There is a snap Ipsos-MORI poll out, carried out last night after the spending review.

41% thought that the government had made the right decisions, 38% that they had made the wrong decisions. MORI also asked about a few of the specific measures – 73% supported ending child benefits for people earning over £44,000, 61% supporting reducing spending on benefits by £7bn, 60% supported increasing the state pension age to 66 by 2020.Less popular was cutting spending on the police by 4% each year (supported by only 34% and opposed by 62%), and cutting public sector jobs by 490,000, where support and opposition were pretty evenly matched – 45% supported, 47% opposed.

There are also some trackers, which I wouldn’t pay too much regard to (changes there might be a result of the spending review, but could equally just be a result of a very small, quick sample producing strange things – notably the weighted sample included more people claiming to have voted Labour in 2010 than Conservative, not typical of MORI’s polls).

There will, naturally, be a lot more polling to come on this in the next few days. YouGov’s poll for the Sun tonight will have the first regular sample and first voting intention numbers conducted after the review, while weekend polls will be conducted after people have seen newspaper reaction and the political arguments afterwards.

UPDATE: There are also a new set of Scottish Voting intention figures out, topline figures are

Westminster: CON 18%, LAB 44%, LDEM 7%, SNP 26%
Holyrood constituency: CON 14%, LAB 40%, LDEM 8%, SNP 34%
Holyrood Regional: CON 15%, LAB 36%, LDEM 8%, SNP 31%, Green 6%

UPDATE2:
Gary Gibbon on Channel 4 has talked about polls plural tonight with bad news for the Lib Dems – so there may be more than just the YouGov/Sun poll to come. Or Gary might just have been being imprecise with his language.


147 Responses to “Ipsos MORI spending review poll”

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  1. Eoin
    Ken did not mention procurement. He said that social housing construction would resume after 13 years of no action. ?

  2. Howard,

    I’ll vote for whatever improvement comes along. AV, STV, etc, etc, (I’ll go read the business bit)

    Colin G,

    We aint chatted since April, I hope your well. In answer to your question: Both. It’s all over for yellow in Scotland.

  3. @Colin Green

    I’m not sure if this is what Eoin meant, but I think the chances of Lib Dem defections have gone up considerably.

  4. @Jay

    Are the rules not different for you if you’re “severely disabled?”

  5. Ken
    Typically cheap and demeaning

  6. @Signifficant

    Under the welfare regime “Severely disabled” is a category that it’s very hard to get into. You need to have pretty much no ability to live independently at all, and most people who would claim the additional benefits for “severe disability” are in care-homes where they won’t get them.

    Even with my condition, I’m only just able to get some DLA, and not enough to qualify for things like free prescriptions.

    And even then, there is no mention of any exemption for the new “under 35 years old” rule limiting housing benefit to single-room in shared accommodation rates. There was no exemption when it was “under 25 years old” either.

  7. @Signifficant

    Under the welfare regime “Severely disabled” is a category that it’s very hard to get into. You need to have pretty much no ability to live independently at all, and most people who would claim the additional benefits for “severe disability” are in care-homes where they won’t get them.

    Despite getting higher rate for DLA on mobility, I don’t class as “severely disabled”. I get a free bus pass, but that’s all.

  8. Garry K
    Back to gordon
    I have posted before that Lib Dem incumbants in NE scotland have some slight protection in that they present as tories in what are usually very wealthy constituencies. Malcolm Bruce was the most vociferous at last year’s Lib Dem conference of those who wanted to distance themselves from Labour. A week or so ago I posted that while it was being claimed C Kennedy was working for north of Scotland unified demand for talks with the coalition on student fees, this was unlikely to cover Mr Bruce and Sir R Mith. However today I was approached by a leading Lib DeM to ask if I knew if those Labour MPs who had signed the pledge might be up for some joint action. M Bruce was one Lib Dem who has now said he will vote against tuition fee increases

  9. Eoin,

    I’m touched that you remember. I’ve been a busy boy so apart from the occasional visit, I’ve not posted much recently. I hope you’re wrong about No 6. I think Jo Swinson is quite good.

