YouGov’s daily poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 41%, LAB 39%, LDEM 12%. Rather to my surprise there is no meaningful increase in Labour’s support from Ed Miliband’s first conference speech as leader. Once again, more stuff to come either later tonight or tomorrow morning.

UPDATE: I meant to update this last night or today but didn’t get the opportunity. The rest of the YouGov/Sun poll following Ed Miliband’s speech are here, and paint a rather mixed picture.

On one hand, the direct questions about the speech were all pretty positive – 36% think EM will change the party for the better, 35% that he won’t change it, 12% that he’ll make it worse, 53% believe that he is serious about reducing the deficit, 23% think he isn’t. 71% think he was right to criticise the last government and 56% that he was right to say the war in Iraq was wrong. The percentage thinking he will do a good job has also risen to 50%, from 43% before the speech.

But on the downside, he hasn’t managed to dispel the negatives he was clearly seeking to address in his speech – 32% think the unions will have too much influence (compared to 33% before the speech) and 45% think his election means the party has moved to the left (compared to 42% before the speech) – plus of course, the speech produced no obvious boost in voting intention.

Tonight we have not only the normal YouGov/Sun poll, but also an ICM poll for the Guardian.


225 Responses to “YouGov – No speech bounce for Ed – UPDATED”

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  1. Definitely a shock. We could be in for 6 months to a year of nip and tuck between the reds and the blues.

  2. %s of 40%, 40%, and 39% are a bounce of sorts. It is just that vis a vis the blue score, it is not enough to put them ahead….

    the Cain and Abel show seems to be hurting red. I wonder if the Fox story will cancel some of that out tomorrow?

  3. Not a speech bounce though Eoin – I expected the Lab lead to peak today (or perhaps tomorrow) before the Conservatives’ own conference boost next week. Perhaps it’s just because becoming leader got him as much publicity as he was going to get – the speech couldn’t really trump it.

  4. But like the last one, it’s within the margin of error.

    Now that DM has left front line politics, there is a chance EM can concentrate on making a success out of leading the party – but I still have concerns about his ability to perform.

    It seems pretty certain, though, that Labour will make big gains in the locals – both next May and beyond – and will therefore start to rebuild its base in local government.

  5. Given the margin of error in these scores presumably it’s fair to say that the reds and the blues are effectively neck and neck.

  6. Perhaps it’s not so surprising given the agenda pursued relentlessly by the media since Saturday has been about ‘the pyscho-drama’ between the brothers…

    I for one am left unclear what sort of drama that is but its certainly an unedifying spectacle to watch…Treating anybody’s life as if it were an entertainment isn’t something I feel any of us should feel proud about. we complain about lack of good goverment and able people in politics but if this is the best we can do we’re lucky to have what we’ve got.

  7. Anthony,

    True.

    Yellows 15% took until Sunday (I think) to materialise although it had the whiff of an outlier. We’ll see.

    The exposure = poll lift is really taking a bit of a kicking these days.

  8. The reality fom these polls is surely that there is NO bounce at all from his speech let alone “any meaningful one”. Hasn’t the Labour share actually fallen since his speech.

  9. I am afraid I disagree with Anthony’s expectation of a ‘speech bounce’.

    I’m going to be boring & repeat what I said over the past couple of days:
    1. A David M win was ‘priced in’.
    2. Labour have got behind Ed M already, but the public have not.
    3. It was not a rousing speech. It could not be; it was an analysis of why New Labour lost the last election.
    4. The best we can hope for is open minds – which the YG polling shows – voters have to a surprising extent.

    I am happy to see the polls steady. I expect Cons to get a minimum of a 3 point bounce from their conference & go +5. Much more than 5, I will be concerned; less will be a pleasant surprise. 8-)

  10. Anthony,

    It’s a polling site, not poll prediction site!
    You also expect Labour to be in front as the cuts are announced!
    That’s why it appears so partisan when you make these comments.. Especially when what you want doesn’t happen. Best stick to analysing polls rather than trying to guess them. Leave thatto pros like me!

  11. I certainly didnt have the same feeling abour ed miliband’s sppech this week as i did about tony blair’s speech in 95′. But then again the circumstances are different.

  12. For conferences for as long as i have been following polls, the party in focus gets a bounce…

    Yellow hit 15%
    red hit 40%

    so it has once again happened here…

    I think with these daily polls it is best not to look at one in isolation. Lets look back on them in a weeks times (or so).

  13. Consider yourself told of Anthony ;-)

  14. DM’s indiscresion drowned out Ed’s speech. Plus the entire media seems to be very hostile towards Labour at the moment. Ed is doing well in the polls though.

  15. Was tapping this out earlier and it links to amber’s comments……

    ‘Anecdotal’ I know but my wife, her parents and sister are all committed Labour ‘lifers’. None were impressed by the Ed speech yesterday even though two of them firmly opted for him as leader. My wife actually said she regretted voting for him.
    I appreciate that Labour are rallying round the new leader and rightly so, but if it attracted such feelings from them then the country will take a lot longer to respond positively…

  16. on a different topic

    did anyone see the israeli foreign minister at the UN

  17. WAYNE – put a sock in it. You’re just making yourself look ridiculous. Anthony’s a Tory for goodness’ sake! He’s just trying to do his job.

