The rest of YouGov’s post-Miliband poll is in the Sun here, and should be up on the YouGov website shortly. On the whole it’s pretty positive for Miliband – albeit, in a “reserving judgement” sort of way.

43% think Miliband will do well as leader, compared to only 23% badly, 34% don’t know yet. 33% think trade unions will have too much influence over Labour under Ed Miliband, 29% disagree, and 38% don’t know yet. On YouGov’s regular tracker of leaders’ qualities Ed Miliband scores best on being in touch with ordinary people (23%) and sticking to what he believes in (17%), but unsurprisingly 44% don’t yet know enough about him to answer. On the whole, he is still an unknown quantity for the public.

Perhaps the most interesting question on there is whether people think the election of Miliband moved the party to the left. 42% think it has – this includes 35% of Labour supporters, but they overwhelmingly see this is a good thing. YouGov also asked if the description of “Red Ed” was justified – only 19% thought it was, 31% did not (and again, 51% didn’t know).

Meanwhile the Times front page was dominated by some Conservative party polling from the start of the September. Basically, Populus showed respondents two video clips of David and Ed Miliband and asked people to rate them on various attributes, with the conclusion that David Miliband came out far better than Ed… confirming, albeit in far more detail, previous polls that showed David was more attractive to the wider public than Ed. I suspect “leaked” in the paper may translate as “deliberately released on the day after Ed Miliband became leader to undermine him now it’s too late for Labour to pick the good one”.

UPDATE: Rubbish reporting of polls times – the New Statesman dismisses the Conservative party’s Populus poll because “Without more information about when precisely the poll was conducted, who the respondents were (party affiliation and so on), and whether responses were based purely on campaign videos, it is impossible to consider this a serious blow to Ed Miliband”. Sound words indeed that I would normally agree with… except 10 seconds research on Populus’s website would tell you it was a nationally representative poll conducted between the 3rd and 5th September, in fact the dates are even in the Times article (it doesn’t tell you whether any other stimulus was used beside campaign videos, but Populus would be obliged under BPC rules to tell any journalist who asked). At least make an effort, dammit.


512 Responses to “More polling on Ed Miliband”

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  1. Michael V,

    In that case: enjoy the link ;)

    h ttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-11423362

  2. Typical Populus, they always seem to do the most pointless polling :-P

  3. amber

    i saw this on CiF

    “We are the optimists and we will change Britain

    We are the daleks & we will destroy you (Tories).

    Sorry, Ed – I couldn’t resist it.”

    it made me laugh

  4. @Eoin,
    I have to be suitably humble and respectful when I mention the conservatives or Roland will come roaring out
    and flay me alive,metaphorically of course.

  5. I didn’t vote for EM, but am I to be the only person here to praise his speech?
    This was my favourite, about Cameron;
    “You were the optimist once but now all you offer is a miserable, pessimistic view of what we can achieve. And you hide behind the deficit to justify it.”
    That’s a vote winner.
    He also placed himself much more in the centre than I thought he would, eg;
    “Labour would not support irresponsible strikes.”
    “Some cuts would be necessary to cut the deficit.”
    Personally I especially liked;
    “Labour will take action against excessive boardroom pay.”
    and;
    “I won’t oppose every cut the coalition proposes.”
    Eoin converted me to the wisdom of that one. ;)

  6. Could someone who knows a little bit about the IMF explain to me how voting powers are calculated? China has only 3.6% voting power and I am wondering how this came to be decided/calculated?

    Also in view of the IMF’s recent comments vis a vis UK austerity packages could someone explain to me who specifically we refer to when we say “The IMF says”? Given that there are more than 180 countries in the IMF, am I to take it that all 180 countries say? Or is there a process whereby the label IMF can be attached to an individual comentator or reports, thoughts?

    Does anyone have any views on how independant the IMF is with regards to advocating supply-side or monetarist approaches? Its pronouncements ten to favour the latter, although I might hypothesise that all 180 member sates do not favour this approach?

    In view of these questions (or answers if someone has them), should I pay heed to what the IMF has to say, or is their a more credible international body I should look to?

  7. Julian,

    Ann liked his speech. He certainly convinced me that he is more charismatic and fluid than I once thought him…. But I’ll judge his deeds not his words…

  8. eoin

    IMF is short for…………… Imposed by Milton Friedman

  9. @ Éoin

    Upon membership of the IMF, member countries deposit a sum of money known as a ‘quota subscription’. This sum will determine how much money the country can draw from the Fund in times of crisis. Quotas also determine the voting rights of each member country, which means, like the World Bank, decision-making power in the IMF rests with the countries with the highest contribution.
    ——————————
    More to follow: Tell me when you get bored. 8-)

  10. Something I picked up on in his speech was early on when he was talking about who he was. He said something like his dad had written a book saying that the ballot box was not the way for Socialism to triumph, and a couple of sentences later that his own beliefs were formed and influenced by his parents. This got a big round of applause.

