YouGov’s daily poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 41%, LAB 39%, LDEM 12%. Rather to my surprise there is no meaningful increase in Labour’s support from Ed Miliband’s first conference speech as leader. Once again, more stuff to come either later tonight or tomorrow morning.

UPDATE: I meant to update this last night or today but didn’t get the opportunity. The rest of the YouGov/Sun poll following Ed Miliband’s speech are here, and paint a rather mixed picture.

On one hand, the direct questions about the speech were all pretty positive – 36% think EM will change the party for the better, 35% that he won’t change it, 12% that he’ll make it worse, 53% believe that he is serious about reducing the deficit, 23% think he isn’t. 71% think he was right to criticise the last government and 56% that he was right to say the war in Iraq was wrong. The percentage thinking he will do a good job has also risen to 50%, from 43% before the speech.

But on the downside, he hasn’t managed to dispel the negatives he was clearly seeking to address in his speech – 32% think the unions will have too much influence (compared to 33% before the speech) and 45% think his election means the party has moved to the left (compared to 42% before the speech) – plus of course, the speech produced no obvious boost in voting intention.

Tonight we have not only the normal YouGov/Sun poll, but also an ICM poll for the Guardian.


225 Responses to “YouGov – No speech bounce for Ed – UPDATED”

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  1. Rob S, good evening,
    Agreed, EB is one hell of a battler. I often wish we had as determined a scrapper on our side. He was never leadership material but in opposition you would be hard pressed to find someone better to launch at the coalition.
    Do you think he has the craft and guile though to be SCofE? And is the association with GB too easy a target? Open question….

  2. Pete B

    “EM looked like Beaker out of the Muppets, and he himself said that he’d been compared to Wallace.”

    Then he’s clearly a fool –

    http://media-cdn.tripadvisor.com/media/photo-s/01/0d/4f/c4/aberdeen-wallace-statue.jpg

    Where’s his sword?

  3. Lib Dems
    John Knox, wildly unsuccessful candidate for the Lib Dems in the recent Edinburgh by-election has blogged on Scottish Mercury about just how difficult it is to meet voters as a Lib Dem. Might be relevant to forthcoming elections

  4. Marjory – the Sun don’t ask the question, YouGov do, and clients don’t get any say at all in voting intention questions, pollsters have their established methods of doing it and do it the same way regardless of which client is commissioning it.

    For the record, the YouGov VI question is “If there were a general election held tomorrow, which party would you vote for”

  5. Barney C, the disappointment for his ‘hosts’ must be even more palpable with a name like that.
    Fallow ground for blues and yellows now.
    Which part of Edinburgh?

  6. Oldnat,
    Ah yes, wrong Wallace. On second thoughts though…..failed leader of a rebellion against the rightful ruler…..perhaps not so wrong?

    G’night all.

  7. @ Pete B

    I actually think Ed Miliband is better looking than David. David is kinda nerdy/dorky/geeky looking. Ed, not so much.

  8. Hooded Man

    You can read Knox’s article here

    h ttp://politics.caledonianmercury.com/2010/09/13/memoirs-and-confessions-of-a-just-not-elected-candidate/

  9. @ Rob Sheffield – You are right about the poster’s 7 claps for Ed Ball’s speech. I heard the whole speech and not only was he enthusiastically clapped but I also thought he was superb.

    Attractiveness is rather subjective, and I could never understand why Blair was rated attractive. I certainly didn’t know any women who thought he was … but men seemed to have a soft spot for him. I think Ed Miliband comes over as meaning what he says, which most people, who’ve actually heard him speak, seem to like. My guess/hope is that the public will react favourably when they actually see/hear what he has to say. In contrast David Miliband seemed to be rather evasive, and perhaps what people have come to expect politicians to be like …cf. the Newsnight panel.

    I think the ridiculous will he/won’t he generated by David Miliband’s lack of response to the media, has overshadowed Ed Miliband’s speech. Together with the media’s apparent belief that the eldest son has the right to be leader over the younger brother! The reality is that David and Ed’s political values are very different, and I don’t believe that that has been given fair treatment by the media. Hence the lack of bounce IMO.

