Saturday normally doesn’t see any polls being published, so I missed a new ComRes poll for the Indy last night. Topline figures were CON 39%(+2), LAB 36%(+1), LDEM 15%(nc), Others 10%(-3). Changes are from ComRes’s previous online poll a fortnight ago and the poll was conducted wholly after Ed Miliband’s leader’s speech.

Last week I also missed a YouGov Welsh poll. Voting intention figures there with changes from August’s YouGov/ITV Wales poll are CON 22%(nc), LAB 44%(+5), LDEM 11%(+1), Plaid 19%(-4) for the constituency vote; CON 20%(-1), LAB 41%(+2), LDEM 12%(+3), Plaid 19%(-4) for the regional vote. Voing intention in the referendum on extra powers for the Welsh Assembly stands at YES 49%(+1), NO 30%(-2).


111 Responses to “New ComRes VI and YouGov Welsh polls”

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  1. I do! And the whole world soon will.

  2. Roger,

    It is a fascinating topic- party membership. I have studies quantitatively the membership of several Irish political parties. 87% of Sinn Féin was from Derry city or Belfast city for example- but even if you look at (which I have, the Tupanmaros, sandanista or Fidelista you will find a corrleation between political activism and urbanity. Now thins does not answer your question directly, but it might help if you gave me a breakdown of the 16 biggys outside London- where are they?

    Urbanity and acitivism in lefits politics (oops centrist for some) has a lot to do with the formation of group identity. Large industrial towns enable that to happen quicker than less concentrated populated ares… so the big Dynamo’s in Petrograd/Moscow are examples of that… close proximity and community identity among the lower classes occurs more quickly in these areas…

    Better still, if you charted the top twenty labour CLPs by boroughs- and compared them with the poorest boroughs- you might (I am surmising) find a correlation.

    Your Bethnal Greens/ Tower Hamlets or Hackney would feature on that list- I would guess.

    Before anyone posts about rural activism and the country side alliance- I am simply talking about lower socio-economic profile and activism.

    I would love to see a gender breakdown of Labour party memebrship by borough- but I guess that is elusive.

  3. @Roger Mexico

    “Can any of the Labour people here explain the massive discrepancy between where the Labour members are and where the Labour seats are? I’d noticed the tendency before, but when I went through the list to discover that 33 of the 73 London seats had big LP memberships, but only 15 of the nearly 600 outside, it was a shock.”

    Er, Liberal Metropolitan Elites…….?

  4. Roger – Not so.

    It is the “fight for the marginals” bandwagon that has made people switch off.

    Why on earth would anyone vote for you when you swoop in for 6 months and then bug**r off as soon as the election is over?

    We might not overturn those massive majorities this time or even the next, but working every day of the next 5 years will help.

    As Roland points out, Labour needs to start being relevant to the south again.

  5. Oh yes, and think of the springboard all those people not tactically voting Lib to keep the Tories out will give THAT project. :)

  6. Garry K – Yes.

  7. Yougov: 39/41/11

  8. Oh Daniel, thank you so much :) :) :)

    Boiiiinnnnggggg

  9. @ Julian Gilbert

    The rendition & torture allegations is certainly one of the issues that David would have had to deal with in the full glare of the spotlight with the right wing media spinning like Jenny to avoid David being given a fair & accurate hearing.

    IMO, One ought not to inflict the media storm that surrounds such ‘investigations’ on one’s family or Party. And that would only have been the beginning. There are other things that are better dealt with outside the media spotlight.

    Éoin hinted at this stuff, in the past. He was trying to explain why he disliked the idea of David as leader of the Labour Party; therefore it is not just I who have read & heard some things that I sincerely hope are inaccurate smears.

    Be assured, had David become leader every single one of these issues would have been subject to the hyperbole of the media. It would have been a huge distraction from leading the opposition & moving towards a Labour victory. 8-)

  10. Ooooh AND libs on 11

  11. The LD’s conference boost did not materialise until Sunday (last).
    The Reds conference boost did not materialise until Sunday (this).
    will the Blues conference boost not materialise until Sunday (next)?
    _________________________________

    red gain seems to be coming more at yellow expense.

    On May 2010

    Yellows are now -13%
    Blues are +2%
    Reds are +11%
    ___________________________________

    once all ‘this’ settles down we will probably be looking at 40/39/12

  12. Has the BNP disappeared off all polls and gone back to being its nutter head banging roots?

    Hopefully.