    I’ll have to try to find a transcript to check this, but if my memory’s right it’s quite disturbing.

  11. @ Éoin

    The IMF lends money to member countries faced with balance of payments problems, ie when a country fails to earn sufficient foreign currency—through exports or provision of services—to pay for its imports. In return for financial assistance from the IMF, borrower countries must implement a set of economic reforms aimed at overcoming their balance of payments problems. Loans are disbursed in installments and payment is tied to the countries’ compliance with the structural adjustment policies.
    —————————————————–
    Enough? Or shall I keep going?

  12. @Amber

    Who decides what interest can be charged by the IMF?

  13. Amber,

    Please keep going-

  14. This wasn’t a great speech….certainly not Obama. I’ve read too much JFK not to recognise the new generation stuff…still he didn’t say ‘hey, hey we’re the monkeys’….

    Bits of it were better than other bits and it certainly gives him a platform to build on rhetorically and politically. He dealt with the worse preconceptions of the press and was most authentic on describing what went wrong for Labour and why he thought it went wrong. That wuill make people give him a chance to say more. That’s an important first step.

    I think he’ll be well received for his honesty even if the analysis makes some uncomfortable.
    At the end of the day it draws a line over the recent past and gives him room to build something different with the public.

    This was a serious piece of political positioning and I don’t think that should bring easy comfort to the coalition…this man is serious and has serious ambition…He will make weather without making policy…and all politicians want to be able to do that….He’s planning for the long four year haul….he’s to be taken at his own estimation…that’s a pretty good place to be right now before the government has even made one cut a reality.

  15. @ Éoin

    The best bit is the Board of Governors – they ‘run’ the IMF.

    USA – Timothy Giethner & Ben Bernanke

    UK – George Osbourne & Mervyn King

    This is what you were really looking for, wasn’t it? ;-)

  16. @PETE B
    EM said; -“I suppose not everyone has a dad who wrote a book saying he didn’t believe in the Parliamentary road to socialism.”
    This was supposed to be ironic. Here is his son standing at the head of a parliamentary party, with a good chance of winning an election. His father was a Marxist. You probably would be too if you were brought up in the Jewish quarter of Warsaw during the rise of Hitler.
    Later he said;
    “What my parents learnt in fear, they passed on to us in an environment of comfort and security.”
    What’s worrying about that?
    Here’s the full transcript of the speech;
    h ttp://www.twitlonger.com/show/689mhh

  17. Amber,

    Wow- I did not know that, I can assure you…. Do you have an answer for Mike N’s q? Perhaps Richard’s moniker is an appropriate one.

  18. @ Éoin & Richard in Norway

    In order of votes & influence:
    1. USA
    2. Japan
    3. Germany
    4. UK
    5. France

  19. @Julian,
    i am not sure that liked is quite the right word.Ithink it was a speech with a definate purpose,which was to position himself in the centre ground,it was clever and rang all the right bells,.I think it achieved its aim.I think he is going to be a very popular leader for the labour party.As an orator he still has a long way to go,I have done some public speaking myself and distinctly felt that after about 15 minutes he temporarily lost it a bit.But hey,think of the pressure!He is visibly learning on the job.

  20. According to the IMF in 2009,the republic of ireland has 1.5T euro of debt.

    How on earth did 4.5m people get into that much debt?

    The truth is ireland is on the brink,they will end up being a protectorate of the EU,just as Greece is today.

    The price hoWever will not just be savage cuts,the irish treasured low corpartion tax will go,if & when this happens,Ireland will not run their own country anymore.

    Cut your debt,take the hit,don’t leave it to your grandchildren,or they will be in debt to the banks for a lifetime.MESSAGE TO RED-ED.

  21. Anne

    “I do not think David Milliband could have made that speech.How could he have condemned the Iraq war for a start?”

    Absolutely right.

    DM turned to HH at that point in the speech and asked her “why are you clapping” ?

    She voted for the war.

  22. @John Murphy,
    Agreed!

