I’ve been predicting for a while that we’d see some conference polls with Labour ahead, and bang on time tonight we have. The first voting intention poll with Ed Miliband as Lavour leader has topline figures of CON 39%, LAB 40%, LDEM 12%. It’s YouGov’s first poll with Labour in front since the election-that-never-was in 2007, and indeed the first time they’ve hit 40.

Conference polls are a strange and rather artifical thing of course, Labour might well do even better after Miliband’s speech tomorrow, but I’d expect them to go back behind next week when the Conservatives enjoy their own conference boost. Nevertheless, it’ll be a good boost to Labour morale and presumably Ed Miliband will be delighted to be back in the lead in the polls in his first poll as leader.

More to come later (or tomorrow morning) once the Sun publish the rest of the poll.

164 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – 39/40/12”

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  1. Well done Labour for electing Ed Miliband – the only candidate who’s not damaged goods.

    If the polls turn sour I do fear for him however, since there is clearly a large and influential part of the party who will want his head on a plate, whetever they might say now for the cameras.

  2. Game on politically.

    Ed, having run to the left, a bit, to win the leadership, he will now run to the centre to try to win power.

    ConDems, Whig/Cons under estimate Ed M at their peril.

  3. It likely is artificial + short-term but we reds will take it anyway. :-)

    I had just didn’t want to see it go the other direction when a bounce was expected – that would’ve been been very downheartening for our new leader! 8-)

  4. Not sure how good this really is for Labour as the implications of the Ed win have not really begun to sink in. Having said that with wall to wall coverage it would have been truly amazing if they had not gone into the lead.

  5. LD 12% is -3% in 24 hour. Probably mostly due to conference season stuff.

  6. I agree with Anthony – it’ a temporary lead (brought about, I would contend, by interest in the human drama involving the brothers).

    Although the 1% lead is within the margin of error, it’s psychologically important and will be attributed to EM’s promotion to the leadership.

    Labour supporters like me will have our hearts in our mouths when he first faces off against David Cameron in PMQs – that will be EM’s first real test. If the Tory benches applaud when EM first gets up to ask a question then he will be really tested!

  7. Hooded man
    did you get your money on?
    I have never been a tipster
    Not sure how the bookies did on the leadership-small win for them?

  8. amber

    see post on other thread if you get a chance

  9. One poll doesn’t make a trend, though I’d be surprised if Labour didn’t do well this week, with their conference and shiny new leader. The Tories have their bash next week so it will be their turn to do well.

  10. Richard in norway
    How much of the tv is in Norwegian?
    I know that Scottish fishermen often tune in

    The idea of English being the second language in EU countries doesn’t need to be official EU policy.
    English already is the second language in EU countries. Even in non-EU countries like Norway I would suspect.

  12. colin

    This is one poll in many now with the tory share on the back foot, it is the first that has them behind, that is a trend.

  13. Well predicted Anthony. I suspect the Tories will get a boost of their own next week, to be reversed soon afterwards when the details of the cuts are known.

  14. When blue get their conf. boost who will it come from blue or red?

  15. *yellow

  16. The perception of EM’s performance at PMQ may rely more on the media’s interpretation than reality. I went with a French colleague to see Brown vs Cameron, and as a neutral he rated it a narrow Brown victory… It was reported as a Cameron whitewash.

    As for the poll, great news!

  17. @Eoin

    I’d assume it’s return to trend after an slight upward movement due to conference publicity. Which does mean that the “publicity boost” for the LibDems still exists.

  18. Hooded man
    I think it was you that raised the treasurer post. If not I am sorry. However striking to note that Prescot won a majority of Labour members …but 1% of union votes

  19. Good news for Labour, of course the coming months will be important for Ed Miliband, Labour, Cameron and the ConDem coalition. If the Tories carry on under-estimating Mr.Miliband, then they are going to be in for a serious shock.

    While conference polls are freakish, it be the polls after the spending review, in the run up to devovled and local elections that will be important, and will tell us a more accurate picture of how the public responding to Edward Miliband

  20. Eoin:

    I suspect neither, mainly a rise in voting intention by their own supports plus undecideds will be the bulk of it.

  21. I would like to focus on another aspect of this and many polls since the GE showing the falling LD percentage to try to see whats going on..

    It was almost taken as fact by the Labour voters on here,that the LIb-dems & labour are a left-wing coalition,in thought anyway,opposing the nasty tories.

