Is due at about 4.40pm. The last YouGov poll of Labour members and trade unionists had the Miliband brothers neck and neck. Ed Miliband was marginally ahead – but they were within the margin of error of each other and it could easily go either way (especially since MPs second preferences are still largely unknown, though Left Foot Forward have since managed to get some info from MPs backing Abbott, Balls and Burnham).

The Westminster village seems to have decided that Ed Miliband will indeed win, and the betting markets have him as heavy odds on favourite. However, there isn’t any sign of firm information (Laura Kuenssberg tweeted earlier that even Labour’s general secretary wont be told the result by ERS until 3.30pm, and ERS themselves are unlikely to leak), so it should really still be regarded as too close to call.

Feel free to use this thread to discuss the result (but please, try to stick to the comments policy and lay off the posts greeting the new leader as either the coming of the messiah or the final nail in Labour’s coffin!)

UPDATE: The result is, as everyone will now know, Ed by a whisker. That was stressful!


334 Responses to “The new Labour leader annoucement”

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  1. @ Sue

    YouGov approval minus 2. Con 39, Lab 38 Lib 15

    Nice start for Ed, better for the Libs, poor for the Tories.
    ——————————————-
    That’s a nice set of numbers for us. The Dem conference bounce has eroded Tory, not Labour, support. Not exactly what we’d been lead to expect.

    The Tory 43 was an outlier, by the looks of this. 8-)

  2. What would be really interesting as a test of unity – but something we’ll never know – is where David Milliband’s second preferences would have gone. This would be a great indicator of the degree to which the party is split… If they were all going to Ed Balls then that indicates trouble. If (like my two votes) they were going to Ed Milliband then we’re probably going to hang together.

    It would have been nice if the pollsters had thought to ask their questions in a more thorough way.

  3. Thanks all for replies, pretty much unanimous!
    And another family battle brewing it seems then if your feelings are shared. Can’t imagine an alpha like Ed B would take kindly to missing the opportunity of his favoured brief twice, once to his wife……
    I understand the support for Yvette, and the dynamics between her and GO would be very ‘interesting’

  4. Michael Crick reporting that Ed Milliband camp are saying David *has to* accept shadow chancellor post… they see no viable alternative.

  5. Well done Mrs Milliband, you must be proud although your husband may not quite love the politics. But then Tony Benn…

  6. @ Sue Marsh

    ” David set up movement for change. A way to re-engage communities in politics. He trained 1100 community leaders and at the rally the unions ALL marched in carrying their banners.”

    Presumably, these 1100 community leaders can still carry the banner for his brother.

    “Facts are what count in an argument.”

    I agree.

    I’m sorry about David Miliband losing. I was rooting for him to win……I think I curse candidates this way. So I’m sorry. :(

  7. Duncan – The votes are all online – there are links further up the thread.

    I’ve scanned them and there really is no great split anywhere. Andy’s went a little for David, Ed B’s went a little for Ed, but nothing overwhelming.

    It’s good. There are no great splits and it showed that the party is going to be pretty happy either way.

  8. Socalliberal – All the leaders agreed to support Movement for Change. Whoever won agreed to speak at the M4C rally immediately after their leadership speech, so it couldn’t show a greater commitment to what is a very exciting project.

  9. David has never overtly shown any interest in being chancellor. Does everybody agree that’s the job he’ll be asking for? 8-)

  10. Great result.Regarding the suggestion of Yvette Cooper as shadow chancellor I remember her being absolutely slaughtered by Ian Hislop on Have I Got News For You.No match for Osbourne I am afraid.

  11. The implication is that David is reluctant.

  12. Ann (in Wales) – She demolished the Blues in her post budget HoC appearances.
    She was so on top of the brief it was scary.

  13. Shadow Chancellor doesn’t seem quite right for DM to me. He seems more of an overall intellect than a figures man which is why he seemed more the natural leader to my eyes.

    Sue – it would be good to see DM somehow still take charge of the movt, for change. It seemed to really motivate him and free him on the campaign. It would be great to see him follow it through.

  14. If Ed needs his brother to be chancellor, there is no question that he would not accept. (imo)

  15. I think DM would be better at Home or Foreign Office. Or as opposite to Clegg but I guess that’s still HH’s position as deputy?

  16. @ann

    lol. A minor slip, QT surely?

    Can’t imagine YC on HIGNFY……:-)

    I think she can handle herself. I saw that QT, Hislop was on form and panelists like him with no explicit party affiliation can pan everyone as there is nothing to come back to….

