YouGov’s daily poll tonight has topline figures of CON 39%, LAB 39%, LDEM 13%. Other than a couple of polls straight after the general election, this is the first YouGov poll since the election to show the Conservatives below 40 since the coalition was formed and it makes YouGov the third pollster to show the parties neck and neck.

This is a continuation of the trend of a falling Conservative lead that we’ve seen throughout the summer. My guess is that we’ll almost certainly see a Labour lead in the polls during their conference next week (with the polls this close we may see one before that), though it may well disappear straight afterwards if the Conservatives get their own boost. To some extent it’s irrelevant anyway, whatever the standing in the polls at the beginning of October, we are rapidly heading towards the spending review and the point where the surprisingly popular abstract cuts that George Osborne announced in the budget are replaced with specific cuts that are less likely to go down positively. Once we get past that I’d expect some solid Labour leads in the polls.

On the subject of the economy and the spending cuts, YouGov’s trackers on the cuts this month have also shown some significant changes. For the first time, a plurality of respondents thought the cuts will be bad for the economy (by 43% to 40% who think they will be good – compare this to straight after the budget when 53% thought they would be good and only 28% bad). Also for the first time a majority (51%) also think the cuts are being done unfairly, compared to only 30% who think they are fair. That said, people are still more likely to blame the last Labour government for the cuts than the current government – 44% blame Labour the most, compared to only 21% blaming the coalition the most (22% blame them both).


320 Responses to “YouGov have Conservatives and Labour equal on 39%”

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  1. Blimey! (Again!)

    Which one’s the outlier then?

    Con boost from Lib conference at expense of Lab?

    Work that one out!!

  2. @SUE MARSH

    An impossible ask.

  3. @Richard In Norway,

    That “90% of policework” figure sounds like one of the 97.33% of statistics that are made up on the spot (ie “90% meaning just A Lot). Obviously drink is a major factor in violent offending including, up to a point, sexual violence. It is also a big factor in child neglect cases. It would be pretty hard to calculate the actual effect of the drink however, as many of these crimes might have happened anyway (people who drink to excess tend to be the ones who are prone to anti-social behaviour even when sober in my experience).

    Having said all that I was very much in favour of minimum pricing for alcohol and was looking forward to the Scots experiment to see if it could lead to a wider application. Party politics is a drag sometimes, sadly.

    @Virgilio,

    To a liberal Tory like me some of the recent developments in France and Italy (from where I have just returned from a very lovely two weeks touring) are most disconcerting. I often find it hard to identify with the continental Right, as they seem far too extreme for me on social issues and far too corporatist/ Keynesian/ downright corrupt on economic issues. I am pretty sure that if I lived on the continent I would align with a liberal party rather than a conservative one. To use the law to dictate what women wear on their heads sounds pretty Iranian to me. And as for Silvio and his “deport all the Romanies, even the Italian ones” nonsense!

    @Oldnat,

    Speaking as an ethnic half-Viking who is 97.33% teetotal and wouldn’t dream of raping anyone, I am deeply offended… I blame the good monks of my own county for making more Buckie than the market can stand. (Or at least more than the market can stand up having consumed).

  4. Both outlying I should think. LDs with a small conf boost is legit, but still feels like a 41, 38, 14 scenario is more credible for current situation. Didn’t believe last nights, don’t believe tonight’s!

  5. @Sue,

    The pattern’s pretty clear. This “boost” is just the oscillation I think. You can count on pulling ahead fairly soon.

    I suppose with the unusual state of affairs that we are currently facing, it is just about possible that the LibDem conference managing to boost the Tories instead of themselves (after all, how many of the electorate really understand the intricacies of this government, and differentiate between Dave and Nick), but I think it’s just noise. The Tory lead is around 4% and shrinking.

  6. Neil A

    Sad to see a good liberal Tory swallowing (pun intended) Labour’s line on caffeine being the problem.

    If you were in Scotland, you could happily describe yourself as a labour liberal Tory.

  7. Hooded Man – I think this year I’d believe anything politically.

  8. Oldnat.

    If I were a Scot I suspect I’d be an SNP-Liberal Tory. I doubt that I’d be a Labour anything in any parallel universe I could conceive of.

