New YouGov Welsh poll

There is a new YouGov poll of Welsh assembly voting intentions for ITV. The topline figures, with changes from the last monthly poll, are as follows:

Constituency: CON 19%(-3), LAB 44%(nc), LDEM 9%(-2), PC 21%(+2)
Regional: CON 18%(-2), LAB 40%(-1), LDEM 9%(-3), PC 23%(+4)

At both regional and constituency level Plaid take second place from the Conservatives. On a uniform swing (and assuming Labour retake Blaenau Gwent now Trish Law is standing down) this would result in the Conservatives losing 4 of their 5 constituency seats to Labour (Monmouth would be the only hold). Add on the regional seats, where the Conservatives would get back some of the seats they lost at a constituency level, and the final result would be Conservatives 10 seats (down 2), Labour 31 seats (up 5), Lib Dems 5 (down 1), Plaid 14 (down 1) – giving Labour an overall majority for the first time.

519 Responses to “New YouGov Welsh poll”

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  1. 16 Months ago Labour got 20% in the European Elections in Wales.

    For this poll to have Labour at 44% is, well, an improvement :)

  2. If PC snatches the 2nd place from the Conservative, then Wales will be the 4th European region, after Scotland, Catalonia and Euskadi (Basque Country) where the national center-right party is third, after the socialists and the regionalists. A possible fifth example is Crete, where in the forthcoming (Nov. 7) regional election, the polls are actually as follows: Socialists 55 %, (it’s their strongest region, as Scotland is for Labour, they are always 1st even when they lose everywhere else) – New Regionalist List (“Battle for Crete”, a split from New Democracy) 15% – New Democracy (Conservative) 15% – Others (Left, Ecologists) 15%. Wait and see….

  3. Interesting, Anthony.

    Of course it goes without saying that the projected overall majority of two looks precarious – and would be within the margin of error – but the fact that Labour are likely to have improved their poll ratings between now and the assembly election suggests that an outright majority is on the cards.

  4. I got very close on my prediction for tonight’s YG (feeling smug).

    As for Wales, I don’t expect PC to stay ahead of the Tories indefinitely, but I certainly do expect a Labour majority government in Cardiff.

  5. Neil A – what is tonights you guv pls?

  6. neil A

    how close

  7. This poll reflects what we’re hearing on the doorstep. I don’t expect a Tory comeback. Once the public sector cuts take hold I expect Labour will edge upwards. Prediction – Labour majority next May.

  8. 41/39/12/8

    I had 40/39/12/9

  9. Anthony,
    I THINK Labour got a majority in Wales, even under AMS, in the first Assembly elections

  10. i think that now plaid are in second place the will be going from strength to strenght

    i predict touching 30 by late jaunuary

  11. they will

  12. At the last Assembly election, both Plaid and the Tories were on equal % points, and Plaid had the 2nd most seats, after Labour. So its not that suprising.

    Well 31 seats would be a majority for Welsh Labour, it is questionable if it be a workable majority, or if it would be desirable for Welsh Labour to go it alone.

  13. @Chris

    Labour won only 28 seats out of 60 in 1999.

  14. CSR is clearly not gifting reds a lead. Blue went under 40% five times in September. Ever since Child Benefit, they have not been under 40% once…

    If Ed ‘gets it’ (and I think HE does), he needs policies. Living in the Shadow of Mandleson et al. will do him no favours. He won as a convictionist, he should contest this electoral cycle as a convictionist.

    Afterall, his philosophy is genuinely what is best for Britain. He should not hide that.

  15. Well done Neil A (you were quick).

    I was almost as lucky. It does seem that Con has a permanent 40 [us on YG for the moment. We would all like a change, just for something to discuss, but it seems unlikely now, barring an Event. Cracking down on benefit people is still popular.

  16. @Eoin,

    I think there is a bear trap there for EM though. As we’ve discussed before, the CSR itself was so widely trailed by tactically minded Tories like Osborne that it was almost an anti-climax.

    The cuts themselves won’t be. They can’t help but be inherently unpopular with almost everybody. Many people will adopt a “blitz-spirit” attitude, and certain people may not be too badly affected personally. But I have no doubt the country will recoil in pain.

    EM needs to be ready to exploit that pain. Too many specifics and too many concessions right now might handicap him. If I were him I’d keep my powder dry, repeat the “Tory Cuts” mantra and avoid outlining detailed policies. Use the benefit of Opposition.

