No doubt we will have plenty of post-CSR polls tonight.

We have already had two brief ComRes polls for the Indy and the BBC Daily Politics at the end of the week. ComRes found 59% thought the cuts “were unfair because they hit the poorest people”, but also (in the other poll) found a majority (52%) supporting the cuts with 39% opposed, a slightly more positive balance than the YouGov poll for the Sun. Neither had any voting intention figures.

The first Sunday poll to be published is by ICM for the News of the World. This has voting intention figures of CON 40%(+2), LAB 36%(+2), LDEM 16%(-2). Changes are from a fortnight ago. It’s the lowest Lib Dem and highest Conservatives scores from ICM since June (though it would be a very good Lib Dem score from any other pollster!).

On questions about the spending review itself people think the cuts were more unfair than fair by a narrow margin (45% to 42%), and 48% think people on low incomes will suffer the most, compared to 20% who think middle income earners will suffer most and 5% that high earners will. 60% agreed with the decision to protect the NHS, international development and schools from cuts (though we’ve seen in many pre-CSR poll that the public actually have mixed views on this – protecting the NHS is supported, International Development isn’t). On who would make the best Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne leads Alan Johnson by 38% to 28% – presumably there was a large body of don’t knows.

I’ll post again later when more polls appear, there is certainly the weekly YouGov poll for the Sunday Times to come, and it wouldn’t surprise me if there were others.

UPDATE: The YouGov/Sunday Times voting intention figures are CON 41%, LAB 40%, LDEM 10% – the same as YouGov’s immediate post-spending review poll for the Sun.


91 Responses to “More post spending review polls”

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  1. Anthony, is there a reason you’ve not been updating the table and weighted average on the right? Or is it just lack of time?

  2. About to do it now (thought I might wait till all tonight’s polls have appeared)

  3. Amber I have no record of a post CSR prediction from you

    Colin
    step down from the azure elysian fields and have a go man, do.

  4. On who would make the best Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne leads Alan Johnson by 38% to 28% – presumably there was a large body of don’t knows.
    ——————————————
    Osborne is chancellor & was shadow chancellor for how many years before taking office?

    Alan Johnston is shadow & has been in the job for fortnight, after being given the role in a move that surprised the socks off most Labour watchers.

    And the scores are only 38% to 28% in Osborne’s favour. Jeez Louise, Osborne will need to watch his back, if (when) the Conservative polling begins to drop below 36%. 8-)

  5. @ Howard

    I like your prediction & loathe Éoin’s – I am much too partisan to be able to make a sensible prediction.

    Julian thinks he has it in the bag; I will enjoy seeing either Julian or Éoin eat their shorts (speaking figuratively, of course). ;-)
    8-)

  6. Ladies are always higher in the DK column. I had not thought to see you there Amber.

  7. UNS moving in the , ‘Right’ direction after the CSR………..! :-)

  8. I have not heard from Old Nat so I will do one for him
    SNP 3% PC 2%
    APOAYHs 95%

  9. Howard,

    APOAYHs 95%

    Brilliant……:-)

  10. @ Howard,

    My prediction: There will be no difference! ‘Twill be the same as Thursday. :-(

  11. Anthony,

    There were three ComRes polls 19/21/22 respectively. The first was pre csr, for ITV, but I don’t think we covered it. They have now undertaken a year long contract for ITV Nuus.

  12. Amber
    The table I published ‘pre CSR’ did not include you. Would you be so kind as to remind me what it was please?

  13. @ Howard,

    I don’t think I gave you a pre-CSR; so I think I am barred from your contest, already. 8-)

  14. It strikes me that the average of polls has to include a correction for frequency of various contributors. I cannot remember if AW does this. Otherwise the right hand list at the top would have a bias.

  15. htt p://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/oct/23/nick-clegg-desert-island-discs

  16. Anthony gives weighting to polls by company and not by frequency in the strictest terms. That’s confusing, yes, but the bottom line is that it does not favour YG polls over ICM’s say.