  18. The lack of an upward bounce after Ed (Cain) became leader is not good news for the ‘Reds’ and good news for the Whigs/Tories.

    Except for post 1997 and 2001- and we have taken the Party off the leader who did well elecotrally- the Opposition Party has traditionally done well after a Conference.

    They have got their Party back off the New Labour WINNERS and they are very happy- in the trade union section, but not in the CLP’s and the PLP.

    Labour is well practised in vigorous opposition:
    1931-40, 1951-1964, 1970-74 and 1979-97.
    Eoin, I am more interested in pragmatism than ideology; I know that is an intellectual weakness- but even Bevan told us that Principles without power are useless- (though, of course ‘Nye’ helped to destroy ‘The Party’ 1951-1959.

  19. Barnaby

    Butt out grandad!

  20. Richard in Norway,
    I did, a quite ‘inspired’ dose of diplomatic buffoonery.
    After today’s thread though maybe best we don’t get into discussing the middle east peace process!

  21. Wasn’t Blair being paid a massive salary to be some sort of Middle East peace envoy? Is he involved in these talks? If not, can we have our money back?

  22. Maybe it’s because I’m a grandad too, but I found Wayne’s comment at 10.40 pm needlessly offensive.

  23. If only Labour had picked another leader…
    Well you can guess what might have happened if you look at Ian McWhirter’s blog. DM “borderline autistic” Balls “bumptious, over-promoted lacking emotional intelligence” I could go on.
    It was ever thus with the partial exception of Blair?
    Scotland?
    Lib Dem list has finished off long-terk msp from Glasgow, Bob Brown
    SNP list? Lots killed off including anyone suspected of softness towards Labour. Look out for shrill Sunday Times journo and Labour baiter, Joan McAlpine. We will find out about Labour later. Oh, that includes me on Monday. I take part in a hustings. Will there be grisly headlines? Only in Aberdeen

  24. hooded man

    agreed, just checking that i wasn’t dreaming

  25. Barney

    “SNP list? Lots killed off including anyone suspected of softness towards Labour.”

    I’m impressed that you know why SNP members voted as they did in ranking their list candidates. That’s more than I do.

    Or maybe, you actually know nothing, and are simply making a partisan point?

  26. As a grandad I’d like to say that Wayne is a good laugh, and occasionally says something interesting. It can get a bit earnest on here you know. :)

  27. Hardly a surprise really. He dumped on his brother, who has had the sense to go to the backbenches, as he knows that Ed will make a fist of everything & doesn’t want to be tarnished. David will bide his time, as his time will come again when he has to rescue a divided& beaten labour party after the 2015 election. Labour party diehards may kid themselves that he is wonderful but the general public do not like people who so visibly shaft friends & family.
    Prediction: Labour will not form a government again before 2025 if ever again.

  28. I think that, leaving aside the Cain and Abel,although it should really be Jacob and Esau,Ed is just not well known
    enough yet to have made any great impression on the public at large.He has five years to gain stature and I believe he will.There is also an incredibly hostile press at the moment.

  29. All you grandads clogging up the thread. Don’t you know it’s time for the New Generation?

  30. Pete B

    I’m not exactly “earnest” myself in many posts, but I do find suggestions that other posters adopt a Marty Feldman walk somewhat inappropriate.

  31. It is still very early days: but I think by next spring Labour need to be in a constant 3-6 point lead. Otherwise the pressure is going to build and that 1.35% win based solely on the TU college will boomerang back. Outside- of course- of what Jonny Cruddas called today the ‘liberal metropolitan elite’.

    On balance at the moment I think that when the detailed policy comes out- and (of course) the ConDem cuts bite- this constant lead scenario will most probably be the case.

    But a hugely awful snoozenight focus group of swing voters/ new labour deserters just now on BBC2. It backed up AW’s point that there has been absolutely no ‘Ed bounce’ as yet.

    It will be also interesting to see whether the 40-40 rough split remains next week i.e. will the Tories/ Cameron get a bounce or not themselves due to their conference taking place as well as formal set piece speeches by Cameron and the boy Osborne. The most major/ serious exposure they would have had since June.

    They could get a fillip: but contrarily the extra exposure on them and their plans and the words ‘cuts’; ‘austerity’ and (Liam Fox’s favourite) “draconian” could actually reduce their score.

    Interesting few weeks for polling ahead after the desert of the summer recess!

  32. Hooded Man

    There was a 77 year old at the Labour Conference claiming that she was part of the “New Generation”. :-)

  33. Old Nat,
    :-)
    and why not!
    Glenys was it?

  34. I think Ed is a very light lad and well be well advised – he’s going to give the coalition a run for its money (or lack of it) and at least today’s turn of events will see the other Ed in as Shadow |Chancellor.

    Ed Balls is going to have a very hostile press for a while from the normal suspects but along with his wife we can expect a forensically convincing approach which will gain at least grudging express.