    Then, once Labour have pulled 5% or more ahead, start talking like a PM in waiting, and grandly, solemnly talking about his plans to “put things right”.

  17. Eoin,

    “Afterall, his philosophy is genuinely what is best for Britain. He should not hide that”

    Very unlike you. And with such conviction?
    It seems the country don’t yet share your view…..

  18. Neil,

    As you know for a month now I have said reds will not takeover blue.

    My suspicion is that as a country the UK is on balance quite intelligent. DC found that, partly, to his detriment in MAy 2010. Had he just been honest about the whole sheebang, I am tempted to think he would have had a majority.

    Honesty is consistently the value most sought after from the public in their politicians. I’d vote for a David Davis or an Anne Widdecombe long before a chameleon.

  19. EM must await a bandwagon to roll by before jumping on it.

    After it does, and he does, he gets 10% lead as soon as you can say ‘working class notice drop in income’.

  20. EOIN

    “Honesty is consistently the value most sought after from the public in their politicians”


  21. richard,

    I am going out on a limb here, so correct me if I am wrong- but I think you disagree with me? :P

    Perhaps it is because your lot can’t spell the word (says Eoin as he visualises VAT posters). :P

  22. Eoin, I assume you were TIC. In fact DC almost blew it by looking too soft. You do remember the Con launch. ‘We all have to be nice to each other. We are going to be good Samaritans’.

    It was an attempt to banish the ‘nasty’ image that went too far from an electoral standpoint.

  23. Eoin
    “I’d vote for a David Davis or an Anne Widdecombe long before a chameleon.”

    Well said. Likewise I’d rather vote for Dennis Skinner than a Tory who fiddled his expenses.

  24. Correct me if I’m wrong someone, but am I right in thinking that in Britain today, it is a viable life strategy to live purely on benefits, from cradle to grave, without having any illness or disability ?

  25. Ken
    Not any more.

  26. Ken,

    It’s viable, but not attractive.

    For it to be attractive you have to supplement your benefits with a bit of undeclared work or some petty crime. Not that anyone would do such a thing…

  27. @ Éoin

    I like Ed M’s current approach. For the most part, he will openly say what his own position is reagrding issues e.g. Graduate Tax, AV etc. but then makes it clear that in the 2010 Labour Party, policy is a matter for debate & discussion – not rushing something out to suit the current news cycle.

    Policy on the hoof always has repercussions further along the way; I think that taking a year – or even more – to develop robust policies, will be the smart thing to do. 8-)

  28. Chris – in the first elections in 1999 they only got 27. In 2003 they almost got a majority, wih 30 out of 60 seats.

  29. Ken
    To which theme does your comment relate?

  30. @ Éoin

    I said: I think that taking a year – or even more – to develop robust policies, will be the smart thing to do.

    Whereas, me giving AV as an example was a dumb thing to do – cos in a year’s time, it’ll be all over. ;-)

  31. In an unusual turn up for the books, I complete agree with Amber…

  32. @Eoin,

    If Labour aren’t ahead in the polls by April (let’s say, the average YG score for 01/04/11-30/04/11) then I’ll give £10 to CAFOD. If they are ahead, you can give £10 to Help for Heroes. Deal?

  33. the conservatives and the liberals will see a big fall in support in wales next may and there will be ahuge increase in labour vote

  34. Strange that Plaid’s vote is the only one going up yet they stand to lose a seat here.

    Anyway with only 60 seats on offer really only a tiny Labour majority is possible unless they stay out of power for another 18 year stretch. Even with a majority not much will change with unhelpful (to put it mildly) parties in power in westminister and not much money to spend.

  35. @Wanderingwelshman,

    Do you mean compared to the last Assembly vote or compared to where we are now?

  36. Looking at tonight’s YouGov poll, Labour really are making no impression whatsoever. I’m starting to doubt my own prediction that Labour would shortly take the lead and hold on to it for a couple of years. Ed Miliband really is a lightweight (his commons performances are simply hopeless – he looks and sounds like an inexperienced 6th form prefect in a school debate club) and he could not have picked a worse Shadow Chancellor in Alan Johnson (I mean the man admits he knows nothing about economics! And it shows!). The dream team (if one goes back to an analogy used for Neil Kinnock and Roy Hattersley – they may not have ultimately got elected, but at least they established a double digit lead in mid-term) would have been David Miliband and Ed Balls. If Labour are to make any impression during this Parliament (and I hope they don’t!), then they need to find some way of getting rid of EM in the same way the Conservatives got rid of IDS. I remember how totally depressed I was when IDS was elected leader of the Conservatives. I imagine Labour activists must feel just like I did then (I just gave up for a couple of years until he’d gone! I refused to have anything to do with it and washed my hands of it all. I just said to myself – if the party wants to self destruct then let them get on with it). I wonder if the Labour Party has any sense of self preservation to be as ruthless as the Conservatives were in getting themselves back on the right track. I suppose for the sake of our democracy one has to say we hope so. Any society without an effective opposition soon goes haywire.

