YouGov – 41/40/10

The first YouGov/Sun poll since the spending review has topline figures of CON 41%, LAB 40%, LDEM 10%. It’s the smallest Conservative lead for a week or so, but there’s no massive change from the pre-CSR polls – no collapse or increase in Tory support – nothing, in fact, that couldn’t be normal variation within the margin of error. What is notable is the Liberal Democrat score: 10% is the lowest YouGov have ever recorded them, the last time any pollster had them that low was 1997.

Naturally YouGov asked a large number of questions on the spending review itself, which I’ll post about later once the Sun release them.

I don’t know if there are other polls tonight – Channel 4 News said a poll tonight would have the Lib Dems at a 20 year low. Clearly this shouldn’t apply to this poll, YouGov haven’t been around for 20 years, and it’s only 13 years since another pollster had them on 10%. That said, it could just have been human error.


106 Responses to “YouGov – 41/40/10”

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  1. @ Starchief
    I think you need to look at AV again, mate. It does nothing for the smaller parties, and in fact makes their success all that harder.

    @ Daniel
    Good theory on Clegg being influenced by his time at the EU and now foolishly attempting to direct his party to a FDP-type Liberal party; never thought of that.

  2. There’s a slight misunderstanding. I’m talking about the established parties splitting into smaller parties, rather than the very broad coalition they currently are (I’ve no idea how someone that voted for Michael Foot can also support Tony Blair).

    Perhaps I confused the issue by mentioning the likes of a UKIP-style Tory split. In that case, I meant a more ‘traditional’ Tory Party and the newer liberal (small ‘L’) Tories, both with grandees of the party, having their own party. That’s where AV would allow both to fight without necessarily letting in, in this case, Labour.

  3. @Andrew

    “A 1% Tory lead after the cuts.”

    What cuts?!

    I have experienced no cuts yet: even so the Conservatives *only* have a lead in the m.o.e at this early stage :-)

  4. @ Starchief Can you explain how this might work, exactly? :)

    I’ve no idea how someone that voted for Michael Foot can also support Tony Blair
    Lesser evil. Tory-lite or Tory? I’ll have the Tory-lite, thanks.

  5. Neil A

    Thanks for that answer. I hadn’t appreciated how many of the “non-frontline” jobs had been civilianised in England. Again it’s the loss of experience that’s the problem – it still seems silly to lose that through early retirement.

  6. re. the police and pensions
    I’ve lived and worked in a few countries and the police in the UK are exceptional when it comes to lack of corruption.
    Why is this? Are Brits naturally more honest than other nationalities?
    I think not. I think it’s because in the UK our police have a very good pension and retirement package compared to other countries. In short, you’d have to offer a really really large amount of money to a police officer in the UK to make him or her risk all that.
    It may not be an entirely tasteful argument, but it works. And having a relatively uncorrupt police force is a big plus for the UK, believe me.

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