YouGov/Sunday Times – 41/39/11
Topline figures for the YouGov/Sunday Times poll are CON 41%, LAB 39%, LDEM 11%. Proper report to follow tomorrow morning once the Sunday Times report and the tables are up.
UPDATE: Voting intention is pretty typical of late, but some of the findings are more negative for the government. Both David Cameron and Nick Clegg’s approval ratings are down, David Cameron’s is plus 11, but Nick Clegg is minus 6, the first time he has registered a negative approval score since the general election (this does mean Ed Miliband has the highest approval rating of the three party leaders, though that will largely be the honeymoon effect – he still gets 42% don’t knows to the question).
On whether the government are running the economy well or badly we also have the first negative score since the election – 42% think they are doing well, but 45% think they are doing badly. All in all, not a good set of results for the government.
Looking at the rest of the survey, YouGov concentrated upon the spending review and the tuition fees.
On tuition fees YouGov found the same negative reactions as in the polling for the Sun during the week. Only 24% said they supported removing the cap on fees (lower than the poll in the week, but this one asked only about removing the cap – the YouGov/Sun poll in the week asked about the whole package, including raising the point where respondents had to pay back their loan, and found 38% support).
On the CSR, 29% think the government have the balance between cuts and taxes right, 29% would rather have higher taxes, 15% would rather have even larger cuts. 35% think the speed of cuts is about right, 43% think it is too fast and 8% too slow. 58% think they themselves will be affected by the cuts. All-in-all, the poll suggests people are somewhat apprehensive towards the forthcoming cuts, but we’ll obviously see their actual reaction within the week.
Personally I found the most interesting questions on the cuts were, first, that 53% think the cuts won’t be achieved (I haven’t seen a similar question asked before) and, secondly, that asked who people think will bear the biggest burden from the cuts, 48% said middle income people compared to only 35% who said people on low incomes. I shall have to have a dig around, but I think when similar questions have been asked in the past people expected people on low incomes to suffer the most. If so the switch may well be the impact of the child benefit saga.
AJ’s speech:-
So that’s it then?
No numbers
No questions.
” This ought to be a good time for Labour to gain support.
So here’s a strange thing: the bounce in party support has been the feeblest for any new Labour leader for more than half a century (just one point, the lowest since Hugh Gaitskell in 1955).
Key points
•Party support bounce following Ed Miliband’s election at just one point
•Sampling error could mean that there has, in fact, been no bounce at all
•It’s possible this is due to the fact that Ed Miliband remains an unknown quantity to voters: 42% don’t know how he is doing as leader
•Similarly, Labour’s wider image doesn’t appear to have improved among voters
•However, it should be noted that Labour support is already up 9 points on the General Election figures
•The question is, then: will the electorate be more impressed by a four-year political marathon than by Ed’s initial conference sprint?”
Peter Kellner.
YouGov
Eoin,
re the claiming of sickness benefit growing under labour.
I would actually not question this or of course put this at Labours door. Clearly if an individual is not able to work do to illness (physical or mental) there should be a safety net to ensure some provision and quality of life.
as for the first and second point i would like to check this out for myself but my immediate concern would be who collated this data. That aside I would accept your points and stand corrected that it is a misperception.
as to your last point and ‘BOUNCBACKABILITY’ which, if not in the oxford english dictionary REALLY should be! i agree with a good educatrion and motivation you are more able to secure work. however, I do not confine this to the upper classes. I come from a working class background and successfully bounced back from many setbacks (divorce, illness, losing a business…) what i find frustrating and confusing is that others from similar backgrounds to me do not seem to be able to do the same.
“…what i find frustrating and confusing is that others from similar backgrounds to me do not seem to be able to do the same.”
yes indeed.
Dont Tell Em Pike,
I enjoyed that post. Of course you are correct to say that resilience permeates all social classes. But forgive me you did say the SE of Eng did you not? For the under classes, working classes, and labour aristocracy , it is easier to bounce back in teh south because there is more jobs. In under invested parts of the NE this is not this same.
