The full tables for YouGov’s Sunday Times poll are now up on the YouGov website here.

The questions on the spending review have results very much in line with YouGov’s poll straight afterward Osborne’s announcement – time to digest newspaper reactions and an extra day’s new coverage don’t seem to have changed opinion as they sometimes do. 43% thought the announcements the government made were right, 43% wrong, 45% thought they went too far, 43% thought they got the balance right or didn’t go far enough (33% and 10% respectively). 51% thought they were unfair, and 45% continue to blame the last Labour government the most compared to 17% blaming the coalition.

One notable change from last week is to perceptions of who will suffer most from the cuts. A week ago YouGov found that 48% thought middle income households would suffer the most, ahead of low-income households on 35%. Presumably this was the result of the child benefit announcement and, perhaps, the tuition fees announcement. This week YouGov repeated the same question and people saw the poorest as likely to suffer the most by 48% to 36% (only 6% think the rich will suffer the most).

Looking at the polls on the spending review as a whole there seems to be a pretty coherent pattern. People are either evenly divided or positive about the cuts themselves, evenly divided over their size, and continue to see them as both unavoidable and more the fault of Labour than the Conservatives. However, they also tend to see the way the coalition have carried them out as unfair, and expect the poor to suffer more than the rich.

On other questions in the YouGov poll, the majority of respondents supported the decision to protect the NHS and schools from cuts, but opposed the decision to protect international development. 70% expect to be worse off from the changes.

There was little sympathy for the BBC – 48% thought the freeze on the licence fee and the end of government funding for the World Service got the balance about right, 31% thought the BBC should face larger cuts, with only 13% thinking the cuts went too far.

There is a continuing appetite for banker-bashing. We asked people if they thought George Osborne had succeeded in getting right what he called the balance between making the banks pay their share and not driving them abroad. Only 5% thought Osborne had gone too far, 31% thought he had got it right, a majority (52%) thought he had not gone far enough and taxes on banks should be even higher.

There was also a BPIX poll in the Mail on Sunday. The quoted shares of the vote in the paper are CON 35%, LAB 37%, LDEM 10%… but this implies others at 18% which would be a sharp contrast with other pollsters. In the past the Mail on Sunday have published figures from BPIX that weren’t repercentaged to exclude won’t votes, so this could be the case here, meaning all three parties are actually higher. BPIX don’t publish tables so we’ll never know.


349 Responses to “YouGov/Sunday Times post CSR poll”

1 2 3 7
  1. Anthony,

    Express stable and Scot on Sunday are carrying another Scotland (Holyrood) poll. Can you confirm it is separate to the midweek one? The sub-questions would certainly indicate so. It makes good reading for Salmond’s Scots.

  2. I don’t have much to do with Scottish polling, so I’m not sure. I think we have done more than one in the last week, but I’m not sure which bits went to which clients, or whether both had voting intention.

  3. They both had according to press reports.

    As I have been predicting since 2007, the Greens recover what they lost last time as a result of SNP tactics. All of it in fact.

    The Socialists have given up politcs to spend more time with their lawyers and the Conservatie vote is going nowhere except the crematorium. Since only the hard core remain, what the UK government does will not affect them.

    LibDems are down, but maybe not enough to lose their safe constituency seats so long as they field incumbents. Lab votes could be down [Gray poor leader] in votes and SNP up [first class ministers] yet Lab could “win” by losing list seats to no more than 5 greens in total.

    If Libdems lose 3 seats to the Greens, and SNP 2, Lab is in govrenment.

  4. Eoin
    Good reading for Salmond’s Scots? Why so?
    I think the article says “Labour’s lead stays solid” ?
    Certainly it is going to be a fight and no walk over if ever anyone thought it was. The snp strategy is clearly to monster Iain Gray and attack Labour for possible tax increases. It will I think be an extremely acrimonious campaign. Note MP Wishart’s call for the snp to get its hands dirty. It is interesting that you call the snp, “Salmond’s Scots”.
    I don’t know if SoS paid for this poll. If so it would indicate strong preference for snp given the questions. Posters here may want to note A Goldie’s comments about the Tories shift on position on entering coalition. I don’t think anyone believes that the tories would coalesce with Labour so who can they be thinking about?