  10. @ Pete B

    I’m sorry for posting twice. My internet has been working kinda funny. I saw clips of Ed and he looked very young and his presentation wasn’t very good. He looked unready and inexperienced. And he looked youthful but not in a positive way (It’s hard to imagine him as the Prime Minister). But to be honest, I kinda felt the same way whenever I saw David speak.

    Additionally, I think that Ed’s leadership quotient will go up or down based on how he handles his Cabinet selection and how he handles union demands.

  11. Old Nat, thanks for link.
    An interesting read.
    Libs can’t have ever had an earthly there though?
    He certainly does a good line in pathos….

  12. Old Nat,
    PS I’m retiring for the night but what’s your view of Stewart Hosie? My mother votes for him….Gordon Wilson was an acquaintance of my dad. Nat by blood and Labour by water so they’re always confused where the Tory boy came from :-)

  13. @ Pete B

    Anybody looks good when they are saying what you want to hear – & vice versa. With politicians, beauty is in the ear of the beholder. ;-)

  14. @ Pete B

    Except for Andy Burnham – he’d still look good, if he was a Tory! ;-)

  15. Bad News for Labour, they desperately needed that bounce.
    I expect that Cons will get a 3-5 point lead mid-their conference.

    Unless this turns out to be an outlier?

    If this isn’t I suspect we’ll be at around this lvl (i.e. con 41, Lab 39 & LD 12) until the spending review.

  16. Hooded Man

    What an appropriate moniker for a Scots Tory! :-)

    Hosie seems pretty honest – which is what you would expect from any politician who goes for election on the basis of what they believe, as opposed to any expectation of the benefits of government.

    I remain totally cynical about politicians who rise to positions of power in any party that has expectations of government. That doesn’t apply to the SNP at present – although it doubtless will to some of those now seeing that as a potential career, and at a junior level in the party.

    I have long believed in the “boot” theory of politics. Regardless of their statements, politicians will end up protecting their own interests rather than those of their constituents. The only solution is to “boot” them out, so that the corrupt don’t know which party to join in order to promote their own interests.

    Labour in Scotland’s Central Belt have degenerated to that confused concatenation of politics, business, criminality – and above all profit.

    That is true of all “one-party states” everywhere, and the supposed political theory is irrelevant.

    I frequently suggest here that I have no understanding of loyalty to a politician (or group of politicians). Such Pavlovian responses simply encourage the corrupt to seize control of the governing group, and the party loyalists get screwed like everyone else – but willingly!

    I want to see increased Scottish autonomy. A model like Denmark seems appropriate, so I support the SNP as the best way to dismantle the British state. In an autonomous Scotland, I doubt that I would be voting for a party that all the chancers (from Tory, LD, and Labour) had flocked to.

  17. @ Amber

    Do you think Andy Burnham will run again for leadership if the opportunity presents itself?

  18. Now that the Godwin index has dropped to normal (Eoin, please remember that not everything the Christian Brothers taught you was bias-free ;) ) I’m tempted to dip my toes into the Milibrothers affair. I feel sorry for both of them, but especially David, who has now realised that every time he sneezes it will be taken as as criticism of his brother’s leadership.

    Hordes of political commentators will descend and decode the volume, direction and position of the sneeze; the colour of the tissue used; and what a “prominent” Labour backbencher’s cousin’s mother-in-law was overheard saying about it in the queue at Tescos. Acres of print and hours of analysis of the “sneeze crisis” will follow and Nick Robinson will make a definitive prediction that will prove wrong within the minute. Repeat two hours later.

    What does strike me in all this is the importance of, and absence of discussion about, personal life. There seems to be this entire generation in all three of the political parties who have been political obsessives since teenage years and, because of the growth of political infrastructure (SpAds, think tanks, lobbyists) in the last 30 years, have spent their lives in it. I’ve complained often enough (and not alone) on here about the resultant disconnect the Westminster bubble, they and the media live in, has from the rest of us. But it’s struck me that it works two ways.