  13. @ Sue

    “us activists got a direct mail today. Movement for change X 10!!”

    Do you mean the project gameplan?

    “All about invigorating the grassroots, training, local party organisers, connecting with the electorate on a personal level…If there were 2, 3 ,4 times as many of us, all trained to do the job well, all singing from the same hymnsheet, Labour would be unstoppable…Why? Because we’d be out there, talking to the people we want to represent – middle class, working class or little green alien. Just like we were 90 years ago”

    “It is the “fight for the marginals” bandwagon that has made people switch off…Why on earth would anyone vote for you when you swoop in for 6 months and then bug**r off as soon as the election is over?…We might not overturn those massive majorities this time or even the next, but working every day of the next 5 years will help…As Roland points out, Labour needs to start being relevant to the south again.”

    “Oh yes, and think of the springboard all those people not tactically voting Lib to keep the Tories out will give THAT project. :)”

    I strongly concur with you. It has been my first canvassing experience in a local council election over the last few weeks. There are a lot of previously Lib Dem voters out there who are no longer entirely convinced by the “vote Lib Dem to keep out the Tories” line arguement.

  14. Latest YouGov/Sunday Times voting intention CON 39%, LAB 41%, LDEM 11%

    Latest government approval: 0 (Approve 41%, Disapprove 41%)

    Well I feel a tiny bit more reassured by THESE numbers :-)

  15. @ Sue

    Labour ahead by 2 points in YG & ICM!!!

    You had better Move for Change quickly or we will be back in government before you’ve had time to really enjoy yourself. ;-)

  16. Amber – TeeHee (I only use those to annoy ;) )

    Just watch us Move!!

    And who do you think will provide the “Before all you reds get too excited…” post? :lol:

  17. Amber

    “IMO, One ought not to inflict the media storm that surrounds such ‘investigations’ on one’s family or Party.”

    Mmmm. But if you had been involved in serious breaches of all kinds of nasty things (which I can’t imagine you ever would be), don’t you think the embarrassment to your family would be inevitable?

    If you had done something equally nasty in a political role, shouldn’t that reflect on the Party on whose behalf you did it?

    Your post carries the implication that even if one of your own has done immoral/illegal etc things, that it is better for that to be buried (pun absolutely intentional) than to cause family/political disadvantage.

    I can’t believe you would mean such a thing.

  18. Amber – In all seriousness though, when Eoin claimed Labour would go ahead on September 25th (? Kudos)
    I didn’t think there was any way it could happen until the CSR or even beyond.

    On May 11th, I thought 41% would be a long, long, long way off :)

  19. Before all you reds get too excited, ATTAD is a whopping 9 points ahead. I got them both in first.

  20. Eoin
    “red gain seems to be coming more at yellow expense.”

    I agree. To me this means the unwinding of tactical voting by those who voted yellow to keep blue out. If that is true, blue will not suffer much, and might even benefit. My logic is thus: There will be a tranche of seats where blue and yellow are first and second where tactical voting takes place. If many yellow votes go to red, yellow will lose some seats to blue, and red are unlikely to gain as many (becuas they were already third).

  21. Julian – ROFL.

    ATTAD Only 9%??? Tonight gets better and better!!

    I’m very concerned to hear about DM, the man I met on his campaign was very nice.

    Still, as all the delegates flooded out of the hall after Ed’s speech, I lost count of the people who felt “This might be all for the best..”

    Where is Greengrass and his elephants when you need them?

  22. What is this ATTAD that I see mentioned here?

  23. Pete B,

    “Unwinding of tactical voting”.

    copyright that phrase.

    It is the best description I have ever heard to eluciade yellow demise
    ______________________________________

    In credit to yellows, however, they are staying resolutely in double figures. I thought we would see an 8% before xmas.

  24. OldNat

    Add
    Together
    Tories
    And
    Dems

  25. Sue Marsh

    Julian – ROFL.

    [i]Still, as all the delegates flooded out of the hall after Ed’s speech[/i]

    That was noticed in Scotland. With Murphy and Grey about to speak, we assumed it was them and not the fact that there was a Scots contribution. :-)

  26. Garry K

    I was looking at Constituency Labour Parties where more than 500 ballot papers were sent out. See list here:

    ht tp://www2.labour.org.uk/leadership-clps

    Eoin

    I suspect gentrification rather than poverty may be the link. Politically disproportionally many are also Labour/Lib Dem marginals – often Lib Dem held.

    There’s a sub-set with a large Asian population – these tended to have lower turnouts in the leadership contest.

