No doubt we will have plenty of post-CSR polls tonight.

We have already had two brief ComRes polls for the Indy and the BBC Daily Politics at the end of the week. ComRes found 59% thought the cuts “were unfair because they hit the poorest people”, but also (in the other poll) found a majority (52%) supporting the cuts with 39% opposed, a slightly more positive balance than the YouGov poll for the Sun. Neither had any voting intention figures.

The first Sunday poll to be published is by ICM for the News of the World. This has voting intention figures of CON 40%(+2), LAB 36%(+2), LDEM 16%(-2). Changes are from a fortnight ago. It’s the lowest Lib Dem and highest Conservatives scores from ICM since June (though it would be a very good Lib Dem score from any other pollster!).

On questions about the spending review itself people think the cuts were more unfair than fair by a narrow margin (45% to 42%), and 48% think people on low incomes will suffer the most, compared to 20% who think middle income earners will suffer most and 5% that high earners will. 60% agreed with the decision to protect the NHS, international development and schools from cuts (though we’ve seen in many pre-CSR poll that the public actually have mixed views on this – protecting the NHS is supported, International Development isn’t). On who would make the best Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne leads Alan Johnson by 38% to 28% – presumably there was a large body of don’t knows.

I’ll post again later when more polls appear, there is certainly the weekly YouGov poll for the Sunday Times to come, and it wouldn’t surprise me if there were others.

UPDATE: The YouGov/Sunday Times voting intention figures are CON 41%, LAB 40%, LDEM 10% – the same as YouGov’s immediate post-spending review poll for the Sun.


91 Responses to “More post spending review polls”

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  1. i think that 40,40,10 will be the base line for a long time. probably until campaigning starts for the locals/scottish/AV. of course there will be minor fluctuations but as i see it the mood of the country is settled until such time as something actually happens

  2. Eoin,

    lol

    You’re probably right, so next stop Flymo Tories…

  3. Pete B
    A good reposte. Thanks.

  4. howard

    who is this DC that you are talking about

  5. David Cameron, the Turquoise Pimpernel ;-)

  6. Wayne Rooney is now on £ 180,000 per week, add his numerous endorsements, ( minus a few due to his working class behavioural instincts ) and he’s on £220,000, as a banker I object to these excessive rewards, what about the poor and needy……oh yes, I forgot, they support Man U.

  7. Amber
    “I think the crunch will come when banker & CEO bonuses are announced by a mischievous media”

    I will refrain from Howard’s admonishment to me that the site is not about our own opinions, and instead engage with what you said.

    Bankers and CEOs should only get bonuses if they produce good profits for their companies. Few will earn as much as Wayne Rooney reportedly earns for kicking a ball about. Admittedly his skill might add slightly to the profits made by his employer, but does his job really compare with that of a CEO? Premiership footballers as a group probably earn more than most bankers.

  8. Amber,

    “David Cameron, the Turquoise Pimpernel”

    My wife pointed out on Wednesday his reddening face colour (not sure of source?).

    “Looks like a blo*dy lobster” were her words. You can tell she’s a fan….

  9. Ken
    Welcome. I was beginning to feel like Stanley Baker in ‘Zulu’

  10. @Eoin Clarke

    “4. Red gain is coming from yellow, any recovery from yellow, will hurt us more.”

    I’m not sure you can say this with the certainty with which you continually assert it. Constant repetition lends it no more plausibility, I’m afraid. As Richard in Norway commented on another thread, the composition of the voting intention percentages currently being expressed in the polls is made up, in my opinion, of a much more fluid combination of floating voters than you give credit for. Sure, a proportion of former Lib Dem supporters are now stating support for Labour but significant numbers may have also gone to the Conservatives too, and I suspect quite a few to don’t knows as well (or not prepared to express an opinion). Equally, I suspect many people who abstained (a much larger block of the electorate in May 2011 than any that supported one single party, by the way) are now responding with party preferences in these polls.

    I fear your hypothesis is too simplistic, relying as it does on crude arithmetic (i.e Lib Dem down 10, Labour up 10 = straight exchange of voters between the two parties. Quid pro quo, Lib Dem recover by 5, Labour down by 5). This is Bunko Booth psephology, Eoin my old mucker, and you need to go back to the drawing board with it. I lost faith in it when you peddled it so assiduously, and self assuredly, on these pages during the General Election. It was bunkum then and it’s bunkum now! Entertaining and diverting bunkum, though!!

