YouGov’s daily poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 41%, LAB 39%, LDEM 12%. Rather to my surprise there is no meaningful increase in Labour’s support from Ed Miliband’s first conference speech as leader. Once again, more stuff to come either later tonight or tomorrow morning.

UPDATE: I meant to update this last night or today but didn’t get the opportunity. The rest of the YouGov/Sun poll following Ed Miliband’s speech are here, and paint a rather mixed picture.

On one hand, the direct questions about the speech were all pretty positive – 36% think EM will change the party for the better, 35% that he won’t change it, 12% that he’ll make it worse, 53% believe that he is serious about reducing the deficit, 23% think he isn’t. 71% think he was right to criticise the last government and 56% that he was right to say the war in Iraq was wrong. The percentage thinking he will do a good job has also risen to 50%, from 43% before the speech.

But on the downside, he hasn’t managed to dispel the negatives he was clearly seeking to address in his speech – 32% think the unions will have too much influence (compared to 33% before the speech) and 45% think his election means the party has moved to the left (compared to 42% before the speech) – plus of course, the speech produced no obvious boost in voting intention.

Tonight we have not only the normal YouGov/Sun poll, but also an ICM poll for the Guardian.


225 Responses to “YouGov – No speech bounce for Ed – UPDATED”

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  1. Did anyone see Paxman last night with EdM,h(Paxman that is , was practically purring.

  2. the dems need to act quickly to take full advantage of the dr fox spat, something like ” loyal partners dismayed by splits in the other govt party, discipline is needed” only a lot more subtle. clegg must go after the soft blue vote

  3. Is this a different Wayne?he seems to have changed his political affiliation!

  4. Ann (in Wales),
    At last count I think all the major parties are represented by at least one ‘Wayne’.
    Although unlikely, If the political affiliation is not immediately obvious from the post, you can still differentiate by the level of hysteria….

  5. @ Wayne – “But we’re still in “hung parliament” territory, which means if there were to be an election now? No party would yet again get an overhaul majority.”

    Not necessarily. A general election is a very particular environment in countless different ways.

    In any case, there isn’t one and in all likelihood there won’t be one until 2015. What the polls might be saying then is anyone’s guess.

    My own guess re: the Lib Dems is that Clegg is playing the long game and is prepared to take hits now in the belief that Lib Dem voters will return, or new Lib Dem voters be won, over the course of this government’s term of office.

  6. @JAMES LUDLOW
    A couple of us were posting earlier debating a prearranged deal/joint effort betweeb the LDs and Cons at the next GE. On the other hand it might be just as simple as you say.

  7. Eoin

    “22% of LDs say that they think Ed M has moved the party to the left and also that it is a good thing. That is about 3% of their 12% – roughly a quarter of their membership.. 18% of LDs say that they think Ed M has move the Labour Party to the left and that it is a bad thing…. half of LDs don’t know (understandably you might think).”

    Nobody- least of all LD’s you would think- can possibly say today whether EdM has moved the party to the left or right of the Brown Labour position/ GE 2010 manifesto position.

    We can make an assessment of that question only once the detail of the new policy agenda is published over the next 3-6 months. Which (for what it’s worth at this early juncture) I predict will see some elements to the left of Brown and some elements neo-Blairite (on the latter particularly the localist/ choice agenda, the arms-length relationship with Unions and economic policy). The biggest ‘shift to the left’- at least while still in opposition- will be in foreign and defence policy.

    Tonight’s YG poll and any polls at the weekend are quite important to that crucial short term/ immediate judgement that the media engage in (if not Labour party activists). It will set the tone of the debate on EdM for some time to come.

    The newsnight focus group last night (from my home town- bellwether Bristol) of swing voters and new labour 2005-2010 deserters was extremely dire news for Labour. I recommend all reds on here go and watch it on iplayer if they missed it.

    H tt p://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b006mk25

  8. @ Ann (In Wales)

    “Paxman that is , was practically purring”

    Why?

  9. mike N

    because he has a new victim

  10. @Rob Sheffield,
    Why on earth are you encouraging us to watch that?I found it so depressing I turned it off.We are optimists remember!
    Ijust read quite an interesting comment,If David M was going to be so good at winning elections, why did he not
    win that one?

  11. @james ludlow

    “My own guess re: the Lib Dems is that Clegg is playing the long game and is prepared to take hits now in the belief that Lib Dem voters will return, or new Lib Dem voters be won, over the course of this government’s term of office.”

    ‘long game’?

    Ah- the Mr Micawber ‘strategy’: hoping for “something- anything- to turn up”.

    I am glad about that ;-)

  12. “because he has a new victim”

    Lol

  13. Rob S,

    Your post was an extrapolation of my (understandable you might think).

