I’ve been predicting for a while that we’d see some conference polls with Labour ahead, and bang on time tonight we have. The first voting intention poll with Ed Miliband as Lavour leader has topline figures of CON 39%, LAB 40%, LDEM 12%. It’s YouGov’s first poll with Labour in front since the election-that-never-was in 2007, and indeed the first time they’ve hit 40.

Conference polls are a strange and rather artifical thing of course, Labour might well do even better after Miliband’s speech tomorrow, but I’d expect them to go back behind next week when the Conservatives enjoy their own conference boost. Nevertheless, it’ll be a good boost to Labour morale and presumably Ed Miliband will be delighted to be back in the lead in the polls in his first poll as leader.

More to come later (or tomorrow morning) once the Sun publish the rest of the poll.


164 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – 39/40/12”

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  1. RAF said:

    “I do find that smaller Parties find genuine internal democracy easier to manage than larger ones.”

    OLDNAT replied:
    “As with parties, so with countries – though those with North Korean tendencies will lack internal democracy, regardless of size”.

    Or is it that North Korea (despite being a small country) suffers from having a very large (single) Party?

  2. Silly question, I suppose, but is there a reason why irregular posters are seemingly blackballed?

    I thought my post at 12.13 (and other occassional posts over the months) might have elicited SOME response, but seemingly not.

    Yes, this sounds like (and indeed IS) a whinge. But I read the posts every night and would prefer that it were less of a closed-shop (Labour) or gentlemens’ club (Tory).

  3. @STEVE COBERMAN
    That happened to me too! No idea why. Very strange.

  4. RAF

    24 million probably doesn’t rank as being “small”, but as to your “suffers from having a very large (single) Party?” – thanks for making my point!

    Many partisans on here actually seem to want that situation to exist.

    Sad – but also sad, bad, and dangerous.

  5. @RAF

    Thanks. I DO exist :)

    btw, like others I thought your contributions earlier were enlightening.

  6. The Lib Dems will NOT split!! Wishful thing Labourites, wishful thinking. Why do Labour people really hate having any other opposition other than the Tories?? The Lib Dems have been around since the Whigs (a lot longer than the Labour Party) and they will survive. They’ve survived a lot worse than a few opinion poll blips over the years. In 1989 they fell to 3% and still survived to get 18% in the Gen Elex of 92. And they’ll be there after the next election. They might lose in the North but they’ll gain in the South and SWest and the Celtic fringe will stay loyal to their personal vote MPs because they don’t really care about the Westminster fray. As for people switching. If they really can’t remain loyal when a leader is leading (yes taking risks but that’s leadership) and implementing LIBERAL policies then are they really true Liberal supporters. Better off without fairweather friends i’d say. As for Labour, they must support AV. Lib Dems strong or weak, the Labour Party needs AV because neither Labour or Tory will ever get a legitimate majority vote mandate again. One final thing Ed M needs to do is try and change the attitude and culture within the Labour Party. Every Labour person i ever meet has a control freak/bullying attitude about them. As though they’ve somehow all been to bossy teacher school. It might be me but i never feel it among Liberals, Tories, Scots Nats etc……With Labour bods you always feel like you’re being talked down to. Change that and i might be tempted to give them my 2nd or 3rd pref vote under AV (but only just).

  7. @OLDNAT
    Agreed.

    @STEVE COBERMAN
    Thanks. Nice to know we both exist!

    Signing off now. It’s been an interesting evening. Goodnight all!

  8. RAF,

    Nice to see you posting. Good nite :)

  9. Eoin

    I had wondered about the cultural/religious tradition thing – but as a Presbyterian agnostic (you will understand the apparent contradiction), I didn’t want to offend, or stray into difficult territory.

    Despite my dislike of Tony Blair’s dictatorial tendencies, however, I don’t think he’d have had you kneecapped. On second thoughts …….

