ICM have a new poll out in tomorrow’s Guardian showing Labour in the lead. Topline figures, with changes from ICM’s last poll a month ago, are CON 35%(-2), LAB 37%(nc), LDEM 18%(nc). The poll was conducted directly after Ed Miliband’s conference speech, on Tuesday and Wednesday.

This is the lowest any poll from any company has put the Conservatives since the general election, though that’s probably connected to the high Liberal Democrat score. There is a significant spread in Lib Dem support across different pollsters – YouGov tend to show them between 12-14%, the most recent polls from Populus, MORI and ComRes all had the Lib Dems at 14-15%, ICM have them steady up at 18%.

In other findings, concerns about the spending cuts continue to creep upwards 43% said they thought cuts had gone too far as opposed to 37% who think the balance is about right, slightly less supportive since than in July. However, the coalition continues to be trusted more on the economy than Labour – 50% think they are best to ensure a prosperous future compared to 31% for Labour.

On Ed Miliband, 28% think he will move the Labour party to the left, 41% think he will keep it in the centre and 8% think he will move it rightwards.

A final intriguing point was ICM’s question on what people would like to happen at the next election. The overall picture was that 40% wanted a Conservative led government (19% on their own, 21% with the Lib Dems), 39% a Labour led government (26% on their own, 13% with the Lib Dems). The interesting bit was that amongst Conservative voters only 50% wanted the Conservatives on their own, 41% prefered a Con-LD coalition. In contrast, when YouGov have asked the same question they have found 72% of Conservatives would prefer the party to rule alone, 25% prefer the Con-LD coalition.


317 Responses to “ICM/Guardian – 35/37/18”

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  1. htt p://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/oct/01/twitter-benefit-cheat-nadine-dorries

    Good lord, I advise any sane Blue on here to start a campaign to get this woman out PDQ

  2. Sue

    There’s also a reply from the person that Dorries attacked here:

    ht tp://liberalconspiracy.org/2010/10/01/why-nadine-dorries-is-better-off-not-blogging-or-tweeting/

    Personally I think Dorries provides hours of endless amusement and should in no way be discouraged or believed

  3. Valerie

    “Whereas I feel blues have a sense of entitlement and feel they deserve what ever good things have come their way. They differentiate between the deserving and undeserving have-nots. I think “there but for fortune go you or I”

    Maybe I’m wrong.”

    Yeah….maybe Valerie….it’s worth considering certainly.

    ;-) ;-) ;-)

  4. Roger – Unless you’re disabled and have finally found a life in cyberspace otherwise denied to you.

    This goes WAY beyond funny imo

  5. Sue

    “Good lord, I advise any sane Blue on here to start a campaign to get this woman out PDQ”

    Conscious of your remarks upthread about never trying to agree with you-I am very happy to say this issue has changed my mind about ND.

    She is a loose cannon-with a mouth bigger than her brain.

  6. Thank you Colin – And I did laugh at your post ;)

  7. Let her speak out. Nadine Dorries is a gift to Labour.

  8. Nadine Dorries is an anagram of Inane Disorder.
    I’m not being partisan. I just like word games. ;)

  9. A couple of month ago I said:

    We should never underestimate to capacity of the Labour Party establishment for pointless internecine squabbling.

    and got it in the neck. Can that establishment, and its supporters on here, please stop trying to prove me right? I can see why the Conservatives and those members of the media addicted to the soap opera view of politics might encourage this behaviour; but the rest of us, whether in the the Labour Party or not, just find it hysteria-filled, puzzling and petty, like a particularly dull Hollyoaks storyline.

    One side seems to believe that the Labour Party has been hidden away for the last 16 years and somehow magically recovered – oddly many of these people had been around for the past 16 years without noticing it was missing. The other side believes that only by performing the sacred rituals of New Labour with not “an inch” of deviation can elections be won – though for what purpose is less sure.

    I’m sure that “ordinary working class voters” are grateful to be told what “their priorities, interests and needs” are; though their Union leaders may be confused by being described as members of “the liberal metropolitan elite”. If you don’t mind though, the rest of us will just keep an eye on the social class breakdowns in the poll tables.

    I find there is usually a very open and considerate atmosphere on UKPR. Even Roland at his most disgusted-Colonel-Tumbridge-Wells is probably winding someone up (and is still a hundred times politer than anyone commenting at Guido Fawkes) and no one here on the left is anything like the spewers-out of abuse you get on other sites. This is partly because Captain Wells runs a very tight ship and, with discussions originating in opinion polls, we tend to feel we should justify our assertions with facts. But it’s also because we have discovered that we learn a lot, in terms of both information and opinion, from others here with different political viewpoints.

    It would be nice if the Labour Party could forget its “narcissism of small differences” and look forward instead of back.