  5. Those of us down south would be interested with the figures please…

  6. @Colin – “Andrew Rawnsley – Observer”

    For more on the Mellon/Snowden comparison (NYT article cited by Billy on the last thread):

    h
    ttp://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/oct/24/william-keegan-osborne-most-dangerous-chancellor

  7. Jack

    Scotland on Sunday article here:

    ht tp://scotlandonsunday.scotsman.com/politics/Alex-Salmond-beats-Iain-Gray.6596183.jp

    Details on YouGov site here:

    ht tp://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/YG-Archives-Pol-ScotsmanVI.21.10.10.pdf

    Anthony, please thank whoever is putting the weekend results up for Sunday.

  8. Barney,

    Well on personality politics Salmond is significantly ahead of Gray. (God luv him, what a Surname). Anyways, I’ll get the express link for you.

    At the minute, I have it that ever 6 votes leave yellow, one goes to greens, one goes to reds, one goes to blue, three go to the SNP… crude estimate I know, but it is all you have when you are looking at the overall VI %s.

    I am just in work, so give me a little while to look at the data.

  9. Roger,

    Ignore that data it is for the first scottish poll. There has been one since it.

  10. Roger,

    I’ll get more when I can on it but that’s the best I can do for the mo.

    h ttp://www.dailyexpress.co.uk/posts/view/207245/Poll-shows-backing-for-full-economic-powers-as-cuts-loom/

  11. Barney/John B,

    This article will interest the both of you. Good news for Salmond surely?

    h ttp://scotlandonsunday.scotsman.com/news/Tories-spark-new-surge-for.6576551.jp

  12. Eoin

    Yes and no. I think it’s the same poll (sample size is the same) but only the VI figures on the YouGov site at the moment.

  13. Roger,

    That pdf has been on YouGov’s site for days, I can assure you. Express say their’s is exclusively commissioned. YG ‘may’ have used the same 1405 for both papers sets of questions (a cross fertilization of sorts) but they are two separate polls.

    The one you posted was put up on the website on the 21/10/10.

  14. The BPIX poll field data were acquired at the same time as YouGov’s.
    Assuming the assumption about non-voters is correct (???) then we have another pollster with LD a bit higher then YG is polling. Also the trend that I incorrectly forecast :-( but glad I was wrong on LD at 9 :-) may have begun.

    We shall see tomorrow evening if YG follows BPIX but it only needs an item of really bad economic news from home or abroad to set the Lab lead in stone.

    I still feel that LD can go lower if NC does not work very hard to stop the rot. I had expected CH with environmentally encouraging news to do the trick for greenie LDs , but instead he has achieved the reverse with his perhaps realistic but definitely not ‘greenie appealing’ nuclear proposals.

  15. Could someone help me on economics please?

    Is the renewed QE (when it occurs), a deliberate attempt to drive down the value of the pound?

  16. Eoin

    Terminology confusion. I call it the same poll if it’s based on the same data collection, which I think this is. I was actually looking at the SoS data which does match exactly, but the sample size in the Express is the same as well.

    Given that Express Newspapers are notoriously tight, I assume they piggybacked their questions on the same poll as a separate polling exercise would presumably cost a lot more. Seems to be the fashion this week (see ComRes).

  17. Roger,

    A good explanation, I suspect you are correct. The 1405 if it is the one sample had four separate components, each receiving a different article of coverage.

    1. The vast majority of Socttish voters want tax raising powers that go beyond Calman (even a majority of reds)

    2. The next support for independance has improved 14% since it was last asked (Which was May I tink)

    3. Gray trails Salmond, significantly, in the personality stakes

    4. SNP, Greens and Reds all make gains in the polls as Lib vote collapses. There is every chance the Greens will soon overtake them in the regional list.

  18. eoin

    IMHO YES YES YES

    how else do you get an export led recovery

  19. *The net support

  20. RiN,

    Thanks for that. Carry that through to its logical conclusion for me? That is to say, what if every country does it? One minro question of historical geekery if you don’t mind, didn’t it once upon a time damage national prestige to devalue your currency? Are those days gone?