  17. howard

    what does APOAYHs mean

  18. Howard, my prediction was meant to be post CSR,.

  19. No you are not Amber -you might have been away. Only the, er, yellows, or ‘far too good to lower themselves’ are getting away with not having a go.

    Do you you remember the lady who did this before? I’ve forgotten her non-de-plume but she was special.

  20. PamF

    I have you at 40 42 9 hope that’s OK

  21. @ Howard

    The lovely Al J – I think of her every time Alan Johnson is mentioned. 8-)

  22. I’m sticking with my pre-CSR prediction of 41 40 9…. YouGov due at 10pm?

  23. Rin N
    I think the being ex pat is preventing your memory being invigorated.

    Clue ‘plague’

  24. howard

    thanks

    a little appropriate for me i been reading about the US mortgage crisis all day. it seems that the banks don’t have legal title to all those dodgy loans and lots of Americans “could” be about to get free homes, but the banks would be f*cked

  25. @Howard………He certainly targeted mine ! :-)

  26. Generally, the polls still show a modest Tory lead over Labour – and the spending review doesn’t seem to have fundamentally changed that configuration.

    It looks likely that a consistent Labour poll lead will not be sustained until the cuts actually do start to bite on the ground.

    As a Labour supporter, I’ve been reasonably encouraged by Ed Miliband’s performance as leader – he’s certainly exceeded my
    expectations so far – though I still feel a little uneasy watching him at PMQs as Cameron is more fluent and EM comes across a bit stiff – rather like a Michael Dukakis (or even an IDS with hair).

    Although we’ll probably see Labour leading throughout most of 2011, it still seems likely that the Tories will rally again before a 2015 General Election – especially if they can continue to sell the narrative that the cuts are the fault of the previous Labour Government (thus making the electorate fearful of the economic consequences of Labour returning to power).

  27. Julian :) :) Well Done! I’ll Leave you to post it.

  28. Post what ? I can’t find it

  29. Eoin, you just did!

  30. YouGov; CON 41%, LAB 40%, LDEM 10%
    :)

  31. YouGov – Con 41
    Lab40
    LD 10

  32. So, same as Thursday, yes? 8-)

  33. Julian,

    Something in the water? Or are you eating fairy cakes? Either way :) :)

  34. @Eoin
    I don’t know about fairy cakes but I’m not eating my shorts, that’s for sure.

  35. According to my table there are more winners than Julian in the post CSR stakes and congratulations to theml. If I misrepresented you, put it down to an extra glass of Chilean red.
    Rob S 42 39 12
    Valerie 41 38 11
    Julian G 41 40 10
    Howard 40 41 9
    R in N 41 40 10
    Eoin 44 38 10
    Ken 43 38 12
    Rebecca 42 39 10
    H’ded M 43 39 10
    Cozmo 39 41 9
    Alksndr 42 40 10
    Mike N 39 42 9
    Simple S 40 40 11
    Graham 41 40 10
    Syzygy 39 40 11
    Ghm BC 40 40 10
    Phil 40 41 10
    Neil A 40 41 10
    PamF 40 42 9
    MichaelV 41 40 9
    Sue M 39 41 10

  36. Well done Julian (or is it Wayne? ;-) )

    And a mini-triumph for the law of averages….

  37. I’m a Tory supporter, and have become a convert to Osborne.
    Nevertheless, a 10 point lead over the newly appointed Alan Johnson is not that great a lead.

  38. @ Éoin

    I think you are happy Julian ‘won’. Any budget bounce for the Cons would’ve come within a few days of the CSR. It hasn’t happened yet, so it’s looking like they will not get one.