  10. @ RAF

    So I hardly think his decision to team up with DC was “dishonest”. It’s probably his natural home.
    ————————————————–
    I didn’t think the Coalition forming was dishonest.

    I thought Clegg’s whole shtick about ‘honest politics’ was dishonest. Dems are no more honest than the average politician/ activist. That’s what I meant. :-)

  11. OldNat,

    a penchant for marist leninism didnt help either. You say cabal- I say vanguard ;)

  12. Eoin

    “marist leninism”

    That’s either the best joke ever – or the best typo ever. Either way, hilarious! :-)

  13. @ Amber Star

    I thought Ed would win when I read that Jim Murphy had been sent to go negotiate for David with Ed’s people on how to handle a possible Ed win. That seemed to me like an indication that the momentum was with Ed and a concession from David’s campaign.

    I looked up the results and found it amazing how David had seemingly dominated constituency Labour parties (at least in the first round). Perhaps it was that feeling of momentum that led to surprises. Still you’d have to imagine that if the Labour MP vote was heavily behind David, that would be enough to overcome Ed’s union advantage.

    There’s something about that family that strikes me as highly dysfunctional. All that love talk seems kinda phony.

  14. @ Old Nat

    mote? beam? eye?
    ———————————-
    Jeez, Old Nat – I lived through the New Labour years, there is no room in my eyes for anymore motes, never mind beams – & I shall carry on regardless, whinging about things I don’t like! ;-)

  15. OldNat,

    Tis alright- I’ve been civilised by the sasenach- who know’s I might even cast a vote one day :)

  16. @ Old Nat

    I’m not sure about that. In those days, if you were drafted, you could pay someone to go do your service for you. Plus since privilege wasn’t and still isn’t inherited, you wouldn’t need to have people on both sides. Additionally, I think feelings between northerners and southerners were fairly strong and prevented people from hedging their bets.

    Where there were probably more family divides probably occurred in border states and slave states that remained with the union. But some of those families probably didn’t like each other to begin with. I mean Marylanders and Virginians still don’t particularly like each other. So if you had Maryland families sending their kids to fight for the union and Virginia families sending their kids to fight for the Confederacy, that might not have been bet hedging.

  17. @ SoCalLiberal

    There’s something about that family that strikes me as highly dysfunctional. All that love talk seems kinda phony.
    ————————————————
    I blame Bill Clinton. ;-)

  18. SoCalLiberal

    “Plus since privilege wasn’t and still isn’t inherited”

    I was referring to money as privilege. That remains heritable on both sides of the Atlantic. I’m always fascinated by US Inheritance Tax/Death Tax (call it what you will) that is remarkably redistributive on the surface, but has so many exemptions that it doesn’t seem to exist in practice.

    And also, I was meaning the estate owners in the border states. It’s a long time since I studied US History, but I seem to remember that in states like Virginia and Maryland, a number of estate owners had brothers fighting on opposite sides, to ensure that the estate would remain in the family.

  19. PS – if you want a long-term political betting tip to stick quite a lot of money on, Obama to be re-elected is 2.12 on Betfair, an absolutely excellent price. Haven’t checked with other bookies though.

  20. @ Amber

    Yeah but the Clintons are only married. Dysfunction is expected. The Milibands are blood brothers.

  21. @ Old Nat

    “I was referring to money as privilege. That remains heritable on both sides of the Atlantic. I’m always fascinated by US Inheritance Tax/Death Tax (call it what you will) that is remarkably redistributive on the surface, but has so many exemptions that it doesn’t seem to exist in practice.”

