Tonight’s daily YouGov poll has topline figures of CON 43%, LAB 36%, LDEM 14% – quite a change from having the two main parties equal on 39% yesterday. Technically of course it doesn’t have to mean anything – both are within the margin of error of the average of YouGov’s recent polls which is around about CON 41% or 42%, LAB around 38% and the Lib Dems around 12%.

My guess is that part of today’s poll is probably a Lib Dem gain from conference coverage – 14% is at the top of their current range in YouGov’s polls – but that the high Tory lead is probably just a outlier. Of course, it could be the other way around, with yesterday’s 39% a piece being an outlier and this being a true reflection, but yesterday’s was at least in line with the general trend of a shrinking Tory lead. We’ll see tomorrow.


374 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – 43/36/14”

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  1. It is rather odd, but it will make the conference season interesting. I suspect it will prove out of line with contemporaneous polls.

  2. Not surprising. Labour will not overtake the Tories for a while.

  3. I think Anthony is right, this does feel out of line with the recent and well established trend. Labour will over take the tories either later this week or next week with conference boost.

  4. The Lib Dems will be up in the next batch of polls..it takes a bit of time to seep through but it’ll happen

  5. Tory Conference approaching. I think the Liberal Democrats demolished Labour with Cleggs speech. With the attacks on the banks today being on the side with the majority of people. Labour will get short term boost, but when Tory conference comes along its their chance to show the country the cuts are needed, demolish Labour and take Labour vote. Government improvement is trending upwards. So I think yesterday was the outlier.

  6. Government approval*

  7. Twitter has two figures quoted and the most recent one puts Labour at 39% , the Con/LD’S the same and seems to correspond to the Yougov graph, however the others look a bit higher than 4% which they would have to be. So wondering which is correct and if others are so low must be an outliner.

  8. I prefer this poll so it must be right.

  9. Yes I note LD zooming upwards. After Vince’s victory over a confused press, I expect onwards and upwards now.

    Looks more like an outlier actually.

  10. Blimey! (Again!)

    Which one’s the outlier then?

    Con boost from Lib conference at expense of Lab?

    Work that one out!!

  11. James – the 36% is definitely correct. The other tweet (and the graph) are wrong.

  12. One could rationalise. How;’s about undecided soft Tories, worried about uncertain LD commitment to coalition, breathing a sigh of relief after splits don’t happen at LD conference and feeling comfortable enough to stick with blue.

  13. On reflection, I think Howard may be on to something. It has been speculated that the Vince-the-Hammer-of-the-Bankers speech was a calculated populist device and it may well be we are seeing a small spike for both Coalition parties because “their” man (the electorate at large probably don’t care which party he’s from – he’s just a minister in the government to them) is poking the fat cats with a stick.

    Either way, it’s a fart in a hurricane. The news will soon enough turn to talk of cuts again, and the public will feel scared and vulnerable and look longingly towards Santa Claus all dressed in Red.

  14. Sue

    “Con boost from Lib conference at expense of Lab?”

    Judging by the behaviour of these three parties at Holyrood today, that should be no surprise. They all act the same.

  15. Amended post

    Neil A

    “Santa Claus all dressed in Red.”

    Coca-Cola – it’s the real thing (and the origin of a red not green Santa)

    Though alas laden with caffeine, so probably to be banned by Labour.

  16. In conference season others take a hit. In this instance they have lost 2% overnight. That is the equivalent of 1/2 of SNP and Greens and BNP all switching.

    Not really likely eh?

    Blues will be happy. Even if this is an outlier it restores some comfort that there is less of a downward spiral…
    _____________________

    One other possibility that might consider… Would some voters see a good speech by Clegg (if indeed it was a good speech) as a reason to give the coalition ‘another chance’. And if so, does that other chance, mean give cameron another chance? Ever good deed by yellow might inadvertantly boost cameron, and therefore lift blues.

    Perhaps a sense that the votes at least treat Cameron/Clegg as synonomous. If they look the same, smell the same, and talk the same :) Then they must be the….

  17. @anthony thanks, does make more sense! Possibly both coalition parties gaining slightly, though opinion can be ficke in the conference season and we are in interesting times.

  18. Thank god is all I can say. Lefties not saying much tonight:O

  19. vince lays into the bankers and the blues get an 8 point lead. very illogical

    i wonder what will happen when a blue minester lays into europe, will the libdems gain 4 points at the reds expence

  20. Eoin

    “If they look the same, smell the same, and talk the same”

    You will insist on talking about the Lab/Con/LD coalescence at Hoyrood! :-)

  21. Check my post on the last thread; I already was speculating that Tories would be in the lead again before YG released the numbers.

