Ipsos MORI’s monthly poll for Reuters is out, and has topline figures of CON 39%(+2), LAB 36%(-1), LDEM 14%(-1). Changes are from a month ago.

YouGov’s voting intention this morning was CON 41%, LAB 39%, LDEM 12%. There will be the normal YouGov voting intention figures tonight, but unless anything pops up in the papers on Wednesday, those will be the last figures before the cuts announcements tomorrow and will form our benchmark for measuring any immediate impact on voting intentions.

Will there be any? It’s hard to say. The cuts have been very well flagged in advance, but actual details may still come as a shock to voters – there may be an immediate drop in government support, or there may only be a delayed one when the cuts start actually to bite. Theoretically, as with the aftermath of the budget, it could even bolster the government if they are seen to be doing the responsible thing (there could be a combination of that, and then a later drop). We shall see…


144 Responses to “Ipsos MORI – 39/36/14”

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  1. I still think we’ll end up buying US jets to fly off them. The carrier delivery date is so far in the future that the whole picture could have completely changed by then.

  2. @Neil A

    ‘Looks like we’ll have our shiny new JSFs by 2012 but nothing to park them on.’

    I was trying to find some info about the carrier issue and came across this quote from 2003 on a forum for military aircrew. You said something about the picture changing.

  3. They will carry UAV’s (Drones) These devices are being developed to replace fighter aircraft in some circumstances, and will play a major role in future combat and recon.

  4. Howard – I reckon no change at all from today’s figures. The only people who don’t know cuts are coming probably don’t know what a general election is.

    CON 41%, LAB 39%, LDEM 12%.

  5. Howard,

    Con 41, Lab 40, LD 9.

  6. That rotter David Cameron… Now I know he reads UKPR.

    Little red me says the best thing about the armed forces is the jets – & the Harrier is my all time favourite…. within weeks he & his sidekick, Osborne, make plans to scrap them all with no replacements!

    Grrrrr 8-)

    [He does actually – he told me himself (well, either he does, or he was very well briefed at fooling me into thinking he does). That said, I suspect he doesn’t make specific policy decisions to annoy commenters ;) – AW]

  7. Howard
    40, 42, 9

  8. @Howard

    41 – 39 – 11

    I think if we’re still getting Tory leads at this point we’ll continue to get them.

  9. RE : the carriers…

    This is a local issue here in the SW ( where they are designed ) so I have been following carefully.

    There were originally 2 competing designs, BAe Systems and Thales ( Thales actually jut fronted a carrier designed by a company in Bath ).

    Thales were lowest price and best technically. So teh government awarded the contract to… Both, BAe to manage the contract and the Thales design.

    Thats when it all started to go wrong…

    1) They are built in bits and will be floated together and assembled in Rosyth ( for some reason ?? ) this prompted a redesign due to fitting the things under the bridges.

    2) No one wanted the STVOL version of the JSF. Its not very good, the nozzels that do the V bit light up the plane to radar ( why the harrier is ineffective against 1st rate airforces ). So the decision not to buy them is a good thing

    Most of the time our current carriers are used for helicopters anyway..

  10. I think there is still a Tory lead showing in the polls as people are still thinking cuts are not going to affect them , but someone else.
    Once realisation steps in, very shortly, maybe even this week that Labour’s polling will start to climb. As this is a Tory government which did not win the election either, I would expect the Libs to decline sharply.

  11. Just read that state pension now to be 66 from 2016′ not sure if that will affect women whose pension age was on sliding scale., mine was due in 2017 at 63.
    So no jobs or pension either? Just how are people expected to survive?

  12. I think cuts are factoerd into support levels, movement in the polls will be marginal.

    The job losses quoted are over 4-5 years. There are between 80,000 – 100,000 retirements every year in the public sector.

    Budgetry responsibility will be devolved so that locally people willl have a choice, just as we have had to make in teh private sector, pay cuts or job cuts.

    The reason i don’t think there will be much movement is simply that there has been a drip drip feed about cuts fro so long everyone is expecting them.

    Secondly, there has also been a counter repost from the unions and from labour which is a basic scare tactic. So in effect the cuts will never seem as bad as the unions paint them. It always amazes me that clearly none of the union boses appear to be students of strategic thinking. By shouting how bad it is going to be they actually plasy into the hands of the cons allowing the cons to make cuts not quite as bad, so people ( apart fromt the core political support ) follow a narrative.

    Well played DC so far, not so well played the unions.

  13. By Sunday:

    C37 L43 LD10

    By May:

    C30 L50 LD10

  14. Simon,
    yes one would expect retirement to take up some of the jib losses. However, with a reduced pension and/or no state pension, many will not be able to take up the retirement option. So the mosre experienced, higher paid staff will continue to work. There will be no jobs therefore for younger staff who had aspirations of working in a particular field.
    So without jibs people will be forced to live on benefit.
    So how is this supposed to save money?

  15. Jobs , not jibs

  16. PAM,

    Out of the 4 civil servents I know well, and we discussed these issues.
    1 – is jumping up and down to take redundency, he is retireing at 52.
    1 – Is a supervisor ( i’ve told her story before ) whe has some staff who just don’t do any work. harsh as it may seem, she is looking forward with glee to getting rid of the waters as she calls them.
    The other 2 are nurses and aren’t worried at all.