  21. Eoin/Roger
    Same poll surely?
    Has it been done in two parts to get two contrasting headlines? On VI, Labour get big plurality over SNP
    On personality and tax snp get hope?
    In the SOS, John McTernan (ex-spin doctor for Labour) has an interesting article about the challenge for Labour.
    But Eoin do remember that the figures are saying Labour do well, SNP badly
    There is an analysis of the VI on the blog Better Nation from a pro-independance/green perspective.

  22. eoin

    the American QE2 might be more to do with the mortgage industry on the brink of blowing up, AGAIN

    but it will also depress the dollar, something that has just come to me while i type is that the british QE might be simultaneous with the american, now that is what i call spooky, amber assures me that britain is not playing the role of the loyal deputy, but………………………

  23. Barney,

    I offer you a respost of Stuart Dickson’s figures. He’s usually pretty consistnet and rigorous with his forecasts:

    Holyrood voting intention – constituency vote (FPTP)
    (+/- change from YouGov/Mail on Sunday, 31st August – 3rd September 2010)
    Lab 40% (-1)
    SNP 34% (+5)
    Con 14% (-2)
    LD 8% (-3)
    oth 5% (n/c)
    Holyrood voting intention – regional vote (AMS)
    (+/- change from YouGov/Mail on Sunday, 31st August – 3rd September 2010)
    Lab 36% (n/c)
    SNP 31% (+5)
    Con 15% (n/c)
    LD 8% (-4)
    oth 10% (-2)

    My own take on the poll is the potential damage to the Liberals (see below)

    The End of the Liberal Democrats in Scotland?
    There is now increasing evidence that the LDs are all but finished in Scotland as a political force. YG’s political tracker from 2005 covers the LD % in the headline (Westminster), Constituency, and Regional (list) vote. In all three categories the LDs are setting new records for the depths they have sunk to in VI polls.
    Westminster their 7% in the recent poll is a full 4% below their previous worse performance.
    2. In the regional LDs 8% is a full 3% below their previous worse performance.
    3. In the constituency vote the LDs 8% is a full 3% below their previous worse.
    __________________________________________________________________
    • That their previous worse performance occurred so recently means in effect that the collapse in most cases is even bigger that the 3-4% below the threshold.
    Perhaps worse of all, Scotland used to be a growth area for LD support. In May 2005 Charles Kennedy’s leadership saw the party attract 23% of the Scottish vote in the Westminster election. With LD figures of 7%, and the Greens climbing to 6% (regional), are we seeing the eclipse of the Liberal Democrats?

  24. @Eoin

    The US has deliberately used and will continue to use QE to push the dollar lower to gain competitive advantage. The UK policy on the pound seems to have been one of benign neglect for the last three years. Our own QE has helped in this regard but we started a lazy devaluation well before that. The old developed nations are all in the same boat. Basically past their sell-by date. Individually and collectively they are using QE and interest rates to latch on to the dynamisn and success of the developing countries like Brazil,India and China.
    UK QE. Deliberate or just convenient?

  25. Aleks/RiN,

    Fascinating. Any comment I could offer would be ill informed, but it seems quite unprecedented in this free-market capitalist age. Is it protectionism by the back door? Will it continue? Is the Euro now an utterly failed venture?

  26. Eoin
    If we are looking at the same figures, the Green VI on the list has got off the floor but is still below the last election I think. Greens here are not over-whelmed with optimism. The biggest issue in terms of outcome would seem to me to be the consistency of Labours support from constituency to list. Labour have always I think won a majority in FPTP but their voters have sometimes looked at other options for the list where you need a lot of votes to get a Labour MSP elected.
    Again to stress for objectivity, these are better VI than labour has I think had in any Scottish Parliamentary election
    BTW In the Westminster VI Labour infeasibly win 2 more, SNP one maore and remarkably Tories 3 more all at expense of Lib Dems down 6

  27. Both Will Hutton and William Keegan in today’s Observer make thoroughly depressing reading. The former thinks we are in for years of misery and the latter characterises Osborne as the most dangerous chancellor since the notorious Philip Snowden in th 1930s.

