Tonight’s YouGov voting intention has topline figures of CON 43%, LAB 38%, LDEM 11%. This is the lowest Liberal Democrat level of support recorded since straight before and after the resignation of Menzies Campbell, back in 2007. I’m slightly wary about focusing too much on extremes in polls, almost by definitions they are likely to be outliers, nevertheless, the downwards trend in Lib Dem support is there, slow but relentless.


337 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – 43/38/11”

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  1. Yikes! Now all I can think of is David Miliband trying to bluff his way through a song while rolling his eyes at himself. It fits alarmingly well.

    (Which song? At the moment I’m going with “Things Can Only Get Better”.)

  2. I find these approval ratings strange.

    How can 56% vote for the government when only 38% approve of it?

  3. Easy Sue, half the Tories think it’s too liberal. Half the LibDems think it’s too Tory. Both are sticking with their party but don’t think that means they have to be cheerleaders for the cabinet.

    I, on the other hand, am very much a cheerleader for the cabinet, as you know ;)

  4. Neil A,

    Housing building figures in NI are atrocious. If you like I could paste a section of my book, which deals with it. She was more normal than abnormal. My first 3-4 years were in a back yard I should know :)

    Ann,

    Yes there are lots of fabulous things about our society. Sue quotes Shameless which I think is an apt example of the poor making the most of what they have. I interviewed a woman recently who had no fridge and a shed door for a back door. The roof was so low I had to ‘duck’ whilst standing in it.

  5. I think I should change my ukpr name to Lord North. I’m getting into the alleged cynicism. Maybe Philip Marlowe would be better. Down these mean streets a man must go. But really where are the worldly-wise urbane politicos of a past era. Winston C was wakened by an aide to tell him a tory back-bencher had been caught in the bushes in Whitehall with a Guardsman.
    “Wasn’t it rather cold last night?”, asked the PM
    “Yes. As a matterof fact it was one of the coldest nights on record.”
    “Makes you proud to be British,doesn’t it?.” The Pm rolled over.
    I’m afraid though that Guido has the teeth in to this case and it will all come out, like it or not.
    Is it the case that New Labour have so fundamentally transformed views on homosexuality that we risk treating such relationships more favourably than heterosexual ones? If an aging politician, say me, spent the night in a bedroom with a terribly attractive young aide whom he had appointed to a position for which she did not seem qualified without recourse to the normal HR routes might an eye-brow be quizzically raised?

  6. Re the Hague story – I suspect that had this been just a ‘malicious blogger’ there would be no story and everyone would have ignored it completely. A number of papers are seeking to run with the story and the question of Myer’s abilities and competance for the post do seem to raise some pertinent questions.

    I’m old enough to recall not one but several senior Tory ministers issuing stern statements proclaiming their total innocence in various matters to know better than to right off such stories (swords of truth, shields of justice and fragrant wives spring to mind) but we’ll have to wait and see if there is any hard evidence to back up the rumours.

    If Hague does run into trouble it will show how the earlier chat about coalition numbers rather misses the point. Outside one party rule, political stability is the key issue, not MP numbers. Hague is a lynchpin ally of Cameron’s and an absolutely central part of the government. Were anything to force him from office it would have a damaging and destabilising effect on the government, particularly if it arises from negative factors.

    A couple of big Tory scandals might give the Lib Dems a window to jump. This is what makes or breaks coalition governments.

  7. I didn’t think Special Advisors were ever selected via the conventional HR route? And didn’t Labour have millions and millions of them?

    In all seriousness I don’t think this is evidence of discrimination on the basis of sexuality. It’s a bit like arguing that male footballers shouldn’t share showers after a game, because mixed male and female footballers wouldn’t.

  8. @Sue Marsh – “How can 56% vote for the government when only 38% approve of it?”

    Because the 72% who don’t approve, approve of the other choices even less?

    @Barney – “Down these mean streets a man must go”

    Wasn’t Marlowe’s classic line something about sailing down a sewer in a glass bottom boat? much more apt for a politcal analogy?

    You make a very good point though which risks getting lost amongst all the huffing and puffing about nasty blogger types.

  9. @Neil A – Labour had 78 SpAds, Cameron has 68, although Myers wasn’t on the July list so that’s 69.

    Interestingly, Hague has 3 SpAd including Myers, the only minister to have more than 2 other than Cameron. The Defence Secretary only has one.

  10. Isn’t the FCO a bit of a wider brief than defence?

  11. Also, wasn’t a Spad a rather flimsy aircraft that was frequent shot down in flames?

  12. Alec – That was my conclusion. They’re the 16% up for grabs.

  13. @Neil A – Osborne only has 2.

    And one on the PMs SpAds is quoted in tomorrows New York Times as encouraging illegal phone tapping while a Fleet Street Editor.

    It’s a murky world down there.

  14. If an aging politician, say me, spent the night in a bedroom with a terribly attractive young aide

    Barney you are getting carried away again

    and Alec 72 plus 38 = ?

    It is late.

  15. A Spad as every railwayman knows is Signal Passed at Danger

  16. @ Richard in Norway

    I think Tony Blair may be a very intelligent man but so have many who have been taken advantage of by narcissistic sociopaths. He’s entitled to his opinion though he’s wrong.