    Saying that we all tend, not delibertaly, to surround ourselves with like minded people. human herd mentality.

    Most people I know are broadly supportive of the cuts programme. That does seem to be reflected in polls.

    But I accept there will be indivudal stories which will not make pleasent reading.

  17. Lol wasters not waters….

  18. Simon, you obviously know different people an I do.
    retire at 52? No way, state pension at 66 working with disaffected 16 year olds, no chance of retirement?
    An my daughter is a midwife , and is not of a mind to care not about cuts, understaffed already in a highly dangerous and responsible situation.
    There are many perspectives I agree, but these will not be broadly supported at all. IMO, of course.

  19. Pam,

    I agree differnet people have different perspective, the chap retiring is MoD, the redundency terms are very good, he will have 2 years pay ( after tax ). Pension will pay out at 60. So he’s downsizing his house ( he has no morgate ). i know a few people in the forces approaching 22 years service who are begging to go because they will be afirly well off.

    Everyone is different. I just believe the current polls have cuts built in ( as some others do ) and I also believe that the unions are doing a very good job of providing the govt. with cover for some cuts.

    I would love to know why unions don’t play a shrewder long game…….

  20. Anthony,

    I am sure you know Downing Street’s IP address. Can you block them from reading your pages? I’d hate to give Cammo some Ammo. ;)

  21. The Unions seem to think that fanning flames is a better way of fighting fire than damping them down, in my lifetime the Union straegy has been to make a bad job worse. Take Bob Crow, if people are struggling to get to work, make it harder, if we enter a recession, ignore it and make life more difficult for everyone. I was listening to a classic Humphries interview this morning, a left wing commentator suggested we should pursue the French way, burn cars, march, strike, smash the place up. The French way seems to be summed up in 3 words, pram, baby, rattle, very enlightening.

  22. Ken: You are correct.

    Would you like to know the reason for that? Unions have a sneaking suspicion that workers jobs are not valued, and that unemployment does not matter to a blue government. I think they will probably retain that suspicion for ever. Now wouldn’t it be great if blue could prove them wrong, and in doing so they ere to keep unemployment under 2.5million? Sure let’s wait and see! ;)

  23. @Ken

    That pram, baby, rattle has allowed them to retain the best Labour laws in the world. Not to be sniffed at.

  24. I was a Union member for a short time, in the 60s. I attended a couple of meetings where I put, what I thought, were salient points, I was subsequently subjected to a,’disciplinary’ procedure in the car park, 2 shaven headed thugs explained the potential consequences of my disruptive behaviour, I was left in no doubt as to the nature of my punishment should I not decide to toe the party line. I don’t think that Union’s value worker’s jobs at all Éoin, workers are just tools for Unions to exploit, in my view employers value their workers far more than Unions their members. The difference is that employers live in the world of harsh reality and Unions are in it to protect their subscriptions.

  25. @Craig……….Like all spoiled kids, they have no friends. :-)

  26. Ken,

    Did you put your salient points in your on special Ken way? If so they may have thought you ere mocking their intelligence, and upon reflection you might find you actually were doing just that?

    But yes you make a good point; Their methods ‘can’ sometimes be distasteful. I once had a union rep at Coke, invite me to sallo a phone… he even offered to help deposit it through a different entrance. So I know they can be a rough lot. But I still maintain that their basic modus operandi is to get the best deal for the worker. They particularly resent the belief that unemployment is a handy inflationary tool.

  27. @Craig
    “the best Labour laws in the world.”
    I agree and I fear that they are likely to be eroded.

    I wonder if certain posters write provocative stuff as a way of triggering a conversation? Perhaps they are lonely? I have made myself a little sign to remind me – “Do not feed the Trolls”

  28. @Éoin……….Mocking their intelligence ! I was pointing out that they should be asking for a better overtime rate, I was only there to raise money post-grad, and I needed travel cash PDQ. I learned my lesson. :-)

  29. @COZMO………..That was a bit provocative, I won’t ask if your’e lonely though. :-)

  30. The French may well have the best Labour laws in the world……….for employees. If you’re a small business owner in France it’s a nightmare, especially if you want to expand, you live in a minefield where your employees are the mines, one wrong step and you trigger disaster.

  31. Ken,

    Would you agree with the poll respondents who consistently return answers that say even if they don’t agree with reds ‘their heart is the right place’?

  32. The first glimmer fo hope for red that they can turn the blame for these cuts back on blue-yellow appeared in the YG poll for the Sun (this morning)

    Asked “Who do you think is mainly to blame for the cuts to the armed forces?”

    30% of voters blame blue/yellow
    34% of voters blame red

    That is the narrowest I have seen those type of questions
    ________________________________________

    One provisio: Only 37% of voters believe that the MOD cuts were “too deep”. 38% said they were about right and 13% of us said the gov. should have cut even deeper.

    If this was a sign of things to come, blues must fancy their chances of pulling this off.

