a flaw in Labour’s strategy. Having had their normal smokey room conflab with their Union bosses, it was agreed that they should attempt to….’Drift South in the polls’ ! :-)

  22. @ÉOIN………………..There you go, caps. as well, I’m in a generous mood tonight, cup is definitely half full in this neck of the woods. :-)

  23. Eoin,

    Cheers, I’m proud of my good ‘past’ ;-)

    I like your ‘cast iron’ allegory. I think the past week has been a golden opportunity for him to pile in and sell his philosophy. But nothing.

    And I know it’s cheap knockabout but at PMQs when he stood there today he looked like he’d brought his mum along for support (HH)

    I genuinely hope it changes (strong opposition makes for better govt and all that) but it’s not been impressive so far…

  24. Ken,
    lol
    :-)

  25. David Cameron & Nick Clegg may be the heirs to Blair; but both had emerging (accidental?) strategies that worked for them, aside from copying Tony.

    “Call me Dave” floated above the fray whilst occasionally popping up to entertain us with hilarious gaffes (the bike + Lexus, being the most popular). He flipped & flopped until the 11th hour but this made it hard to pin him – or his Party – down.

    Nick was a bit of an enigma, then he made a quick sprint for the finish, but his shoelaces were effectively tied together by the fact that his Party simply weren’t going to win.

    Ed M can pick from the best of both these strategies; & if the fixed term legislation passes, he’ll have the advantage of knowing when to harden his policies & persona; then kick into his sprint at the optimum point.

    I believe his team will know exactly what to do, come the day. 8-)

  26. Anyone that thinks EdM will be Labour leader for 5 years whilst not managing to achieve a *minimum* of a consistent/ hard/ unbreakable 5% poll lead by late 2011/ early 2012 is guilty of both

    a) not learning the lessons of recent (UK) political history;
    b) believing that the labour party- like themselves- has also woefully failed to learn the lessons of recent (UK) political history.

    EdM will find his pitch and the voters will ‘get him’: or- if he does not and they don’t- he will be out. And- if circa 2012- it will be DavidM (waiting quietly on the backbenches) who will be in! The labour party is more ruthless than it was in Kinnochios day. They have learned the lesson of the 1987- 1992 parliament (that’s why they were breaking for Blair and not Brown prior to John Smiths death).

    But, however, no one can say with any certainty yet that EdM himself is not a winner.

    Unlike several of the usual suspects on here (and their anyone but “bananaman” narrative) I gave EdM short shrift throughout the leadership campaign. Unlike those same usual suspects I am giving him till next May- and those real elections with real votes- with a completely open mind. None of this dreary ‘he’s got his tactics all wrong’; ‘he should be doing this’; ‘he should be doing that’. To those I say- in terms of both their view in the leadership campaign and their views about what EdM should now do going forward: ‘be careful what you wish for’. I for one am not surprised at all that pragmatic EdM in power is not the rhetorical EdM of the campaign: I pointed out that he would do this to posters on here repeatedly over the summer ?

    Anyway- far from the ‘oh woe is red’ Armageddon pitch of the usual suspects in actual fact the most likely current worst case scenario- for a red- is not a Conservative win in 2013- 2015 but a slightly better performance for blue than in 2010. But *still* short of an overall majority. In which case Cameron himself will be in trouble and looking over his shoulder. But I do find the overly triangulated rush-to-judgement of some of our addicted-to-posting comrades a tad amusing 8-)

    ***

    Latest YouGov/Sun voting intention
    CON 41%, LAB 39%, LDEM 12%

    Latest government approval rating
    – minus 4 (40% approve, 44% disapprove)

    Predictable and wholly consistent with my assertion at the weekend that we are in for 6 months where we are hovering +/- 3% around 41-39-12 (i.e. blue 44-38/ red 42-36/ yellow 15-9).

    Only wider/ unforeseen ‘events dear boy events’ will change that: because the impact of this coalition government will not actually be felt by anyone- not a single voter- before then. Even the VAT rise- post xmas when everyone is taped out anyway- will take several months to show up in people’s perception of their disposable income.

    Our discussions are- basically- utterly academic until the May elections…..and the *real* voting judgements on Dave-George-Nick and their agenda (and the EdM retort). At that moment the games afoot and we ar in a countdown either to the coalition splitting or EdM getting the boot.

    ;-)

  27. @ Chris Lane 11:45 pm

    I really enjoyed your post.

    Please do not mix the Scandinavian countries. While the state expenditure is very high in Denmark and it has an excellent welfare system, it’s easier to fire an employeee there than in the UK. It’s nicknamed Flexecurity.

  28. More details on the Welsh poll here

    h ttp://itvwales.wordpress.com/2010/10/27/itv-wales-poll-assembly-election-and-referendum-voting-intentions-october-results/

  29. @ Eoin

    “You have a choice…

    1. policy
    2. presentation

    If you choose the latter, you hug a huskie or a hoodie, maybe change a logo pretend you liek the environment and gay guys (a.k.a. rebrand). a horrible strategy, but a viable one nonetheless. If there is a lesson in rebranding, it is to be found in the manufacturing process that makes cast iron.