  17. I always thought the Tories were supposed to be the ones who went in for family privilege and nepotism, and yet here we are with two brothers and a husband and wife team set to become major players in the Labour camp. Hilary Benn’s in there as well. And hasn’t Harriet’s husband just been elected?

    I’m not saying that the Tories don’t have equivalents, but I’m trying to point out that the political ‘class’ is becoming more closed than ever before. Sooner or later that will lead to trouble, as they become more and more out of touch.

    I noticed that in EM’s acceptance speech he said something about university students, but nothing about the majority (esp working class kids) who never get near university.

  18. There’s something very moving about them being brothers together.
    I know the media are continuously wanting to spin about splits and bitterness between them but I sense there will always be a very strong and powerful loyalty between them that bodes well for the party.

  19. @ Pete B

    I noticed that in EM’s acceptance speech he said something about university students, but nothing about the majority (esp working class kids) who never get near university.
    ——————————————————
    Working class kids were the ones he talked about; how their parents can’t afford to help them out financially & they face a future in debt, if they go to university. 8-)

  20. @Hooded Man.
    Yes,silly me,it was QT.I thought she seemed rather overwhelmed,there was someone else gunning for her as well,cant remember who it was.However I do think that Ed Balls would make a better shadow chancellor.IMHO.

  21. @woodsman
    I agree.In history brothers can be a source of enormous political support.for example the Gracchi,theCiceronesand of course in modern times ,the Kennedys.,

  22. Ann (in Wales)

    On the other hand, there are the Clintons …..

  23. Interesting; the end of New Labour. Hooray. Now moderate voters may no longer be forced to Vote Liberal but may yet be able to consider Labour as an honest alternative to slash and burn tory party.

  24. @Oldnat,
    Woodsman was discussing the role of brothers,is there a Clinton sibling we know not of?

  25. Hi,

    havn’t been on this site for some time, but had to drop in for a comment on the Labour leadership decision today. The Milliband’s both clearly have a lot of ability, but I can’t help but remember Blair talking in some recent footage when he said that ‘as soon as we move from the New Labour centre ground, I feel we are in trouble’.
    This appointment feels like a learch to the left, underpinned by the Unions rather than the MPs.
    In time, I think it will turn out to be a mistake, but only time will tell.
    rich

  26. Ann (in Wales)

    Roger Clinton – “In 2001, he was pardoned by his brother for a 1985 conviction related to cocaine for which he had served a year in jail. The pardon removed his criminal conviction from records.” (Wiki)

  27. @Oldnat,
    well,I am surprised,he certainly kept that quiet! I suppose we could probably come up with quite a few bad brothers if we think hard enough,Cain and Abel spring to mind.

  28. Maybe the chances of Ed Miliband eventually becoming PM are about the same as for David because, although David would have been more likely to win in 2015, Ed’s youth means he could lose in 2015 and still be there in 2020 to win at the second attempt.

  29. I doubt either of them could pull off an actual working overall majority. It is all to do with credibility and the appeal to middle britain. Neither of them have anything like the appeal that Blair once had in this regard.

    The only thing that might work is if the country falls down a big hole. Even that might not be enough.

  30. @ woodsman
    I agree with you re Shadow chancellor and DM – The Treasury is vital but a support role, and less of a people facing role. Competence is everything, popularity and personality less relevant.  AD and GO exemplify that to a large extent, and the disastrous transition of GB from 11 to 10 downing st reinforces it. It doesn’t seem to fit DM’s skills nor seem to benefit Labour to have him there. 
    And he would be wasted at Home Office. Its important but many others could fill that role as the govt minister in charge of that brief is completely and utterly useless in every way (I’m too embarassed to write the name…!)
     

  31. Ths sight of the brothers hugging each other was notk good. Mismatch between emotion and gesture. Doubt EM will ever recover from this moment just asWilliam Haigh’s career has never fully recovered from his ill-advised appearance at Tory conference as a teenager.

  32. @ Jack

    “Interesting; the end of New Labour. Hooray. Now moderate voters may no longer be forced to Vote Liberal but may yet be able to consider Labour as an honest alternative to slash and burn tory party.”

    Why would moderates be more inclined to vote for a party if it moves leftwards?

  33. When was the last time a Tony Benn-endorsed candidate won the Labour Leadership?

  34. Gollob wins the SGP and I have wireless in my hotel room, So:

    Eoin C (!!!)

    “By the way, there is much talk of it being close between the two brothers. i do not think it will be close. Overall, I think Ed will win by about 6%.”