    I can’t help wondering if this political class is having a sort of slow, collective mid-life crisis. When one of favoured ones comes up against some sort of set-back, often not career destroying, they suddenly seem to wake up and discover that their life is meaningless. Hence James Purnell dropping out of politics; David Laws not wanting to go back into the Cabinet; Ruth Kelly suddenly giving up.

    And now David Miliband. Even if he retired to a Trappist monastery in Antarctica, every eyebrow movement would be monitored. Usually by “journalists”, who look down from a great height on their tabloid equivalents, who treat the stars of soap operas in exactly the same way. I can’t help remembering to look of relief on his face just before the leadership election result was announced. Maybe he just wants to stand back from the perpetually adolescent world of political rivalry for a bit and do some living.

  19. @SoCalLiberal

    Do you think Andy Burnham will run again for leadership if the opportunity presents itself?
    ————————————————-
    Definitely. But I doubt it will happen. I think that the Coalition will go the 5 years & then Labour will be in government for 5 years so not much chance for him to stand for leader again. 8-)

  20. Oh, a quick word on the attractiveness of politicians. Firstly the two more “attractive” candidates in the Labour leadership, David M and Andy Burnham, actually did proportionately worse in the poll among women than the other three candidates did. I kept on pointing this out, but Amber, Sue, Eoin and Roland were all too obsessed with Mr Burnham’s lustrous lashes to take any notice.

    Secondly, have any of you actually seen David Cameron. With the best will in the world, he’s very odd-looking. It’s just that we’ve got used to how he looks. in fact he and Ed Miliband both have faces that look as if they were made up of perfectly acceptable features, all from different people. Clegg of course is so bland that cartoonists are taking a collection to hire a mafia hit-man.

  21. @ Amber

    You never know. Maybe Cameron will win a bare majority at the next election, Burnham will become the leader and a few years later, Labour will win a smashing victory.

    Stranger things have occurred.

  22. Shadow Cabinet – 49 nominations; 19 get get voted through (including 6 women).

    I have a list of 10 men & 3 women who I reckon are definitely going to make the cut; so 3 + 3 places that will require some Kremlin watching, as Old Nat calls it. It will also be fascinating to see if Ed uses any of his leader’s picks. I’m thinking he won’t; I’m thinking he’ll go with the PLP’s selections in the interests of unity & democracy. 8-)

  23. I think the Liam Fox issue and the Defence cuts issue is going to have a major impact in the weeks and months ahead. I am a Conservative supporter and I am absolutely shocked at the thought of the kind of defence cuts being proposed. The armed forces were already struggling and any further cuts would have a highly detrimental impact on this country’s ability to defend itself. Liam Fox is right. The defence budget should be ring fenced. There are brave men and women fighting and dying for this country at this very moment. We owe it to them to ensure that they are properly funded and equipped. However, I’ve read in this mornings Daily Telegraph that Cameron and Osborne intend to force these cuts through regardless of Liam Fox’s intervention. If true, that would be absolutely appalling and a total dereliction of duty. This has happened once before – John Nott in 1982. If the Argentinians had waiting a year for the then defence cuts to kick in before invading the Falklands, they would have won because this country would not have been able to bring together a task force to retake the Islands. The HMS Invincible would have already been sold off to Australia and the HMS Hermes would have already scrapped. They were are only aircraft carriers left at the time. And here Cameron and Osborne are 30 years later repeating the same mistakes. If they press ahead with these disgraceful cuts, then the backlash within there own party will be many times worse than that faced by John Major and his Eurosceptics (which I would remind you led ultimately to the creation of UKIP – who at the May 2010 Election, succeeded in denying Cameon of a majority). I for one will certainly be working against the Conservatives if these defence cuts proceed – for the first time in my life, even if that means getting Ed the Red elected. I may be a Conservative, but I will never vote for anybody who puts the security of this country at risk simply for the sake of short terms penny pinching. As the phrase goes, penny wise pound foolish. If Argentina had waited a year, they would have the Falklands today. If Cameron and Osborne leave this country without aircraft carriers, there will be no stopping Argentina next time around. They will know that all they would have to do is take the Falklands with overwelming force, because without aircraft carriers, we will not be able to take them back for a second time. I use this example just by way of illustrating the point that in international affairs, as the Thatcher Government almost found out to its cost, you never know what’s around the corner. And if the country no long has the ability to fight back, god help it.