    This is a recurring theme. Labour almost catch up & Tories bounce; then the trend of Labour rising re-establishes itself.

    We shall see what the weekend polls bring. 8-)

  22. old nat

    has someone stolen your coffee

  23. OldNat,

    Lol, I am not a million miles in disagreement with you. But I have high hopes that an Ed M win will unleash a left wing manifesto on the Scottish public. As soon as this contest is out of the way, I’ll be harping on about Labour Scotland’s Manifesto to include tax raising powers and the right to give unlimited fines to their regulatory bodies. Gas, water, oil, we’re coming to get you! :) Lets ee how Alexander Salmon deals with that one :P :P :P

  24. Quite odd, most recent polls give Labour 37-39%, lets say about 38%.

    then again, it’s only 2%. Probably rock bottom of Labour support at the moment.

  25. Keith,

    About 40/38/14 feels right based upon the stack of polls we have had. Labour’s conf. we prob reverse blue and red only for blue to creep back in front again. The worry is with yellow. any party heaving a sigh of relief after Vince’s rallying cry on a mere 14% must be consuming the same stuff as Cleggie.

  26. richard in norway

    Shhh!

    Don’t tell Labour that I use that drug!

    Barney and Amber will have me locked up!

  27. Eoin Clarke

    “Labour Scotland’s Manifesto to include tax raising powers”

    That won’t be on anyone’s agenda till 2015, I think. But it will be fascinating to see if anyone suggests increasing the basic rate of Income Tax in Scotland to pay for increased services.

    Since the proposal is designed to give only the veneer of financial autonomy (as opposed to real power over the economy) I would doubt it.

  28. Richard in Norway:

    What do people in Norway think of the Swedish election result?

  29. OldNat,

    A veneer in good times yes… but in bad times a stop gap to a Geddes Axe. I think it is on the agenda right this very moment.

    Question is: what do the voters think? A 2p rise on income tax- or Osborne the Terrible?

  30. Eoin

    But the size of the Scottish Block Grant is decided in Westminster. We have seen nothing yet to allay fears that the consequence of an income tax rise in Scotland would simply be a reduction in the Block Grant.

    The attitude of the Treasury to the suggestion that Scottish Water be privatised is warning enough. The monies raised from such an asset stripping would go to them, not the Scottish Budget.

  31. Could this lead to the ousting of Harriet Harman as Labour Leader?

    Oh wait….

  32. andy JS

    it has the right wing worried, i’ve heard a lot from them about how their imigration polices should not be confused with the neo’s in sweden

    the problem the right has is that the moderate right has to be more careful now when doing deals with the more right wing parties, they don’t want to lose votes to the left

    but the more right wing parties have a different problem. having released the imigration genie, they thought that they had the right of politics stitched up but now they realize that they have created space for the neo-nåzi’s who don’t share their free market fundamentalist ideas(the ideas that they do not always share with the voters). if they become more immigrant hostile they can’t do deals with the moderates and won’t get in to govt, but in reaching out to the center they run the risk of the neo’s stealing their base

    it is certainly fun to hear a very immigrant hostile party leader warning people to stay away from the neo’s because they are råsists

    anyway good night all

  33. @ Old Nat

    Barney and Amber will have me locked up!
    ————————————–
    You aren’t already? ;-)

  34. Could be normal fluctuations, but we’ll see.
    I think we could see some polls showing Labour slightly ahead soon,
    then the Tories (I assume last) get their customary chance to reply.

    The Lib Dems look as though they are trying to be in government and opposition at the same time.

  35. Amber

    :-)

  36. I increasingly here Lib Dems, such as Chris Huhne, emphasising that the coalition agreement is only for one Parliament, then they would look at the situation entirely afresh.

    I think this actually helps the Tories, because they can warn wavering Con/LD voters that they still need to vote Conservative to be sure of having a Con led government.

  37. It may disappoint Cameron though, and some of those who are actual enthusiasts for the coalition.

    I suspect they would seek to keep the Lib Dems on board even if they won an overall majority – unless it was a substantial one to withstand backbench defeats etc.

