YouGov – 41/40/10

The first YouGov/Sun poll since the spending review has topline figures of CON 41%, LAB 40%, LDEM 10%. It’s the smallest Conservative lead for a week or so, but there’s no massive change from the pre-CSR polls – no collapse or increase in Tory support – nothing, in fact, that couldn’t be normal variation within the margin of error. What is notable is the Liberal Democrat score: 10% is the lowest YouGov have ever recorded them, the last time any pollster had them that low was 1997.

Naturally YouGov asked a large number of questions on the spending review itself, which I’ll post about later once the Sun release them.

I don’t know if there are other polls tonight – Channel 4 News said a poll tonight would have the Lib Dems at a 20 year low. Clearly this shouldn’t apply to this poll, YouGov haven’t been around for 20 years, and it’s only 13 years since another pollster had them on 10%. That said, it could just have been human error.


106 Responses to “YouGov – 41/40/10”

1 2 3
  1. Given that the coalition is 80% conservative and 20% lib dem, why are the tories doing quite well and the libs very badly? If the shape of the cuts is so unpopular and the lib dems have toned down what the tories would have done if left to their own devices, why is it not the other way round?

  2. @Colin Green -“Given that the coalition is 80% conservative and 20% lib dem, why are the tories doing quite well and the libs very badly?”
    Most (possible) Conservative supporters like what the Conservatives are doing. Most (possible) LD supporters do not.
    Labour mop up the anti-government votes.

  3. Bad luck libs :(

    You know what you gotta do to make it right.

  4. @Colin

    Because the tories are doing things that their base likes and appealing to swing voters by vilifying supposed scroungers.

    Also, many voters one overriding political opinion is hatred of the tories, they voted anti-tory as much as Lab or LibDem. By making a pact with the devil the libs have lost those supporters.

  5. I’m going to win the prediction game, aren’t I? ;)

  6. Eoin Clarke

    “You know what you gotta do to make it right.”

    Do tell.

  7. 10 % FOR THE LIBS COMES ON TOP OF 7 % IN THE SCOTTISH WESTMINSTER POLL. A FEW MORE LIKE THIS AND THE SHIVERS WILL BE LOOKING FOR A BACKBENCH BACKBONE TO CREEP UP.

    TAXI FOR ALEXANDER AND CLEGG?

  8. Julian,

    My missus tinks so.

    I don’t :)

  9. JULIAN & COLIN

    I think it would now be hard to find a Lib Dem activist who wouldn’t, in private, express extreme disquiet about how things are going.

    If Lib Dems are down to 10% on YouGov and probably creeping down to single figures it’ll be interesting to see how long it is before discipline in the Liberal Democrat Party begins to break down.

    Traditionally, the Lib Dems have had the most ‘open’ appraoch to party discipline and party business and I think that it is inevitable that more and more of them are going to break ranks.

  10. @Eoin
    You should listen to your missus. What’s going to change between this poll and Saturdays? About 1% of Tories on YouGov are going to get the heeby-jeebies about the cuts and swing across to Labour.
    40 40 10
    You’ve got to be wrong sometimes.

  11. Truthfully, I expected the Cons to gain for a while, to maybe a +6 lead.

    If they can’t gain now, it must be of concern to them. The effect of the cuts, once felt must surely give Labour a lead from this position.

    The news has been interesting, as yesterday, the Coalition probably thought they had done OK. However, the impact on the disabled and the IFS report are getting some prominent coverage and unpicking what GO must have thought was a good position.

  12. @DAVIDB

    I’ve been voicing my concerns in *private* since May. Now I’m voicing them openly. I want my party to split. Clegg is a lost cause.

  13. Damn!! That was my pre CSR prediction for ST poll.

    I can only see it holding steady at this level or narrowing. Quite poor coverage for CSR in the print and terrestrial media today.

    When I thought- immediately after CSR announcement- it would widen (not expecting it to narrow for months).

    But @Howard I honour my prematurity for Saturday nights ST poll :-)

  14. Julian,

    This is perhaps an outlier ;-)

    Well ok, probably not, but don’t forget MOE ;-)

  15. @sssimon

    “I’ve been voicing my concerns in *private* since May. Now I’m voicing them openly. I want my party to split. Clegg is a lost cause.”

    You won’t be the last- but it won’t happen till late 2012/ early 2013.

  16. Labour have had the benefit of 24 hrs of BBC shroud waving and still have not edged ahead. Not sure they should be that pleased with this poll.

  17. JG don’t jump too soon.

    I shall await any poll that comes out at any time until Friday midnight.

    I shall post my prediction on Saturday afternoon.

    I believe Anthony, if he wants to have a go, should write it down tomorrow afternoon at 1400. I trust him to report it to us correctly of course. :-)

    This could be a real test of our collective insight (this was an Event).

    I am rather chuffed to have anticipated the initial move in the polls. But will it continue and at whose expense?

