YouGov/Sunday Times – 41/39/11
Topline figures for the YouGov/Sunday Times poll are CON 41%, LAB 39%, LDEM 11%. Proper report to follow tomorrow morning once the Sunday Times report and the tables are up.
UPDATE: Voting intention is pretty typical of late, but some of the findings are more negative for the government. Both David Cameron and Nick Clegg’s approval ratings are down, David Cameron’s is plus 11, but Nick Clegg is minus 6, the first time he has registered a negative approval score since the general election (this does mean Ed Miliband has the highest approval rating of the three party leaders, though that will largely be the honeymoon effect – he still gets 42% don’t knows to the question).
On whether the government are running the economy well or badly we also have the first negative score since the election – 42% think they are doing well, but 45% think they are doing badly. All in all, not a good set of results for the government.
Looking at the rest of the survey, YouGov concentrated upon the spending review and the tuition fees.
On tuition fees YouGov found the same negative reactions as in the polling for the Sun during the week. Only 24% said they supported removing the cap on fees (lower than the poll in the week, but this one asked only about removing the cap – the YouGov/Sun poll in the week asked about the whole package, including raising the point where respondents had to pay back their loan, and found 38% support).
On the CSR, 29% think the government have the balance between cuts and taxes right, 29% would rather have higher taxes, 15% would rather have even larger cuts. 35% think the speed of cuts is about right, 43% think it is too fast and 8% too slow. 58% think they themselves will be affected by the cuts. All-in-all, the poll suggests people are somewhat apprehensive towards the forthcoming cuts, but we’ll obviously see their actual reaction within the week.
Personally I found the most interesting questions on the cuts were, first, that 53% think the cuts won’t be achieved (I haven’t seen a similar question asked before) and, secondly, that asked who people think will bear the biggest burden from the cuts, 48% said middle income people compared to only 35% who said people on low incomes. I shall have to have a dig around, but I think when similar questions have been asked in the past people expected people on low incomes to suffer the most. If so the switch may well be the impact of the child benefit saga.
@Rob Sheffield………I have recently been suffering the purgatory of long term naughty step, I expect a bit of sympathy, not a bullying threat, I expected better from you than egging Anthony on to return me whence I have recently come. I, incidentally, have a ‘proper’ degree, from a ‘proper’ university, that is in no way meant to intimidate you.
@Eion
Point taken, I was insensitive (understatement). Again sorry.
I have personal experience of what you are talking about.
1) The family I babysat.
2) I was a jurer on a trial. I cried openly. The whole thing was awful. I could do nothing. I just wanted to help. I obviously can’t go into more. But I lost some of my hope in humanity at that point. Not with the case but with the attitudes of the rest of the jury. The defendant was found not guilty. I cried a lot.
I should have thought more carefully before typing.
@ Eoin
It’s a rotten little world.
Simon,
You rposts informed me greatly. in particular your AM ones were very valuable. Don’t be getting yourself down. There are some women who deal with it well… Ilike to think my sisters are coping well for example, and my mother. But equally, I have taught and came accross many who deal with it less well. Life is all grey. SO for the record, you did not offend me at all…
Now Professor Ken on the other hand?
Billy,
It need not be. Just you put Julian’s teenage mating rituals out of your mind and stick to your own plan (teasing Julian).
@Éoin……Great post, incidentally, could you introduce me to the lady with the Kryptonite crushing buttocks………!
Eoin,
I’ve pleaded with, cajoled and been verbally abused by any number of women such as you describe. Part of the problem is that although you can see their lives for what they are, the women themselves seldom do so.
@ Eoin
Ha, ha, no promises
The example that you gave (and this thread in general a little) reminded me of some other little horror – the reason for the downbeat sentiment.
Ken,
Put that humour to good use, and change the topic for us
That is before you packed up to Colmcille’s abbey.
Neil A,
And can you balme them if that is all they’ve known? And as you well know.. the predatorial men among us can spot these women from a mile off… they on the other hand convince themsleves it was love at first sight. It is hard to justify denying someone the right to romance, whatever the merits.