    The number of respected commentators across the serious media agreeing that the coalition’s deficit rerduction strategy is a very considerable gamble especially when there are alternatives.

    Coalition ministers have little experience or understanding of ordinary people as they are mostly millionaires and they are going to be surprised at the degree and intensity of the protests that are going to build up over the coming months. There will be accusations of harsh callousness when people on housing benefit in inner London are uprooted to Luton and Reading (amongst other locations) dumped in B & Bs whilst their children’s lives are seriously disturbed as they are forced to change schools and suddenly find that their friendship circles have ceased to exist.

  28. eoin

    other countries are being threatened with a big stick, and will not be allowed to devalue, you might of noticed the mini debate i was having with amber

    it only damages your national prestige if a red govt does it

    but seriously, devaluation leads to inflation because imported goods cost more. with zero interest rates it might be a good idea to take your money out of the bank and stuff it under your mattress or better yet, buy gold. hell, shiny beads might be a better bet than paper money, on the other hand at least with paper you always have something to blow your nose with.

  29. Barney,

    Here are the Westminster changes from May 2010.

    Re Scotland YouGov: The figures above are correct for the constituency and for the regional votes. So the three main conclusions still stand.

    • In addition YG also included a headline voting intention (Westminster). The results were as follows [including changes from May G/E]:
    _______________________________________________________
    Labour 44% (+2%)
    SNP 26% (+6%)
    Libs 7% (-12%)
    Cons 18 % (+1%)
    _________________________________________________________
    • The main conclusion to draw from that is in a manner akin to Wales, it is the nationalist party that is benefitting the most from LDs coalition with Blue. The double digit losses since May in the headline, fit with the losses reported for YouGov Wales.

    _______

    In addition, the Greens got 4% in the regionals in 2007. They are now up to 7%. That is quite buoyant I think.

    ____

    For the record, I have always been of the opinion that May 2011 will see reds return to power in Holyrood. I simply think there is room for other populist and leftist parties to gain also (Greens, SS, SNP)

  30. eoin

    the euro has a strong dynamic country at it’s heart. i belive that it is safe, but i must admit i am a partisan when it comes to the euro

  31. Eoin
    No issues with S Dickson’s figures. If you want to say this is better for SNP or Greens than another time I have no problem but I am looking at electoral outcomes and it doesn’t look great for them at present though anything can happen. In the scotlandvotes site Greens I think go up to 4
    I notice you are not putting stress on the figures for opposition to the council tax increases mooted by labour?
    As others have posted, killing off the Lib Dems will be harder than some will think but it does look dire wherever there is a clear competitor

  32. @DAVIDB
    “There will be accusations of harsh callousness when people on housing benefit in inner London are uprooted to Luton and Reading (amongst other locations) dumped in B & Bs whilst their children’s lives are seriously disturbed as they are forced to change schools and suddenly find that their friendship circles have ceased to exist.”
    ———————————
    I hope there will be protests but the CSR has hardly caused a ripple in voting indication. So maybe few folk care about the misfortunes of others. This must be good news for the coalition.

    This does not alter the fact that Big Society looks (IMHO) more like Polarised Society with the haves doing ok and the have-nots joining the refugee lines heading for places where they will be less of a burden on the ‘worthier citizens’.

    However, some may change their minds when the worker bees are in short supply and essential services start to suffer. Or maybe not :(

  33. david B

    being uprooted to luton is a fate worse than………….

  34. Barney,

    Where is the article link for the council tax material? I haven’t seen it? Ta.

  35. eoin

    switch yer telly on

    auld firm match

  36. RiN,

    Richard, its killing me but I am in work so I have to settle of a real time update. We’d take a draw I think? :)

  37. It looks like those who said that the cuts were “priced-in” to the polls were totally correct. People are clearly thinking about the cuts and their perceptions are changing, but the fundamental effects of the idea of spending cuts has already been priced-in.

    Of course, that doesn’t mean there might not be more effects to come, as the cuts per se actually happen.

  38. Billy Bob

    Thanks for the Keegan piece.

    It is interesting how polarised these economists have become.