    As if I did not know :-((

  18. Though naturally a pessimistic red sympathiser, it looks like AJ is a better bet than Michael Foot’s shadow chancellor- was it Peter Shore?

    Game on for the political fight, ‘with heads uncovered..’

  19. sssimon,

    Next May will be bad for NC, and when he loses a lot of Councillors, the activists will get giddy.

  20. As always, there are a lot of very firm predictions coming out of one poll.

    Lets just be sure we don’t have a LD 14% in the next few days before we call them a Norwegian Blue, pining for the fjords…

  21. One thing i am prepared to predict and am 70% certain of it.

    Lab will be in the lead on Monday night YG.

  22. Absolutely delighted……….I expected a bit of a reversal of roles tonight , followed by a bounce on Sunday when people realise what a treasure we have in the Treasury……..anyway, you doubters, it’s good news for the future of the UK, bad news for freeloaders, a reality check for those who exploit the genuinely needy.

  23. Would we expect Others to be further squeezed? Clearly tonight’s poll suggests so.

  24. @ Chris Lane – my totally unscientific poll of those I’ve met today indicates that AJ did well. I would have preferred Ed Balls or Yvette, but I recognise that they might well have blinded with their ‘dismal’ science.

    For the moment, seems like EM’s political judgement was vindicated … on my totally unscientific poll!

  25. @chris lane

    “Though naturally a pessimistic red sympathiser, it looks like AJ is a better bet than Michael Foot’s shadow chancellor- was it Peter Shore?”

    Yep- should have been Healey but he got lumbered with CND, er, defence!

    hey ho halcyon days. I bet Dave and George are wishing they were as ‘fortunate in their enemies’ as lucky old Maggie was :-)

  26. Ken,

    Maybe you should delay the party….I think the CSR will unpick unfavourably for the Conservatives over the coming days. For me, a good start for the Blues at this point would have been a leap upwards for a time, before the impact hits and this lead falls.

  27. My estimation of the minor lift Lab need over the weekend, Syzsgy, is based on the effect AJ’s brilliance will have on floaters who catch any of his interviews.
    It’s great for Lab that he is sneeered at, which we have seen on here, but there they makea the bigga mistakea.

  28. Neil A- responding a point from another thread.

    Look here:

    Police Terms and Conditions of Service (Redundancy) Bill 2010-11

    h ttp://services.parliament.uk/bills/2010-11/policetermsandconditionsofserviceredundancy.html

  29. Some folk on here think Yougov is the only game in town and not really much change in the past few days, though still disappointing from an LD Prospective and indeed those who like pluralism but I’m certainly not panicking yet. We need more polls to judge the real trend, even if things are difficult for the Liberal Democrats and I may not agree with every decision I’m certainly still a coalition supporter. Would liked to have the seen the Winter Fuel payment and Bus passes revisted though, why should the wealthy get some of these benefits.

  30. Barney,

    Not sure if you are on this thread, but thanks for your reply on the previous thread, Appreciate the time you take to reply to questions, and always in a polite manner (with your party colours on your sleeve!)

    How does the funding work in Scotland for the SNP while they are governing?

  31. On NN they are looking at police (cue Neil A).

    The CCs are saying they think they can cope with large cuts in staff. I think ‘well if you can, why did you need more bods before?’ You did not say so then.

    So I am forced to believe that they are are Tory voters trying to be loyal.

    What other explanation is likely or credible?

  32. @Garry K……….Thanks for that. We do have 41/2 yrs to sort out the mess, so I’m feeling very optimistic, I live in a very buoyant London and this is the powerhouse of the economy, having said that, manufacturing is booming, figures published this week show the biggest growth in manufacturing since 1968. I do find the left’s obsession with minorities a bit negative, if they can try to overcome the grief of losing the election, and concentrate on the good things that this country is doing, it would help everyone.Their current stance is to object to everything……..totally counterproductive and bitter, they are desperate to see the Coalition fail which means the country fails………..Tony Blair must be turning in his caviar….I don’t know whether anyone has noticed, but there are people in this country who don’t rely on benefits, they work for a living, and there are more of them every day…..I would ask the Left to stop undermining the recovery.

  33. @Ken
    If the opposition stopped opposing the government we’d have a dictatorship.
    You wouldn’t want that.
    Would you?

  34. @Ken – you’re quite right of course; those lazy scroungers on benefits.

    What I found weird though was how unemployment rose from 1 million in 1979 to 3 million in 1982?? There must have been a lazy virus going round.

    Or maybe they just lost their jobs…

    You should read some Paul Krugman mate and find out why cutting benefits when the economy’s bumping along the bottom is a fool’s policy.

    Anyway, to keep on topic. I’m going with 40:41:10 by Monday.

