New YouGov Welsh poll

There is a new YouGov poll of Welsh assembly voting intentions for ITV. The topline figures, with changes from the last monthly poll, are as follows:

Constituency: CON 19%(-3), LAB 44%(nc), LDEM 9%(-2), PC 21%(+2)
Regional: CON 18%(-2), LAB 40%(-1), LDEM 9%(-3), PC 23%(+4)

At both regional and constituency level Plaid take second place from the Conservatives. On a uniform swing (and assuming Labour retake Blaenau Gwent now Trish Law is standing down) this would result in the Conservatives losing 4 of their 5 constituency seats to Labour (Monmouth would be the only hold). Add on the regional seats, where the Conservatives would get back some of the seats they lost at a constituency level, and the final result would be Conservatives 10 seats (down 2), Labour 31 seats (up 5), Lib Dems 5 (down 1), Plaid 14 (down 1) – giving Labour an overall majority for the first time.


519 Responses to “New YouGov Welsh poll”

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  1. @MIKE N
    Do you seriously expect AV to win a yes vote the public.IMO You would be lucky if 20 percent of the population even bother to vote. I suspect a caviat maybe woven into the bill that unless a certain percentage of the population vote it will be classed as a non runner.

  2. @MichaelB

    If EM and Lab get behind the Yes vote who knows what might happen.

    A minimum vote requirement would make sense to me.

  3. Anthony (11:29)

    You might be doing yourself out of a job here. If all we’re allowed to say every day is “another movement within margin of error”, this is going to be a very quiet site. :)

    I must reinforce your attack on Eoin’s decimal point fetishism, though. Even with YouGov’s new improved 2,000 sample sizes there’s a less than 70% chance that a Conservative 40% rating represents a “true” figure between 39% and 41%, never mind going down to decimal points. (Yes, I know I’m simplifying madly here – but the real percentage is probably a lot lower than 70%)

    Hooded Man

    I’m afraid your calculation to estimate the sample size total excluding Non-Voters and Don’t Knows doesn’t work. You have to look at both figures separately. This gives you:

    7% of 1986 = Range [130 -148]

    13% of 1986 = Range [249 – 267]

    Total Range [379 – 415]

    Remaining sample [1571 – 1609]

    Even more relevantly the way that rounding works means that likelihood is spread evenly through the range – the true value is no more likely to be at the centre than near the edges. (You could narrow the range a bit by comparing it to Party percentages, but that is hard work).

    In any case, even if you knew the figure, as I point out above the decimal points are completely meaningless. :(

    Anthony (again)

    It occurred to me, when looking at the above, that on-line polling by definition excludes the “Would Not Says” from their polling. Do you assume at the moment that these are breaking pro rata for the Parties, or are you adjusting for shy somethings yet? (I always think of WNS’s as imperious Tory dowagers going “How dare you ask me a about something that should be private, young man?”, but I suppose it’s all sorts.

  4. Roger – well, by definition all forms of polling miss out the answers of people who won’t say! Hopefully it should be less to online pollsters since there is no human interviewer interacting with the respondent.

    From memory I think you are actually right about the demographics of would not says in phone polls – tends towards older middle class women.

  5. @ Roger Mexico – “… imperious Tory dowagers”

    One or two Tories of my aquaintance do indeed react with considerable antipathy towards pollsters… any subjection to a supplementary leading question is utterly infuriating… rightly so imo because it is seen as a deep affront to their individualist mindset, and insult to their intelligence.

  6. @Cyberkarst – “PS, In return, can some explain to me why they put a ‘@’ before everyone’s name. Is this some new grammatical convention I’m not aware of?”

    Welcome – I know it isn’t your first appearance here, but I must have missed your debut.

    I do this, but only because I saw others do it, so I can’t tell you why. Perhaps EOIN has a suitable theory of social conformity he can use to explain such behaviour.

    On a practical level, I find it useful to track repsonses to individual posts as you can immediately see where there has been a named response. Others seem to do it by using capitals for the name of the poster they are responding to (as above) but I’m not so keen on that.

  7. Somhairle

    I’m always surprised that Tories in Scotland are against PR – since it is that that ensures representation of the centre-right. What are your views on that?

    While I was glad to see the Scottish Democratic Alliance campaign for a centre-right independent Scotland, I find their rhetoric too anti-English for my taste.

    h ttp://www.scottishdemocraticalliance.org/
    (for those south of the border who may not know of them)

  8. @all
    I started uing this after seeing others using.

    How sad is that?

  9. The post is directed @ a named individual because there can be numerous discussions running concurrently… since visiting this site I have learnt that it is a widespread convention.
    Nothing to stop one making a generalised post though, or innovating if you so wish. :)

  10. @@@+ I thought it was the responders rating of the recipient/s. :-)

  11. We’ll be having another discussion about how to do smilies at this rate.

    If you point at one with your cursor, it shows you how… don’t forget to put a space before and after though. ;)

  12. @Amber

    ‘It could be very unpopular in London.’