  23. @ Éoin, Mike N

    The IMF has its own composite base rate determined from components based on the major financial instruments used by the top 5 members. Here’s a bit of the technical stuff:

    Interest rate on the financial instrument of each component currency in the SDR basket, expressed as an equivalent annual bond yield: three-month Eurepo rate; three-month Japanese Treasury Discount bills (effective February 5, 2009, replacing the thirteen-week Japanese Government financing bills); three-month UK Treasury bills; and three-month US Treasury bills.
    8-)

  24. pete B

    that was the only part of the speech which nodded to old/real labour

    socialists are not represented in this parliament, maybe some of the SNP but other than that

    ed has put the boot into his base

    eoin would say that DC has been doing the same

    how does it feel when your party abandons you

    there will be a lot of agitated people on the left tonight, i’m sure you can sympathise with their plight

  25. @RICHARD
    Once again you have got it all wrong. Why should retired civil servants with pensions of over 35k pa not receive free bus passes and winter fuel allowance.
    Why should people who have not worked for 30 years be made to start now? Sod the grandchildren, you know it makes sense.

  26. Anne

    “thought david milliband looked pretty stoney faced during the speech.I really do not think he will be in the shadow cabinet now ”

    Right again Anne by TV news reports.

    He will not put his name forward for Shadow Cabinet.

  27. Julian,
    Thanks for the link. This was the quotes that disturbed me:

    “I suppose not everyone has a dad who wrote a book saying he didn’t believe in the Parliamentary road to socialism. ……What my parents learnt in fear, they passed on to us in an environment of comfort and security.”

    I know I’ve missed a sentence out, but that quote could be read as meaning that deep down he believes in the violent overthrow of capitalism.

    As you say, a Jew living under the Nazis could be excused for being a Marxist, but that doesn’t mean that we want his Marxist son leading a revolution in England.

  28. @ANNE (IN WALES)
    Personally, I’m a bit suspicious of really smooth speech makers.
    That’s why I liked GB. ;)

  29. Like Eoin I am a wait and see person with EdM.

    No-one is arguing that the deficit should not be cut, the difference is Ed Balls and the like including at least one on the MPC (see this link h ttp://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/stephanieflanders/2010/09/rocking_the_boat_on_the_mpc.html), argue that the best way to cut the deficit is through growth not (just) cuts. I believe that is the real lesson to learn from Ireland.

    If the message is framed in those terms, you don’t scare those who want the deficit cut, but also don’t destroy the economy.

  30. @ Richard

    How did Ireland get into so much debt?

    The wise all knowing all seeing Bankers my friend…the men who never err and who never pay for their errors.

    In ancient times we called them gods. In medieval times they sold us heaven for the price of a mass. In the French Revolution they put someone else’s head on the block…

    Today they lend us money they’ve already lent to someone else.

    Who could be wiser?

    After all if we chose to believe in them we deserve to be cheated by them.

  31. Andy Burnham has been forced to withdraw his name from membership of the shadow cabinet. He has injured his back falling from the mascara truck.

  32. roland

    your on form tonight

  33. @Amber

    Thanks – I almost regret asking! :-)

  34. @ROLAND
    You’re just jealous because Andy’s popular with the ladeez.

  35. Eoin

    “He did not detail any policy, which infuriates me I must say”

    I thought it would -I was thinking of you as I watched the video just now.

    In fairness though this wasn’t a speech for policy but for “positioning” .
    He has the Leaders T shirt-no need to do all that sucking up any more-time to start appealing to the real voters.

    ie

    I’m newer than Cameron.
    I’m an optimist-he’s a pessimist.
    They ain’t grabbing the centre ground cos that’s where I am-now.
    I’m not Red-just talking about stuff.
    Tax Bankers cos they caused all this mess.
    Raise Minimum wage to a “Living Wage”
    Families are important.
    Society is important.
    Mass immigration was wrong.
    Iraq was wrong.
    Political strikes are wrong ( Did you see D Simpson’s face -and what he mouthed ?)
    Work isn’t everything-lets enjoy life & have a great future.

    Vote Labour -please.

  36. @PETE B
    Agreed. What we need is a PM whose father was a capitalist living under Stalin. Actually Dave’s grandad on his mothers side was a Jewish financier. Therefore he might qualify. I should think the old chap lived under some monster or another in eastern Europe.

  37. @ Richard in Norway

    I think there will be a few agitated people on the left (Bob Crowe is one of them). The rest of the union leaders are very pleased with Ed’s speech.

    And most social democrats think it is too good to be true (see Roger in Mexico’s earlier post). 8-)

  38. @COLIN
    Don’tcha just love this new definition of a pessimist?
    “Look everyone, we owe £zillions and we need to pay it back.”
    As opposed to the new optimist, “we owe £zillions but who gives a sh.t”.

  39. Roland
    Ho ho. It was only a matter of time before the Marxists made a comeback in the Labour Party. They’re always there. Not so much Reds under the Bed as reds in yer Face. Bevan, Foot, Nellist, Hatton etc etc.