    I have remained consistent on Ed M for 5 months. I don’t get the guy- never have. I am very hopeful I might- one day.

  14. @Ann-in-cymru

    Because we need to know the lie of the land as it is!

    We have to convince those types of voters or we won’t even be the largest party in a hung parliament in 2013-2015.

    So we had better start listening to them.

    You can’t listen to someone if you walk away from them as they are speaking; or turn off the TV…….

    I already made your other point several days ago: EdM clearly has tactical political nous and steel that DavidM does not.

  15. @ Rob Sheffield – yes, basically exactly that. The fact is that opinion polls reflect current opinion but are not a means for current opinion to have significant real world impact. That’s what elections do, and the next general election is a long way off. So Clegg is no doubt hoping that, whatever the polls say right now, the situation in nearly 5 years’ time might be very different. And of course he’s right about that – in 5 years’ time, things may indeed be very different. Or they may not be. None of us really knows :)

  16. I think I would be purring if I was sitting next to Ed Milliband. I think he is rather attractive. :-)

  17. I once met Mr Paxman at the Bucks County Council Dump site at High Wycombe. He was charm personified. He had just returned from the USA after the election of George Walker Bush. Paxman made no secret that he thought Americans were mad. I told him I had just read his book, The English, and enjoyed it.
    I would say he is rather left wing in his personal politics, but I repeat charming when he wants to be.

  18. @ Ann

    I agree, watching focus groups at this stage is a pointless exercise in futility. As an activist, I’ll deal with any negativity on the doorstep – when/ if it happens. 8-)

  19. Anthony – you must be using the word ‘surprise’ in some other way than its dictionary meaning!

  20. What’s the story with YC possibly saying no to shadow chancellor because she’ll upset hubby?
    Not a great start, first DM, now this? Too much family complexity at the top of a party…

  21. Hooded,

    I very strongly doubt the veracity of that. The gender division of labour in the Balls-Cooper household is very evenly matched, He would be very happy for his wife to do the CofE role (shadow).

  22. I’d like to see if there is an age split in the effect of Ed Miliband’s speech on voting intentions.

    I posted on the previous thread about Ed Milband (I am not sure where this post has gone) saying that Miliband’s speech put my back up. Blair’s Government dragged to the last minute permitted by European law on outlawing age discrimination in employment. It affected me adversely and seriously, and the present pensions problems show how foolish a policy it was. Yet we have Miliband coming back to what sounds a new youth poilcy. I know that Labour are claiming that repeated references to a “New Generation” in Miliband’s speech refer to a new attitude rather than to chronological age, but that is not how I for one heard it emotionally.

    Ed Miliband, at 40, is well under the average age for voters – indeed most voters are older than all three major party leders now. The danger is that larger numbers of us, even those in middle age, will feel on the political shelf.

    Miliband’s speech appeared to me, as a viewer, to be an embarassment for older (in their fifties) politicians commenting on radio and television: it was an obvious ploy for interviewers to ask if they were part of the “New Generation”. And I thought I detected a good deal of Labour back pedalling on the “New generation” slogan.

    As the “New Generation” slogan was central to Miliband’s speech, if it went wrong it was a bad mistake. And more generally, the speech appears to have been a lost opportunity to get Labour’s leadership up and running on the front foot. they are playing catch up now, although of course the ConDem parties are quite likely to fall over looming economic high hurdles.

    The test of my observations is to analyse poll results over the next few days to see whether support for Labour drops, or increases less, amongst older voters than younger ones.

    It has been pointed out that the younger candidate usually wins political leadership contests. But there must be a limit: I don’t think there is going to be another Pitt the Younger style Prime Miinster aged 24 any time soon. Have we reached this limit? If I were a Tory or LibDem political spin doctor, and given Miliband’s lack of experience outside the politcal world as well as his age, I would be tempted to go for a “Wet behind the ears Labour” pejorative tag.

    It is a depressing (to am ageing bloke like me) fact that many women voters do seem to choose between parties on the bais of leader attractiveness. But perhaps Valerie and others can tell us if Ed Miiband has more sex appeal than Cameron or Clegg, who seem to have been chosen largely on similar grounds? And if things get tough economically, I am not sure that a handsome father figure (Alan Johnson?) might not have been better, or Labour should perhaps have gone for a USP with a woman leader.

  23. Eoin, it simply must be true, it’s in the ES! ;-)

    You may be right of course but she would have had more chance than him in the leadership contest, yet she opted not to enter? I remember it was discussed here at the time..

  24. A separate post to ask a separate question.

    We used to have a bookie friend who quoted odds on this site. I haven’t noticed his presence since the election.

    As a non-political beeting person, I haven’t looked up the matter up, but do the bookies quote odds on whether Ed Miliband will or will not ever be Prime Minister? And if so, have the odds on his becoming Prime Minister shortened or lengthened since his Conference leadership speech?

