Two polls tonight. First YouGov’s regular daily poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 42%, LAB 37%, LDEM 13%. The Government’s net approval rating is nil – 40% approve and 40% disapprove.

Secondly there is a ComRes poll, with significantly different figures. They have topline figures of CON 38%(-1), LAB 34%(+1), LDEM 18%(+3). This is a much higher level of Lib Dem support than YouGov are showing, up from 15% in ComRes’s last poll, apparenly at the expense of “others”. Interestingly enough, ComRes’s press release says that the proportion of Lib Dem 2010 voters who have defected to Labour has risen from 15% a month ago to 22% now, which is rather odd given the rise in overall support – presumably they have picked up enough support elsewhere to cancel it out.


121 Responses to “New YouGov and ComRes polls”

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  1. I just cant believe how long it has taken.

    The Australian comparison is interesting; the head of the Parliamentary Labor party is solely elected by the parliamentary party. Simple. Head of the Labor party is a separate job and voted for by others.

    What makes a good parliamentarian – and by implication good pm – is, in my opinion, best left to those who really know the skills required. Parliamentarians.

    Equally why should not a good party person not a parliamentarian be not able to lead the Labor Party outside of parliament?

    And that way the headless chicken which has been the Labour Party here for the last 6 months would not have happened.

  2. I am all alone on the new thread

  3. Eoin

    That 7% struck me as a bit odd too – but they can’t be shy Lib Dems because they’re prepared to admit voting Lib Dem today!

    The query I had wasn’t about the actual rate. ComRes said The proportion of Liberal Democrat voters who say they would now vote Labour has risen from 15 to 22 per cent since last month. A further seven per cent would switch to the Tories.

    I get the figures to be August 31/161 = 19%; September 28/162 = 17%; to Tories 6%.

    I think these are the figures after squeezing – I just wondered where they got their figures in the press release from.

    Incidentally the interesting thing about these charts is that Labour retention rate of GE voters (69%) isn’t much higher than the Lib Dem’s (65%). There’s obviously a lot of flux between the non-Tory Parties and it isn’t all the way people think it is.

    All this of course comes with the usual warnings about the small sample sizes and my belief that ComRes may “over-squeeze”

  4. @Jack

    Yes, yes and yes.
    Labour was seen as too dominated by the union block vote at one time, but John Sith’s reform of the voting system leaves a lot to be desired imo.

  5. Cast my third (Fabian Society) leadership vote this morning. All three have gone to Ed Balls. For me the deciding factor has been who I believe will make the most effective opposition leader. I think policy discussions are somewhat premature since I am hoping that the membership will have some involvement in writing our next manifesto.

    As to the NEC, is it immodest to plug my own aspirations?

  6. @ Julian

    Looks like you are through moderation so so far so good. But that would be up to Anthony.

    I’ve already voted, but would be genuinely interested in your views on the environment all the same.

  7. Julian,

    If your inclined towards EB you cant be all bad. I’ll give you one of my votes for the NEC.

  8. @ Julian

    “Cast my third (Fabian Society) leadership vote this morning. All three have gone to Ed Balls. For me the deciding factor has been who I believe will make the most effective opposition leader. I think policy discussions are somewhat premature since I am hoping that the membership will have some involvement in writing our next manifesto.”

    I couldn’t agree more.

  9. Zeph

    Acutely aware that this is a non-partisan site, can I direct you to this? – http://warelane.wordpress.com/2010/06/11/nec-statement-%e2%80%93-julian-ware-lane/

    I would be happy to set out my green credentials, but I am not sure anyone else on here would appreciate it.

    Perhaps on topic, here I have discussed the leader of the opposition role – http://warelane.wordpress.com/2010/08/12/leader-of-the-opposition/

  10. @BILLY BOB
    You are most welcome BB.
    I am not sure my perception works with the ladies on site. Sue seems a jolly soul who could easily be a cavaliers sweetheart. Amber also seems to have a happy personality, but the Scottish view of the civil war was very different to the English one. Amounst the males I can deduce who would be riding with wartface, and who with Prince Rupert. I of course as an ex Sapper, would likely have been a Dutch or German mercenary serving the highest bidder.

  11. @ Eoin @12:31

    “Never ebfore have the UK people been more unified on policy.”

    Very true, although only at almost an instict level. An interesting conjucture of self-experience (if a household overspends, it has to pull the trouser belt a bit), expert messages (OK, TV experts), political indifference (spot the difference, but we don’t take responsibility for your eyesight).

    Ask the question: is it right that in a growing number of English schools kitchen staff were laid off and children can have only a grab and pay lunch and teaching assistants were laid off so that the School can call itself “mildly in operation”. Do you think the unified opnion would still hold?

    I strongly disagree and agree :-) (depending on the interpretation) with Cozmo’s point about the Churchillian parallel. If the book “The people’s war” could be believed, there were massive disagreements behind the unified front of the British people. One could argue that behind WW2 a classwar went on in the UK.

  12. @LASZLO
    You never typed a truer word my friend. The usual suspects went on strike during the war and Churchill’s choice of the great Ernest Bevin to handle these problems was key. Morrison was considered a “bloody nuisance” due to his lack of confidence in the British people to face peril. Operation Barbarossa was a very effective way of getting the dockers and miners to work. Bet the Fuhrer never thought of that.

  13. Lazlo,

    I agree with Roland.

    YG had a poll shortly after the coalition’s formation. More PUBLIC (sorry for caps) sector workers supported blue than red.. 34% to 32% or something like that…

    False consciousness has a lot to answer for. And to think I thought an organic crisis was in the offing when Northern Rock went under…

    The wannabe middle class now think they have a greater interest in the success of the capitalist system than vice versa…

    The ‘eventual triumph’ was theirs – not ours.

    Gramsci and the rest would be turning in their grave.

  14. Perhaps it’s late as the next subject is going on with full steam.

    @ Roland

    Yes, it is the point. I have the misfortune of having to read the CP documents of the period. You are correct.

    @ Eoin

    Living in Liverpool gives you the pleasure, displeasure that you find the most examplary semi-skilled working class people who have never voted anything but Tories and absolutely hate Labour. Labour manages this city in general elections (but apart from this year not the council for some time) because of the public employees and the skilled working class (as opposed to the skilled self-employed). This combined with the strong influence with the Catholic Church (although if you scratch their cathecism, you won’t find the Vatican there) creates an interesting combination.

    Many, many years ago, my father in law bought the “socialist rag” from my wife, as he felt he had to support his daughter and because just things were there, but never read it.

  15. Laslzo,

    I know that feeling. I sold An Phoblacht for a decade and barely got past the front page. Robotic activism :(

  16. @ Eoin

    Interesting paper – the diction, the syntax, the style cannot be distinguished from the paper I kind of mentioned.

  17. Howard,

    Good question.

    this is a July poll of Union memebrs… (YG)

    h ttp://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/YG-Pol-Sun-LabTUmembers-290710.pdf

    DM does well but not as well as he does in other categories (MPs/ party memebrship) Also- a lot has happened since July (Mandy & Blair).

  18. Julian Ware-Lane – Three votes? Are you an MP?

  19. @ Sue

    I noticed that Labour’s FAQ explains that members of multiple affiliated organisations get multiple votes :-)

    But they have to pay multiple subs :-(

  20. 1, An ordinary member
    2, Unite the union
    3, Fabian Society

  21. Zeph @ Sue

    “……members of multiple affiliated organisations get multiple votes But they have to pay multiple subs.”

    “What’s wrong with that? If you pay a lot of money to the Conservative party, you can get a peerage and have a say in policy.”

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