In saying that of the c8million people of working age not in employment, there are a variety of reasons as to why. 5.5 of that 8million do not want work, this is usually because they have taken early retirement or they are in full time education. 2.5million of the figure claim that they would like to work but are hindered by illness, child dependants, or lack of employment. Free nursery care or Sure Start programmes are essential for the middle category. For the first cetegory I have no problem with reassessing those on DLA. There is evidnece that reassessment brings the numbers claiming DLA down. [ h ttp://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/7946690/Almost-a-million-people-on-sickness-benefit-for-a-decade.html ]
i actually venture to say, we are having what will be looked back upon as a historic debate. Given that IDS’s reforms look set to get the goahead, and that labour supports the reforms in their entirety, I hope we are entering an era of bi-partisanship on this matter.
Two stats if I may… The area in the Uk which has the highest level of DLA claimants is Glasgow. Ove ra quarter of the adult men are on depressants, and the average life expectancy for a man is 54. I live less that 2km from an area with very similar data. An EU report into the matter, “Where have all the good men gone” would shock the bejayus out of you. I think the £4.2bn we pay annnually to these people in some areas at least, quantifies as a debt to society for its perrenial inequalities.
If one studied core-periphery economics, they would be shocked between the close correlation of these problems, and inequalities in regional investment. Although I am constantly derided for it, the north south divide has a lot to answer for.
Colin,
Nick R’s words might interest you (whilst simultaneously fustrating me by their accuracy)
“For the moment I see more politics than economics here. Labour have decided not to have an argument about the need for cuts nor to have one about welfare reform but, instead, to position themselves ready to say “I told you so” if growth falters and as defenders of child benefit and critics of bankers bonuses.”
THanks Eoin.
I thought that was where we were before EM.
I understood that he was ( via AJ) going to produce some numbers based on 1/2 deficit over 4 yrs & 50/50 split.
THe only comment I can find is that AJ proposed 60/40 spend cuts /tax rises.
It’s their shout of course-but if they are looking for nods of approval from Industry & Commerce after AJs speech they are deluded.
That was the quickest exit since GB’s premiership
Eoin,
just a minor correction – I am from the southwest not southeast. Not that this affects the north/south arguement.
i read a summary of the report that you mentioned and was indeed shocked.
I have to go to work now, but thanks for the discussion the north/south divide is more of an issue than i had given credit for and will indeed consider this more carefully.
if i remember correctly the northeast had massive investment under Labour yet the social problems still continue. To me investment is more than money, it means time, support, education, hope.
i just hope someone gets it right.
colin,
I can’t defend it. the strategy is not mine, by any means. Strategically speaking, if they say attack is the best form of defence, I am obliged to point out these every lowering growth forecasts, ask what VAT hikes will do to stimulate the economy, and ponder if a double dip is now a matter of if and not when. I wont do that, however, since I have come to learn as I get older, that these things tend to become self evident pretty quickly thus negating the need for me to mentally exhaust myslef communicating the risks.
In a nutshell the active has become passive, or impassive on my worse days. But yes, in my view we have negated to trust our convictions on this one.
Part of the increase in disability benefit claimants was due to “Care in the Community” programs, which led to a lot less people being institutionalised and put into care homes. So moved them off the books of the NHS and local councils, and onto the books of the DWP.
Another part is that the longer life expectancy, and greater survivability from loss of limbs, lung disorders and other previously terminal conditions, means we have more people who survive to be disabled.
[Snipped. If I was just off the naughty step I'd be on my best behaviour and not making posts that were just "X from the party I don't like was rubbish today, he's not up to the job" - AW]
Interesting this north south divide thing, i have the advantage of living in teh SW, hailing from Teesside and living for 4 years in Pontypridd.
That has given me a little perspective on the inequalities between different areas of the country.
Although, I feel inclined to comment on the issue I don’t think it is suitable for this forum. All i will say is I will never go back and live in the NE, I have seen far to much of the worst side of human nature in the great council estates in Stockton and Middlesbrough which have eroded my faith in human beings.
All the issues that have been discussed here are down to parenting.
There is a London Mayoral Voting Intention Poll just realeased (YG) (Excluding Dont Knows)
Boris 46%
Ken 44%
Pretty tight you might think…
When they redistribute the smaller parties such as Greens BNP LD UKIP the % figure becomes (including DKs)
Boris 46%
Ken 41%
So a little less close but still close.
Jay Blanc – “… longer life expectancy, and greater survivability”
I am not convinced that we will continue to see the increase in life expectancy on which so many projections (retirement, pensions etc) are based.