  10. @Barney Crockett……….Many years ago I was invited to a Burns night supper by the Scots Guards Association in Aberdeen………The American bank that I worked for was involved in the development of an industrial project, Michelin tyre factory, on the Dee. Can you imagine the potential, Scots., English, French, Yanks, all competing for social kudos, I can state, without equivocation, that those 3 weeks were the high point of my career……….we painted Aberdeen red, white, and blue……….it was all downhill from there though…….! I am forever indebted to the burghers of Aberdeen. Good luck, but I fear you’ve had it again. :-)

  11. I also made the point that in quantity there does not seem a great deal of difference in the CSR with that which labour would have done, but the quality differs.

    I don;t actually see, by the way, any certainty that the ‘bulk’ of the deficit will be closed.

    I just see a few gestures to the people who want to come down on benefit takers (receivers?)but I feel the housing is where the most pain will be felt by this group.

    As there are comparitively so few and they don’t tend to vote, iimagine it was a fairly safe target for Osborne and Alexander.

  12. Ken
    It will be a tight run thing. In these elections local issues will be important and the city is currently being run by a very unpopular snp- lib-dem administration

  13. Barney,

    Gordon seems to be a seat with rather odd share of vote in 2010. With the SNP on 22%, your marvellous 20% and the Tories on 19%, the SNP need an swing from the LD’s of 7%, Labour would need 8%. I’m sure the blues are out of it, so do you think that that the probable lost LD votes will concentrate enough on Lab or SNP to get the seat?

  14. Colin G,

    Of course I remeber,

    Howard,

    Yes, that is correct, I’ve been trying to say that for months…

  15. FT today actually used the word “bogus” when referring to Osbornes peroration at the end of his statement claiming that the 19% cut was less than the 20% Darling planned in March budget (irrespective that Labour policy has moved on since then but anyway).

    They did a like-for-like calculation applying equivalent methodologies: Labours figure was a 12% cut….

  16. @Jay

    This is going to be ridiculously rough for a lot of people.

    I remember Danny Alexander complaining at length about the ESA system and the attacks on the sick and disabled.

  17. Tonite’s YG

    Blue 43%
    Red 39%
    Yellow 10%

  18. @Barney Crockett……I am a Tory but the more I think about it, the more the idea of an independent Scotland, from a Scottish point of view, has huge appeal…..if you could negotiate a decent exit from what is now a dysfunctional union, I’m sure you would thrive, my view of course, but I think you have enough intellectual resources to manage the change, and enough financial resources to benefit from independence. Have there been any polls recently asking the devolution question ?

  19. Garry K
    Gordon?
    It could become a four way marginal. If there were to be an election tomorrow then it would be hard to call. It is unlikely that M Bruce will stand again.
    If the changes in boundaries come in it will be academic as the part of the constituency which is in Aberdeen will almost certainly go in with North Aberdeen whilst the part in Aberdeenshire would be likely to link to part of Banff and Buchan.
    As I say, the boundary changes are likely to be bad for the Lib Dems

  20. Ken
    I am a strong supporter of the UK. As are most Scots. This, I should point out is not the devolution question.

  21. Hooded Man
    To return to your earlier point about the snp conference, as I pointed out at the time, it was not just their conference but also a very expensive advertising campaign centring on A Salmond. It is not clear if the snp have a lot of money to spend on the forthcoming Scottish campaign but what I think is abundantly clear is that the Lib Dems have very,very little indeed. Their organisation will be very streched as they have lost uk “short” money. I think that Labour will have strong union support given the current situation going beyond funding but to active mobilisation of voters. The tories will not have it as easy as they are used to with the removal of Laidlaw’s money.
    Finance is going to be important in this election as in others

  22. Signifficant
    There was a demonstration outside Alexander’s constituency office today by an angry trade union/left crowd marking him as public enemy number one. Maybe he will be offered a tory seat somewhere… or will tories in Inverness do the trick?

  23. The spending review and Clegg’s interview with the Guardian… final straw for me. I’m so offended by what my party is enabling *and* doing to the welfare infrastructure of my country. I don’t see any compassion in the budget or spending review. The people making the decisions have no understanding of life for those who don’t move in their privileged circles, just their cotton-wool silver-spoon version of reality. I hope, beg, that my party splits, leaving Clegg/Laws etc behind, but taking enough MPs to eradicate the government’s majority. Probably very unlikely, but I can dream.