  10. @ROGER MEXICO
    You’re not seriously suggesting the Tories and the LDs never have pointless internecine squabbling?
    Most of the time, politics is pointless internecine squabbling, is it not?

  11. “It would be nice if the Labour Party could forget its “narcissism of small differences” and look forward instead of back.”

    Oh I don’t know-I quite enjoy it actually.

    And anyway it’s all part of the political difference which is bound to surface here. Why should internal difference be unwelcome-just because it’s Labour’s?

    It makes all those coded signals from Labour politicians just a little bit more meaningful to an old Con supporter like me.

    And most of the exchanges are in good spirit……..well most of them ;-)

  12. @ Roger

    I do feel that the Labour Party went somewhat missing under Blair. I did notice it going and let my membership expire. I kept only a passing interest in politics. I did not vote Labour in 2001 or 2005 GE and felt disenfranchised. I started to regain my interest once GB came leader. I hope to see the full re-emergence of the Labour Party, with a radical economic policy that will tackle the effects of rampant unchecked Capitalism.

    I am not convinced yet by EdM i see him as coming from the liberal elite, I have a profound distrust of liberalism, yet hope that under him with input from Balls and Burnham in particular the party can set fair on a radical course. I do not believe we are squabbling over petty differences but over fundamentals.

    I would supprt PR because then i could see two parties occupying the ground covered by Labour, one that is genuinely left wing and one that can cling to the centre ground like a comfort blenket.

    I do not really hold out much hope that either party will match my mix of economic socialism and generally conservative social ideas, but I reckon there is quite a lot of the working class who would. I supported AndyB because i believe he was the closest.

  13. Julian Gilbert

    You’re on form tonight. :-)

  14. @ Colin

    It’s nice to see you checked my assertion that the majority of UK debt was owned by UK banks, financial institutions & pension funds (on a thread a few days ago).

    On QE, GO is considering another tranche of this.

    GB had almost no choice because the collapse of the financial sector required an almost instant reaction. What crisis is forcing GO to consider such a course?

    Please do not unthinkingly accept GO’s stated reason for further QE come the day – if he & Mervyn decide to go ahead with it. There is more to this than meets the eye! 8-)

  15. Differences at all levels and in all matters are to be wholeheartedly welcomed. It is when an intolerance towards difference surfaces, that I tend to have a quibble. As for right and wrong- there is no such thing on practically anything. It is all grey matter… Semiotics and the inhibitations of the conscious mind mean that most of these differences are never articulated very well, nor understood very well, nor tolerated very well. It is a sad affair really.

    My son’s school photo arrived home today. 19 dudes in his class. A italian, three poles, a cezch, a chinese, seven girls, two twins, one very obviously gay kid.

    when i went to school my p5 class had 32 catholic boys in it all working class and all from Newry or a 1km radius around it. To add to matters, my son taught me to count from 1 to 10 in spanish today. Difference is increasingly all around us and it is a wonderful thing.

    how in the name of my God a crew on UKPR struggle so badly to tolerate difference of opinion among people in the own party who the agree with on 95% of other matters.

    Today I was called so many names today most of them unprovoked. At one point I was a trannie, another a marxist cadre. and yet, if you read back over my posts they are a picture of politeness. I do wonder sometimes? Ironically, they all came from supporters of the same party as me….. :(

  16. Amber

    “Please do not unthinkingly accept GO’s stated reason for further QE come the day ”

    OK-I’ll think about it then ;-)

  17. Anthony , there has been a Yougov/ITV Welsh Assembly VI poll this week which you have not referred to .

  18. @ Colin

    :-)

  19. Wow
    This Dorries seems good. She thinks embryio research will produce a humanzee!

  20. Eoin

    “if you read back over my posts they are a picture of politeness.”

    This isn’t going to do you any favours whatsoever-but you’re getting it anyway.

    Carry on being polite -I can’t do “turn the other cheek”-but you do it well-and it is disarming.

    Carry on engaging with opposing views-it makes Cons who don’t mind who they talk to ,feel welcome here.

    On a personal level-I find it easier to understand left wing thinking when it comes from the heart & personal experience , rather than the partisan tract, and party line.-so thanks for that too.

    nil carborundum

  21. Eoin
    Don’t worry
    I have taught in schools where nearly everyone is related!

  22. Colin,

    Thanks for that- the technical term is dialectic- or sophistry it was first popularised as a mode of dialogue by Plato and Socrates… but it brings you closer to understanding people and matters…

    Barney,

    :)

  23. Eoin Clarke

    Cheer up,you could be a tory on this forum,or even worse,a real tory,satan’s spawn don’t you know,us tories more of the UKIP variety are akin to the anti-christ it seems.

    P.S one very obviously gay kid

    how do you now did he have a pink handbag? :)

  24. @ Eoin

    Understand where you are coming from, some of the most intolerant people I have met have been liberal lefties. It is where my distrust of liberalism springs from.