It is a statistical measure, so there are many who will not survive to see retirement.
Statistical models may have something to do disability too. Many industrial processes, chemicals, drugs, additives and so on are deemed ‘safe’ because only a small proportion of people (5% perhaps) are identified as having serious adverse reactions.
I must make a point that I would have expected Éoin to make.
For how many generations has it been acceptable for a woman’s career to be having children & bringing them up?
Now, ideally her source of her income whilst she does so, would be the childen’s father(s).
But that does not alter the fact –
1. Women being expected to have a paying career that can sustain an entire family is a relatively new expectation; &
2. To do it requires considerable self-motivation & self-esteem; &
3. Many women currently of child-rearing age, will have been raised to have low self-esteem & to defer to their fathers, brothers & men in general.
As for women with low self-esteem being ‘down-trodden in their spirit’ due to a Labour government… what utter tosh.
Amber,
My October 18th, 2010 at 11:51 am covered it in a financial angle. Since that is quantitative based, it is harder for men to refute. Your qualitiaitve argument is obviously much more realistic to women’s every day experience but I venture to say it might be lost on a few here.
Will there be a YouGov this evening?
PamF, Aye
10pm
All the issues that have been discussed here are down to parenting.
wrote SS
So we do indeed agree, as I suggested ‘education’, and this is a chicken and egg situation of poor parents breeding poor parents.
To come out of this cycle I can only suggest education in the broadest sense.
So the CSR has to exclude this area from cuts, indeed expand it at the expense of other areas? .
@Amber
“As for women with low self-esteem being ‘down-trodden in their spirit’ due to a Labour government… what utter tosh. ”
Well said.
I sometimes wonder whether I am living in a parallel universe, I work with mum’s, I know women of every size, shape, and standpoint…….where are all these women with low self esteem ? I don’t know any, are they simply a convenient vehicle for yet another political point scoring campaign………as Anthony would say…….jeez !
In contrast to you Ken, I am impressed with AJ’s clarity of thought and its expression. Could it be that it’s the London accent that swings you into deprecating his background?
I think you will find that the polls agree with me, as it happens.
Ken,
You have about 60 seconds to take that one back, before I come lookin ya
Research shows that it can affect one in four
women in their lifetimes, regardless of age, social class, race, disability or lifestyle.
Domestic violence accounts for between 16% and one quarter of all recorded violent
crime. In any one year, there are 13 million separate incidents of physical violence or
threats of violence against women from partners or former partners. (Home Office,
2004; Dodd et al., 2004; Dobash and Dobash, 1980; Walby and Allen, 2004)
Eoin, what’s your prediction for tonight’s poll then?
Pam F,
Yellows are out of the woods, for now, I think. Their scores on ‘tell yougov’ were sluggish today. Some mild positivity for reds and some mild negativity for blue. So I forsee no significant change. SNP conf. might take 1% off red. Talk of expenses fraud (3 Lords & Moran) might add one to others… So I’ll go for a…
Maybe 41/38/12
@ Éoin
Thank you for having the facts & figures to hand that will straighten out Ken’s mis-apprehension of the situations that many women face every day.
As those with any empathy appreciate, it takes more than a Zero Tolerance campaign to undo the damage that has already been done.
Amber/Ken,
Of the rapes that were reported from 2007 to 2008, only 6.5% resulted in a conviction, compared with 34% of criminal cases in general.
Amber/ Ken,
In 2008:
When calculated using the mean rather than the median, women’s hourly pay was 16.4 per cent less than men’s pay for full-time employees
@Éoin………If you come lookin’ you’ll find me surrounded by strong women, they’ll see you off in double quick time.
Amber/Ken,
26% of children have no contact with their biological father. I last seen mine on telly lol
Amber/Ken
21% of girls (not women Ken theones under 16) have experienced sexual abuse.
Ken,
c.40% of girls aged 15/6 self harm.
@Howard
Yes I agree that education is the answer, however we would probably disagree on both the people to educate and the methods.
My experiences in housing estates in Stockton and Middlesbrough would lead me to suggest that large swathes of the current parents you can’t help, they don’t want to be helped. So the difficulty is getting to the children whose parents are actually anti school.