    Yet *another* clanger- to add to confident assertions such as a ‘victory in all three colleges’ and ‘Brown will take Labour to largest party status the GE’.

    As I predicted on Friday a victory by less than 2% that relied on a massive vote by the Unions. But then I’ve been associated/ a member with the Labour party since the early 1980’s ;-)

    David M did better even with the ordinary foot-soldier membership than he did with MP’s!! Put that in your pace-pipe and smoke it Nostradamus :-)

    Unfortunately though I actually wish you had been right on the college- clean sweep confident assertion you kept making the last weeks.

    The fact that “neither MP’s nor members but only the brothers (sic)” elected him will be ruthlessly exploited by the ultra partisans on the Conservative side such as Osborne. You can almost hear his squeaky voice saying that very sentence.

    Ed M will now need to make the rightward turn to ”centre-left leader’ from current ‘soft-left scrappy insurgency candidate’ even quicker than I had anticipated.

    And the party- of all shades- will have to let him do it in his own way and language.

  35. @ Rob Sheffield

    Ed M will now need to make the rightward turn to ”centre-left leader’ from current ’soft-left scrappy insurgency candidate’ even quicker than I had anticipated.
    —————————————-
    He’s started that already… didn’t you hear his acceptance speech?

    Labour know how to win; the Tories don’t, the Dems don’t. Ed Miliband can reach out to the center left who don’t agree with Nick & would never vote Tory. There’s a big majority out there, just waiting for him to give them a reason to vote Labour. 8-)

  36. Rob S,

    I am glad to hear you enjoyed your car racing. Loud engines I’m sure :) (I don’t drive never will, but my sis was at the same event)/

  37. Amber- I am in Italy and out till an hour ago as meeting ended late and drive back from Udine :-)

    Just catching up though knackered- just read this on M Cricks blog- it seems strangely familiar……

    “And today’s result, effectively decided by the unions, against the wishes of Labour MPs and members, means that Ed Miliband will have shift to the Right, and away from the unions, to answer Conservative tants of ‘Red Ed’, a poodle of the unions. “

  38. Eoin

    I dont drive either: also these are ‘speedway’ *motorbikes* and- I hope you don’t think I am drawing any analogies- they have one gear and no brakes ;-)

  39. @ Rob Sheffield

    Or he could just ignore the Tory taunts & focus on the votes he needs to win. That would be a new & refreshing approach. 8-)

  40. @ Rob

    It’s not as if Cameron, Osborne or Baroness Warsi were going to vote Labour, if David won; so I think Ed M can safely ignore them. ;-)

  41. Rob S,

    I have the emotional intelligence of a plank. (some say a tree). If you were drawing an analogy you would have to spell it out loud and clear otherwise it would escape me. My strength is in analysing what a man does not say, not what he does.

    You’ll be a useful canon, one day, when your pointed in the other direction. :) As my mum taught me, all is fair in love and war. :)

  42. @ Éoin,

    I agree – point the guns at the enemy. 8-)

    @ Rob,

    One gear & no brakes – if that’s a metaphor for Ed M, I can only hope you are right! ;-)

  43. Beeb are saying on their banner that DM is to be offered CoE

  44. shadow

  45. @ Alec

    Beeb are also running a story on tax evasion clampdown. What do you make of this?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11411840

  46. @ Zeph

    I think David will be offered anything he wants, other than the leadership. And rightly so, David has huge support in the Party – whatever he chooses, he has earned it. 8-)

  47. So, polling people – what can we expect over the next week or two? Will Ed be an immediate hit with the voters or was David becoming leader priced in? 8-)

  48. Amber – Polling. David was priced in, Ed wasn’t. Most people won’t have a clue who he is and will think his voice is funny.

    David would have just started to do the job, Ed will need 6 months to a year to prove he can do the job.

    Sadly, even I found myself chuckling last night at the silliness of the choice in the eyes of the public and the Tories. Ed feels like a prefect, David feels like a Prime Minister.

    I hope he can inspire people but it will take longer and the polls may reflect that imo.

    Isn’t it funny how we barely discussed him at all here on UKPR? Even Dianne got more inches.

  49. If DM is offerred shadow chancellor than it means the basis of labour’s position will have to AD’s halving the deficit plan as that is what DM supported.
    EM was equivical about this and EB said it was too drastic.
    So the decision on the deficit reduction policy framework should come first.
    Agree with Crick EM may have to move right – in many ways Smith was more left than Kinnock in the end as the former did not have a lefty tag to dispel.

  50. Heehee, very good of Lord Ashcroft to publish a report on what Labour need to do to win. Saves us a few quid.

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