    However i believe we can possibly now say that the remaining lib-dems,12% or so may just be centre-right libdems.

    This now changes the dynamic,the centre left can no longer say if you add the two centre left parties together you get such & such a percentage.The evidence perhaps shows that the centre right(just tory & libdems remaining vote as small as it may be comes to over 50% of the available vote,or there abouts.

    Of course this can be argued either way,i do however think it is total nonsense to believe all libdems were centre-left.

  22. Whilst the conference season is always a bit strange if the cons boost does not bring them above lab next week then they should be worried.

    With a 1% lead though I think the cons will be relatively comfortable for the time being but, as most have said, there wont be significant shifts until the spending review in October.

  23. I have tried to post a few times since the GE, but for some reason my posts have not appeared on the forum (they can’t be that bad surely?).

    I think Ed’s win could mark a significant shift in UK politics. The key will be whether EM can succesfully argue that the genuine middle is around the £25,000 – £35,000 pa mark, and not the much larger pay brackets described and targetted as being the middle by his predecessors (particulatly TB who believe the middle was around £60,000 pa, and the Tories who believe it to be somewhat higher still.

    Arguing for a lower middle will enable Ed to forcus on how the cuts will disproportionately affect that very group more that any others, and claim he has no abandoned the centre ground.

    As for this poll, I agree with other posters that it is a Conference bounce, but Labour supporters will still be feeling chipper, as it is only a few months since the GE, and everyone was apparently supposed to be in love with the Coalition, but Labour have stubbornly hung on to the Tories coatails and are now level. BEFORE the major cuts even take place.

    It makes you woner just how significant it could prove to be that the Tories failed to win the GE outright, and that Labour started post GE with just a 50 seats deficit. Early days of course, but politics could be just about to become very exciting indeed.

  24. @ barney Crockett
    Just nipped on to see yougov. Decent lift for ed, and fair play while it lasts.

    You may have confused Robin Hood, posting above, and myself – he will be the original version from the middle ages, I’m the dodgy 80s TV version – but it was me you gave the nod on Holland!
    I did check with a number of bookies but the odds were terrible. They all apologised, saying the unions had it sewn up in advance ;-)

  25. Tonights poll entirely to be expected, but congratulations to the Reds on here anyway. You’ve been waiting a very long time for this moment!! As for Ed M, he is the Labour frontbencher about whom I have least opinion. He seems to be characterised as a slightly more leftwing version of his brother. I haven’t seen any of his despatch box performances as a minister, or even any of his speeches or TV appearances. Instinctively I believe that the best place for Labour to win the next election from is the “economically literate centre-left” territory staked out by Darling, so I think Ed will have to scotch the hopes of his more radical backers if he’s going to maximise his chances. Of course at his age he’ll get at least two if not three cracks at winning an election, so it is extremely unlikely that he will fail to succeed DC as PM eventually, so truly a momentous result for him.

  26. Robin Hood,
    I think that Eds biggest test will be tommorow !I think that he will be great.I wonder how many people are actually influenced by prime ministers questions?All that shouting and guffawing is a bit of a turn off I suspect.

  27. RAF

    Great post :)

    Qunicel: Yes I suspect you are correct….

  28. Jay,

    I disagree.. there were 12%s 13%s too remember …. plus the 15% lasted one day which gives it as equal a chance of being an outlier as anything

  29. Too early to wave the flags for common sense, and the Tories will bounce back next week – however the real trend is the slow but steady drop in Government Approval, and more significantly the slow drop in people blaming Labour for the Cuts – helped by some honesty from Mervyn King last week who put the blame fairly on the Banks & Financial Sector. Once the cuts really hit the balance of blame for them will tip where it rightly belongs in to the Tories lap. Thank you IMF for supporting the wide held view that UK economic growth will be damaged by Osborne’s budget – no matter how their report is spun their underlying message is that the fiscal stimulus is being withdrawn too quickly. Intersting to se ehow much David Cameron wins back next week though. I guess we will end up with the Tories 3-4 points in the lead again up to Xmas

  30. @ Neil A

    Of course at his age he’ll get at least two if not three cracks at winning an election, so it is extremely unlikely that he will fail to succeed DC as PM eventually, so truly a momentous result for him.
    He’ll get one shot & resign if he doesn’t win. 8-)

  31. @ Richard in Norway

    I read & enjoyed your post. Is Norway in the Europe gang now? I thought they had declined to join.