  33. YG also polled issues of most importance to voters. (their regualr tracker). Pensions was the biggest chart mover, climbing ahead of health and drawing level with crime as an issue of importance. In voters personal issues of improtance it closed a net 9% points on the economy, in just a fortnight. Forgive my ignorance on pension, but does that mean that voters did not like blues recent changes on pensions?

  34. @Eion

    My point, the public have largly been desensitsed to the whole process by prolonged building of fear…..

    With red and union support, although they don’t realize it.

    The red polling figure has probably already got factored into it those people who are afraid of cuts.

    In actuality, althoungh undoubtedly, many will be effected, nowhere near as many will be as are afraid.

    I have though for a while that the union and labour party strategy has been flawed and too focused on 2010 – 2012 not on winning power in 2015. Their current strategy is doing blues job for them.

  35. @Craig

    France also has above average unemployment to go with those labour laws. 10.1% compared to 7.7% in the UK and 7.1% in Germany. European average of 9.7%. Those labour laws may protect the employed but works against inward investment.

  36. Aleks,

    Yes, i quite agree. Our own gameplan could hamer blue on a whole range of issues, but playing the game on their terms is costing us.

  37. oops, Not Aleks- but Simon. Forigve me.

  38. I think DC definitely cut the Harriers just to annoy Amber.
    Can I say, as a red, I’m really keen on traffic wardens.

  39. Aleksandar

    are UK unemployment figuers to be trusted? when you read the finance press there is often a load of footnotes attached to british stats

  40. Latest YouGov/Sun figures in first poll since George Osborne’s Comprehensive Spending Review 20th Oct 2010;

    CON 41%, LAB 39%, LD 11%;

    APPROVAL -5

  41. The power of wishful thinking, evidenced so consistently by many of the regular correspondents on here, never ceases to amaze and amuse me in equal measure.! The pubic expenditure cuts announced in today’s Comprehensive Spending Review will frame the political debate for the entirety of this Parliament and, in so doing, determine the fate of the coalition government. That much we do know, but little else, despite the sureties and diehard convictions articulated by some of the, how shall we say, less than partial correspondents on these pages. Instant reaction to epoch making events is usually the most ill informed, tainted as it is by formulaic partisan prejudice and party political wishful thinking. This received wisdom and lazy consensus is currently taking two forms. Firstly, if you were antagonistic to the last Government, then the CSR measures are born of economic necessity and are a bold and unavoidable set of actions to clear up the Labour inherited mess. Mindset pickled, no other version of the truth to be brooked. The other mindset is that the CSR measures are an act of economic folly, ideologically driven, and potentially fatal to an economy slowly recovering from a long and deep recession, still in need of stimulus and vulnerable to deflationary economic measures. Again, this is a truth to be obeyed at all times.

    Of course, I have political views that colour my judgements, but I’ve always found, on reflection, that the world is a nuanced and ambivalent place, stubbornly resistant to pickled and entrenched prejudice. Am I the only person on here who hasn’t got the faintest idea if what Osborne announced today is going to bring about what everybody is so confidently predicting, either politically or economically? If I was to put a Labour hat on I might be tempted to hope he fails, but how good would that be for my fellow citizens in terms of their livelihoods and well being? Alternatively, if I was to don my Tory or Lib Dem hat, I’d be maligning Labour for all it’s worth and hoping that it all came good in time for the next GE when my tribe would reap the political and electoral benefits. But, hang on a minute here, we’re playing politics with people’s lives and futures here, aren’t we, where the vagaries and shifts of daily opinion polls are fairly irrelevant and unimportant sideshows. Personally, I care not a jot for the political futures of Cameron or Clegg, or Miliband and Johnson, for that matter, but I do care an awful lot about what my country might look like in 4 or 5 years time. And as for that important question, for all the political hot air on here, none of us, if we’re being totally honest, really knows the answer.

  42. Nick Hadley
    Good post.

    “…but I do care an awful lot about what my country might look like in 4 or 5 years time.”

    Aye.

  43. I must enter the fray here as living in France I can assure you that France has the most stifling Labour laws, which do nothing to help the unemployment situation here. No one in their right mind takes on an employee as it is almost impossible & certainly very expensive to let them go when your business hits a quiet patch. Most small businesses here never graduate outside the family unit. There are no Alan Sugar’s in France, who started with £100 and now employs thousands. Ryanair has just pulled out of Marseilles, costing hundreds of jobs, because of French employment laws.
    Only by living here can you understand the French mentality which basically dates back to the revolution. It is still the serfs versus the rich & powerful.
    Whilst on an individual level we have made friends with some wonderful French people and in our area they have been most helpful & welcoming to the Brits who have settled here, em-mass they are insular & backward looking and they do not celebrate success. They regard successful people with envy, like many socialists in the UK, instead of having the American attitude of ‘well done, I wonder if I could do that?’
    By all means envy the French for their health system or for their firm stance on dealing firmly with gypsies & veils, but please, not their employment laws. |Try & start up a business here & you will understand what I mean.

  44. @Nick Hadley post at 12.06
    I concur with every word that you have written and couldn’t have said it better myself.

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