    Sue

    It is the “fight for the marginals” bandwagon that has made people switch off.

    Presumably people in the marginals wouldn’t switch off ? Of course a major Party has to fight everywhere, but you do need to prioritise under whatever electoral system you’re stuck with.

    Everyone

    I’m waiting till I see 3 consistent polls in a row before I say anything.

  27. Sue

    Thanks

    In Scotland it has to be ATTDAL.

  28. Oldnat – I am Jim Murphy’s new biggest fan :)

    His voice is dreamy and I urge you to YouTube him at the Movement for Change rally!

  29. @ Eoin

    How big an effect does tactical voting have?

    Anecdotal evidence would suggest that there are a large proportion of voters who are well aware of who is in second place against whichever of the parties they least like to win.

    I’ve not yet seen any numbers which back this up though.

  30. @ Old Nat

    I can’t believe you would mean such a thing.
    ————————————
    I certainly don’t. I do not believe that David Miliband is guilty of anything except being naive. I think that during the investigation he will be able to calmly & clearly make his case. I think he would not have got that chance, if he had been leader.

    And, as I said, if the investigation finds that rendition & torture was perpetrated on British citizens with the knowledge of the cabinet (as opposed to individuals) & /or with the blessing of senior people who continue to have a major role in the Labour Party – I will not vote for them. 8-)

  31. Sue

    I’m glad you stayed put then, as the hordes of delegates flooded past you. I presume you had the sense to leave before Iain Grey spoke?

  32. @Eoin – “The Reds conference boost did not materialise until Sunday (this).”

    Slight factual correction surely – Lab were on 40% on 27th and 28th, including the first lead since 2007 on the first of those days? This is merely a return to those levels after a minor settling back in between.

  33. Zeph,

    Yellow/Red tactical voting has been happening arguably since the 1900s. Where people fall down in their understanding of red/yellow tv. is that they think it factos only in polls for the 4 weeks pre GE.

    The extent of it was measured in April and commented on by Anthony. If he would re-post the link it would be appreciated.

    Roger,

    I know that’s your theory- and you may be correct- but humour me? where are the constits. outside London that you would class as the biggys?

    In a movement you are correct to say that educated folk tend to assume official positions. There is much statisitical evidence to prove it. But rank and file membership usually has a poverty correlation.

  34. Sorry Oldnat, I did.

  35. @ Old Nat & Sue

    With Murphy and Grey about to speak, we assumed it was them and not the fact that there was a Scots contribution.
    ————————————————-
    ROFL :-)

    Jim Murphy is adorable; Iain Grey seems to be a very decent man & a hard working politician but he was definitely behind the door when God handed out charisma. ;-)

  36. I do hope DM does continue to mastermind the Movement for Change during his ” downtime”.

    It seemed to be the thing he was most passionate about during the leadership election.

    But then I read that he bailed out of the M for C rally at conference so I began to wonder was it all just for show?

    I guess we’ll have to wait and see…..

  37. Alec,

    Slight yes,

    I meant vis a vis yellow/blue-

    reds are now 30% ahead of yellow.

  38. Zeph,

    Yellow/Red tactical voting has been happening arguably since the 1900s. Where people fall down in their understanding of red/yellow tv. is that they think it factos only in polls for the 4 weeks pre GE.

    The extent of it was measured in April and commented on by Anthony. If he would re-post the link it would be appreciated.

    Roger,

    I know that’s your theory- and you may be correct- but humour me? where are the constituencies outside London that you would class as the biggys?

    In a movement you are correct to say that educated folk tend to assume official positions. There is much statisitical evidence to prove it. But rank and file membership usually has a poverty correlation.

  39. Amber

    That’s a fair statement.

    You’ll understand that your qualification (“with the knowledge of the cabinet (as opposed to individuals) & /or with the blessing of senior people who continue to have a major role in the Labour Party “) is what concerns me.

    I have no evidence (other than the comments from some workers at my nearest airport) to substantiate these allegations of rendition flights. However, if they are accurate I would expect severe retribution to be taken against the Party which loyally supported their “leader” allowing such things.

    Yet again, it’s the loyalty of their supporters which would allow a delusional egomaniac in charge of a party (or even Blair) to get away with what they do/are alleged to do.

  40. Sue Marsh is a wise woman. There are two things you must know about her. She is wise … and she is a woman!

  41. @ Sue

    On May 11th, I thought 41% would be a long, long, long way off…
    —————————————————————
    I actually thought that >40% would be a barrier that Labour would really struggled to breech.