  35. Ken,

    I look at it this way. What could really undermine the recovery is this short, sharp shock. More cuts = more job losses. More job losses = more benefits paid and less disposable income. Less disposable income = suppressed demand. Suppressed demand = slow growth. Slow growth = less of deficit paid. Less of the deficit paid = more cuts….

    And when you say we, I can assure you I will be fighting locally in the next 4 1/2 years to get the Coalition out ;-)

  36. i been trying to work out what the reds would have cut

    no tax raises…..politically very difficult probably VAT maybe scraping the exemptions

    no defence cuts…………again a big no no politically, certainly trident would have been going ahead on schedule

    no police cuts……………tough on crime has been a big turnaround for labours image

    bank levy………….i doubt it, maybe a little more

    of course anything is possible if you have a sacrificial lamb to take the blame

  37. If AV does get through, I’m pretty sure there will be a LD split. But then, it’s only a matter of time until both the Tories (Liberal Conservatives and, basically, a hard-line UKIP) and Labour (Socialist and New – not necessarily called that, mind you) have their own splits.

    It may sound ridiculous but it’s happened before when the Whigs (basically) gave rise to Conservative, Labour and the Lib Dems (despite Cons being known as Tories, the hardline royalist Tory party was really the one that became extinct). AV would mean smaller parties could be more viable and in coalition power, so nothing really to keep with Blair/Clegg/Cameron in their new direction for their respective parties.

    Apologies for the history lesson – I’m sure you already knew. All I meant to say was, the LDs must know they face oblivion (unless the economy is a storming success) but they feel it’s worth the sacrifice for power. If any MPs didn’t get that, what on Earth did they think the outcome would be?

  38. I’ve not been here for a while. What’s happened to the whole “non-partisan discussion” business? Dull dull dull….

  39. I think our military colleagues must be elsewhere otherwise they would have reminded us it is Trafalgar Day today.

    Let’s celebrate the beginning of the end of British (English) naval fantasies. I am least impressed with Fox and Co for that.

  40. @Howard,

    There’s no doubt that police forces can cope with cuts in staff. I was at our force HQ yesterday and, as usual, it was almost impossible to park (my unmarked police car) as there were something like 400-500 private cars parked there.

    If the money was found by proper reform, the cuts might even have a beneficial effect long-term on the police. Heaven knows we have a lot of cobwebs that need blowing away.

    As for CCs being loyal Tories, I don’t think that’s right. They are loyal lickspittles, but their politics are negotiable. They will ingratiate themselves with whoever is in power, in the hope of advancement. Most of them have spent the last 20 years going through the process of repeated promotions by saying the right things to their bosses. Actual policing is a distant memory for most of them. Part of the reason we need to scrap a few ranks…

  41. I did some canvassing in Oxford today for a Council byelection. I have just had the result and Labour took the seat from the L/D with a 10% swing.

  42. Well done Roger Rebel!

  43. @Julian Gilbert……….Creative opposition is healthy, we don’t have one……! How can the people that crashed the economy have any credibility when it comes to rebuilding it, the total denial of responsibility puts me in mind of a drunk in a car crash.

  44. @sssimon,

    I’m not a Lib Dem supporter, but I hope I have respect for the party, their deep traditions in British politics, and their genuine current dilemma.
    It seems plausible to me that Nick Clegg (who spent a lot of time at the centre of the EU) would like to lead a continental-style liberal party, something along the lines of the German FDP.
    Strategically though, this is clearly a dead end because the Conservative party is not the German CDU, and there is no political room to the right of them, except for populist anti-immigrant Xenophobia.

    Also, I doubt that most Liberal Democrat activists would be happy to go in this direction. There is a legitimate Liberal Democrat case for the coalition’s cuts as a response to crisis, but perhaps now is the time to start asking about post-crisis aspirations, and then consider your position .

  45. Hooded Man
    Posters who know more will correct me .. but my understanding is “short” money goes to the opposition to partially balance the advantages the party in government has in terms of getting advisers etc in post. the SNP receive 2short” money for Westminster but not in Scotland. Labour gat for both Scotland and uk. The Lib Dems get a little for Scotland but lose (and, the press believe, did not realise they would lose), Westmister “short” money. A few weeks ago Labour advertised for more than 30 posts.
    Thanks for your considerate comment

  46. @Ken -“How can the people that crashed the economy have any credibility when it comes to rebuilding it, the total denial of responsibility puts me in mind of a drunk in a car crash.”
    I completely agree with you. I didn’t know you were a red too.
    Sack the leaders of all the banks and financial institutions responsible for the crisis. ;)

  47. ken

    there are a lot of people who work for a living and still rely on benefits

  48. I think perhaps we need to be reminded that the changes since the last pre-CSR poll are Conservatives 0, Labour +1, LibDems -1, Others 0. So far so non-existent, statistically speaking.

  49. BTW, John Denham is very good on QT,

    A safe pair of hands.

  50. Benefits, benefits, benefits,………! Where have you got your heads ?

1 2 3