  35. If E Miliband and D Cameron are leaders at the next election, Tories will win. Simple reason – my new theory of parties with most attractive leader winning. My memory goes back to the first ‘TV election’.

    1964 Wilson v Home. Avuncular Northerner beats skull-like Tory.
    1966-1974 Heath v Wilson. Nip and Tuck. Hard to believe now, but Heath was considered charismatic in his day.
    1979 Thatcher v Callaghan. First woman leader beats yet another old Labour fossil.
    1983 Thatcher v Foot. Foot’s Donkey Jacket at the Cenotaph plus mad professor manner put people off.
    1987 Thatcher v Kinnock. Woman beats Welsh windbag.
    1992 Major v Kinnock. Nice but boring man beats Welsh windbag.
    1997 Blair v Major. Charismatic young leader beats nice but boring man.
    2001Blair v Hague. Charismatic man beats bald Northerner.
    2005 Blair v Howard. Charismatic but damaged leader still beats vampire-like Tory
    2010 Brown v Cameron. Posh but normalish Tory beats weird damaged Scot.
    2015? E Miliband v Cameron. Posh but normalish Tory will beat weird Hampstead Marxist.

    Please note I have tried to be equally offensive to both parties.

  36. Perhaps they should put Kinnock in the cupboard and be talking more about the future – they might have managed more of a conference bounce if they had, but there may be more polls to give us the full picture up until around the weekend.

  37. Pete B

    I think you have it right!

  38. why on earth should there be an automatic bounce following conference, or the election of a new leader?
    The public don’t even kow who rEd is, let alone approve of him.

    For what it’s worth, he looks totally unelectable to me. A plummy Marxist? Come on.

  39. Pete B

    True. You have been particularly offensive geographically.

    Just what do you have against Hampstead?

  40. Tony Blair receives no salary for his role as a Middle East peace envoy.

  41. I can’t imagine Ed is delighted that a consequence of his victory is that Kinnock has been on constant media spool…..he wants to move on from the past, yet Neil (however supportive he his) is there at every turn..
    Someone needs to have a word……Kinnock might be seen as a ‘grandee’ by labour (is he? I don’t know) but the country aren’t likely to flock to it…..

    (in the background, Balls is no orator….)

  42. @ Pete B

    I actually think Ed is better looking than David who looks kinda geeky/nerdy/dorky. Ed may be labeled a geek too but he doesn’t really look it.

  43. It does not surprise me at all because basically I do not trust the Sun polling, not even when they put labour ahead. I would like to see what questions they ask. The Sun seem rabidly against Ed Miliband to the point of making themselves appear manic so it the fact that I cannot see what question they ask when asking their voting intention surveys makes me cynical!

    I will take more notice of when ICM and Ipsos Mori release their surveys.

  44. “Pete B

    I think you have it right!”

    See, now there’s an example of Wayne saying something interesting!

    Oldnat. Sorry, I forgot you were from Hampstead :) . Its problem of course is that it isn’t in the Midlands.

  45. Dreadful speech by Ed Balls at “Conference” – attacking the Thatcher government on manufacturing.
    He should look at how it has shrunk as a percentage of GDP since 1997. We need lower taxes on businesses and better technical education.

    The delegates had some sense – only 7 claps.

  46. @Social Liberal
    It’s true that there isn’t much to choose between the brothers, but someone pointed out that EM looked like Beaker out of the Muppets, and he himself said that he’d been compared to Wallace. This hadn’t struck me before but i can see it now. Add to that his strangely strangled vocal mannerism, and it isn’t all that attractive to voters.

  47. @Hooded Man

    “(in the background, Balls is no orator….)”

    Hhhmm- but as the phrase goes: “the man said it right”.

    Content spot on even if- like Heseltine- he is managing a stutter in his public speaking delivery.

    Many forensic points targeted right into the Cameron-Osborne-Gove bullseye.

    He’s a fighter and if all the shadow cabinet adopt that sort of spirit the Conservative poll numbers will decline.

  48. If my theory about attractiveness of leaders is true (see a few posts above), it doesn’t seem to matter what the manifesto is, or what the record in office is; it’s just leader attractiveness that wins.

    This may be a bit depressing for us political enthusiasts, so i’m hoping that someone will dispute my assessment. E.g. Am I missing something about Kinnock, or Hague, or various other losers?

  49. JJB

    “The delegates had some sense – only 7 claps.”/ “We need lower taxes on businesses”

    You must have had a Tory audio filter on your iPad- I heard cheers on that coverage 5 minutes ago along with copious applause. I challenge anyone to watch it again on iplayer and say any different ;-)

    Of course Ed Balls is right- we don’t want to go back to the TINA approach and abandon our manufacturing as the Conservatives did in the 1980’s/ as they suggested Labour do in 2008 and as they have done ever since May 2010.

    What government needs to do is support the business of business- not give tax breaks to senior management and shareholders.

  50. @Pete B

    “This may be a bit depressing for us political enthusiasts, so i’m hoping that someone will dispute my assessment.”

    You need not worry- I think the silence of many on this matter suggests widespread disagreement if not active engagement with your ‘thesis’ :-)

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