  24. @ Amber

    Do you think Murphy will make it back to the Shadow Cabinet?

  25. @ SoCalLiberal

    Do you think Murphy will make it back to the Shadow Cabinet?
    —————————————————–
    I have him as one of my 10 men who I believe are certain to be in the shadow cabinet. 8-)

  26. I think – without checking there are 5 nominations for MPs who hold seats in Scotland.

    Jim Murphy
    Douglas Alexander
    Eric Joyce
    Ann McKetchin
    Tom Harris

    Jim & Douglas are on my list of chaps who’ll make the cut.
    Eric gave Gordon Brown a bit of bother; that might get him some protest votes, so we’ll see. I have a ? beside his name.
    Ann is a hard working MP but I doubt she has the profile to be amongst the final 6 women candidates.
    Tom was sacked from a ministerial post by GB. Fairly high profile leftie; but I doubt he’ll make it through.
    8-)

  27. I am perfectly happy and comfortable with the polling results at the moment.

    The moment of greatest significance this Parliament is the CSR, which could go 2 ways.

    Firstly, if the cuts are accepted by the public (begrudgingly), and the real effect isn’t the Armageddon that has been much trailed, along side a economic pick up pre-election, The Conservatives will be home and dry, regardless of how Labour perform. This scenario would see The Lib Dems cast aside by a Tory party that does need them any more.

    Secondly, if the cuts affect the quality of life of people seriously, then Ed will need to play a long game of responsible opposition, while creating an alternative Labour plan. This alone won’t win a majority I think, with major infighting in The Coalition required as well.

    For Labour to poll steadily at the upper 30’s now is perfectly okay.

    I don’t really see a scenario at this stage that is good for the Lib Dems though.

  28. The Liam Fox story is massive – no wonder he leaked his own letter. The Tories successfully attacked Labour over equipment in Afghanistan, and now plan on massively downsizing the military so Afghanistan would be impossible.

    Will be fascinating to see how Cam plays this. “It’s all Labours fault” won’t cut it.

  29. @JamesW – “I am a Conservative supporter and I am absolutely shocked at the thought of the kind of defence cuts being proposed”

    I have no idea why on earth you are so shocked. I posted on here several months ago a RUSI analysis suggesting 40,000 frontline troops would go under the proposed cuts and was roundly condemned as a leftie scaremongerer by most of the Tory posters here.

    If this shocks you, just wait until you see how many police will be laid off…..

    On the polls, I’m not really surprised there is no Labour bounce – thanks David. By dithering over his announcement, Milliband M has scuppered any chance of an effective kick off for Ed and his behaviour confirmed all that I disliked about him – a total lack of conviction and belief, replaced instead by naked calculation and personal political ambition.

    From around last Wednesday the reports suggested Ed was in front – he had three days to decide his options were he to lose. What he should have done is made an immediate announcement on the day and leave Ed to the task in hand. He couldn’t even bring himself to leave the stage in 24 or 48 hours after the vote. he had to string it out right the way to the deadline for shadow cabinet nominations. In my view, that’s pretty contemptible lack of respect for what’s good for your party.

  30. Interesting on the good lookers being elected front. No comment about the Clegg factor, wooing the voters who might have believed that it might have meant an Anti Tory vote. Yes, the polls were way out with expectations for the libs, but the voters were still fooled.

    So Cameron didn’t beat Brown despite the looks or no looks;
    we should remember, nobody won the election.

  31. @PeteB @ 11.24pm

    Good post..

    “…but someone pointed out that EM looked like Beaker out of the Muppets…”

    No. Danny Alexander looks like Beaker.

