Tonight’s YouGov voting intention has topline figures of CON 43%, LAB 38%, LDEM 11%. This is the lowest Liberal Democrat level of support recorded since straight before and after the resignation of Menzies Campbell, back in 2007. I’m slightly wary about focusing too much on extremes in polls, almost by definitions they are likely to be outliers, nevertheless, the downwards trend in Lib Dem support is there, slow but relentless.


337 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – 43/38/11”

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  1. Colin,

    A heads up on NASUWT. They are a bit more pragmatic than the NUT bunch. The former have a much higher portion of teachers is Independants and grammars. The latter are a red junta, in a manner of speaking.

  2. An indication that David miliband thinks the Blair intervention has damaged him is that he has sent an email out to voters distancing himself from Blair.
    his words:- “I’m sick and tired of the caricature that this leadership election is a choice between rejecting or retaining New Labour.”- He might want to return to Mandelson and his own words last week that sparked the tit for tat exchange.

  3. @Eoin,

    I

    ‘@Eoin,
    Iappreciate the strength of your feelings ,however I do not really see that it is necessary to mock someone because they do not agree one hundred per cent with what is a very sweeping statement.

    .

  4. EOIN

    As I await my ballot paper (actually I get 2 as I’m also a Fabian) I have decided that my 3 are the Millibands and Andy Burnham.

    My problem is that I’m not sure in what order!

  5. My results for the vote match test were exactly how I’m going to vote

    Ed Balls 65%
    Ed M 64%
    Diane A 51%
    Andy Burnham 4th
    David M 26% !

  6. How very ironic that two or three old men, who’s very raison d’etre was to stop their party from tearing itself apart, now seem intent on tearing it apart!!

    Surely anyone can see how far all the candidates of today are from these old men from the past,

  7. Ann (In Wales) – It is lovely to see another female posting on the site.

    There are very few of us and actually, few from Wales too.

    Do keep posting.

    Blues on here sometimes complain that they are out-numbered, but us ladies are practically extinct!

  8. David B,

    Split ticket vote… :) I’ll vote just AB me thinks. I am abstaining from the family feud.

    Ann,

    Sorry- I’ll be nicer.

  9. Having said that, we do make up in genius what we lack in numbers ;) lol

  10. Eoin

    Thanks

    If there was any doubt that Public Sector supply side reforms will be fought every step of the way by the vested interests of the status quo, you only have to listen to the views of the last Labour Prime Minister to attempt them.

  11. Of course, opposing the older brother, would mean we were left with the younger.

    A clever strategy for lefties.

  12. Colin,

    I agree with your analysis. We are a cosnervative bunch when it comes to change management.

    I also agree with GB’s pause button as I like to call it. Whether it is correct or incorect- Worker’s are paranoid that blues want to turn the public sector ethos into the private sector mentality. It matters to them. They feel they have taken a huge pay cut in potential earnings to serve the public good. Performance related pay, bonuses, incentivisation they regard as a kick in the teeth. Ironically on these matters health and education blues are the radicals and reds are the conservatives. I would favour a ten year pause button on health and educational reforms. If I wanted a heart attack making loadsa dosh I would have stayed in Coca cola. Two diametrically opposed but equally principles viewpoints. (imho)

  13. Eoin

    Yes-I understand what you are saying.

    I think almost any other country in the world,including, -as TB remarked on Marr-developing countries building their social provision , would find the concept that only the State can/should supply them bizarre.

    ……….for emphasis/clarification-i wrote “supply”-and not “fund” . There is a distinction, and I understand it.

    …….”public sector ethos”. I know what you will mean by this Eoin. And I believe that it will mean something very similar to many public sector workers.
    But-& I am sorry to say this-I think the “public sector ethos” that you mean has been turned on it’s head.

    The unions trying to stop a small Primary School from doing what it’s Head believes is in the best interests of its children, only have one “ethos”-and it doesn’t include the pupils-they never mention them.

    I am afraid “public sector ethos” needs to be re-examined. And the best people to examine it are it’s customers-not it’s providers -and most certainly not the vested interests of it’s employees.

  14. Colin “…from doing what it’s Head believes is in the best interests of its children”

    I wish I could emphasise “believes”.

  15. Colin,

    Yes I agree with you on the Unions 100%. I cant think of a good word I would like ot say about them. I was the only teacher I have ever met, that refused to join one. It is one of those professions that should be outlawed from striking.

    I share a disagreement with you on the ‘customer’ ‘choice’ stuff that Blair comes out with. I find it dehumanising. I also think uniformity is a good thing in education.

    in saying that, you lot won the election. Anyone respectful of democracy should wait and see how your freedom schools idea pans out. Note that I have never criticised Gove’s education policy once. It has yet to be tried.

  16. My mother (a social worker) was a member of NALGO back in the 1970s and 1980s. When they went on strike, she resigned from the union and carried on working. When the strike was over she rejoined.

    In fairness to NALGO they were still very good to her and represented her when she was effectively forced to take early retirement, ensuring that the terms were fair.

    I don’t dislike unions per se. I think the world would be an awful place without them (as it was before they were created). I just wish they would keep their powder dry and only use it where the cause is certain and the injustice intolerable.

  17. Eoin @ 11.36

    Thank you.

    Can never say you are not a Democrat .

  18. Colin,

    Speaking of democracy

    h ttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-11162916

  19. Thanks Eoin.

    I love this :-

    “Tony Lloyd, chairman of the Parliamentary Labour Party (PLP), said Labour had “never claimed” the election was conducted on a strictly one member, one vote basis, and the ballot reflected the unique structure of the party.”

