Tonight’s daily YouGov poll has topline figures of CON 43%, LAB 36%, LDEM 14% – quite a change from having the two main parties equal on 39% yesterday. Technically of course it doesn’t have to mean anything – both are within the margin of error of the average of YouGov’s recent polls which is around about CON 41% or 42%, LAB around 38% and the Lib Dems around 12%.

My guess is that part of today’s poll is probably a Lib Dem gain from conference coverage – 14% is at the top of their current range in YouGov’s polls – but that the high Tory lead is probably just a outlier. Of course, it could be the other way around, with yesterday’s 39% a piece being an outlier and this being a true reflection, but yesterday’s was at least in line with the general trend of a shrinking Tory lead. We’ll see tomorrow.


374 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – 43/36/14”

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  1. Thanks Anthony. You are the font of all psephological knowledge!

    So whichever Miliband loses as the first leader of a directly elected HoL then?

  2. John F,

    By 36% to 34% (off the top of my head) Public Sector workers in a YG poll backed blue. The poll followed the election ( a wek after, i fmy memory serves me correctly).

  3. @ John F

    Yes they will thanks to Lady Thatcher’s union legislation
    ————————————————
    This was a blessing in disguise for the union leaders (hence no repeal in 13 years of Labour government).

    Before her legislation, the unions had no power to control wild cats, secondary action etc. that they hadn’t recommended to their members. Now the unions can align their policies, actions, politics & PR.

    The unions (as opposed to some militant union members) were smart enough to find the silver lining & make good policy from poor legislation. 8-)

  4. @ Eoin

    Of course I could be wrong, but I just can’t see the people of G.B. taking to the barricades behind the leadership of “RED ED” over these cuts.

    One of the biggest groups behind such revolutionary nonsense in the past were students. However I strongly suspect that this revolutionary zeal has been tempered by the thought of being saddled with a life time loan and the fight to get a job in a very compeditive market.

  5. @John Fletcher
    ” – – – but question is how will this affect the electorate?”
    ———————–
    I agree. Maybe few people minded about some/ many folk losing their jobs – but now they are saying ” Good grief – I didn’t think you meant me !”

  6. @ Amber.

    Well at least we can both agree that the legistlation passed by my heroine Lady Thatcher was a good thing for the Unions

    ;-) ;-)

  7. John F,

    The truth is that I know as much about Red Ed as you. An entire unknown in my view. He did not get my vote but I wait to see what he does as leader. Reasonably open minded at this stage.

  8. Eoin

    Reasonably open minded at this stage.
    ________________________________

    Agreed. He could turn out to be a superb leader.

    I only started out by saying that currently the Tories will be a lot happier with Ed as leader than with Dave.

    Dave might still win anyway so perhaps we should leave all this till the weekend.

  9. Loads of ‘punters’ across the blogosphere today already counting their winnings on the leadership race: even though the ref has not blown the whistle yet !

    IMO there will be no more than 2% points between EdM and DaveM- my best *guess* less than a percentage point. Who will win? I have no idea!

    If Ed takes it it will be down to the strength in the TU section; if Dave takes it it will be down to MP’s expressing different 2nd/ 3rd preferences to those they had indicated in the last month (or- more likely- not expressing a 2nd/ 3rd preference when they had said they would.)

    I am in Italy from this evening till Tuesday taking in the Italian round of the world Individual Speedway GP (there’s working class cred for you)! If the weather does not destroy the track first….

    I’ll read with interest the weekend threads when I am back.

    Personally? I am just glad we will now be focussed on the real enemy. As I have said many times over the last two months. We have a very strong team and the policy differences between the four bloke candidates were miniscule as compared to those we have with Cameron-Osborne-Clegg :-)

  10. @ eoin

    And just to give you another chuckle I am currently preparing a Powerpoint demo on AV for our Residents Association. We are going to use it to choose our new security system from 4 alternatives. LOL

  11. Whoever wins if they create a genuine cabinet from of leadership embracing the talents and ideas of each of the candidates and others, that is not leading in a ddogmatic individulaistic way, then Labour could put a very strong opposition and alternative government forward. I think this is the key to the success of the new leader rather than the individual policy platforms.
    This certainly has been the strength of the extended election timetable. It is quite possible that either Milliband could do this.