  24. Reds 40%
    Blues 40%
    Yellow 10%

    (prediction)

  25. Rebecca – not a bad prediction (he said, teasing people with a minute to go!)

  26. Anthony,

    you’ll only encourage her!

  27. We don’t hear from Becky very often

  28. Con 41, Lab 40, Lib 10!

  29. it seems that council tenants will be hit hardest, at least in proportionate terms. GO has said that rents should move closer to market rates, but what he means by that is anyone’s guess. does he mean a 10% increase or a 50% increase, in some areas rents could increase by 200% and still be a lot less than the market rate

    what is certain is that georgie wants councils to increase rents and use the money to build new house’s. but he seems to be nudging local authorities into increasing rents in order to cover the shortfall in govt money. of course an increase in rents will have a knock on effect on the welfare bill

    i predict an average increase in rents to be 10% in the first year and at least 5% every year after, number of houses built……maybe 2500??

    effect on the polls………almost nothing

    council estates tend to have very low turnout. so really it’s there own fault

  30. @Barney

    I guess the Tories might help him if there’s some sort of a pact, but they’re asserted many times there won’t be. I suppose that wouldn’t stop a gentleman’s agreement in specific individual seats though. I can’t help but feel that the Liberal Democrats have signed up to a five-year death pact.

  31. CON 41%, LAB 40%, LD 10%

    APPROVAL -5

    Damn!! That was my pre CSR prediction. I can only see it holding steady or narrowing. When I thought after CSR it would widen (not expecting it to narrow for months).

    But @Howard I honour my prematurity for Saturday nights ST poll :-)

  32. @Rebecca Dunlop…………Spooky ! :-)

  33. I guess when IDS said that he wanted to ensure that noone was better off out of work than in work, people weren’t really paying attention to what that means.

    A lot of people who work and don’t get housing benefit can’t afford a “decent” place to live. Staying with your parents or sharing a house with others is commonplace. IDS is trying to rebalance housing benefits so that they enable people to enjoy what normal working people enjoy, but nothing better. That’s part of the process of “ensuring you are better off in work”.

    Similarly with subsidised rent. At the moment it is something of a lottery. If you manage to wangle yourself a council/HA property you get a big chunk of your housing costs paid by the state in the form of below-market rent. If you don’t get that property and have to rent privately, you’re in your own. And that’s not means tested. You can live in a council house for £350 pcm, despite earning £40k, whilst the schmuck in the private rented flat opposite might be paying £600 pcm despite only earning £20k.

    Sometimes “fairness” is more than just giving as much as you can to the bottom 10%. It’s about not punishing people for scratching their way into the next 10% up.

  34. IMO, This is a good result for Labour

    CON 41%, LAB 40%, LD 10%

    APPROVAL -5

    Osborne got lots of press; he came out & said his cuts were about the same as Darlings, just stirred not shaken. The outcome of that sameness, is a sameness in the polls.

    8-)

  35. Neil A- responding a point from another thread.

    Look here:

    Police Terms and Conditions of Service (Redundancy) Bill 2010-11

    h ttp://services.parliament.uk/bills/2010-11/policetermsandconditionsofserviceredundancy.html

  36. neil A

    you make a very good point

    getting a council house is a bit like winning the lottery.

    people spend years on the waiting lists and once they get a house they hang on to it for dear life. and even if they do end up moving or whatever, they try desperately to pass it on to someone they know preferable family

    my point is though that fair or not, council tenants will feel the pain

    my other point would be that housing is too expensive in britain. but i’ve been saying that for 20 years now.

  37. @ Howard,

    lol…..no I have not posted in quite some time, but i had a feeling about tonights poll….:) its all very exciting:)

    @ Ken,

    Spooky indeed, i suprized myself………and Éoin for that matter:)

    I just belive the public to be very scared……and the balme will go to the libs, however I think that this poll is just a knee jerk reaction……By next monday we will have a clearer iea of teh publics true reaction:)

  38. @Rob,

    Thanks for that link Rob. That’ll cause a fuss in the office tomorrow!

    I note this last line on the ePolitix report about it though;

    “The Bill was given an unopposed first reading, but without government support it stands little chance of becoming law”.