    Ah, I see what you mean. Yes, money is a privilege. It’s known as the Estate Tax (my dad is an Estates, Trusts, and Wills lawyer and deals with the stuff all day long). Technically it’s not in effect this year so if you luck out and any wealthy relatives dies this year, you will not pay estate taxes to the federal government on the inheritance. Next year though, the Estate Tax goes back into full effect at its 2001 levels. There are numerous exceptions that good estate planning lawyers will help people take advantage of. But it’s still an effective tax. My dad and I actually fight over it because he opposes the Estate Tax and I support it. The common complaint is that it’s a tax on dead people, it doesn’t prevent dynasties, and it often forces people to sell family homes and family farms that they cherish (a family farm may bring in very little cash but may be worth a lot and forces an inheriting farmer to sell it just to pay the taxes). I can see the argument. I still support it though, at least the idea because it helps prevent dynasties. People point out to me that it really doesn’t avoid that.

    Does the UK not have something similar?

    “And also, I was meaning the estate owners in the border states. It’s a long time since I studied US History, but I seem to remember that in states like Virginia and Maryland, a number of estate owners had brothers fighting on opposite sides, to ensure that the estate would remain in the family.”

    I had not heard that. Doesn’t mean it didn’t happen. I think the estate would have remained in the family either way. But there’s no way that they could have known that at the time.

    There was a great House Speaker back then (the most liberal, radical, and most awesome until Nancy Pelosi), Thaddeus Stevens, a Republican from Pennsylvania. When southern armies invaded Pennsylvania, they made sure to burn down Stevens’s iron factory.

  22. @ Amber

    Btw, it’s interesting to talk to friends of mine who don’t follow politics about Ed beating David and to get their reactions. I just told my best friend about it and her response was “That would really suck!”

    There are some families where kids are pushed to compete against each other. Sibblings are taught not to be friends but to be rivals. Sometimes it’s accidental (parents push their kids into competition because it’s how they were raised) but sometimes it’s intentional (some people tried to convince my parents to pit me and my sibblings against each other….I’m fortunate they refused). Who knows if the Milibands were raised this way or if it’s an odd coincidence. But that type of rivalry is the kind that would lead to two brothers running against each other.

    What’s good for Labour politically is that the brothers may be competitors against each other but they may think similarly and see public policy along the same similar lines. This helps unify the party.

    I never saw that much difference politically between Tony Blair and Gordon Brown (it seemed more like a Kobe and Shaq style feud).

  23. SoCalLiberal

    “Does the UK not have something similar? ”

    Indeed it does.

    “Death duties”, as they were referred to, are blamed for destroying the wealth of the landed gentry during the wars of the early 20th century. Crocodile tears trickle down my cheeks when I think of it! :-) Imperialists caught by the consequences of imperialism rather please me.

    What we don’t have is any tax on the increased value of your primary residence. Any unearned income on the rise in value of that is wholly untaxed – regardless of how short a period you have owned it for. In Maryland I know that the situation is different – perhaps only for state taxes?

    In the UK, there is an entirely centralised system. Only one form of local taxation is allowed (theoretically Scotland could have changed the system here, but the UK state would have exacted a severe penalty had we done so).

    I am constantly surprised at the unwillingness of states in the US to use their huge range of taxation powers to improve the services for which they are responsible.

  24. While we’re on the US, Thune to win the Republican nomination for ’12 is quite a good punt at odds of around 7 or so, possibly to be laid off nearer the time.

  25. Actually at 8 or so, sorry. Even better odds.

  26. SoCalLiberal

    re the Millibands

    Tony Benn was a friend of Ralph Milliband,the father of David and Ed. Tony has an interesting entry in his diaries from 10 years ago when he and son Hilary dined with the Milliband brothers and their widowed mother.

    “We had a very amusing dinner. I was keen not to be provocative in any way,and it wouldn’t have been possible anyway. The boys live entirely in the world of the Prime Minister’s advisers. They see policy as something they work out, push through the policy forums, push through the Conference and then, having had an election victory, they push it through the Cabinet and the Commons. There’s no real participatory element in it.They’re both in their thirties, I think,and I was treated as a sort of kindly old gentleman.”

    If the Labour supporters on here imagine that there will be any kind of participatory democracy in the Labour Party, I think they will be mightily disillusioned.