  38. prediction time: the biggest lead between Lab & Cons won’t be more than 5% between now and christmas.
    I expect effectively neck and neck, with some jostling, for a while

    It’s just that spending cuts and impending tax rises will loom ever larger, eroding the Conservative lead, and nobody else will have any better ideas about what to do instead.

  39. I suspect Labour will have trouble extending their lead if they don’t come up with something a bit more convincing that any cut is a nasty Tory cut.

    The Lib Dems are leaking votes to Labour – no question about that, but the Tories are still up against May.

  40. There will be wobbles.
    If the LDs are still limping in the polls – whether it’s 15 or 11,
    and they lose the AV vote,
    and one of the Milibands offers them better terms, but I am strongly of the view the coalition will run it’s course.

    On the polls, I’d expect a fairly similar trajectory to 1979-80, with Labour leads next year most of the time.

  41. Now that the LD conference is, as far as the coalition is concerned, safely (apart from St Vince’s outburst), I am asking myself how many of the non tribal electorate will be interested in the Lab party conference and how much this will affect the polls.

    Yes there will be a new leader but everyone knows it will be a Milliband and to the general public they are pretty indistingushable.

    There can be no policy announcements because there is as yet no policy.

    The best they can and will do is continue to deride every “tory” cut and pour bile upon the LD’s as traitors to the progressive cause, but all this is just becomming background white noise.

    Everyone knows there must be defecit reduction. Even the Lab party knows this, but until they come up with some Positive suggestions they will IMO make little progress in the polls.

    On the other hand the Cons conference could, if well managed provide a continued boost to their poll standings. They must avoid any triumphalisum and continue with the “we are all in it together theme”. Providing they can show there is a real chance of returning to better times I fully expect them to be ahead in the polls at the end of the conference season.

  42. Need to wait until after all the Conferences.

    My guess is still a gap of 5 points or so between Con & Lab-then steadily eroded after the CSR detail.

    How much support Cons lose is down to them.

    Everyone is now used to the Labour mantra of “No Cuts”. That can only change to “different cuts”.

    So the Con message with the CSR is critical. Clegg did the right thing in his speech-giving numbers-emphasising Debt Interest. DC / GO must do the same. If phasing is as in the Red Book, then the immediate effect may come as a relief.

    Also-I know GO is busy-but he has been very quiet-he does political strategy as well as Budgets ;-)

    Head down till November-then see how it looks.

  43. @ Colin

    Need to wait until after all the Conferences.
    ________________________________________

    As so often Colin, we are in agreement.

    I was just wondering that since the LD conference generally speeking has been so responsible and pro- coalition, is it possible that the Tories, as the senior partners in the coalition might, perversely, be reaping the rewards in the polls for the LD’s good behavior?

  44. Police (locally) announce cuts: 15% of frontline officers and 20% of support staff (500 + 550 jobs to go).
    Will this come to be seen as the Big unsafe Society?

  45. @billy bob
    i suppose that all depends on if your walking through a rally….and someone pushes you over….
    i hear police the word safety never rings in my head

  46. Billy Bob – I read an article about the changes to HB yesterday (Guardian though, so I refrained from posting it)

    Very scary indeed.

  47. Bullman and Billy Bob should like this article then.

    h ttp://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/police-retreating-from-the-streets-2087367.html

  48. hmmm cant say im surprised at that really.and there quite right about avoiding certain streets at night…i have logged in my head where to stay away from when im walking my young boy.
    but sadly its not just anti social behaviour they fail in.i was burgled twice 10 years ago and even when i gathered the evidence(the fool dropped his wallet in my house) they didnt do anything about it.
    but when it came to a certain rubbish bag which had been thrown out on the street by my wifes ex which contained some of her mail(apparantly this is the most incriminating evidence of all)….the police where all over her like a rash.of course the courts saw sense but hey….they could have been doing something much more productive.

  49. The implication of a population equivalent to a ‘new town’ being evicted from central London (due to HB changes): lower rent will be more than offset by higher travelling costs. So what will the coalition do? Increase tax thresholds *and* the minimum wage? (Or perhaps office workers can be persuaded to stay after work to clean up the mess.)

    Abolishing ASBOs… presumably other care services will take up the slack, except that they will be facing even harsher cuts than the Police.

  50. I’m beginning to reconsider the matter of addiction. When you look at the the mood swings; the neglect of family while searching for the next fix; the withdrawal when things go badly; the manic outpouring of words when things go well; the jittery waiting until the next dose arrives; the endless excitability.

    Yes these daily polls are definitely getting too much for some people.

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