  20. As a public sector worker, I think I’m in a minority of one in my office in not being a union member – I refused to sign up as I would have had to contribute either to the Labour party or to their general political fund, which had aims I couldn’t in good conscience support. To be honest I’ve found them to be worse than useless much of the time anyway.

    A friend of mine, who like me has never voted Labour, said he finds it very strange that he gets a vote on the Labour leadership.

  21. TonyOtim,

    Bakunin would be proud of ya :)

  22. I also happen to be a public sector worker and also in a union, but I opted out of the political levy on the basis that it should be me who decides what cause to back.
    So, I don’t think I’ll get a vote. I have voted Labour in the past and can see myself doing so again but it depends who is in charge, what the situation is, etc.

    About the Australian Election, it seems Gillard has gained the support of an independent – supply/confidence only, but it’ll do – giving the ALP 74 seats. Apparently of the 3 uncommitted independents 2 are leaning toward Labor and the other is much more likely to support the Liberals, who also seem to have some trouble with their budget forecasts. I think Gillard is moving toward forming a government of sorts.

  23. Can anyone tell us the current status of the intention to reduce the number of seats and equalize the constituencies? Is it intended to be in place for a GE in 2015? I have lost track. If so, seems to me any discussion of seat numbers is so much hot air. The coalition is unlikely to collapse before the changes are made, when all past polls will become irrelevant.

  24. KeithP,

    Thanks for the update. That is good news.

  25. @Sue Marsh,

    Thank you for your kind welcome,Sue.It takes me ages to type as I never learnt at school,but if I have anything useful
    to contribute,or relevant I will.

    @Eoin,
    Thank you.

  26. @Alec

    Re number of Tory seats

    You have forgotten to count the safe Tory seat of Thirsk & Malton. The Tories had 306 on 7 May but only 649/650 seats had declared because Thirsk & Malton didnt vote until 27 May due to the death of one of the candidates. That gave the Tories their 307th seat.

  27. @Eoin – “Imagine one of my kids had come accross our modern day Guido’s blog. What an absolute pillock he is.”

    Odd sentiments really. What Guido did was post a number of FOI requests about whether Hague shared a room with Myers, reports it seems that were intially treated with contempt by Hague’s team but later turned out to be true.

    Guido also questioned the suitability of Myers for the role and raised a number of questions about why he was appointed.

    He also noted that in 1995 Hague caused some concern, including questions in the House, regarding the appointment of an allegedly under qualified and openly gay SpAd when he was Welsh Secretary.

    I’m not 100% certain, but I don’t think Guido has ever accused Hague of being gay. All of Guido’s allegations as far as I can make out have been admitted to by Hague, after he threatened legal action against any print and broadcast media that even discussed the story.

    Far from deserving your ire, guido has trumped the national media and burrowed his way into a significant story. Why label him a pillock, unless you’re a secret union hating Hague fan?

  28. @the last fandango – understood, but I was confused by AW swingometer seat numbers that list the Tories on 306 with a total of 650 seats if my maths was right.

  29. Alec,

    I do not think I could disagree with you more. Guido covered the Blunt story. Why is beyond me? the other character you refer to I am happy not to dwell on. I accept that guido’s caption was more guesswork. It is only odd to say if you disagree with it. To me its oddity is absent I can assure you. Media drivel for the salivation of mongerers is sorrowful. I want no part of it.

    Actually, the Guido stories that disturbed me the most- if you read the posts I worte, was Gorodn Brown’s medication ( a private matter) And the former head of glasgow city council whose sexuality guido also sought to discuss.

    I find this kind of stuff rotten. Very very sad really. It is the job of a to impart vlaues of citizenship, guido is a cynic.

  30. @Eoin – can’t comment on Guido’s previous stuff, but on this one he’s bang on the money. His question was always the expenditure on public money on a SpAd who seems curiously ill equipped for the role. It’s right up the expenses scandal street and he’s done us a favour, however distasteful you might personally find it.

  31. Alec,

    I’m doing a Pointus Pilot on this one. My stone will not be cast. Good luck with all that it brings you….

  32. Eoin

    You are a decent chap.

  33. @ Alec

    “I’m not 100% certain, but I don’t think Guido has ever accused Hague of being gay.”

    ‘accused’!? Urgh!

  34. this hague thing is nonsense , surprising to see much of it being spread around by the conservative press

    feel sorry for him and his family

    however together with this NOTW tapping story , I think the coalition are quickly seeing that they are there to be shot at

    and as someone who didnt vote for them , I take some comfort in that

    I just wish hagues private life wasnt part of the ammo

  35. Wanderingwelshman.

    Your post has a refreshing smell of decency . The air has needed it of late.

    Thank you.

  36. @ TONYOTIM

    “As a public sector worker, I think I’m in a minority of one in my office in not being a union member – I refused to sign up as I would have had to contribute either to the Labour party or to their general political fund, which had aims I couldn’t in good conscience support. To be honest I’ve found them to be worse than useless much of the time anyway.”

    I’d be really interested to know what union will not let you opt out of these contributions.

    “A friend of mine, who like me has never voted Labour, said he finds it very strange that he gets a vote on the Labour leadership.”

    That will be because he is either an MP, Labour party member, or a member of a Labour affiliated society such as a trade union. Hardly surprising when you consider that the party was built on the foundations of and sustained through the support of these organisations.

  37. Yeurggghhh, the hypocrisy.

    And from one always so keen to be first to post ANY link that might whiff of bad news for Labour.

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