    Unlike medium density or high denisty stainless steel, cast iron can only be set once… If life was an hour… you have probably a few minutes to cast the die. A teacher is trained to believe that we have 15 seconds to get the kids on board.”

    There are two additional options. You can do both policy and presentation.

    Or you can do neither and simply hope that the public is so disappointed, the vast majority won’t vote and you’ll win by default without having to change anything.

  30. Good morning

    Well looks like its a case of cuts are stuck in the minds of the voting public…..

    A few thoughts…..

    a) The catastrophisation of cuts by theunions, media and reds may play into blues hands. For the vast majority of people the cuts will be abrely noticable.

    b) As a blue leaner, I think the HB and CB cuts have struck a chord with blue and floating voaters. I find it quite amusing to see “red ed” outraged at the cut in benifits to the top 15% of earners and complaining about a ,aximum HB claim higher than all but the top 5% could claim as a mortgage.

    So for the next 12 months were waiting on events…..

  31. @Anthony……Surely, paraphrasing Churchill can’t be deserving of moderation, it wasn’t partisan, it was pertinent……! :-)

  32. @KEN
    Depends which one of the Great Mans utterances you chose mate. WLSC, did compare Labour to the Gestapo during the 45 election. That would give AW the hump if repeated very often.

  33. Simon,

    Yes, I agree.

    JSA claimants lose 10% of their HB after a year… Conceivably that is a reduction £1,000+ Now Ed could have pushed that one… what if GO’s plan fails and he can’t create jobs, is he going to punish HB claimants by taking their money of them?

    Ed could have used the differences over EU budgeting to stake the red party’s new position as a critical engager with Europe.

    Ed could have took on unlimited tuition fees (not a parliamentry question on it)

    Ed could have politely exposed the contradiction in terms, the bullying GB received about defence expenditure, even though he spent much much more than GO/DC,

    Ed could have asked about Obama’s exit strategy from Afghan. Apparently it is a year now 4-5 as GO/DC plan. where does that leave ‘our’ guys?

    Ed could have taregetted VAT rises, contact point, schools building programme… allowing fares to rise, conflicitng with environmental reforms. He could have targetted the Hodge Podge compromise of yes nuclear but we wont help fund them… He coud have raisedReds old Eco Town plan as a Keynsian way out of economic trouble…

    _____________

    Instead he seeks to defend the top 15% of Child Benefit recipients… and Those receiving £26,000 in Housing benefit… to the net result that I am now asking myself if LAbour is stilll a party fo rthe working class?

  34. @Roland………..Nothing so controversial, it was about an empty cab………! :-)

  35. @Eoin
    “I am now asking myself if Labour is stilll a party fo rthe working class?”
    ——————————–
    A useful guide is to consider the background of MPs and Councillors. I reckon the mix has changed gradually over several decades. More professionals, less cloth caps. Some are out of touch. I think it’s a bad thing that few of them know what it is to be hungry – but they are the best hope to save some of us from the workhouse.

  36. @Ken
    “it was about an empty cab”
    ———————
    No – it was an insult. Naughty step beckons again.

  37. Government means choices and choices inevitably make enemies….as Mr Clegg and his band of merry men are finding out….

    ….I wonder if there was polling done as to which of the government’s policies are LibDem and which Conservative what the ever perceptive man in the street would say….I’m thinking that for better or worse, in sickness or in health the LIbDem ID card is becoming indistinct in the minds of many voters from from the Conservative one…I wonder who’ll agree with Nick next time?

    The danger is that the more Mr Cameron becomes the Lady with the Handbag the less the LIbDems can claim they moderate the excesses of their Conservative coalition partner. Is this Mr milliband’s machiavellian motive?

    The true riposte to Mr Cameron’s ‘is it fair’ mantra….is, is it fair that millionaires should receive a winter fuel allowance? Is it fair that the poor should be taxed on some benefits and the better off not be taxed on theirs? correcting one perceibed injustice makes even more important to correct them all…otherwise its a partial reform meant to be partial.

    The Welfare state was created on the notion that social solidarirty creates its own sense of fairnesss.

    The government is beginning to look very prescriptive in its analysis of everything….self-righteous, moralisitic, judgemental…Playing up to the prejudices of public opinion isn’t a recipe for poltiical inclusiveness and we’re all in this together….except the underserving poor whom we demonise.

    I note with interest the the housing benefit argument is all about scroungers and the unemployed getting housing benefit….in fact I beleive the majority of recipients actually are waged…

    The debate on here yesterday ignored the fact the house price inflation in the inner boroughts where many of these people live is not a consequence of the housing benefit regime but the consequence of the gentrification of these areas – Spitalfields being the most obvious example but true of all the areas. It’s pushed up house prices and rents. That in itself pushes out the poor. With regard social housing the lack of housing stock is a direct consequence of the policies of selling council properties in the 1980s and not replacing them with new….

    The answer to all this is to blame the poor for the very economic experiements we’ve carried out on them over a generation.

    The government will have its way.