  11. @Amber…………..David Cameron, Prime Minister ! Has a very comfortable ring to it, if I may say so. I suggest, in the interest of your health, that you get used to it, you’re going to be saying it for the next 10 yrs or so. :-)

  12. @Pete B…………….I’ll be Michael Caine, he was born in Rotherhithe and that’s where I live. :-)

  13. the US mortgage stuff looks scary

    it could be that QE2 is just a new bank bailout in the states

    the QE is rumoured to be $1,000,000,000,000. i’m not sure how many 0s there are in a trillion. that would be a big bailout

  14. In the six months prior to CSR blues average was 41%. In the three polls after CSR blues average was 41%. Hmmm….

    How can reds make their 40% stick, I wonder? I guess we will be watching unemployment and inflation figures with bated breath for months to come.

  15. @ Eoin

    Here’s an article for your deficit denying pleasure :):

    h ttp://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/22/opinion/22krugman.html?partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

  16. Billy,

    “But trendy fashion, almost by definition, isn’t sensible — and the British government seems determined to ignore the lessons of history.”

    Classic. Thanks a lot for that.

  17. eoin

    if there is a new crisis in the US, how easy do you think it will be for GO to blame that crisis for the lack of a private sector pickup

  18. @ Eoin

    You’re welcome – I thought you’d enjoy it :)

  19. @ Richard in Norway

    He can’t – if he blames the crash in America for a lack of pick-up then he concedes that Gordon was correct in stating that it was an international crisis, not simply a British one.

  20. I don’t think anyone is suggesting, or has suggested, that the crisis wasn’t international. The criticism is of Labour overspending over a long period, weakening the country’s fiscal position to the point where the only way to stimulate the economy was by pushing borrowing to breaking point.

    If a second crash occurs in the USA, having a Labour government in the UK with a slightly less ambitious deficit reduction plan would hardly have saved us from it’s impact.

  21. @ Neil A

    No, but DC in particular was trying his best to place near total blame on GB for the crisis when it occurred (fair enough in some senses) and refusing to except his excuses of “it’s an international crisis what can I do?”

    My point is that GO and DC can hardly flee to the same excuse if the private sector doesn’t pick up the way they expect it to (which was R in N’s question).

  22. @Billy
    I tried your link. Very interesting article in NYT, especially the final para :-

    ” What happens now? Maybe Britain will get lucky, and something will come along to rescue the economy. But the best guess is that Britain in 2011 will look like Britain in 1931, or the United States in 1937, or Japan in 1997. That is, premature fiscal austerity will lead to a renewed economic slump. As always, those who refuse to learn from the past are doomed to repeat it. ”

    It does seem that DC & Co have won the propaganda battle though. So most folk accept that the world is flat and we are all doomed to fall off the edge unless we offer sacrifices to the Gods Of The Markets. IMHO.

  23. @ Pete B

    I will refrain from Howard’s admonishment to me that the site is not about our own opinions, and instead engage with what you said.
    ———————————————————–
    Nobody, least of all Howard, minds folks giving their opinion on which events & issues will move public opinion & impact voting intention.

    I do not comment as to whether bonuses are bad or good, deserved or not deserved.

    I do not say whether I consider the public to be right or wrong in envying the bonuses of bankers, CEOs – or football players, per your example.

    Therefore I am not opining on the bonuses themselves or the envy/ outrage which they seem to cause; I am giving my opinion about a coming event which could have an effect on voting intention.

    Don’t you see the difference? 8-)

  24. I think we may be coming into a genuine two party fight, between Reds and Blues, with the Whig/Yellows being squee

  25. h ttp://diaryofabenefitscrounger.blogspot.com/2010/10/share-your-story.html

    PLEASE share this with anyone you think could help. Thanks so much. (Sorry Anthony :) )

  26. Anthony – You could always add me to your blogroll, then I’d probably be less annoying ;) You wouldn’t be the first, I’m really doing rather well.

  27. “Labour’s attacks on the government have so far failed to gain traction. The new shadow chancellor, Alan Johnson, will not get a serious hearing for Labour’s arguments until his party has restored its own economic credibility and that can’t start to happen until the opposition’s spokesmen and women stop sounding like people living in a fantasy universe in which there is no deficit to address and a Labour chancellor would have been able to announce free holidays in Barbados all round.”

    Andrew Rawnley- Observer:

    On the button :-)

  28. Sue,

    Just to say, I’ve been on your site a few times but couldn’t work out how to post as I don’t have an ID?
    Anyway, think what you have created is great, and hope it goes from strength to strength.