  32. On the polls, I’m not really surprised there is no Labour bounce – thanks David. By dithering over his announcement, Milliband M has scuppered any chance of an effective kick off for Ed and his behaviour confirmed all that I disliked about him – a total lack of conviction and belief, replaced instead by naked calculation and personal political ambition.

    I did have David as my 2nd choive, but like yourself, I see the way David has behaved to be entirely self-serving and against the interests of The Labour Party.

    Should Ed fail, and David be the last person on earth that could save Labour, I would still not vote for him again. For my money, he has made an irreversable decision by leaving the field now.

    I have no idea why on earth you are so shocked. I posted on here several months ago a RUSI analysis suggesting 40,000 frontline troops would go under the proposed cuts and was roundly condemned as a leftie scaremongerer by most of the Tory posters here.

    If this shocks you, just wait until you see how many police will be laid off…..

    It shows the general Pro-troy bias in the press, because if Labour had been making these cuts to the Police and Military, the right-wing press would be having fits and convulsions…

  33. @JamesW,

    Like you my main point of departure from current government thinking is over the defence budget. (My other is over prisons policy). I have mixed feelings about the leaking of the letter. On the one hand it is obviously very damaging politically for the Tories (although I am don’t entirely agree with Ian Bailey that there is no scope for blaming Labour). On the other hand I quite agree with Liam Fox and applaud him for making a stand. I accept that some cuts to the defence budget are inevitable but it is pretty much a rule of government that your country’s security is it’s overweening priority and that it can’t be allowed to wax and wane with the economic fortunes of the country.

    Of course any money that is left with the MoD will have to be found out of another department’s budget (although like most people here I don’t believe the government will actually meet it’s professed targets for overall cuts), so it’s not a simple “oh all right then, Defence is excused” option.

    In the long term I think our defence probably will need to be cut, but that needs to be done constructively not in a cost-saving excercise. It’s quite possible that cutting certain things now might generate additional costs in the future. A good rallying cry for the Tories would be that our forces will be the best we can afford, and that our engagement with foreign adventures will be limited to our capacity to supply forces with adequate equipment, training, pay and conditions.

  34. @Ale – “… contemptible lack of respect”

    I think it was more a case of realism about how press coverage would suck all the attention away from Ed’s speech if David had announced his retirement on Tuesday.

    Remember Ed’s team where briefing within minutes of victory about which shadow cabinet post David ‘had to’ accept. The first day or two would have been taken up exploring possibilities. It could be the case that it was Ed who effectively shut the door.

  35. *Alec*

  36. Garry, I agree with both of your posts. Right wing press or not, once the cuts take hold, the public will not need the ring wing press to keep them informed , or not. The effect upon their everyday lives will be obvious. They will realise it is not Labour to blame.

    when the public see this clearly, that will be reflected in the polls IMO.
    The question I ask, is.. Are the Libs going to realise or continue to toe the Tory line?
    P

  37. Garry, that is points, not posts I should have said

  38. Hooded man
    Never ask any snp supporter anything about the snp. They will never make any critical comment. You ask about Stewart Hosie, get an anodyne sentence then an extended diatribe on the evils of Labour and total corruption of their politicians.
    If you read posts on the Edinburgh by-election on the Edinburgh Evening News site you will get an accurate representation of the snp activist view. Worth looking at.
    I should say that I don’t know enough about Stewart Hosie to comment but Gordon Wilson was very orthodox right wing. He had to win a constituency which has a split between avery prosperous area and a much less prosperous part.
    On the by-election, the Liberals would have been in with a shout at another time with an electoral system made to measure for them. Amber will know better, but the area again is a mixed one.
    On the corruption of politicians (excluding of course the snp), it is worth remembering that the contenders in Liberton were fighting for the right to represent over 20000 constituents in a withering fire of local media for about £16000 pa. All parties find it difficult to get enough good candidates. I think it will be interesting to see how many in Scotland will want to stand down at the next local elections

  39. Alec,

    An interesting view and one taken through the prism of your own instincts about DM. Fair enough. I am largely ambivalent on DM – he seems a decent enough guy, and certainly an impressive politician. It is easy for us to knock his motives, indecisiveness but I challenge anyone in that position to do the right thing by everyone. Impossible.
    You suggest he should have departed immediately, Sore Loser… David Sulks….this would have dominated the remainder of the conference.
    I’m sure he wanted to take counsel from colleagues, not something he was in a position to do before the result…..”David Admits Defeat”

    Billy Bob is right, on balance he probably had to leave it until after Ed had spoken and the analysis/aftermath had run its course to give Ed maximum coverage, and in the end yesterday he certainly spoke with a good deal of humility and integrity from where I stood.