    However, they will loyally support any kind of mince (do you use that derogatory term? – it might be Scots or UK usage) that the leader requires them to.

    For example, in Scotland the Labour Party has decided that alcohol isn’t our real problem – it’s caffeine. They want mandatory jail sentences for everyone carrying a knife (regardless of circumstances) which will mean real problems for anyone wanting to buy a kitchen knife – how do they get it home?

    Sensible people would question their leader’s decisions. Alas, leadership is to be treasured and obeyed without question.

  27. @ Old Nat

    What happenned to that landed gentry? Were they forced to give up their land? Did they ever recover monetarily?

    Federal estate taxes tax the values of property you own if I’m not mistaken. States may also enact separate estate tax systems. Then there are federal capital gains taxes which don’t apply to home ownership but instead to investments where you pay a percentage of whatever profit you earn on an investment. So if you bought an office building and sold it years later at a much higher price than you purchased it for, the profit would be taxed under the applicable capital gains tax rate. The same doesn’t apply for homes.

    In California, we have this weird system (like communism, it sounds great in theory but turned out to be a disaster in reality) where your property taxes are frozen on the assessed value that you intially purchased your home for. The problem is, this extends to all properties, not just residential properties. So let’s say in 1982, you buy a condo for $150,000 (I think that’s 225,000 pounds if not more with inflation). Today in 2010, your property tax assessment is as if you own a $150,000 home. Now let’s say across the hall, in 2008 a condo unit is purchased not for $150,000 but $950,000. Your new neighbors will be assessed for a $950,000 property.

    There are positive effects to this. It allows people to keep the homes they’ve lived in all their lives and protects retirees from being forced out due to land values skyrocketing in their neighborhoods. But it applies to all property (much to the boon of owners of shopping malls, apartment buildings, office buildings, etc). This dramatically reduces the tax revenue of the state and leaves schools chronically underfunded.

    “I am constantly surprised at the unwillingness of states in the US to use their huge range of taxation powers to improve the services for which they are responsible.”

    I’m not quite sure I understand.

    @ P Brown

    Thune would be a formidable opponent. I wouldn’t bet on any of them.

  28. I’m next to certain that Thune will end up as one of the frontrunners for the Republican ticket by sole virtue of the reason that he is the most electable.

    I reckon Obama would wipe the floor with any of the other current likely candidates in the run-up to the election. I also reckon however that Obama has about a 60-65% chance of beating Thune if he ends up on the ticket.

  29. @ Old Nat

    “mince” I’m afraid is an unfamiliar term to me.

    “Sensible people would question their leader’s decisions. Alas, leadership is to be treasured and obeyed without question.”

    My dad and I used to joke about my mom’s family being like that.

    The thing about Tony Benn’s commentary is that I’m not sure either one is electorally strong. You have to have appeal to voters where people can relate to you and like you. I don’t think voters neccesarily go for that.

    “For example, in Scotland the Labour Party has decided that alcohol isn’t our real problem – it’s caffeine. They want mandatory jail sentences for everyone carrying a knife (regardless of circumstances) which will mean real problems for anyone wanting to buy a kitchen knife – how do they get it home?”

    It’s too bad your courts don’t have the power of judicial review. Even if the Four Horsemen and Ayatollah Kennedy on the Supreme Court hadn’t decided to rewrite the U.S. Constitution in order to satisfy NRA fringe groups (there’s something really inappropriate when the Cheif Justice decides to take it upon himself to become the opposition leader against the president)…..I think a statute like that in the U.S. would likely be unconstitutional. You’re being faceitious when you say Labour doesn’t believe alcohol is a problem in Scotland but caffeine is right?

  30. Raving Tory here!!

    As much as most of my friends couldn’t wait for Ed to win (like most Tories) I couldn’t help wanting “PM in waiting” David to take up his natural place in the pecking order. I truly believe that Labour have, second time running, shot themselves in the foot with both barrels.