    We seem to have the two opposing views being acted out on either side of the Atlantic.

    Obama’s Keynsian ” Infrastucture” spending binge has thus far failed to improve employment & -as has been said upthread-another dose of that magic elixyr QE seems in prospect.
    How soon before $1.3 trillion annual deficits & 95% of GDP Debt demand some fiscal tightening?
    He is going to lose support on Nov 2 -and 2012 is looming.

    Against that it’s early days over here.
    If you look at a timetable of the pain-it is spread ahead-some doesn’t click in till 2013.
    The private sector is generating jobs-the economy is growing-but slowly.
    GO/DC will know their fate I think round about the same time as Obama knows his.

    If you believe in polarised economists, then if Obama succeeds -they will be failing by then.
    If Obama fails-they might be seeing some success in private sector jobs growth.

    ….or maybe it won’t be like that at all-who knows ?

  39. Cozmo

    “the have-nots joining the refugee lines heading for places where they will be less of a burden on the ‘worthier citizens’. ”

    Or to put it another way :-

    People whose housing costs are paid by the taxpayer , will have to make the same choices which people who pay for their own accommodation make all the time-
    ie-where can I afford to live?

  40. Red C poll for ROI (changes from last election)

    Fine Gael 32% (+5%)
    Labour 27% (+17%)
    Fianna Fáil 18% (-22%)
    Sinn Féin 9% (+2%)
    Greens 4% (-1)

  41. Richard in Norway

    “the euro has a strong dynamic country at it’s heart. i belive that it is safe,”

    I don’t think things are quite that simple :-

    “In efforts triggered by the emergency rescue of Greece and fears of a cascade of national basket-cases, EU leaders had this year created a 440-billion-euro rescue fund — the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) — set to expire in 2013.
    Germany, which has been the biggest contributor to EU rescue efforts, favoured a temporary fund to ensure reining in spendthrift nations.

    But Merkel last week caved in to Sarkozy’s call for the facility to be made permanent to shore up Europe’s monetary union, which dates back to 1999.

    To meet the requirements of the German constitution, however, giving the EFSF eternal life requires a change to the Lisbon treaty, which currently outlaws EU member states from flying to the rescue of a bankrupt eurozone partner.

    “The summit will have to indicate how to create a credible mechanism, given concerns in Germany, which refuses to extend it unconditionally,” the diplomat said.

    Sarkozy for his part obtained a softening of already tentatively agreed sanctions against deficit offenders, which were supposed to be automatic but now would be more flexible while biting sooner.

    The deal has raised hackles across the bloc of half a billion people.

    “We’re not happy with what the French and the Germans did,” European Parliament spokesman for economic affairs John Schranz told AFP as lawmakers too prepared to mull the new rules this week.

    “We want sanctions to be heavy-hitting and automatic” as opposed to the watered-down vision agreed by Sarkozy and Merkel, he said.

    The sanctions climbdown has already been the subject of stern criticism from the head of the European Central Bank, the formal guardian of euro stability.

    Budgetary hawks also including the Netherlands, Sweden and Finland do not think the proposed new rules go far enough.

    Some in Berlin accuse Merkel of buckling, but others accuse EU finance ministers as a whole of getting “cold feet”.

    “It is a step backwards,” said Austrian conservative Othmar Karas.

    Worries are high too of opening a new Pandora’s Box in rewriting the Lisbon treaty, though some officials say the new rules could be simply written in when Croatia becomes the EU’s 28th member — which it hopes will be in 2012.

    But other members could pile up new demands in exchange for green-lighting the Franco-German accord.

    Non-euro Britain for example could come armed with a shopping list, even if senior EU officials insist sanctions will only apply to nations using the single currency.

    British Prime Minister David Cameron “will not support anything that involves a transfer of powers from Westminster to Brussels,” a government spokesman said.

    While Britain ratified Lisbon without a referendum, Cameron is already planning to bring forward legislation that would make any further dilution of “sovereignty” an issue requiring popular assent.”