    Presumably the odds on MIliband becoming Prime Minister differ from those of Labour winning the next election in part because of questions as to who might be Prime Minister in another hung parliamen, in part because I suppose it is conceivable that the Labour might form office in the present parliament if the LibDems broke the ConDem coalition and in part because Labour might replace Ed Miliband before the next General Election if he fails as leader.

  25. Hooded,

    Is this the same ES that told us reds would be wiped out in London. I’d pay as much heed to them as Guido.

  26. Where will Ed put Alan Johnstone? Hmmm, I could ponder that one for an hour or two! 8-)

  27. Amber,

    Did you get a chance to read the AJ article I cited you? If you did, then I am sure you have an idea or two four ‘our alan’.

  28. A critical development will be who Ed names as shadow chancellor. There are plenty of bear traps on the deficit, and his new team will have to stick to the line carefully.

    What is the line? Simple. The deficit is mainly decreased tax revenues due to recession. To erode the bulk of it get the economy in growth thats strong and sustainable. The rest of the deficit can be got at over the next few years without having to sack 20,000 copper and eviscerating the army.

    The trick will be exposing the nature of the cuts as ideological. The Tories know that the deficit is just the cover. Loathe him or loath him, Ed Balls is the man for the job. In that he has an understanding of economics and [George Osborne] doesn’t.

  29. @ Sue from earlier there were a number of lefties on here not picking either Miliband, I do not understand how it became a two horse race, interesting article here on EdB and I still believe Andy B would have been the best electoral asset.

    ht tp://www.economist.com/node/17155718?story_id=17155718

    I think it is very hard to put a judgement on DMs exit, if his motives are what he says then it is a dood honourable move, if his exit is due to pique, disappointment or any other personal motive, then it is selfish. I don’t know and only those close to him do, so I won’t be making any judgements. What I do think is once again the whole role of the press stinks. The press are repressing political discussion in there continuous pursuit of soap opera, this effects all sides of the political divide. 50 years ago Charlie K probably could have survived as Lib Dem leader, Hague would not have had to put up with the intrusions into his personal life and the labour contest would not have come down to being about one family. Solutions well I do not have much, suggestions welcome.

  30. Just out of curiosity how is Harold Wilson regarded as a Labour leader now? A few years ago he was praised for winning three elections out of four but now seems to have been written out of Labour Party history.Why wasn’t he sacked in 1970 for losing the election?

  31. @ Graham. Re DM, the problem to me is that previously, presumably to boost his chances in the leadership election, he said categorically that he would stay on, yet the moment the result is announced he puts it about that he is minded to go. So like you I have little idea whether he means what he says, but the difficulty in forming a judgement is down to DM having prior form as an unreliable witness. And given such prior form, I’m inclined to be cynical and assume that in “recharging his batteries” he has no intention to leave politics but is just repositioning himself to reenter the fray in a few years’ time.

  32. Eoin,
    I’m only too aware of the ES’s leanings. (They don’t do their own polls as far as I am aware though)

    You skirted my point that she left the way open for him in the leader race, despite having a potentially stronger suit. It would have been ridiculous To have husband and wife going against each other of course (brother v brother was enough ‘family’ for one contest) but she deferred in that situation? Is that an ‘evenly matched gender division of labour’?

  33. ‘@Valerie,
    Yes,there is something that I think women like about him, this links to the point raised by Frederic,how do you define sex appeal?No easy answer,entirely subjective,all I do know is that Cameron has not got it!I wonder why Steve Bell portrays EDm as enormously fat when he is really quite slim?

  34. The tories must be laughing at what is being discussed in the EU Parliamnent at the moment.

    Deficit deniers to be punished with fines.

    Amusing that the only large pro-Eu party in the UK could go into future elections saying the EU is terrible & the tories laughing up their sleeves.

    The Germans are leading this call for ‘real’ sanctions against Eu states who don’t comply.

    3% deficit & 60% debt to GDP is actually tougher than the tories are planning.

    With 52% in favour of leaving the EU according to the latest poll,Labour may want to think very carefully before they are seen as becoming an anti EU party.

    Only labour & Obama think spending your grandchildrens future is now a good idea it seems.

  35. richard,

    what are they to punish growth deniers with? ;)

  36. Eoin Clarke

    I don’t know,but the Germans with the lowest unemployment in over 10yrs anounced today seem to have the evidence of balancing your budget.

    The independent 24th June.

    Merkel rejects Obama warnings that cuts will damage global recovery

    Germany has the continent’s largest austerity package, which will see up to €80bn worth of spending cuts imposed under a draconian savings programme agreed by Ms Merkel’s coalition government a fortnight ago.

    Lowest unemployment since the 1990’s fastest growth also,seems to be working for them.