  29. Don’t usually take anything on the Daily Mail website seriously but was heartened by one of their headlines today.

    Today they described Labour as having ‘leaped ahead’ in their new poll.

    Lab 37% Con 35% Lib DEM 10%

  30. No update to figures with latest you gov. All last no update week the top of the list said 6% Tory lead all week and now four?
    Any particular reason?

  31. Thanks Hooded Man, it is a bit tricky, but Howard and Pete B managed it. Just sign up for an account, then you can post :)

  32. POLL ALERT:

    BPIX

    Tory 35%
    Labour 37%
    Libs 10%
    Others must be a crazy 18% but I am trying to get confirmation….

  33. POLL ALERT

    YG (SCOTLAND) in SoS.

    h ttp://news.scotsman.com/scotland/Alex-Salmond-beats-Iain-Gray.6596183.jp

  34. @ Cozmo

    Glad you found it useful :)

    Krugman doesn’t normally post on Britain, but when he does I find him to be quite insightful.

    Given Osborne’s grasp of rudimentary mathematics he probably will be trying to convince us that 2+2=5 at some point ;)

  35. @Billy
    “Glad you found it useful”
    ——————-
    Very much so thanks. :) It was refreshing to get an outside view since so many folk here ( including me ) are seeing things through specs of one tint or another.

    There is something primeval IMO in the way that large numbers of people of whichever persuasion can be encouraged to repeat the tribal chants and slogans. Some sort of mass hysteria, whip the spear-weilders into a fighting frenzy and charge headlong into the ranks of the ‘evil and worthless foe’. Scary.

    I am inclined to take the lazy route. Sit back and wait. If GO and Co have it right then blues will reap rich rewards at the next GE. If some of the experts abroad are right then there will be a mighty screeching of brakes at some point, accompanied by some horrible crunching sounds and a string of excuses as to why there is a sudden U-turn.

  36. @ Cozmo

    Well, you know what they say – “tell a lie often enough and eventually people will believe it” ;)

  37. Colin re Andrew Lawnsley (AL)

    I used to follow AL and had a lot of respect for his views until he started the tirade of vitriolic stuff against GB and promoting his book – The End of the Party.

    It all became too personal and the anti-labour stance continues, often without any substantial arguments. I thought that AJ put over some key points which most of the media seemed to ignore about the Conservatives supporting everything that Labour was doing up until 2007 and going even further – even to easing regulation of the banks!

    The cuts are too deep, too rapid and too divisive and mean. IFS are right in stating that the hardest hit will be the poor and if this is fairness and justice, God help us if things get worse. Hitting the poorest simply to get support from those who mistakenly believe that benefits are only for scroungers and the feckless, is the worst of politics.

  38. Eoin

    “Alex-Salmond-beats-Iain-Gray.”

    I wouln’t call that “News” just because it is in a newspaper.

    The SNP have a strong team who have been trying very hard in their first opportunity in office. I hope the campaign will be about their record, the parties proposals and their sticking points in coalition.

    Labour deserve to lose because of their unremiting negativity, and are wrong-footed whenever the UK party follows the SNP lead.

    If the SNPare tempted by this poll to engage in a leader personality contest in the Westminster manner, they will damage the parliament.

    That already happens when it so easy and tempting to respond to Labour’s puerile attacks at FMQ. Annabel Goldie is usally better behaved, and deservedly respected.

    I expect Labour will have the largest number of MSP’s. The Greens may get a good deal in return for their support, but they need to be careful to avoid asking for too much.

    The Cons are in competition with the LibDems, and since the latter are likely to lose some MSP’s Cons are in a good position to be in coalition with the SNP but unlike the LibDems their negotiating position is weakened by the fact that they can not go into coalition with Labour.

    The SNP could easily get Green support, but it’s doubtful if they have whatt takes for a SNP-Green -LibDem coalition.

    The Socialists will be missing out in this round too and will be doing well if they regroup and get one list seat in Glasgow in 2015.

  39. Correction:

    The SNP could easily get Green support, but it’s doubtful if the LibDems have what takes for a SNP-Green – LibDem coalition.

  40. Howard

    You haven’t heard from me because I’m just back from South Tyrol, where the province keeps 90% of all taxation raised there, instead of sending it to Rome. What a sensible idea.

  41. John B Dick

    Interesting to compare YouGov polling for Holyrood in November 2006 (6 months prior to prior to the last Holyrood elections for those outwith Scotland).

    SNP still ahead of where they were then, when the SNP was at 32% in the constituency vote and 28% in the regional vote compared to the current 34% and 31%.

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