  12. John F,

    Why don’t you do the honourable thing:

    Give them an STV demonstration and admit to them that their darling UKIP candidate would stand a chance of election under it. UKIP would prob get 3-4 candidates returned. Then contrast that with AV to show them no Green/BNP/UKIP or any other independant for that matter, stands a chance under it. :P :P With all this rackrenting and investing in banana republics, you do the Taxpayer’s Alliance proud :P

  13. @ eoin

    Why don’t you do the honourable thing:

    __________________________________________

    I consider myself doing a service to the less fortunate in society, be it those on housing benefit here, or investing in third world countries.

    If it happens to turn a profit as well then I guess I am managing to get my rewards even before I get to heaven. ;-) :D

  14. Interesting article,which suggests that Ed Miliband has been doing some internal polling. Given that ed M has commissioned YG before for a poll during this campaign, it is most likely that Ed has commissioned YG again. His camp seems pretty confident that they have delivered the grassroots and the unions. Will Straw has done some good work on Abbots, Balls and Burnham’s second preferences in the MPs section of the ballot if anyone is interested… check out his blog Left Foot Forward…

    I wonder if Anthony can confirm whether they did internal polling for Miliband junior?

    (for the article see Syndey Morning Herald- Ed’s campaign staff have Labour Australia links and provided the Sydney Herald with a running commentary)

  15. Could someone explain the process by which Lab’s candidate for London Mayor was chosen.

    Thanks

  16. @ROB SHEFFIELD
    The difference between the magnificent “four bloke candidates” (the fifth, female was surely a joke,) and Cameron/Osbourn/Clegg, is that the latter are in power and very likely to stay there until the end of the term. As usual with you and your friends predictions, the imminent colapse of capitalism and the welfare state are a tad premature. We also heard how well we would all do under the direction of the greatest chancellor of all time, when he became PM. I am begining to loose confidence in your judgement.

  17. Eoin @ JF 2.36.

    The one I was thinking of was 39 Con/38 Lab during the campaigns

  18. When are we going to know which [candidate – AW] Labour have elected as leader? It seems to have been dragging on for years, but seems to be getting close now? Hopefully?

  19. In line with the comment policy, can we please not call Ed Miliband “Red Ed”, and definitely not what Pete B just called him.

  20. Never mind which son of Marx wins the Labour leadership, what a choice for mayor. I would have thought the Tories will have more ammo regarding young Kenneth than 16 Air Assult Bde are taking to Afghanistan. A bad choice in my view. But, whilst sorry for Oona, I am glad for Boris.

  21. Roland – Indeed. That’ll make it even more embarrassing when Ken wins.

  22. Pete B – Just go to Labour.org.uk – they have a countdown!!

    Currently 22 hours, 59 minutes and 2 seconds…..

  23. As a neutral in this blue-red debacle, the selection of Ken does seem a retrograde step. He might still end up as mayor again (although this is more likely to be if Boris loses it (or more likely has it lost for him by his pals Dave and George) than by Ken winning it). Hard to see this as the selection of a party looking to the future and trying to redefine itself.

  24. @SUE MARSH
    As I said, I am loosing confidence in left wing projections and predictions.

    @TONYOTIM
    Yes, thats a nice non-partisan way of saying what I mean.

  25. The latest research seems to suggest that “same sex”
    urges apply to about 1% of the population. In the light of this revelation (rather than the 7 or 8 % previously thought) do posters think that the amount of time, money and propaganda has been grossly excessive regarding homosexuality & bisexuality?

  26. @ Roland.

    The latest research seems to suggest that “same sex”
    urges apply to about 1% of the population

    _________________________________________

    All the more reason to get rid of the Equalities Quangos. :D

  27. Only 1% have “same sex” urges?

    I’d have thought it would be very much higher, possibly 100%.

    Surely there are not many who want to change their sex?