  37. @ Richard

    As was mentiioned on a previous thread, everyone wants to reduce the deficit. Just the Irish situation gives strong evidence that the best way to do this is see economic growth not austerity.

    What about Alan Johnson as Foreign Secretary

  38. grahambc

    We are not akin to Ireland,Ireland is a small economy, that relies on its low Corporation Tax to spur economic growth.

    As for irelands current position,construction was 25% of GDP,that is why they are in the position they are in.

  39. Is it just me or did I remember Merkel spending to promote growth a few months ago – there was a big discussion about it on here I think.

    Presumably it worked (very rapidly it would seem), and now Germany are in the position of being able to cut their deficit?

  40. I believe that Labour will be strongest if they familiarise the country with TINA’s sister TIAnA; There is an alternative. Campaign on this. Balls for Chancellor.

  41. @ Richard

    Neither are we akin to Germany, who have always valued invest and have not ripped out the heart of the country’s manufacturing base for three decades.

  42. Gregor

    That would be spending a surplus,that they accumulated during the boom years,instead of spending it all.

    Also during the boom years thay rose VAT by 3% to balance their budget,only if we has had such foresight.

    But seeing as the German deficit never got above 5%,its apples & oranges,they knew how to run a economy.

    Brown was right,German output(due to being a export reliant country) fell more than our’s(just).They however went into the economic crisis with sound finances & came out strong.

  43. @GrahamBC,
    Does that stand for before christ?Only joking!yYes I agree with Ed Balls as chancellor,shadow of course.I have to say that I do not like him and there will be a lot of media
    angst but he has the experience.

  44. Slight diversion but this appealed. Demonstrates how many of the issues discussed here bypass the electorate….

    h ttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/mobile/uk-politics-11442445

  45. Like Frederic Stansfield, I think the “New Generation” rhetoric a mistake. It not only excludes a (growing) majority of the electorate, it also sounds like “New, New Labour”. What Ed Miliband wants to do is to create a necessary break with the past without rejecting it wholesale; I just don’t think this rather tired phrase does it – you can only be new once. Something along the lines of “reconnecting with Britain” which admits faults in the past without getting rid of it. I’m sure others on here can come up with better alternative.

    I don’t think Ed’s lack of non-political experience will be used against him however. neither of the other Party leaders have much more; Cameron doing PR for a TV company is hardly working down a mine is it?

    As far as the attractiveness of politicians to women goes, as I said last night:

    Firstly the two more “attractive” candidates in the Labour leadership, David M and Andy Burnham, actually did proportionately worse in the poll among women than the other three candidates did. I kept on pointing this out, but Amber, Sue, Eoin and Roland were all too obsessed with Mr Burnham’s lustrous lashes to take any notice.

    Secondly, have any of you actually seen David Cameron. With the best will in the world, he’s very odd-looking. It’s just that we’ve got used to how he looks. in fact he and Ed Miliband both have faces that look as if they were made up of perfectly acceptable features, all from different people. Clegg of course is so bland that cartoonists are taking a collection to hire a mafia hit-man.

    One little fact from the polls. Ed M’s election seems to have already boosted the support for AV among Labour supporters. If this continues (and to be honest, the polls have been so much all over the place the last couple of weeks, it’s been almost pointless commenting) and Tory support for AV stays constant at 25-30%, we could see Cameron defeated on this. Which might be a wiser move for Labour than “let’s vote against to spite the Lib Dems”.

  46. Fair enough. But it’s easy for Merkel to say “I think austerity is the way forward” when she already knows her country has coped with the recession. Like a rich man cutting his gardening allowance while telling the beggar “You really should be more austere you know, worked for me”.

  47. @ Frederic

    A very interesting take on things.

    ” “Wet behind the ears Labour” pejorative tag”………….No time for a novice ?

  48. Also another Labour mistake,immigration is also an economic matter

    The German population has actually declined for over 10yrs now,being one of the 5 oldest countries in the world,however there output due to technology has not declined it has risen.

    The argument that as a country ages you need to replace like for like workers with immigrants in a aging society is a also a huge mistake,technology means for every five or so jobs leaving the workforce you may only need 3 in the long term to do the same.

    We now have millions unemployed & perhaps will for decades to come,rising tension may well turn to race hate.

  49. PHIL

    “but is just repositioning himself to reenter the fray in a few years’ time.”

    I think so too-and who can blame him after being shafted by his little brother.

    Hos overt narrative-not getting in the way-works & is credible.

    “Recharging batteries on the backbenches” is also credible-I think he his much more the strategist to his brother’s tactitian.

    But the question remains-recharging them for what ?

    If EM screws up I think DM will put him self forward again.

  50. ICM Labour 37% unchanged Conservatives 35% – 2 LD 18% unchanged

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