ICM Voting Intention

ICM’s monthly voting intention figures are out – these are from the same poll that was reported on Tuesday buit have been held back two days for some reason. The topline figures with changes from the last ICM poll in the Sunday Telegraph are CON 39% (+3), LAB 35% (nc), LDEM 17%(-1). The vote changes referred to in the Guardian, incidentally, are drawn from comparisons with the last ICM poll in the Guardian, slightly earlier than their Sunday Telegraph poll.

Whereas once the four main polling companies used to have their polls spread out nicely across the month, they seem to have all grouped in the first and last weeks of the month, meaning that this poll is actually the first measure of voting intentions we’ve had since Populus at the start of the month, before the trouble in Lebanon, the arrest of Lord Levy and David Cameron’s “hug-a-hoodie” speech. The re-appearance of the loans for peerages issue and the effect of their stance on Israel do not appear to have damaged support for Labour (or in the case of Lebanon, at least not yet). The Conservatives appear to have gained support, possibly as a result of falling support for “others”, who appear to have dipped below 10% again.

The level of Lib Dem support is the lowest for over four years in an ICM poll, despite the fact that Ming Campbell’s own ratings did appear to be rising. A foreign affairs crisis is seen by many as an opportunity for Campbell, who is considered an expert on foreign policy, to shine – but yet the Lib Dems are down to 17%. I had thought that the figures in the ICM poll last month, which showed the Liberal Democrats on a lower level of support than during their leadership crisis in January, was likely to be a blip – it simply seemed unlikely that they would be in worse position now than when they were leaderless and embroiled in sex scandals and infighting – this poll however does support ICM’s findings last month.

Without any other recent polls with which to compare trends it unwise to read too much into a single poll – YouGov’s monthly poll should be out on Friday and will allow us to see if there are similar trends there.

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