    How many Labour supporters here thought Gordon was the greatest thing since slice bread when your mind boggling democratic process was simply ignored so he could be anointed unopposed?

    How much of Ed’s union support amounted to the same people getting a second vote?

    Whilst Auntie is obsessed with “The Cuts” and the slightest signs of “Further Splits in The Coalition” as others have said, hopes of an election in the next fou yearsr are largely wishful thinking on your part.

    If anyone doesn’t make 2015 my money is on Ed.

  31. Ashley,

    With Labour bods you always feel like you’re being talked down to. Change that and i might be tempted to give them my 2nd or 3rd pref vote under AV (but only just).

    I hope you aren’t basing this on winning the AV referendum, as it won’t be anything other than a no vote.

  32. Ashley,

    As for Labour, they must support AV. Lib Dems strong or weak, the Labour Party needs AV because neither Labour or Tory will ever get a legitimate majority vote mandate again. One final thing Ed M needs to do is try and change the attitude and culture within the Labour Party. Every Labour person i ever meet has a control freak/bullying attitude about them. As though they’ve somehow all been to bossy teacher school.

    Labour need not support AV. I think you are wrong, and Lab or Con can win a ‘legitimate’ majority again, IMO.

    As regards Labour people having a control freak or bossy attitude, I am afraid this is entirely subjective. I do not consider myself to have a bully or control freak attitude in any shape or form, and neither do most of the posters on this site of any affiliation. Only one does spring to mind, and they are certainly not a Labour supporter…

  33. Neil P

    Whilst Auntie is obsessed with “The Cuts” and the slightest signs of “Further Splits in The Coalition” as others have said, hopes of an election in the next four years are largely wishful thinking on your part.

    Normally, when people put words in quotations, it can mean they have some dispute with the veracity of those words. Is this the case, or have I misinterpreted your meaning?

    Auntie is not obsessed by the Coalition cuts – they are real and threaten the lives of many people on middle incomes and real devastation to those on the lowest incomes. Every service we receive will worsen and be poorer too.

    As regards to splits in the Coalition, the modern 24 hr media did exactly the same with the Last Government (regarding Brown etc). It is also a genuine concern because the stability of our Government in a critical economic time needs it to be strong.

    I think the Coalition has had an easy ride from all major media channels at the moment. If you don’t like the tone of Auntie, why not just see the 90% of other media channels, including all of Murdoch’s, and the other right-wing dominated print media we are blessed with ;-)

  34. Errata

    Livestyle not lives

  35. Noise lots of noise that’s all this poll is!
    Where was the poll taken ? At the labour conference hall!

  36. so wayne when the poll is taken at the tory conferecne hall and shows a tory lead , you will be equally dismissive no ?

  37. if AV is going to lead to coalitions then I would vote for it rather than see labour out of office for generations ..I would prefer a lab lib govt than a tory one

    but will it ?

    if we had a vote on current polls labour and tory would be very close on seats

  38. I’ve been a Labour voter all my life. Can I vote for Ed Milliband? NO! Would I have voted for David Milliband? YES!

  39. if AV is going to lead to coalitions then I would vote for it rather than see labour out of office for generations ..I would prefer a lab lib govt than a tory one

    but will it ?

    if we had a vote on current polls labour and tory would be very close on seats

    In 1983, it would have been widely thought that Labour could never win an Election again….never say never

  40. Given that three members of the current shadow cabinet voted for Ed, while more than half put their name to a letter endorsing David, it seems increasingly likely that the only viable course for either is that the elder Miliband step down from the front bench.
    Wednesday’s nominations will be crucial. Ed has to bring forward a generation of thirty-somethings if he is to establish authority.
    Too many references circulating in the press from colleagues(?) who have worked with him at the treasury and in cabinet saying he has a reputation for being a ditherer.