    Although, isn’t there some Caribbean country where the “Labour Party” is actually the right wing one?

  9. @ sue
    yup, it’s been a barnstormer! And we haven’t even got through conferences yet, leader results, etc.!

    Balls for leader is a leap too far though…. ;-)

  10. Neil A

    “isn’t there some Caribbean country where the “Labour Party” is actually the right wing one?”

    Ah! You might have been confused by the palm trees along the sea front in Largs. We aren’t in the Caribbean.

  11. @Oldnat,

    There are a number of countries around the world I might confuse with fair Alba. None of them are in the Caribbean.

  12. I observe a lot of tories increasingly refer to themselves as compassionate or liberal or democrat tory. Discourse analysis says that they are a) reaching out to their fellow LDs b) reckon Cameron to be plotting a centrist course.

    Whatever the reason, it is an eminently welcome development….

    ____________

    Roger,

    When ROI rejoin the Commonwealth, you can all have a vote in the Dáil Éireann. How is that? Roger Mexico for Aras an Uachtaráin?

  13. Largs and Jamaica are virtually indistinguishable having been to both….
    Neil a, the Jamaican Labout Party is right wing
    The locals will tell you though it is still left of TB…. ;-)

  14. Neil A,

    The Irish Labour Party are quite right. It is one of the reasons I chose their British equivalent

  15. @ Roger Mexico

    Two things:

    1. Pardon my ignorance but is voter registration mandatory in the UK?

    2. Would Workingclasston neccessarily be a higher turnout constituency than Chelski? It’s been my observation that the wealthier Congressional Districts in the U.S. always have turnout that dwarfs turnouts in neighboring poor Districts. There are safe Republican Districts where the losing Democratic candidate receives more votes than the winning Democrat next door in safe Democratic seat.

    If counting by population, wouldn’t those in charge of drawing boundaries take into account only actual citizens? So let’s say I had the money and buy some fabulous condo in Knightsbridge (sadly I don’t, lol) and I am living in it half the year and living in the U.S. the other half….I’m not a citizen, I can’t vote, and presumably I’m not going to be counted for purposes of redistricting.

    You know it’s kinda funny to think about, no one is required to register to vote (or to vote) in the U.S. I’m sure there’s an argument that such a requirement would be unconstitutional. But I don’t think there’s any direct case authority on this. There’s plenty of case law on attempts to prevent voters from registering. I can’t imagine the opposite.

  16. Just read through the posts…

    Roger Mexico @6.50pm.
    I respectfully suggest that the example/scenario you gave is absurd.
    An observation: whatever the number of regsisterd voters each vote has the same value as any other vote across the UK IMO.
    (I might be misunderstanding your comments re slaves in the USA dueing the civil war being accorded lower status for voting purposes etc, but it seems to me now that this supports the argument that everyone should be counted and treated the same.)

    @Howard (and others)
    If we were already using population as the determinant for boundaries, consider what cogent argument(s) you could put forward to justify moving to using registered voters as the determinant. In what way(s) would using registered voters be fairer and more equitable?

  17. @Neil A
    If my memory serves me, I recall that you were off to Italy for your honeymoon?

    Your views on Italy?

  18. @Mike N,

    Yep, two weeks in Italy spread between Rome, Tuscany, Verona/Lake Garda and Venice.

    Wonderful country. Very welcoming people. Fantastic ice cream. Very expensive soft drinks (cheaper to drink wine or beer than cola). More mountainous than I’d realised (no wonder it took so long to unify the place). Almost everyone could muddle through in basic English (I hadn’t expected that). Bad roads. Lax planning laws. Complete disregard for road safety. More historic buildings in one city than the UK has in the whole country (putting my disdain for American “heritage-less-ness” into sharp perspective). Huge numbers of assorted police who were on the whole scruffy, and didn’t appear to be doing very much.

    Marvellous. Would definitely go again.

  19. @Neil A

    You’ve described Italy perfectly!

  20. Barney Crockett

    “Most will have voted Conservative (and Unionist) in every election for decades. Where are they going?”

    The crematorium.

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