    @ Barney

    In my first school, i had an uncle and his nephew in the same class, and one lad whose mum had left his dad to go and live with his aunt. You would keep a pupil behind and another one would spring up challenging you as to why you were punishing there cousin, you never knew they were related.

  25. I meant to go and live with his uncle

  26. Graham BC

    One of the many ways in which this world is better than the one of my youth, is that your first statement would have been quite unexceptionable.

  27. Graham,

    ta for that. Yes, I witnessed your mauling for your views. But thank you- its appreciated.

    Richard,

    I’ll leave it to your imagination, probably more interesting that way… :P

  28. Just another random question…

    Could someone with the requisite knowledge, please explain why a bunch of Highlanders and Scottish Rural Islanders have such a strong of Liberal Tradition, that seems unconnected to ‘Regular’ Liberals?

    I would really appreciate a potted history…

  29. Well, Orkney and Shetland tried having a Tory MP in 1835, and again in 1935. Such bad experiences that they probably won’t try repeating the experiment in 2035. :-)

  30. amber

    i belive that QE has a devaluation effect, it is after all a subtle form of printing money

    i find it interesting that devaluations have become blue orthodoxy since black wed

    before that devaluation was the worst possible crime, often committed by red govts

    any how devaluation won’t work cos every other bugger is doing it as well. any one fancy a race to the bottom?

  31. I’m sometimes rather surprised by the strong feelings Eoin seems to provoke in some of the reds here.
    Strange.
    Maybe being polite to everyone seems to get some people’s goat?

  32. @Valerie

    “… I think it is really important to be prepared to change one’s mind – I applaud you for it. :-)

    However I don’t think Colin shares this view. I cannot recall him posting anything that would portray reds, public sector employees or trades unions in a positive light. Not even a glimmer!”

    :-) :-) :-)

  33. i think we should burn heretics at the stake, all of them

  34. Na h-Eileanan an Iar were Liberal to 1935, then Labour till 1970, then SNP, then Labour, then SNP. The LDs do better than the Tories with 7.5% of the vote against the Tories 4.4% last time.

    Argyll & Bute is a 4 way marginal : LD at Westminster & SNP at Holyrood

    There are three constituencies covering the Highlands – all LD.

    I suspect that it has a lot to do with many people not wanting to support parties which seem “alien” – ie Tories and doubts about domination by the Central Belt. Labour and the SNP are both strong in the Eastern Highlands.

  35. @Julian Gilbert

    I think the tendency of some posters toward pomposity combined with a compulsion to be inconsistently contrarian can be rather tiresome ; yes I agree. Also the occasional Joan-of-Arc routine when it’s all gone a bit pear-shaped and rebounded: a good example of that earlier on this evening.

    More so- and here is the clincher for me personally if you were posing the question seriously and not rhetorically- it is perfectly possible for a person to be excruciatingly impolite whilst using polite phraseology. Though, of course, its fundamentally dishonest (if you want to make a harsh point then make it harshly instead of trying to camouflage yourself).

    Particularly when posters may then deny that they are being anything other than ‘tolerant and inclusive’. A simple deconstruction of the meaning of the words often suggest the opposite. It may be thought of as clever and sophisticated to some but to me it is simply disingenuous.

    Alsjeblieft!

    @Roger M

    You’ll find that JC is extremely popular amongst his constituents who are mainly- I am so very sorry to say- ordinary working class voters.

    An end to internal political disagreements? I think you are howling at the wind TBH- whether you are referring to Labour internal disagreements ending or those within any other political party.

    Of course discord, dissent and debate are the meat and drink of politics: both within and between parties :-)

  36. richard in norway

    “i think we should burn heretics at the stake, all of them”

    No point in wasting energy. Grill some steaks at the same time.

  37. Garry K
    The reason is quite simply the crofting acts which transformed life in these areas. The Liberals passed acts giving very poor peasants rights over land they rented but did not own. The hearings held across the Highlands and Islands in the lead up provide vivid testimony.
    The crofting acts also had some link to religion with the Free Church providing strong support for anti-landlordism.
    The split in the liberals over Coalition with the Tories did leave some national Liberals effectively Conservatives and in some places this led to Labour breakthrough. In the Western Isles (the Outer Hebrides) Labour won in 1945 and in Caithness and Sutherland in 1964 (the MP, McLennan defected to the SDP)
    The forthcoming Scottish Parliamentary Elections will be interesting across the area with all four parties having a part to play. In the constituency section of this site there is a poster called stornowaytory which is a bit of a joke since there is probably nowhere in GB where their are fewer Tory voters with a lost deposit last time.

  38. Old Nat
    Sorry
    Had not sen your post

  39. barney crockett

    Nae probs. I totally agree with your assessment.