  28. I think I tend to agree with this NewStatesman article:

    ht tp://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/the-staggers/2010/09/boris-ken-mayor-labour-tory

    I believe Ken was the wrong choice even if I truly love the guy. I can’t see him win. Winning the London Mayorship would have been a great way to really ruffle some tory feathers.

    The many articles regarding Lab and the South are also very indicative and the next Lab leader will have to do all he can to correct this. Whilst I wholeheartedly believe that David would have been Labs best bet to win again, Ed can do it none the less. If Ed does win however he has to quickly move to the center-left side of the spectrum and lose the ‘RED ED’ title. Whilst we Labs love it, the neutral voter out there doesn’t. Its tantamount to calling someone Thatcherite. Regardless what party faithfuls think about their pasts, the voter that matters does not warm up to what can be viewed as either parties’ extremes.

    I was miles away from Blair ideologically but the man did have method to his madness. Unlearning those lessons (which Cam has learnt himself, hence the ‘heir to Blair’ title) will be to Labs detriment.

  29. @Roland

    I’d probably urge some caution to those research findings for two reasons:

    1). There is probably still some reluctance for some to admit their sexuality in a survey.

    2). From the reporting I saw, people were asked to pick one label to apply to themselves, whereas most experts (from Kinsey onwards) have seen sexuality as existing on some kind of spectrum.

  30. TONYOTIM

    “sexuality as existing on some kind of spectrum.”

    A rainbow?

  31. @OldNat

    There are different versions of it. The original (i think) was the Kinsey scale which was a 7 point scale ranging from exclusively heterosexual to exclusively homosexual and his research indicated that most people were somewhere in between.

  32. Just saw AWs article for YG. Great artcile Anthony, I agree completely.

    ht tp://today.yougov.co.uk/commentaries/stephan-shakespeare/labour%E2%80%99s-southern-problem

  33. @ Roland

    Hmm, I suspect you are leg-pulling…..
    But the fair treatment and understanding of any ‘minority’ group is to be welcomed, surely not?
    The disabled probably account for 0.0x% yet you wouldn’t suggest we deem time and money spent on promoting their rights as wasted?

  34. How many disappointed Tories and scandalised Lib Dems, will be very happy that their homes are not being revalued for the purposes of increased Council Tax. I cannot help thinking that the few hundred Labour supporters across the country who own their own houses could always contribute to a charity to make up for the opportunity help the poor.

  35. @ Tonyotim

    ” Hard to see this as the selection of a party looking to the future and trying to redefine itself.”

    I could not believe it when I heard the news-hence my interest in understanding the group who made that choice.

    Looks like a similar electorate to the one about to choose EM.

  36. @HOODED MAN
    I suggest you pull your hood up. The day I see people who are disabled enjoying the support and care reserved for homosexuals, is the day I vote Socialist Worker.

  37. I’m a big fan of Ken Livingston. I reckon he can win it; he was Labour’s choice by 69% v Oona’s 31%.
    Win or lose, he’s our choice & we should back him 100%.

    I feel the same about the Labour leader. I’m with Sue, the real story will be the shadow cabinet. Who will be on the list; how will the new leader deploy them?

    It’s like the Celtics (or the Gunners) having a new manager, who then must build his team from the existing pool + a few choices of his own.

    Here’s a challenge for anybody with too much time on their hands: Imagine the cabinet (& or the shadow cabinet) is a football team. Cabinet job = which footie position; & who should be in the starting line up?

    Come on people, somebody must want to have a go at it. ;-)

  38. @ Roland

    “How many disappointed Tories and scandalised Lib Dems, will be very happy”

    The Tories will be very happy Roland, and drinking a toast to that splendid working class lad Eric Pickles.

    The Lib Dems will be dreadfully tested-caught between the gritted teeth of a small cheer for Eric, and the shame & disgrace of admitting to membership of the middle class petty bourgeoisie.

  39. I agree with Amber, because with Gods grace they will be the shadow cabinet for a very long time.

  40. @COLIN
    Poor souls!