  32. @Jaime,
    Isuppose that the second point of your post could equally apply to David Cameron!
    @RAF ,your post seems spot on to me.Keep them coming!

  33. I honestly hope he gets more than one shot. It would be insane short-termism to ditch him so soon.

  34. @Peter Buss

    “with wall to wall coverage it would have been truly amazing if they had not gone into the lead”

    Except that much of the coverage you refer to has been of the “Red Ed”, “Union Stooge”, “far-left Marxist” variety.

    I was honestly expecting a negative bounce. Lets see how he does tomorrow.

  35. In late April the combined tally of blue & yellow (ATTAD) was 65. It is now 51. Will it soon drop below 50 or will the Conservative Conference boost them enough to saty above the important 50 mark ?

  36. I am expecting David Cameron to pay tribute to his father at the Tory conference. Nobody else does the personal nearly as well as David C. His PM rating will certainly go up; his party will pick up a few points & he will drag the government approval rating up a bit too.

  37. Cozmo,

    I suspect the LDs are gonna get hit pretty bad over the next ten days… that might pull the overall score below 50.

    But you bludgeon blues to the cows come home, they’ll still be standing come May 2015. we have to beat them on policy, not popularity.

    If there has ever been a party in UK politicla history to be on its knees and still be competitive come elction time, it is the Tory party. I’ve almost made amental note to ingore their score from now to May 2015.

    Amber is correct, reds need to pollup around 50 at some stage so that even with the slow trickle back to blue, we have a fighting chance at the election.

    Do I think we can do it? At this moment I would give it odds against.

  38. @ANN (IN WALES

    Glad you liked it. I’ll do my best :)

    @NEIL A
    “I honestly hope he gets more than one shot. It would be insane short-termism to ditch him so soon”.

    The problem for him is that the relatively high starting point for him acts as a disadvantage should he lose the GE at his first attempt, as he will be seen as not having made sufficient progress in Opposition at a time where the Government had to do all sorts of unpopular things. Had Labour been 100-150 seats behind, he may have been given more than one bite of the cherry.

  39. @ Neil A

    Maybe you are right; perhaps Ed M will get more than one attempt. IMO, he’ll only need one – Labour has a cunning plan. ;-)

  40. Ed Milliband has no chance of becoming PM.
    a. He looks really odd,
    b. He is almost as far removed from Middle England as Gordon Brown.
    c. Everyone who has worked with him in Cabinet knows that he is hopeless. How many MPs gave him their 1st preference?
    d. Everyone knows he stabbed his own brother in the back. So no chance of loyalty.
    e. Ed Balls will be intruiging against him within 6 months at most.
    f. Cameron is the smartest political operator of his generation.

  41. The only thing I am certain off, is that if this had been a rip roaring David Milliband winning conference, then the poll tonight would be +5% Labour.

  42. @ Amber – I think DC is also taking baby Flo to conference, to hold aloft like ‘Lion King’.

  43. I am watching today at the Labour conference right now.
    What have Labour done!!!!!!!!

  44. To answer my own question – fewer than 1/3rd of the MPs/MEPs voted for him as 1st preference.

  45. Something gossipy for the reds… Jim Murphy was sent to lay into Osborne’s claims that the IMF support the Coalition strategy.

    Not Alistair, not Ed B & Yvette C. Now Jim & David are very close comrades so that could be read as Jim keeping the coast clear for David as shadow chancellor, if he wants it.

    Or, would Ed M be prepared to confound all expectations & actually consider Jim for the job?

  46. But where are all the polls which analyse the impact of the lib dem conference last week? Have there actually been any apart from the you gov ones which I am very sceptical of.

    A fascinating divergence is beginning to emerge between those on right of centre, who thik Ed’s win is a calamity for Labour; and those on the left of centre outside DM supporters who believe the complete opposite.

    Only time will tell who is right.

    p.s. I believe those in the centre are hedging their bets!

    Only time will tell who is right

  48. The boost won’t be as big as it would have been with David at the helm.

  49. @NBeale

    My point exactly — isn’t Ed M’s position extremely precarious, from day one? How is he going to subdue the rumblings of discontent, if/when the going gets tough? Without the PLP he will be a eunuch.

  50. @Eoin
    “I suspect the LDs are gonna get hit pretty bad over the next ten days”
    Well your ‘radar’ was quite accurate in predicting a sudden drop for LD during the latter days of the GE campaign.
    I think LD will be in single figures by the end of next month. I believe you have forecast single digits too but I cannot recall when you thought this might happen.

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