@ SSimon
To respect other people, is to respect yourself. Ask yourself, why use derogatory phrases just because others do? Protect your own self esteem, if nothing else. Using such phrases brings you down.
Lecture over & apology accepted.
The problem is Eoin, that you could tell a tale of woe about just about everyone with a problem in our society. I’m sure I could weave the lives of some of those predatory men into a tragedy that would make you weep.
At what point do we stop making excuses and deal with what’s in front of our eyes?
@Éoin…….I don’t know where Colmcille’s abbey is, I think I can guess, knowing your dubious associates, but I don’t scare easy, however, as a reasonable Bluebottle I am prepared to meet your request, in the common interest.
Rob Sheffield…….now there’s a subject !
Blimey, is it any wonder that so few women post on this site.
Some of you should hang your heads in shame
Neil A,
yes you’re right. Women need leislative intervention to aid them. A helping hand from the state.
1. Sure start
2. Minimum wage
3. Child Tax Credit
4. Maternity Leave
5. Working Tax Credit
6. Change in evidence requirements for domestic violence
7. Change in the laws around small number sof owmen keeping brothels.
8. Changes in the eivdence procedures for rape trials to attempt to boost convictions.
9. Family custody hearings in public.
10. Contact Point
New Labour 1997-2010. Principally Harriet Harma nd Gordon Brown. Tony Blair’s assault on the culture of machismo also helped considerably. (as did David beckham’s sarong but that’s another story).
Ken,
No it iant what you think. Its a religous establishment in the north of Scotland. Colmiclle was sent there as his naughty step 1500 years ago.
Amber,
Now do you see why I didnt go down your route…? I get this response every time I do.
@Éoin……..Tony Blair’s assault on the culture of machismo………..you cannot be serious ! Iraq, Blair’s babes ! …………….To paraphrase Anthony……….Jeez..!.
@Eoin,
I agree with most of those measures, although 6) is actually a public relations sleight of hand as the evidence requirements haven’t really changed, only police policy on arrest.
I’d take 7) even further to full legalisation, but actually Labour were beginning to move in the other direction, towards the criminalisation of money-for-sex transactions.
9) I actually have serious reservations about. The confidentiality was there for a reason. I would have preferred a better scrutiny regime rather than opening up the hearings.
We’ve both shared our dismay at the abandonment of ContactPoint, although it wasn’t really about women, it was about children.
What I’ll never do is subscribe to the “oh poor dear, his/her life has been terrible so we’ll let him/her behave to a lower standard than we’d expect of normal people” trap. We all have choices. The state has a responsibility to hold out it’s hand to us, but we have a responsibility to take it.
Eoin: Yes, it has made a difference to women.
Of course, all of us, men and women need a help from the state sometimes.
I would not have the life I have if I had not been born and lived under a National Health Service, had attended good state schools and been in a receipt of a grant to enjoy and benefit from a univeristy education.
As a working woman I am now happy to pay taxes so that others can enjoy this too. I do not want to see opportunites for others diminished just because I have a good life myself
There is a nasty divisive feeling around in society these days, everyone out for themselves.
Oh for Pete’s Sake, I can’t even make an eight point without it getting Smiley’d!
NeilA,
That sentiment is what makes you a Tory and me a Social Democrat. I am happy to accept the difference. You have to deal with this stuff every day. More often than not, I am lucky to observe it from ‘some’ distance. I think the state should be everpresent, overbearing, humungous and unrelenting…
That is until i t’withers’.
PamF,
Good post. I agree with all of it. Individualism is a curse. But one I accept, the majoirty of our citizens seem to thrive on (or at least think they thrive on).
Agree with most of those, although I think 6) has been a little counter productive, the few small business owners I know either recruit woman unlikely to have children or on short term contracts to avoid some of the maternity legislation. One is a woman.
Not for a minute saying this is right just observing.
@Eoin,
I’m happy to split the difference. Your social democrat leanings tugging too far towards tolerance, my Tory leanings tugging too far towards harshness. Somewhere in the middle is a constructive way forward.