  39. Actually Mark Reckless makes a valid point in introducing the bill, but I think the question of whether police forces should move to employing more civilians than officers demands a slighter longer, harder debate amongst the public at large. Rather than introducing redundancy for police officers, it might be more rational to abolish the concept altogether. Once 90% of policing functions are hived off to civilians all you’re left with is a paid thug whose job it is to hit people. I’m sure we can find a formula for a specialised civilian role to do that little bit, then we’re done!

  40. NeilA

    “The Bill was given an unopposed first reading, but without government support it stands little chance of becoming law”.

    Yep- that is the majority consensus view at the moment; the minority being the government will neither support nor oppose it and effectively allow a free vote. In which case it might squeak through but odds must be against at the moment.

  41. Either way the next reading is in a year’s time, so I fancy my chances of avoiding the axe. By the time it could get into law I’d be looking at early retirement rather than redundancy. Bring it on!!

  42. @Neil A

    “By the time it could get into law I’d be looking at early retirement rather than redundancy. Bring it on”

    yep for Universities- I reckon 18 months guarenteed before any ‘reforms’ of provision/ university closures come into effect.

    As a man with no ties I aim to be abroad by then- where they value the contribution HE makes to future economic growth.

    I quite fancy the wild west of China/ HK where I already teach for two separate 2 week blocks a year.

    Then back to Blighty circa 2016 after this lot have been booted out :-)

  43. Just in time for Labour to enjoy the next boom on the back of the solid economic fundamentals they’ve inherited from the previous Tory chancellor? Again?

    ;)

  44. @NeilA

    Touche !

  45. @ Ken @ 6:45

    “a ‘large’ proportion, we must be talking billions here, I am surprised, what did the textile companies do with all those billions of pounds ?”

    In my view even if it was 1%, it is too much. But it was much bigger

    It paid for the rechannelling of the manufacturing assets to mainly financial assets. Essentially it removed the sunk cost. No textile firm in the north had to pay for the downsizing. It was all state financed. This is what happened.

  46. @barney.

    Here we go again.

    The Snp campaign will centre around Salmond.

    What will the SLAB campaign centre around?

    Hiding Grey away from the voters.
    Raising council and income tax.
    Blame the Snp for a mess that happened while we were in government?

    Do you have anything else?

    Just yesterday Gray said he wasn’t against another council tax freeze. It must have come as a shock to the rest of you.

    While you are correct that most Scots still support the union, around a third of the country are in favour of independence. Your condescending style makes it sound like a tiny minority.

    Also as a labour member are there any plans to investigate the rumours of Glasgow councils ties with organised crime or will it br swept under the carpet as usual by labour to protect your west coast fiefdoms?

  47. Starchief

    “The LD vote in Scotland was always going to collapse. I’m a little surprised at the low vote for the Greens. I expected quite a pick up for them.”

    If the Greens, as predicted, get back the three they lost last time on AS for FM they should be pleased enough with that.

    KeithP

    “As for the LD’s up in scotland – I don’t think they’ll vanish, but will struggle not to be regarded as effectively part of the Conservative party.”

    Locally, the SNP claim in this LibDem Westminster constituency, that they can find no LibDems. All are anti-Con, anti-Lab, anti-Con+Lab or anti-SNP.

    Jay Blanc @Mike

    “…. make the final break over strained relations with Central Office, perhaps re-brand themselves as ‘Celtic Conservatives’, and aim at hoovering up the Scottish Lib Dems?”

    Christian Democrats (Scottish Protestant version) aka Conservative and Unionists used to have a majority of the popular vote in Scotland.

    The could have been in government with the SNP in 2007 if they had re-branded at devolution.

    Eoin Clarke @ Steve

    ” – these will go. 2 are shoot outs between SNP & Lab. One will go blue and the others red.

    4. Argyll & Bute”

    No. See above @ Keith.

    The retiring incumbent must be one of the best constituency MP/MSP’s around and would certainly have increased his majority.

    The SNP took a lot of votes off LibDem for the UK election. LibDem have been on the way down here recently.

    In Scotland, Cons are going nowhere execpt the crematorium.

    Labour held up their vote depite a weak candidate in the general election because many see the SNP as irrelevant to a parliamet they want to leave and a Labour vote could prevent a Con government.

    The SNP candidate is the right-wing Minister for Education, formerly Culture, and one time leadership challenger. A strong and local candidate, likely to have wide appeal to non-partisan voters.

    Despite the tiny majority, SNP hold.

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