  41. I’m old enough to remember how cock a hoop Labour was in 1975 when they made Mrs Thatcher leader of the Conservative Party…..it was said she’d never get elected and in 1979 it was thought she’d never last a full term…..

    I’d think it’s wise to watch and see what Ed Milliband says and does rather than over-interpreting things on the basis of little evidence. It was also thought that Wilson was the wrong choice over George Brown. The press loved Gaitskill but he never won an election…

    The noble art of punditry isn’t a science based on knowlege….and often the language is self serving. As I think bankers and such are now treated with a little scpeticism by theelectorate I also think ‘Red Ed’ feels about as true as’Boris’s bus looks like a routemaster…wishful thinking wont make it so….

    As for Mr Cameron and his many talents….well time will tell….I also remeber Mr Heath and his Quiet Revolution… in his first conference speech after WINNING an election in 1970….look where that ended.

  42. Remember that this was an election that was between people in the same party, with similar ideas… I voted DM, but the choice was close. I am disappointed but not unhappy that EM won. I suspect that many MPs feel the same – they might have voted DM 1, but if he hadn’t stood they would have voted EM…

    Unlike with TB and GB I don’t think we’ll see a lot of infighting in Labour, we’ve learnt that lesson.

  43. @SocialLiberal

    “It makes me wonder if UK Politics has shifted in favor of Labour being the natural party of government and the Tories as the natural party of opposition. Of course, politics can change in a blink of an eye these days. But yeah, Labour did recover pretty quickly.”

    Of course, that was always Tony Blair’s vision and, although I’m not sure he actually achieved it, the longevity of the Labour administrations of Blair and Brown did make any lingering memories of a Tory Government fade somewhat into the mid-distant past. For example, no first time voter in 2010 would have had any recollection of a Conservative Government whatsoever and you would have had to have been in your 30s to have had fully formed adult memories of the Thatcher and Major eras. Accordingly, by 2010, the collective national memory of what Conservatism in power actually meant had begun to exclude large parts of the electorate.

    There is also another factor in all of this, and it may underly the reasons for Labour’s swift post 2010 GE recovery. The as yet untold story of post war British politics is the glacial but steady erosion in the Tory vote, declining in virtually every election since 1951. They haven’t polled anywhere near 40% in a General Election for nigh on 20 years and in terms of geographical strength, have largely withered to an essentially South Eastern English party. It’s almost incredible to recall now, but even in my lifetime, in the mid 1950s, they were the largest party in Scotland in terms of vote share and seats. How times have changed and they’re now really a national political party in name only.

    Why does this matter, you may ask , when both major parties have shrunk in terms of their core and potential support? I think it matters because it suggests something very fundamental has happened in British politics. That old near-invincible electoral leviathan, once known as the Conservative Party, is much weaker and more vulnerable than it once was in its heyday. In my view, that has changed the whole dynamic of our electoral politics and, accordingly, makes it much more unlikely that the Tories will attain the electoral and political hegemony that they once assumed was their natural birthright. In turn, that opens the door to all sorts of interesting scenarios, one of which we’re seeing now. Who’d have thought we’d ever see a Tory-Lib Dem coalition government in our lifetime? Certainly not those old Tory folk heroes like Churchill, MacMillan and Thatcher, presumably now rolling uncomfortably in their political graves (obviously a metaphorical grave in Mrs Thatcher’s case!!)!

  44. Ed is an unknown quantity. Being a blank canvas gives him the advantage of being able to paint his own self portrait for public consumption.

    However the diisadvantage is that this painting is going to be done in the glare of publicity so he has to get it right from the start. No erasor for him i’m afraid.

    If he really is going to distance himself from the “mistakes” of Brown and Blair, today, then I am impressed.

    It is always a good idea to state the bleeding obvious so this will go down well with the public as well as some in the Lab party.

  45. Amber

    “Labour has a cunning plan”

    Yes-it’s called Tax.