@PamF,
I basically agree with you, despite my politics. Unlike you I am reasonably optimistic, though. Cash is tight, for now at least, but I feel like all the main parties are reasonably serious about making/keeping Britain a decent place for everyone.
Ken,
Didnt he take paternity leave?
And he even got a bit emotional once! Before the advent of Tony Blair, you English had something stuffed up your posteriors. I think he loosened you lto up a bit 
An Irishman can get through every emotion on the spectrum in half an hour… I don’t think you lot ever quite make it round that spectrum… unless Nick Faldo clear the Snady Lyle bunker 3 shots in front.
@Éoin……….Gottcha…..you’re a pre 1928 Anarchist, join the club.
Ken,
That would be GreenGrass…
Now I am stuck in the previous century 
Laszlo frequents it occasionally 
Eoin
Actually you’re almost entirely wrong about Sickness Benefit (Incapacity Benefit). It was under the Conservatives that it rose steeply. Under Labour it went up slightly in the first term, plateaued in the second and actually went down in the third (with a small kick since the recession). Graph and information here:
ht tp://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201011/cmselect/cmpubacc/404/40405.htm#note4
So can everyone stop going on about Labour building up a “votebank” (to use that useful Indian term) of those on benefits. Unless you can prove that Thatcher and major were undercover Labour agents, the figures disprove it.
[A bit late I'm afraid but about to post when UKPR fell over and haven't had chance since - it's still true though
]
@ Eoin
I agree with most (maybe all) of your conclusions on the subject of women in today’s society. But you probably need to check the figures in 6:58 and 7 pm (self harm is an underdefined and not very well understood psychological phenomenon). I guess they are suspect extrapolations (for example deep in the appendixes of some Home Office studies they do make it clear, but not in the main texts because it causes all kinds of problems with policy making. Charity studies are notoriously unreliable because of the conflict between keeping the activists keen and making warranted distinctions).
Having said that, even a much smaller figure is awful and symptoms of core problems in the society.
@ Eoin
“Laszlo frequents it occasionally”
Yes…
. I just had to write a short paper on reduction in inventory in Irish manufacturing in the pre-2008 period. The alluded bearded 19th century author helped me to arrange the logic 
of the argument. The paper was rather well received, although I did not inform the industrialists where the logic came from.
I thought WH came over rather haplessly this evening (interested if Blue colleagues agree) and I have never fallen for this ‘previous lot writing blank cheque’ nonsense that’s been going on since I was a nipper.
What is our estimate of the poll next Sunday (YG).
Mine is Con 38 Lab 42 LD 10.
Shall we start our usual bets rather than await the actual CSR itself? Perhaps we could have a ‘before CSR’ and post CSR estimate?
Roger,
If you plotted that line against the unemployment figures you would see
1) Sickness nos 100s did go UP from 1997 (remember you need to include to May 2010)
2) JSA count fell dramatically.
It is these juxtapositions that make my point an accurate one, although I never said it was a vote bank, au contraire.
_______________________
Also LDs gov. approv is not an internal crossbreak is it
amber
fantastic post 6.03 pm
@Éoin………You have to factor in all the unecessary public sector jobs created by Nu-Labour to gerry… oh, sorry, to build a fairer society……….and of course all the Labour territory focussed Regional Development and Re-Generation aid. When we talk about growth, this time, let’s make it real, and for goodness sake let’s not take out a second mortgage on the manse.
@Howard
“What is our estimate of the poll next Sunday (YG)/
Mine is Con 38 Lab 42 LD 10″
Mine is something like 41-40-10.
And for tonight something like
42- 38- 12
Latest Sun/YouGov results 18th Oct 2010;
CON 41%, LAB 39%, LD 12%;
APPROVAL -2
ooohhhh just out !
Within MOE anyway Rob
“Broken pledges are always worth noting, so let us record that Ed Miliband will not attend the TUC’s rally against the cuts tomorrow in Central Hall, across the road from the Commons. When he was running for leader he said he would “attend the rally definitely”. Now it turns out he is busy.”