    I place a happy bet with anyone on here that the consequences of these new policies will be to further entrench poverty in certain social groups and to deepen the divisions between richer and an excluded, deprived underclass.

    We’ve been down the road of these social policies before….and we’ll be back to Victorian levels of poverty and an alienated underclass who are resented and feared…. in another genration…quite an achievement…for the best educated society in the history of man!

    Fortunately I ‘ll not be here then…..

    But the poverty of our political imagination is a saluatory warning.

    The only successful drive against poverty like this was between 1945 and 1965….then we were truly in it together and from that solidarity the poor were given homes and education and that generation until seduced by consummerism did well from the collective action that’s now so unfashionable .

  38. Cozmo,

    soemthing I will do when i have time today is claculate the party’s average 1 month before the arrival of a new leader and one month after the arrival of a new leader.

    I will do this for the last ten new party leaders, and rank Ed Miliband’s month for VI impact. Given that Ed had a red party conference and a CSR to reply to (And Browne) theoretically he was gifted a hat-ick of opportunities. It is my contention that he fluffed all three.

    so the ten leaders..

    1. Ed Miliband.
    2. Nick Clegg
    3. Ming Campbell
    4. David cameron
    5. Michael Howard
    6. IDS
    7. Charles Kennedy
    8. William Hague
    9. Tony Blair
    10. John Smith [R.I.P.]

    4 blues, 3 reds, 3 yellows.

    I’ll measure as a proportion of their pre-existing support, they improved in a month.

    Thus if a yellow goes from 10 – to an average of 11% you could say they extended their support by 10%.

    If Blue went from 40- to 44% – it would also be 10%. That way it will not disadvantage the smaller party leaders.

  39. @Eoin
    Awesome! I admire your energy and look forward to reading your conclusions.

    Have to pop out now and do some casework.

  40. @COZMO………Whilst my comment may be inappropriate for general consumption, it certainly wasn’t an insult, and naughty steps are for naughtiness……….! :-)

  41. Put it this way, I have cleared the junk mail off the naughty step and made space there….

  42. @Anthony……… :-) :-0

  43. In terms of measuring the impact of a new leaders first month in charge of his party, I have measured the voting impact of the last ten leaders. The list in rank order of biggest impact is included below. All leaders had a positive impact on their parties fortunes. When I get time, I will calculate how much party strength grew by, rather than just raw %VI improvement. Unless, of course I have a volunteer to do so, since I have all of the data here, it would not take them long…? Anyway, see below for rank order of biggest improvements in party fortunes.. [I was a wee bit cheeky with the smileys after the characters- forgive me- I call it reward for the efforts I went to]

    1. Gordon Brown 5.53% :)
    2. David Cameron 3.9% :(
    3. Tony Blair 3.25% :)
    4. Charles Kennedy 1.33% :)
    5. Ming Campbell 0.975% :)
    6. Michael Howard 0.85% :(
    7. Ian Duncan Smith 0.83% :(
    8. Ed Miliband 0.72% :(
    9. William Hague 0.5% :(
    10. Nick Clegg 0.2% :(

  44. If anyone is in the area, I am going to the opening of One New Change in Cheapside, at mid-day, I shall be wearing a poppy and carrying a folded copy of the Torygraph, for the purposes of recognition………… Errmmm…so will everyone else. :-)

  45. Much too early to judge Ed Milliband. Unlike most posters here I have met Ed and his team and I feel confident that tactically and strategically he is up to the job.

    Real hard and harsh politics is goingto kick in next year – at the moment it’s all about what’s going to happen mostly rather than what actually is happening. Ed needs to firing on all cylinders next year in the run up to the May elections and after and I think he will be.

  46. @Anthony………….In the light of Éoin’s list, would you consider removing my Churchillian post from moderation please ? :-)

  47. @Anthony……….If it’s of any help, it appears that a couple of Tories and a Liberal got out with him !

  48. Ken,

    You should book yourself in for the Edinburgh Fringe Festival… I reckon the Scots would find you funny

  49. @Rob Sheffield

    ‘ Even the VAT rise- post xmas when everyone is taped out anyway- will take several months to show up in people’s perception of their disposable income.’

    You make an excellent point about the VAT rise happening in a post-spending period so altering perceptions or at least their timing. In that it also co-incides with the January sales some of the initial rise may be absorbed by the retailers further clouding the issue.

  50. I think that the Tory line of, ‘we’re all in this together’ is probably a mistake, since clearly we aren’t. We live in a hierarchical society, and therefore it is in the nature of things that we are ,’ placed ‘ appropriately. An Asian family in Newham might appear to be living in poverty, but, in fact, they are comfortable and happy, it is simply that they haven’t joined our materialistic culture, preferring, instead, to concentrate on the spiritual aspect of their lives. We see them in the context of our own lifestyle and judge their’s accordingly. It isn’t our job to pull people up the lifestyle scale, it is their job to decide how much they want to do to equalise their status………..To compare any part of Britain today with the Victorian era is to consign even the rich to a relatively deprived way of life. Cammo has got that one wrong.

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