    AFP

    Some fun to come yet I think ;-)

  42. Eoin
    Council tax
    This was a question on the SoS poll For coverage see snp web-site, brian taylor’s blog or eg my local paper Press and Journal 1964656
    This along with Salmond will be the snp’s flag=ship issue
    Interestingly backed by tories but opposed by Lib Dems
    I am off to campaign!
    On an issue of naked self-interest, on these figures I have a decent chance of being in the Scottish Parliament IMO of course

  43. colin

    all the economists are wrong, we are looking at a lost decade maybe more. i’m a little perverse in that i belive that GO is doing the right thing for the wrong reasons. i should qualify that GO is doing the right thing if you are only looking at orthodox options, my self i think it is time for some very unorthodox options

  44. @ Colin

    “Obama’s Keynsian ” Infrastucture” spending binge has thus far failed to improve employment”

    Not quite as simple as that, I’m afraid. Of the 6-700 billion stimulus package the large majority of that went towards tax cuts, securing financial institutions and other such things. Only a tiny little bit went towards infrastructure projects (most of which won’t start for a bit yet.) This was in part due to the Republican attitude of ‘we’re not voting for this because the presidents a (insert own word here)’ which kind of damaged the stimulus plan.

    Actually local governments in America have been cutting jobs and laying off people, so you could argue that they are actually going through an ‘austerity’ regime ;)

  45. Richard

    “all the economists are wrong”

    You can’t go wrong with that one ! ;-)

  46. @Colin
    Hopefully rents will come down. I have never understood why buy-to-let landlords should be able to obtain high rents, courtesy of us poor taxpayers!

  47. Anthony

    Something I meant to ask when these Scottish figures first came out. There was some concern raised about the big difference between the SNP figures before and after weighting (336 versus 226).

    Now I know that this isn’t an evil Sassenach plot to do down the Nats – but is it a side effect of something else? I’ve noted before the huge discrepancy between the pre- and post-weighting figures for the “Others” in all YouGov polls since July. It has since has occurred to me that the algorithm, that is used for sending out requests to participate in any particular poll, may be sending out say four times as many to those on the panel marked as having an “Other” party identification. Of course once the replies were received, the weighting would counterbalance to excessive numbers of Others asked.

    The object of this would be to give the Other’s figures greater “granularity” (as we’re supposed to say for “detail” nowadays). This would mean that the breakdown to Greens, UKIP, BNP etc was more reliable. It would also stabilise these figures so they did not jump from say 1% to 5% to 0% between polls on successive days because of innate sampling error.

    This process is fine if the underlying figure for “Others” remains relatively low and stable, but if there is a large real increase to one of the Parties in Others, then it will also get reduced by the weighting method, though not cancelled out entirely.

    Now normally, on Britain-wide polls, SNP and PC are included in “Others” and the process would apply to them. However when a Scotland-only poll is done the same process couldn’t be exactly the same. Apart from anything else, scaling up the SNP-id sample by 3-4 times would mean you were only asking Nats. But I wonder if there is something in the sampling algorithm (perhaps a variable that reduces the multiplier as the expected/previous party percentage gets less) that still sends out disproportionally more survey to SNP-id panel members. This is the only thing that I can think explains the discrepancy above.

    Unfortunately I couldn’t find any other Scottish examples since July (when the Others weighting discrepancy started) to show the same thing – the poll Eoin quotes above has no published weightings. So I’m working of a sample of one; but it would be interesting to know if something like this was happening (or if it’s an evil Sassenach plot :P )

  48. Lets also hope the observer also mentions the labour peers and mps which are also not short of a few quid.

    The ex mp Margery hodge would be alright that’s for sure.

  49. Billy

    “Of the 6-700 billion stimulus package the large majority of that went towards tax cuts, ”

    Taxes $275 billion
    New tax credit /Alternative minimum tax/Expanded child credit /Expanded earned income tax credit /Expanded college credit /Homebuyer credit /Home energy credit

    Spending $552 billion
    Aid to low income workers and the unemployed /Direct cash payments /nfrastructure /Energy /Health care /Education

  50. Valerie

    “Hopefully rents will come down. I have never understood why buy-to-let landlords should be able to obtain high rents, courtesy of us poor taxpayers!”

    Agreed

1 2 3 7