To mend the problems you have to accept that there are large numbers who can’t be helped. Break the cycle with the kids.
For every hopeful story I saw, there was one where you would despair.
My nana started and ran a Sunday school in Middlesbrough, she did a lot for the kids, indeed everything humanly possible. But unless you were going to split up families there were always kids you couldn’t help. Even for me at 10 years old it has haunted me, as I have grown older the lack of action by authorities on some of the stuff that happened I just can never get over.
The key level of education is to 16 – get that right and the rest will follow.
And I hate to say this, you have to stop the baby factories. People can bleat on about basic human rights or about it being a Daily Mail thing, but there are people who breed for money, then their kids breed for money and so the cycle goes on.
Bit of a rant sorry….
Apoligies everyone else – that’s me finsihed now.
@EION
I haven’t seen my father since I was 12.
I baby sat a whole family who were abused by there father, the eldest girl tried to tell me and I didn’t get it….he got 12 years….
There were 2 girls at the sunday school who were fathered by there grandfather and everyone knew it
But I turned out ok ( well apart from being a tory I suppose you would say ) so did all the others apart from the Sunday school girls I don’t know about them…..
@Éoin……..There’s lies, damn lies, and statistics.
@ Éoin
Thanks
SimpleSimon,
Built of strong stuff id say. Basic human insticnt is survival, if your measuring okay as in ‘fine ‘alright’ is that really enough? Studies have shown that one of the best ways of coping with trauma is to tell yourself you are coping. To block it out, to paper over it. When life is on the up, this works, you ‘soldier’ on as they say. When you face a set back, or in your moments of despair it will likely return. At some point, you’ll try to confront it. There are gendered differences in the way we deal with trauma. With all due respect you can’t possibly no how well these women are coping.
If the struggle to maintain normal sexual relations with a future partner, or kick start their day with a boost from the medicine cupboard, you have no possible way of knowing. Self harmers do not put their plight in neon lights, au contraire, the harm behind their knees or their scalp where it is undetectable. The stats speak for themselves… for many a life of early abuse, turns into alater life of domestic abus, tranquilizers and rearing children alone. I could colour this with anecdotes but I fear I would depress you.
@Colin
we struggle to recruit graduates, there are so few engineering graduates who can :
a) write
b) have common sense
That we now recruit lower than graduates, pay for a part time degree, and give them the training so that they have the work based skills on top of the degree.
There is a shrinking pool of quality british engineers.
@ Simple Simon
And I hate to say this, you have to stop the baby factories.
———————————————–
No, you don’t ‘hate to say it’ – or you wouldn’t. You like to say it. You enjoy dehumanising & insulting women by using terms like “breeder” & “baby factory”.
If you ‘hated to say it’, you’d speak about mothers – why do you need other terms to describe a parent of the female gender?
ken,
Iona beckons unless you retract… friendly advice I assure you.
SS
I totally agree with you and I don’t see why you would be surprised at that (??).
I am not fond of religion, but at least such places get the children away from home and you can reject the god bit if you wish when you grow up and think for yourself (as I did).
Trouble is with Sunday schools, care homes and the rest, they tend to expose our poor bewildered children to the risk of equal abuse as they are a magnet for those sort of people as well as the good ones. You gather I am not hopeful really, to be honest..
I too think some of the responses were deeply offensive and I don’t mind if mine are deleted along with the rest.
Baby factories indeed!
@Eion,
I could go into a lot more details about things I’ve seen and done, but not here. Its not strength its choice, its circumstance whatever. I believe in people, I just wish more would believe in themselves.
My mantra if you like, is that life isn’t fair, it never will be so tough get over it and get on with it because its too short as it is. Easier said than done.
I have always enjoyed reading the posts on this site, but I do think it is a little bubble, the make up of the people don’t accurately reflect the voting public.
The success of New Labour was founded on the middle ground, the coalition is founded on the middle ground.
Moving away from that is electoral succeed, I find it intriguing that the polls have always seemed to reflect this.
At the moment we just seem to have the politics of fear.
AJs bit today was all about fear, cuts will be bad, we won’t cut so much etc etc is just trying to play on peoples fears…..
This narrative will only be successful in the short term, it won’t be in 2015. Different ball game then
To be on topic, polls at the moment don’t really matter that much unless the coalition collapses.