    To win 50% of the vote is now an ambition rather than a dream. Imagine Movement for Change winning Labour a ‘true’ majority of voters. How marvellous would that be?! :-)

  42. It seems that some reds have been unnecessarily gloomy on here tonight.there is not even a shadow cabinet yet or any specific policy announcements! Lets all just keep calm and carry on.Goodnight everyone from a rather wet Wales.

  43. @Amber Star – “… some things that I sincerely hope are inaccurate smears.”

    If that is what they are, they will rebound against those who spread them.

    Anyone who has been at the highest level of Westminster politics for more than a decade, subjected all the srutiny and clearance that entails… has a ‘secret’ too horrible to mention, and then runs for the most high profile position possible… it doesn’t seem credible to me.

  44. Woodsman – I was at the Movement for Change event at conference. DM wasn’t at anything he didn’t have to be- the cameras were in his face every second. Jim Murphy spoke for him actually.

    The idea behind M4C is to succeed. However small the success, you are trained to “close” the deal.

    Ed M came half way through and after the usual guff went to leave. M4C rallies are chaired and run by the activists and an activist was closing the meeting as Ed went to leave.

    He called “Mr Miliband. Mr Miliband. (crooked his finger) Come back! I haven’t finished with you”. Ed paused, looked uncertain and hovered by the door.

    The activist finished his speech and Ed had to stay. The activist then made him commit to carrying forward a meeting with M4C within 2 weeks.

    He agreed. Are you all beginning to see why I LOVE this concept? :)

  45. @ Old Nat

    I do not wish to prejudge – or make sweeping judgements about the Labour Party before the evidence is presented.

    I do believe it possible that certain individuals used the particular set of circumstances surrounding ‘the war on terror’ as an opportunity to do things without being accountable to Party &/or country.

    I think it is reasonable for a person to await the evidence & make as informed a judgement as is possible with the benefit of whatever actual evidence is presented. 8-)

  46. @ Sue

    So how does M4C differ from project gameplan?

  47. Thanks Sue.

    That’s a great story. Very heartening.

    Great that it’s basically down to the individuals. And I can see why DM fought shy at that time….. I am also interested to see if he does take up the baton again.

    And it’s a shame you’re not up for a shadow cabinet position yourself. But then you’re probably better employed where you are and leading from the grassroots. ;-)

  48. @ Eoin

    On tactical voting there is this post by Anthony in November

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2359

    In it he says that “a fair chunk of people don’t know whether or not their seat is a marginal. In the 2008 PoliticsHome marginal poll 20% of people didn’t know which parties were in a position to win their seat. Only 34% of people in Con v Lab marginals correctly identified their seat as such, 45% of people in Con vs LD seats did, 29% of people in Lab vs LD seats. A fair chunk of Lib Dem campaigning especially consists of positioning themselves as the party best placed to defeat the incumbent, so saying in the question itself that the Conservatives are best placed to beat Labour risks overestimating the level of anti-Labour tactical voting. The 2009 PoliticsHome poll of marginals showed no obvious sign of tactical voting harming Labour in Lab v Con seats.”

  49. One aspect of 750,000 less public sector jobs which I’ve just alighted on is as follows:

    1. assume 500,000 of the 750,000 tend to vote Labour
    2. Osborne thinks they will get jobs in a resurgent private sector.
    3. Most of the 500,000 previous Labour voters are so entranced by the rewards of the private sector that they now tend to vote Tory.

    The main flaw in this cunning plan is of course the fact that it is very unlikely the private sector will actually take up this slack!

  50. Apologies about the last post but my keyboard is playing up!

    Should have been:

    On tactical voting there is this post by Anthony in November

    h ttp://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2359

    In it he says that “a fair chunk of people don’t know whether or not their seat is a marginal. In the 2008 PoliticsHome marginal poll 20% of people didn’t know which parties were in a position to win their seat. Only 34% of people in Con v Lab marginals correctly identified their seat as such, 45% of people in Con vs LD seats did, 29% of people in Lab vs LD seats. A fair chunk of Lib Dem campaigning especially consists of positioning themselves as the party best placed to defeat the incumbent, so saying in the question itself that the Conservatives are best placed to beat Labour risks overestimating the level of anti-Labour tactical voting. The 2009 PoliticsHome poll of marginals showed no obvious sign of tactical voting harming Labour in Lab v Con seats.”

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