    What matters is how unpopular the cap is with voters and in particular non-Labour voters/don’t knows/don’t cares. I don’t see many Tories shifting and any likely LDs already have. I have concerns regarding all three of your reasons to varying degrees.

    ‘Firstly, with employers (including councils) who will have a smaller pool of workers to choose from’
    490k public sector workers will be looking for work. I don’t think we are due public sector labour shortages in the near term.

    ‘Secondly, with the voters who are directly affected.’ The measures will by definition affect the poorest in society who even if registered to vote don’t tend to vote Tory. LDs might suffer which explains SH’s nerves. IMO you’ll need to work on voter registration and turnout to capitalise on this.

    ‘Thirdly, with those who live in the suburbs, who suddenly find their rents are rising & competition for housing & jobs is fierce because of the influx of people pushed out from the center’
    This is a two-way process as vacancies appear at the centre. It is second nature in London to commute as many jobs are concentrated in non-residential areas especially in the centre. Swathes of people travel across London every day but some will now find cheaper rents nearer to their jobs in inner London. Westminster council have said that the LHA has priced low paid workers out of the area. This also pre-supposes that all the capped people will look for work. In some cases the size of the family means the family is a full time occupation however many parents are present. This third point is difficult to evaluate until the movement settles down.

    BTW by ‘capped people’ I don’t mean it in a ‘street’ way.

  13. Roger Mexico,

    I’m afraid you are wrong. Didn’t use DKs and WNVs to work out sample size as they could total 19-21% as you say , but the three parties numbers can be used. I won’t go into the detail because it would probably bore others (and irritate AW) but the sample range I quoted was correct for yesterday. If it’s wrong then one of the parties did not poll 41, 39 or 11. I’ll post if you really want proof!

    And there is no suggestion that the exact numbers represent true VI. That’s why there is MOE. But *statistically* they are spot on based on the weighted VI and the adjusted weighted sample size.

  14. Hooded :)

    I am a geek and proud. I liked your decimals. One week we have pollsters saying MoE is simply theoretical, next week it is the bible. For on eof the samples you done your decimals for the sample size was 2500+ (eg. MoE neglible). Seems a case of don’t peek to close. But that is fine since they are just snapshots afterall :)

    But I thought your maths were nifty..

    _________________

    Alec.

    all the older posters use @ (a throwback to technophobia :P ) teasing of course.

  15. @BILLY BOB
    Gardeners question time. My only question would be “how much per hour is it going to cost me for someone else to dig the bloody thing”? I do cut the grass though. As for accents, northerners have called me posh, but one cannot take notice of them. Compared with many I trained with at Sandhurst, not plummy at all.

  16. Eoin,

    We can continue to enjoy them in geek land. :-)

    I remember it was Old Nat who asked how close LDs were to hitting 10% but because of DKs and WNVs then it was not possible to calculate. It isn’t possible to do precisely but you can get closer than “11”.

    It doesn’t say that LDs are really ’11’ if there was a GE tmrw, god knows we debate the 11,12s from YG and 16, 18s from ICM. But if there’s a weighted vote and a weighted sample size that can be derived for likelihood to vote, then the stats can be calculated and narrowed.
    I don’t like my stats being called into question !! ;-)

    Anyone not interested can choose to walk on by…. :-)

  17. Mike N – Thankyou.
    Oldnat – Thanks for the link, I’ll have a look later. personally, I have got no problems with PR, for the very reasons that you say. It seems perverse to be against a system that will help you out! Anecdotally, I found myself in the drinking company, a few days ago, of a police officer, company director, one of the girls from our factory (single mum to boot!) two NHS employees and a council employee, who all claim to have voted Tory at the GE. Maybe reports of our death in Caledonia are a bit premature. I know that one chooses like-minded company, but I confess that I was surprised – it can’t be that they were all humouring me sureley!

  18. Hooded

    how very eminently democratic of you… are you sure your a Tory :P ? [teasing of course]

  19. Somhairle
    “I found myself in the drinking company, a few days ago, of a police officer, company director, one of the girls from our factory (single mum to boot!) two NHS employees and a council employee, who all claim to have voted Tory at the GE.”

    Er, your local Conservative association, then?

  20. Eoin,

    lol

    I nearly posted the Tory version – ‘cross over the the road and walk on by’

    ;-)

  21. Mike N

    Ha Ha – but strangely no!

  22. Going dark now

  23. Somhairle

    Not that local by-elections with an 18% turnout mean very much, but just to keep you happy –

    East Kilbride West (yesterday)

    Party, 1st Pref Vote Share, Change since 2007
    Labour , 41.4%, (0.8%)
    SNP , 27.9%, (-2.3%)
    Conservative , 19.7%, (5.7%)
    Scottish Green , 4%, (0.2%)
    East Kilbride Alliance , 3.4%, (-0.8%)
    Liberal Democrats , 3.4%, (-3.7%)

  24. @SOMHAIRLE
    Your comment regarding defence in the event of Scottish Independence is an interesting one. It always seems that the left leaning powers that be up there see only jobs. Do we need Aircraft Carriers? Well they provide jobs on the Clyde. Do we need fast jets based up north to counter Russian flyovers? Well the bases provide jobs. In other the needs of the armed forces dont really come into it compared to the needs of the Scottish workforce. The Anti-Nuclear stance gets a bit confused up against jobs at Faslane also. If independence does occur, what will happen to the Scottish Regiments? Recruits could still join the army, but would we need Scots regiments?