    It also tells us that Labour’s 40% is not based on over-blown fears about the cuts. The actual CSR has done nothing to diminish Labour’s rapid rise back to electability.
    8-)

  39. I’ve seen plenty of headlines or assumptions that the poorest will be hit hardest by the ‘cuts’ – actually a rise in government spending in 2010-11 over 2009-10 – but haven’t seen any actual evidence. Perhaps I’ve been leading a sheltered life, but I can’t see anything that would particulaarly hurt the working poor. Benefit scroungers yes, but they can always get a job.

  40. What’s this talk of a “budget bounce” for the Tories? I certainly had no expectation that announcing the hardest cuts in living memory would give them a “bounce”. We were all assuming there would be a Labour bounce. Now we are supposed to think the Tories should be worried that their cuts didn’t boost the ratings? Expectation management at it’s worst! And retrospective!

  41. Pete B

    This site is not about what you opine, it’s about what the voters think. Have another look at what you just wrote. Is that what you think what the majority think? The polls say otherwise. Have a look at the the thread introductions.

  42. Amber,

    There is good news for red and blue.
    There is bad news for red and blue

    1. Teflon Tories are ruggedly over 40%.
    2. Reds minus policies command 10% more than May.
    3. Barring events this might be as good as it gets for blue. When I say this, I mean a sorta 42/38/12, whcih i think is what it will settle down to be in the next week.
    4. Red gain is coming from yellow, any recovery from yellow, will hurt us more.
    _____________________________________

    For 2015, this is finely poised. A 37/37/17 in May 2015, would be my half crazed guesstimate at this stage.

  43. @ Neil A

    I was referring to Éoin (44), Ken (43), Hooded Man (43) & Rebecca’s (42) predictions.

    Hence, my comment being posted @ Éoin.

    If: “Expectation management at it’s worst! And retrospective!” is [mis-] directed at me – IMO, you can eat your shorts. ;-)

  44. Yes Amber I think my own prediction is probably already in the make but as usual, jumping the gun.

    I cannot imagine a scenario of other than 37 44 9 (YG) by February but I imagine the extrapolation experts among us will be more accurate.

  45. Eoin,

    “Teflon Tories”

    Without getting into the comparisons between non-stick and weatherproof surfaces, I’d venture it’s more “Ronseal Tories”
    Does exactly what it says on the tin. They’ve said all along what they planned to do, they’ve now put more detail on the table, and arguments can rage about fairness, etc. – but no-one can be hugely surprised by the overall flavour of the CSR, some will think it’s better than expected, some worse, but the end result is pretty much “as we were”

  46. Hooded,

    Very true :)

    But we’ll get ya in the long grass :)

  47. @Hooded Man
    I agree. In a way we can say the CSR just reinforced everyone’s expectations. Anti-government voters had their worst expectations reinforced, pro-government voters had their best expectations reinforced and LDs had NC patting GO on the back and having a go at the IFS.

  48. Howard
    “This site is not about what you opine, it’s about what the voters think”

    Thank you so much for the advice. I obviously didn’t make my meaning clear enough. I’ll try to rephrase it in terms that more clearly link to the thread introduction.

    Despite the high proportion of poll interviewees thinking that the so-called cuts hit those on low incomes hardest; having studied the announcements, I cannot see why this should be. One possibility that has just occurred to me is that most people consider themselves poor, so if they think that they will be affected at all, they may assume that they are worst hit.

    As for the purpose of the site, I understood that it was to discuss aspects of polling, which I was doing, and not necessarily just engaging in pointless suppositions about what the poll percentages might be at some random time in the future. However, I am open to correctoon on this (by Anthony, not you).

  49. @ Howard,

    I think the crunch will come when banker & CEO bonuses are announced by a mischievous media; if they make a sharp contrast to the frozen or reduced income that the average family has, there will be a resurgence of the anger that was so fatal to Labour’s GE campaign.

    The Conservatives think that ‘bonus envy’ is all in the past; I think it probably isn’t. 8-)

  50. I suppose we have all noticed the personal blinder being played by DC? hear no evil, see no…………..

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