  40. @ Colin

    From Derek Simpson, joint general secretary of Unite

    This was a speech worthy of the next prime minister and it’s why Unite backed him. Ed’s humanity is the antidote to David Cameron’s callous attack on working families. As Ed grows in stature, the ConDems will look increasingly insincere and disconnected. Ed demonstrated he can break free from the worst of Labour’s past and present a realistic alternative to the coalition’s cuts.

    8-)

  41. amber

    “too good to be true” that was my feeling as well, i’m having a hard time trusting this guy. not fair after one speech i know

    you know i thinking that he might be all warm and cuddly on the outside, cynical and ruthless on the inside

    maybe, you have got yourselves a winner

  42. @ Colin

    DM turned to HH at that point in the speech and asked her “why are you clapping, you voted for it” ?

    HH replied, “You know very well, because I support him.”

    “Him” = Ed M
    8-)

  43. @AMBER STAR
    That settles it the guys a winner.

  44. Colin,

    I saw Simpnson and Woodley’s faces- priceless. You’re right Ed M cut some encouraging words on society. (and Palestine :) )

    Graham,

    Needless to say, I agree with you.

    Amber,

    Many thanks- gees I think I’ll give their future utterances a miss.

  45. @ Richard in Norway

    “too good to be true” that was my feeling as well, i’m having a hard time trusting this guy. not fair after one speech i know
    ————————————
    Politicians of any colour are not be trusted by what they say. All we can do is listen, vote & see what they do with power once they get it.

    I will trust Ed M when (okay Roland, if) he has a couple of years of government under his belt & we’ve seen what he does with it. 8-)

  46. Roland.

    Yes-he really struggled (IMO) to find a differentiation with DC-because in tacking back to the centre ground & telling them Labour cuts would have hurt too-Society is Good-Family is Good etc etc he was jostling with Cameron on the same ground.

    So I thought the repition of “this generation” , plus that “you were an optimist once” thing ( clearly a play on DC’s crack at Blair ) was the best he could do.

    I felt before that this guy has to be careful that he cannot please everyone-and the faces of messrs D Simpson & T Woodley after his remarks about political strikes just shows that he will be reminded of the positions he took in trying to get elected.

    But the real world is yet to come for him-HoC facing DC & deciding on voting policy as the Coalitions legislation starts to hit the tracks.

    Looking forward to October 19th ( I think ?) -will he be on the barricades with the Brothers as promised-or too busy -like he was when his partner signed their childs Birth Certificate. ( Do you find that one a bit strange Roland-or is it just me ?)

  47. Amber

    “From Derek Simpson, joint general secretary of Unite”

    Jolly good-thanks.

    Wonder why he mouthed “rubbish” then during the bit about strikes.?

  48. grahambc

    Obama has a plan,the US deficit currently $1.4 trillion,or for every $10 spent they borrow $4.

    His plan is this’cut the deficit in half in four years’ Hmm ,i am sure someone else has that policy.

    To be fair though Obama is not above stealing from the great ex-leader,when Brown was COE it was always borrow today,but jam tomorrow,GDP growth would take care of everything HONEST!

    It took the USA over 200 yrs to borrow $1 trillion,in fact around 1982 under Reagan.Bush the biggest spender in US history borrowed $ 4 trilion in 8 yrs.

    Obama’s projected deficit see’s him borrowing over $10 trillion in 7 yrs.

    However he is in your camp,growth will take care of things.To even get these horrific borrowing figures,the US economy has to grow at 4-5% per annum through 2020,3% in 2010,4-5% thereafter.

    During the Bush yrs,wilth record credit,record tax cuts,the US economy grew about 3.5% on average.

    The US economy is projected now to grow at 1.9% this yr & perhaps 2.5% (at best in 2011,)he will already be over $500bn more in the red in just 2 yrs.

    Food for thought,to pay back just $1trillion at $1 a second, would take over 33,000 yrs.

  49. pete B

    reds under the bed? bevan?

    so you don’t like the NHS?

    hysteria mean anything to you?

  50. Colin,

    There are a lot of ideological reasons why one might not sign a birth certificate. If the family it its choreographed nucleus form is man, woman , child designated particularly in victorian society as one economic unit, a refusal to sign a birth certificate could be an Owenite rejection of Breadwinner ideology. I appreciate it is complicated but I suspect a healthy does of pro-women rearing from his mum contributed greatly to his neglecting to sign the certificate. It bodes well for fans of sure start and advocates of greater rights for single mums. In fact, on gender equal issues such as the one that peturbs you Ed M is significantly in advance of many Labour MPs. I’ll gvie him credit on that one.

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