  25. @Roland Haines

    Well that was a coincidence… it can’t be a common :) name.

  26. Sorley Boy,

    For a blue you have a cracking name :) Especially suited to this time of year the festival of Samhain is just about to get going here in Ireland :)

  27. ROLAND HAINES

    Defence – It’s much simpler than that.

    We already pay our whack for stupid defence/imperialist war mongering by Westminster. All we want is that, since the money is going to be wasted anyway, we’d rather that our share was wasted up here!

    An independent Scotland wouldn’t need a large Defence Force, and our taxes could then fall, or be put to better use.

  28. @ simply means “at”.

    As in john.smith at webaddress.co.uk.

    Welcome Somhairle,

    A Tory who wants independence for Scotland. How I wish I’d had you around here about a year ago when I was arguing that independence might actually move Scotland to the right….

  29. @BILLY BOB
    I shall change it first thing Monday to , De’Harcourt – Spencer – Haines, just for you.

  30. Come off it OldNat..

    An independent Scotland would be yearning to form an alliance with the French and invade England, surely?

    (Joke)

  31. OldNat,

    You would not need any defence force. The Irish navy they say is only navy in the world where you get hom ein time for dinner. I’d imagine Albana would be something similar. as for resources, you have an infinite amount of renewable energy. Theoretically, the only way is up for the Scottish economy. You could bottle water and sell it ot the sassenach. T’wud make you a quer penny.

  32. @ Eoin

    Scotland would need it’s own defence budget. Well it would if it joined the EU, as that is needed to be part of the EU.

    I think it’s something like 1% of GDP must go towards defence, as you are required to protect and defend, any EU state which is attacked

  33. Frankly, if we could just all agree that barbaric dictators in the second and third world should be allowed to do whatever they like to their populations, none of us would need armed forces..

  34. Apart from countries always look outside their borders eventually Neil.

    Armed forces are there to stop others attacking you, not just for you to attack other people.

  35. Apart from the Falklands, I can’t think of a square inch of British territory that faces a direct risk of overt military attack from anyone at all.

  36. Neil A

    It wasn’t that long ago that Eoin was urging me to join him in attacking England again. Though with only two of us, we wouldn’t even get as far as Derby (the West Coast Rail line would doubtless be closed). :-)

  37. Alan,

    You can get round that… search and rescue etc.. civil defense corps (but dont use them for fighting).

    Anecdote alert: Ireland uses its defence corps to lease out as extras in movies. A few of my mates in the free state army were extras in Braveheart for example… Much better than deploying them in Basra or Kandahar.

  38. AlanR, {see the link: now that is the way to deploy an army, Irish style :) }

    h ttp://www.amusingfacts.com/facts/Detail/braveheart.html

  39. @OldNat,

    I just had a “Mouse That Roared” moment…

  40. @Eoin,

    I think I’m right in saying that the RoI’s photogenic squaddies were used in Saving Private Ryan as well. The jobs of tax perks, beautiful terrain and a Neutral army with nothing better to do….

  41. @Eoin,

    I think I’m right in saying that the RoI’s photogenic squaddies were used in Saving Private Ryan as well. The joys of tax perks, beautiful terrain and a Neutral army with nothing better to do….

  42. Arrgh sorry for double post (ignore the first version – minor typo – thought I’d caught it before it went)..

  43. Eoin

    Somhairle is actually the dog’s name. The great Gaelic poet was the headmaster at the school many of my pals went to. The dog doesn’t actually mind me pretending to be him, as he agrees with me anyway!

  44. Sorley,

    There is an even older Somhairle, Sorley Boy MacDonnell. He brought some very fine redshanks to Ireland with him in the 16th Century

  45. Neil A,

    thanks for that snippet.

  46. Old Nat,

    I was thinking of the Flying Scotsman. Start at Aviemore, and pick up a clan in every stop along the way… finishing in Rochdale and recruiting Mrs Duffy as our stanrd bearer?

  47. @Éoin……….So it was you who chose that bigoted woman, I thought it was Sue Nye. :-)

  48. @OLD NAT
    A good plan, I should of guessed by looking at Eire. A benefit of being a small nation with no enemies.

  49. ROLAND HAINES

    ” A benefit of being a small nation with no enemies.”

    Didn’t you see QT last night? Dimbleby is no friend!

  50. Ken,

    What the flock are you talking about ? :) She was a horrible woman :( Poor gordy!

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