    If an EM Tax, Tax & Spend Spend policy ever gets anywhere near government watch the list of UK companies taking their tax domicile to more competitive tax regimes get longer & longer.

    Wolsely, a FTSE 100 company has just decided to take £112 million pa of UK tax revenue overseas .

    A dozen or so major companies did so under the last Government.

    Those considering leaving UK tax domicile include Diageo, Unilever, HSBC, Standard Chartered.

    GO is committed to reducing UK Corporation Tax over time to more internationally competitive levels. I believe EM will signal the polar opposite of this policy.

    …..and then there is the 50% rate of income tax-any EM predictions?.

    Given Ed’s idea of “middle income” as£20k pa-lets guess-50% top rate over £50k pa -60% over £100k pa-65% over £200k pa ?

    ..and just for Eoin-a basic rate of Income Tax of 25% ;-)

    I can hear the stampede now.

  46. Colin
    I had a long-ish response to you on Somalis, Pakistanis etc in moderation for a while on the last thread. You might find it interesting..and possibly strengthening some of your views

  47. Colin
    I had a comment for you in moderation on the previous thread. You might find it tinteresting

  48. Amber – ‘I believe it was also one of the Tories own who made the “nasty party” remark. That was a gift that just kept on giving’

    Yes, indeed, that comment was a gift, from a politician who herself is a gift to all parties than her own. It pains me to say it but the very embodiment of the Peter Principle….

    Eoin – ‘Bottom line: deride ed B by all means- he’lll cope- but remember, his cheif vice was loyalty to GB, and I know even the blue foe respect that’

    If you meant blues were grateful for his loyalty to GB then yes, we agree ;-)

    The invocation of ‘loyalty’ with EB reminded me of Simon Hoggart’s ‘law of nonsensical reverse’ (Guardian, yesterday)
    Hoggart’s application does not fit here, but the thinking is similar.
    ‘Loyal’ is a word nearly always used in politics as an attribute precisely because the opposite, to be ‘treacherous’, is so negative – but loyalty is not always exercised commendably or commendable in its own right. Labour were destined to lose in 2010 as long as GB was in charge, and thanks to the ‘loyalty’ of his inner circle he remained as leader until the end – so it is no surprise that many in the Labour party have antipathy for Balls. Rather than true loyalty though I’d venture the GB/EB relationship became one of ‘mutual dependency’, neither loved by their party, both weakened considerably without the support of the other.

    He now seems to relish the role of opposition attack dog more than govt minister, and it seems his partial “redemption” in the eyes of his own party over the past few months arises from relief that more of his fire can now be aimed outwards than inwards………..

  49. The public have little appetite for the necessary cuts endorsed only yesterday by the IMF, and thus far Labour are doing an effective job in presenting themselves as the party opposed to deep cuts. What they would do to sort out the economy is another matter, and not one which worries a large proportion of the electorate, who only care about how things will directly affect them. Labour say what they want to hear and they want to buy into it. The LibDem vote is suffering simply because they are no longer the opposition, and as a LibDem MP so eloquently put it last week, a lot of people supported them at the election without even knowing what they’re policies were. They knew they didn’t want Labour but they were reticent about the Tories. The Tory’s core vote is holding up, and if the Coalition policies are successful overall both Tory and LibDem support should rise.

  50. Barney.

    Thank you-have read it-interesting.

    It prompted me to do a bit of Googling, because in my experience ( Midlands) Pakistani immigrants did not derive from a military recruitment cohort.

    You seem to be correct on Indians-better educated-and interestingly no more unemployed than indigenous population.

    Not so for Pakistanis & Bangladeshis apparently-less well educated-and subject to higher unemployment than UK indigenous population ( which prompts many questions about why they prefer unemployment in UK to unemployment in Pakistan & Bangladesh )

    There are 2.3 million British Asians-4% of the population. British Asians make up 50.3% of the UK’s non-European population.

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