    He really was between rock and hard place, and many will be prepared to concede (forgive the pun) that he really just couldn’t win……

  40. “”I worry always about the effects of any decisions I make on my family because family comes first. ”

    Ed Miliband

    ;-) ;-) ;-) ;-)

  41. @Hooded Man

    I replied to a post from Ann (in Wales) at the end of the last thread. It could be the case that the embargo on David’ s announcement was coordinated by senior shadow cabinet colleagues.

  42. Billy Bob – thanks, even less reason for all those eager to criticise him then….

  43. Amber – I didn’t think the leader got any leaders picks anymore. Anyone confirm?

  44. Old Nat,
    Thanks for your response. I had not appreciated that your support for SNP extended only to the single (albeit central!) issue of Independence.

    Barney C,
    I wouldn’t take it personally, there was little distinction between all our parties!

    I do enjoy you two sparring. Have been down south for 20 years I have never lived in Scotland during a time when Labour and SNP were the two dominant parties, so have not experienced first-hand the “mutual appreciation” ;-)

  45. Next weeks polls will be interesting, in that if the Conservatives arguments about departmental spending cuts, are made public, their ratings could take a dip. Not sure whether Labour would gain from this, as they haven’t said what cuts they would make.

    If Labour want to take advantage from a very difficult Autumn for the coalition due to the spending reviews and cuts allocation, they are going to have to make sensible choices in regard to shadow cabinet positions. I am not sure having Ed Ball as shadow chancellor and Diane Abbot as shadow foreign secretary would go down well.

  46. SoCalLiberal – the Labour party do indeed have a system of getting rid of leaders. 20% of their MPs need to nominate someone else to trigger a leadership contest.

    (It is worth adding, however, that the Labour party do not have a tradition of giving leaders the boot, so I wouldn’t expect it to happen).

  47. R Huckle
    Abbot D will surely not be elected to anything. Her candidacy was disgraceful in that she had no credibilty as the far-left candidate which more properly would have been John McDonnel. She grabbed it using media hype and only got on the ballot paper because poor Milliband D signed it which he should not have done

    Hooded Man
    Thanks
    And here was me thinking I rose above it!

  48. To those of you who think the spending review will intsantly damage the Tories in the polls, dream on. The cuts have been the narrative all summer and they are already priced in.

    Similarly, exposure from the Labour leadership contest plus the LD collapse have already taken Labour as high as it can currently go in the polls, so no real surprise at the lack of an Ed speech bounce.

    The real contest takes place when the socio-economic effect of the cuts on the public is known so I don’t think there will be a meaningful indication re the next election for at least 2 years. But even then, there will be the huge question of whether the LibDems can recover at Labour’s expense, which would result in a Tory victory.

  49. @BARNEY CROCKETT
    Your earlier comment about the wee Lib Dem man in Edinburgh was interesting. It has occurred to me that with the exception of the past leaders, ANY LD in Scotland is on the ropes. Clearly, they are seen as limp wristed Tories everywhere these days, that need not be a massive problem in England or Wales, but Scotland, God help them.

  50. @Marchese
    “To those of you who think the spending review will intsantly damage the Tories in the polls, dream on. The cuts have been the narrative all summer and they are already priced in.”
    ————————-
    Quite the opposite, all we have had is words – words and more words. We will only know the real effect on polls when the real details emerge and people learn exactly whose necks are on the block. The current defence spending issue is a case in point. “We are all in this together” – err – well – maybe – but don’t cut things which matter to me “

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