  41. Ladbrokes odds for next Lab Leader:-

    Ed Milliband 4-7
    David Milliband 5-4
    Andy Burnham 100-1
    Ed Balls 100-1
    Diane Abbott 150-1

    Interestingly the same bookie offers odds on the next Tory leader:-

    Boris Johnson 4-1
    Michael Gove 5-1
    George Osborne 8-1
    William Hague 10-1
    Liam Fox 14-1

    Vote Clegg get Boris ? :)

  42. @ Roland

    The latest research seems to suggest that “same sex”
    urges apply to about 1% of the population. In the light of this revelation (rather than the 7 or 8 % previously thought) do posters think that the amount of time, money and propaganda has been grossly excessive regarding homosexuality & bisexuality?
    —————————————————
    That amount of money, time etc. reflects the % of gay & bi-sexual people in positions of influence, not in the general population.

    They are less likely to be devoting their time to raising a family & therefore have the time & energy to pursue careers in the media, politics & high profile areas of business (music, fashion, TV etc.)

    Has it occurred to you, they’re the ones running the country, Roland? Some openly & some exerting their influence from inside the closet. ;-)

  43. Just looking at last night’s local election results, what happened at Teignbridge?

    I quote from The Independant

    Tories and Liberal Democrats swapped seats with each other in the latest council by-elections but the vote share surge was to Labour on the eve of its conference and the declaration of a new leader.

    Analysis of four comparable results suggests it has a projected 5% nationwide lead over Conservatives.

    Lib Dem Alistair Dewhirst won a landslide victory against Tories at Ipplepen, Teignbridge District, Devon, on a 34.5% swing.

    The by-election was caused by the death of the authority’s longest-serving councillor, 87-year-old Vic Elliott, after a tractor accident on his farm.

    Tory John McGrory gained at Gosforth Valley, North East Derbyshire District, in a tight three-cornered fight which saw Labour pip Lib Dems for second place.

    Big swings to Labour in two of its Gateshead strongholds could spell bad news for Liberal Democrats who are defending control of Newcastle – just across the Tyne – in next May’s elections.

    The turnout in Teignbridge was 58%. That is stupendous for a Local Election…

  44. @ Roland
    ‘The day I see people who are disabled enjoying the support and care reserved for homosexuals, is the day I vote Socialist Worker.’

    Support and care?!
    Not my point, I presumed your ‘propaganda’ was a reference to rights?
    Homosexuals are not looking for ‘support and care’…..

  45. Colin,

    The electoral reform society carried it out. The vote was worked out much the same way as the leadership i am told. I take that to mean 1/3 TU 1/3 Party 1/3MPs. If that is the case, non-Londoners got a say, which seems odd. That is the best I can do I am afraid….. Maybe Amber can shed more light?

    It is welcome that ed’s moniker is to be banned from the site. :)

  46. Colin,

    The electoral reform society carried it out. The vote was worked out much the same way as the leadership i am told. I take that to mean 1/3 TU 1/3 Party 1/3MPs. If that is the case, non-Londoners got a say, which seems odd. That is the best I can do I am afraid….. Maybe Amber can shed more light?

    It is welcome that ed’s moniker is not to be welcomed on the site.

  47. Thanks Eoin

    I don’t know why -but I am constantly surprised at Labour’s Byzantine version of internal party democracy

  48. Men who call themselves straight have been known to get urges and the sound of a voice, animation characters, clothing materials and squashed rose petals. That is the tip of the iceberg. The point I am making is that the main sexual organ is the brain not the genitals. Why on earth we reduce sexuality to penis and vagina (or any other entrance or exit strategy) is beyond me. S.J. Smith studied more than 200 languages and concluded that we have between 3-20 genders not simply two. What we consider normal/abnormal is very limited.

  49. @ Colin

    There was an electoral college with 50% of the votes being decided by the individual votes of Party members in London and with the other 50% being determined by the votes of the members of trade unions and other organisations affiliated to the London Labour Party.

    I hope that is enough information, if not let me know & I’ll post some more details. 8-)

  50. I read it was just two colleges so 1/2 tu 1/2 members but same system

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