  40. Garry k
    I don’t know if I posted this already but I see from the leadership resuls that I have been a member of two of the three smalest constiuency parties in the uk; Orkney and Shetland and Moray. I deny it was all my fault!

  41. old nat

    burn you heretic

    meat is murder

    only properly approved veggie burgers will be grilled at your bonfire

  42. Barney

    And I saw from the leadership results that I used to be a member of the largest CLP in Scotland – though also the one with the most apathetic membership! :-)

  43. @Eoin @9.17pm

    “At one point I was a trannie…”

    I actually wrote: “Are you a political trannie? You know, undergoing a change to become a bluey?”

    It was meant to be lighthearted.

    ;-)

  44. It’s funny Eoin – Mike N’s “trannie” comment was most obviously a joke (and a very funny one too)

    You have posted several times how

    “Differences at all levels and in all matters are to be wholeheartedly welcomed.”

    Yet when a poster on here disagrees with you, you cry foul and call it name calling.

    You say “It is when an intolerance towards difference surfaces” that you quibble, yet you have intolerances too (David Miliband, Tony Blair) and can be vitriolic about them, just like the rest of us.

    If you support a blue point of view (as a self proclaimed red) then that is admirable IF it isn’t contradictory to other posts you may have made in the past. Otherwise, it will inevitably seem a little “odd”.

    Some posters are certainly er, robust, shall we say in response to you, but that is their style to all posters and if it isn’t moderated, I guess it must be acceptable.

    None of us are perfect and if a post receives 5 or 6 heated responses, it is probably wise not to simply conclude they are “tribal” but accept we were probably a little provocative.

    Again, this is not “name calling”, simply an attempt to engage with your post, in which you obviously feel rather hard done by.

    You have called posters names too – “grumpy old man” comes to mind, yet accuse others of “throwing their toys out of the pram” if they don’t like your point of view.

    Perhaps it has nothing at all to do with “which side you’re on” (politically) but an attempt to make debating fair whichever “side” you support. If you gnaw away at certain bones, in the end you will provoke response. If that is the style of posting you favour, then yes, obviously you will get lively responses.

    None of that means you are being victimised, simply that others hold different views.

  45. Eoin – Oh yes, and I asked you a while ago (but you didn’t respond). With reference to my little test:

    Psychic?
    Stalked?
    or
    Hacked?

    Those who agree your posts are a “picture of politeness” might be interested in the answer?

  46. @Eoin – I can’t let your assertion go that the RoI’s 10% corporation tax rate was a great piece of financial management.

    There is no one (that is no one) in the world of economics, who is now trying to argue the Irish got it right on the economy. Clearly, they undertaxed business, but were protected by being in the Euro – their currency couldn’t rise to act as a brake on internal investment and economic overheating. The pressure outlet was an inflationary economy, built on too rapid growth and consequent dangerous credit.

    Now it’s gone bust, being in the Euro is equally harmful – they cannot devalue to regain competitive advantage and begin to grow their way out of trouble.

    I suspect if you now ask any Irishman or woman whether they would have preferred higher corporation tax, slower inward investment, and less of an inflationary bust, they would almost certainly say yes. I would imagine there is a fair degree of embarrassment about the ‘celtic tiger’ notion now.

    As for blaming Northern Ireland’s economic woes on the corporation tax differential with the south – you probably know that there was a small issue of a 30 year terror war that was a smidgeon off putting to industrialists. It’s not exactly a comparable example.

    The whole idea of Laffer Curves and low tax competition between governments is a bit of right wing nonsense that has largely been disproved by good quality research. It’s an ideological position that has led to disaster several times in the past. Ireland is just the latest example of an ideology that fails on a regular basis. It’s as bad as overtaxing.

  47. @Rob Sheffiled “I think the tendency of some posters toward pomposity combined with a compulsion to be inconsistently contrarian can be rather tiresome ;”

    Fully agree. Especially when they are factually inaccurate.

  48. @ Mike N
    – – – undergoing a change to be blue – – –
    ————————–
    That would be a step too far for me, but I confess to being disillusioned with my lot in the local town hall. They are looking for savings and the payroll must be reduced. I have pointed out non-jobs which I know of from personal experience and met with instant resistance form local Labour politcians who seek only to protect their empires. Town hall NIMBYS. I am not the greateast fan of Eric Pickles but I believe he knows a thing or two about non-jobs and waste in town halls.

  49. @Julian Gilbert – “… being polite to everyone”

    On reflection, the above, taken together with the “juvenile and unimaginative” post upthread, make a strange juxtaposition. Water under the bridge.

    Almost as strange as the little anagram ‘inane disorder’ which is still affecting the balance of my mind. :)

  50. @Cozmo
    Whatever one’s political hue and view, most of us can find something reasonable in the arguments etc of those of others.

    I think you rightly refer to ‘self-interest’. I find it everywhere.

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