@ Howard
Thanks for your support.
@Howard
Always be hopeful, I am, for every bad thing you see there is always something that balances it out, and in general just as ye sow ye shall reap.
I am not religious, too much church too young.
Sorry if offended anyone, but as I stated earlier, how people perceive things to be is much more important than they actually are….
Well as we are to remain civilised I must amplify to say that the challenge for the CSR is to offer the children a better future and i think that must occur away somewhere in the case of failing parents or the whole family has to be taken away from its situation.
But I have no ideas to offer IDS et al other than best of British.
@ SS
To be on topic, polls at the moment don’t really matter that much unless the coalition collapses.
———————————————–
So, you are not even interested in the mission of this site? You just dropped by to ‘have your say’? I’d like to say it’s been fun… but it wasn’t.
@Amber
No not at all, I am interested, I have posted since earlier this year before the election just different username someone nicked mine. I just responded to posts earlier in the day, then maybe that got out of hand.
It is never my aim to insult anyone, I have clearly offended you and that is not something I wanted to do, for that I apologise unreservedly.
My original post this morning that started the discussion was about perception and how the public perceive them to be rather than how they are, and that in general opinion polls reflect that…. the rest is a follow on from that…
Again sorry no offence of anyone was intended, i will be more careful in future.
Simon, (I am sorry this is long) (sorry others also).
I no women who set up Ireland’s first rape crisis centre. I know women who set up Ireland’s first women’s aid centre. i know women who set up Ireland’s first mainstream women’s centre and also one in a nationalist ghetto. On a professional level I have discussed these women’s work with them at lenght. I have also read very widely on the topic. You are making some fundamnetla misassumptions, that are significantly skewing your argument.
Vulnerability. Poverty or aspiration and opportunity. Mental health. These are issues which are often out of the control of women. It does not matter if they could crush kryptonite with their buttocks, there simply in many cases is not the means to better themselves. I don’t wish to go into personal anecodtes, and I hope I can persuade you without having to, so for now, I’ll resist.
Lets pick to faceless and nameless adults in a bland contextual setting.
A is female B is male. A suffers child abuse. Overwhelming evidence is that as a method of coping, she will go to great lengths to debeautify herslef- let’s say she deliberately comfort eats. So for wnat of a better word she is fat. LEt’s also say that as a cry for help she underperfomrs at school. A-levels come and go and she is tuck with poor grades. A meets B in whatever setting, he sees a weak and vulnerable woman who is willing to do his bidding. He procreates with her, a vchil dis born. As a method of coping with her last trauma, the woman adopts a daughter-father style relationship with the partner. He takes advantage, and controls and dictates her life. It is logical to assume that she may feel worthless. Her day to day existence may be caring for the child while he earns. Eventually when he tires of his ‘plaything’ he will take one of three routes… proceed to inflcit violecne upon her to cope with his own failing/esteem issues… drink & gamble their money and leave the child in deprevaition. Or perhaps he sets up camp with a ‘new woman’. To cope with the deprivation, she has been popping valium 9 to the dozen. She is now barely past her mid 20s, twice abused in two separate ways, and has now esteem. Frankly, even the most well meaning guy is going to find this girl entirely undesireable. Thus she is on the heap. Just at apoint when most gap year suburban kids are graduating, establishign careers or perhaps falling in love.. a zillion light years away, yet in relaity perhaps across the street, there is a woman lonely, and feeling worthless.
Now she dresses the kid in the best, sends her/him off to school, puts her life and soul into her children and hey presto she is maybe one of the so called surivors you talk about. But if the state begrudge giving that woman benefits, then in my view they are not a state at all.
What saddens me is that if this girl does decide to start another relationship, and have another kid.. therby taking in my view one of the only options open to her ‘a second chance’ the new guy is likely to spot the same vulnerabilities and feck her over twice as bad as the first one. Before you know it the Daily Mail probably have her benefits calculated and some label ascribed to her. Now e shouldn’t play politics with these women. Their cost to the state is a lot less than we might imagine. The saddest thing in the latest update is that the second boyfriend by this stage is taking a long hard look at the son/daughter- perhaps they are now ‘ripe’ for the picking. And there you have our self perpetuating cycle, that I see mocked on a daily basis.