  37. @Howard…………..Your 10-34 post. :-)

  38. @ Wandering Welshman

    the conservatives and the liberals will see a big fall in support in wales next may and there will be ahuge increase in labour vote
    Especially if IDS keeps telling all the Welsh unemployed to get on the bus to Cardiff – where there is 8% unemployment & about 500 seasonal jobs available, roughly half of which would require own transport because of the hours. :-(

  39. @ Neil A

    In an unusual turn up for the books, I complete agree with Amber…
    :-) That AV was a dumb example… ;-)

  40. I notice that these polls suggest that the Lib Dems will ‘only’ lose one of their six Welsh Assembly seats. I don’t know much about Welsh politics, but will the LDs feel that they have got off quite lightly with that kind of result? As a LD member it’s got to the point where 12% in the latest YouGov feels like good news!

  41. eoin

    sorry had to change computers, the bedroom one is naff

    yes, i disagree

    i would very much like to agree with you on this. i would like to belive that really bad leaders are elected because they fool the public, but i know the truth is that the public wants to be fooled, i know that the public wants to be lied to

    think back to before the election, which one of the parties was honest with the public about the challenge facing the country. the answer is none, no one dared to be the bearer of bad news, no dared to face the wrath of an electorate forced to actually think about the issues, and no wonder if they had to make informed decisions they would also have to take responsibility

    take the case of blair you and i might despise him for being economical with the truth but that’s not why he became unpopular with the public. he lost, he led the country into war and he failed, if he had succeeded he would be PM today

    ok your go

  42. @ JamesW

    The Labour Party aren’t in the habit of removing their leader once he’s been [s]elected. The shadow cabinet will be shuffled in two years because that’s what we do. Will AJ survive as SC? That’s anybody’s guess until we are past the half way marker. 8-)

  43. For a bit of context, here is a Welsh poll from a year ago today;

    Constituency: CON 25%, LAB 32%, LDEM 12%, PC 24% Regional: CON 27%, LAB 30%, LDEM 11%, PC 21%, BNP 4%, Green 3%

    What is shows is that actually the LD and PC votes aren’t the big movers. The big swing is pretty much Tory to Labour, which I’d say is a direct effect of switching over in the Big Chair.

  44. Neil A

    What it says to me is that the Welsh are a lot of workshy layabouts who panic when they realise that the nasty Tories might actually cut the benefits that the English taxpayer pays for. (IMO)

  45. @ Neil A

    Thanks. Interesting comparison.

    Confirms my hunch that, whilst the latest figures aren’t good for the LDs in Wales, they aren’t apocalyptically bad…

  46. I wonder if YouGov ever does England-Only polling? With these swings to Labour in Wales and Scotland, presumably the English Tories are doing well given the GB wide picture?

  47. @Pete B,

    Whatever the Welsh are, they certainly aren’t workshy. A little state-sector dependent, maybe, but I lived there for two years and work is in the bones.

  48. @David,

    I think the problem is that the LDs are being compared with their dizzy heights in the mid to high twenties just before the election. On the whole the LD score has been in the high teens over the past few years, so the fall is not so dramatic.

  49. Pete B

    “the English taxpayer pays for”

    Always the same nonsense.

    What you actually mean is that revenues from the UK’s top economic producers (London/SE and Scotland), and an immense amount of borrowing are redistributed.

    Still some people like to feel that they are victims – a bit pathetic though.

  50. eoin

    i’m going to commit heresy!!
    i think that clegg might be very good for the dems long term

    ok i know i deserve to be burnt at the stake

    but consider this, people have often said ” those libs they are really nice but…………..” what people are trying to express is the fear that the libs just don’t have the guts to govern, that the libs are airy fairy, too airy fairy to have a finger on the button. all the what ifs,

    clegg has toughened up the dem image, he has given the public the idea that the dems can be ruthless. and that is an important quality that voters look for when choosing a govt

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