Brogan-Telegraph
Eoin
Well you did say “If you were to pinpoint and area of genuine growth under Labour, it is the amount of people claiming sickness related benefits. I was making the point that the really big rise was under the Tories. What increase there was under Labour (which I described) was probably more due a bigger workforce and other factors that have been mentioned (eg people surviving longer with cancer).
I know you didn’t say it was a votebank (a word NI politics could do with, don’t you think?
) and I didn’t say you did. But other people had been ranting on about Labour creating a class reliant on the state who would be obliged to vote for them forever. Apart from the fact it’s often difficult to get these people to vote for anyone, I was making the point that this group hadn’t been created under Labour anyway.
Oh and Lib Dem supporters are technically a cross-break in the same way that an age or regional category would be. It’s just that there aren’t the same bias problems.
Colin,
Yes, noted.
Ironicaly, I march tomorrow… against the Browne report which I had not expected to be published before the 19/10/10. Funny old world.
@Eoin -
I work in the field that you touched on – abuse, sexual, emotional and physical… and sorry to be so sexist, but I really appreciated a man understanding that the ramifications of abuse are complex, diverse and more often than not deeply damaging in adult life – frequently resulting in more abuse from not just from self or partners but also from the powers that be and polite society.
A similar case could be made for the inner city gangs and their violence.
Roger,
But they arent an internal cross break!
No internal weighting required to get their gov. approval. that combined with HArris’s rather strange equivocation on MoE, means that like for likes are permissable 
Your chart btw only included a fraction of those on sickness.. DLA, incapacity etc are all separate measurements. If you go back and look at the 100s, it only accounts for 1/3 of the overall claimants.
Sorry to be pedantic, but you did take me to task
Syzygy ,
thank you that is very kind of you. It was the subject of my MA and PhD, so I guess i have been thinking about for a very long time. Family circumstances contributed significantly to. thank you
@ Eoin – Keep on speaking out. Unfortunately in the way of the world, it is much more difficult to dismiss an articulate informed man than a similarly informed and articulate women. And thank you.
I know this thread is almost closed but:
Agree with most of those, although I think 6) [maternity leave] has been a little counter productive, the few small business owners I know either recruit woman unlikely to have children or on short term contracts to avoid some of the maternity legislation. One is a woman.
Not for a minute saying this is right just observing.
—————————————————
Women having babies on benefits & Employers not hiring women who might become pregnant; or wanting the power to replace [i.e. sack] pregnant women.
Not for a minute saying this is related – just observing.
@Syzygy
Not quite sure what to make of your remark to Eoin?! Surely boys suffer abuse to almost the same degree as girls? Why shouldn’t men understand the long term effects? I suppose because we are less “emotional” beings on the whole?
I want to break the cycle of abuse. That means either preventing the birth of children into households where abuse occurs or tackling the behaviours that are transmitted from one generation to the next. I am not sure that welfare-dependency helps people overcome their past and bequeath a better future.
@ NeilA – You are absolutely correct. Both boys and girls suffer abuse, and not only does each individual carry their own specific response to the abuse, but over and above that, the expectations that a child has of how their gender ‘should’ behave has it’s impact. Hence the under-reporting of male rape, and the impact of male rape is in some respects experienced similarly to female rape and in other ways is experienced quite differently.
Men are not less ‘emotional’ beings than women, but there is a cultural message to men ‘not to be a big girl’s blouse’, and in general this results in men being more reluctant to speak out, and/or to perhaps distrust their own emotional reactions because they don’t fit with their internal stereotype of ‘normal’ male reactions.
My reaction to Eoin was that he had the factual grasp and expressed his own empathy in a nuanced manner which was much more sophisticated than people in general, male or female. However, his maleness, and being prepared to post his understanding, made him even more unusual – because of the cultural rules for male behaviour.
I have no doubt that you and most people wish to break the cycle of abuse. However, understanding the nature and implications of abuse is a pre-requisite for cutting the cycle, and on the whole, addressing ‘welfare-dependency’ is not IMO addressing the real issues.
okay as the spending review is coming up here is my bet on what YouGov’s poll will show on the weekend:
Lab 41% Con 39% LD 9%
Any other takers?
p.s. please note that this is pure speculation.