    If you want a song to cheer you up from the memories of Dubya, try listening to this great musical number, For Now, from the musical Avenue Q:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XJdcROXeaWc&feature=related

  17. Link on the NYT’s phone tapping story

    h t t p : / /www.nytimes.com/2010/09/05/magazine/05hacking-t.html?_r=3&hp=&pagewanted=all

  18. @barney crockett

    From what I’ve read of the alleged scandal, indeed the ‘meat’ of the story in this modern age is less about the genders involved, and more about the possibility of abuse of privilege. It does put a new spin on “Jobs for the Boys”.

  19. the blues are backing hague 100%

    he’s toast

  20. Alec and Howard
    You have both summed me up perfectly.
    My favourite film is The Sweet Smell of Success- “I can’t deny he sweats a bit”
    Surely everyone realises the statement has been timed for the Blair launch? A bit optimistic that the gutter press would miss that. However if there is no money to stick to it there is no story anyway
    Neil A
    Maybe one reason I stick to this is that our local paper has campigned for we councillors to be denied our morning roll!

  21. I thought Hague’s statement was quite extraordinary.
    Can’t remember ever reading anything quite like it.

    Sort of like Jonathan Aitkin meets Jeremy Kyle.

  22. Richard in Norway
    I know what you mean but do the current tories have that edge of ruthlessness? Are they not just a bit too friendly? I thought it was very funny that Mr Gove has had a colleague leak to the press that his free school plan has flopped because
    1 the unions are campaigning against it
    2 his officals are useless
    Hard to see someone giving M Thatcher that as the reason.

  23. the blues are saying that hague is being maligned but they tag on at the end that they have doubts. it’s all rather ambivalent

  24. The fact that LDs jumped back up to 12% will be a releif for them In many ways that shows how bad things have become. Perhaps 11% was an outlier.

  25. the bright side is that this distracts from DC’s press secretary

  26. I remember teaching Guy Fawkes to a bunch of 13 year olds on the 400 anniversary of another Catholic getting stitched up for something he did not do :P (teasing). The kids loved the topic, many went away and researched it on the net… Tea stained confessions etc arrived in after the weekend… Imagine one of my kids had come accross our modern day Guido’s blog. What an absolute pillock he is.

  27. Coulson AND Hague in one day! One day, not even one week.

    This is like fast forward government; fastest cuts, fastest coalition formation, fastest pushing through of policies, fastest resignation of a cabinet minister and now fastest major scandals.

  28. Oh I forgot fastest falling approval ratings too.

  29. i wonder if danny boy is the curse of william’s problems. no tax cuts would not have been popular with blue backers

    sorry i just love conspiracy theories

  30. @ Richard

    If there is any credibility to NYT’s story, I imagine it will be a slow burner.

  31. Sue
    This is known as burying news cf Milburn ? after 9/11?

  32. sue

    lol……rofl :lol: :lol:

  33. NYT is a serious paper but it’s a bit odd that they should be interested in this story on the other side of the pond

  34. barney

    gove seems to be useless, he’s been my bet to be the first blue to resign or be reshuffled for some time now

  35. Richard – Could it be a Murdoch thing? He seems to be incredibly unpopular in the US at the moment.

  36. Peter Oborne’s advice (via The Observer, April 4) to Cameron: If you do win the election, don’t let Coulson anywhere near Downing Street.

  37. article of the day award! :)

    Nite :)

    h ttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-11155571

  38. sue

    ah ;-)

    goodnight all

  39. @ Sue

    You’ve not been your usual cheerful self this week. I’ve been hoping for a coalition scandal to come along & brighten your day. ;-)

  40. @ Eoin

    I find this whole Blair intervention fascinating and I wonder if it will impact the Labour leadership race. This Blair intervention is eerily similar to the political machinations that ultimately brought down Hillary in 08′ and got Obama the presidential nomination. Democratic activists resented Bill Clinton in the same way that Labour activists resent Tony Blair. Mind you, Bill Clinton never ever ever claimed that Dubya had “genuine integrity and political courage” nor would he. But people saw Bill as someone who let Dubya in, didn’t properly criticize him out of office, and who triangulated away what the Democratic Party stood for. And they saw him as manipulative. And Hillary was seen in the same way. And people ganged up when they got the opportunity.

    It’ll be interesting if Blair’s memoir and reappearance manages to turn people off from David Miliband or gets voters to turn their second preferences to an anti-Miliband. Miliband has an advantage that he’s not Blair’s wife.

  41. @Amber Star.

    I have just gotten back from work. The links to the
    BBC postdictions for the results of the 2010, 2005, 2001, 1997, 1992, 1987, 1983 elections if conducted under AV can be found here. The link to the ConHome article by David Alexander is here. I hope that helps.

    Regards, Martyn

  42. Martyn,

    Finally got to read your post with links on AV from the recent thread which were stuck in moderation, thanks for that.

  43. @ Eoin

    Back in 1998 the school I worked in did a survey of pupils parents ready if the was to be a ballot on Grammar Schools in Kent. The results were stark only 11% had one stable Mother and Father, (not necessarily there own), this is part of broken society. There are girls who have had three abortions whilst still teenagers, plenty of kids have such messy home lives split between parents step parents and grandparents it is amazing how they cope. This to me adds to the broken society, I think in the sexual realm people want freedom but not the responsibility that comes with it and it is the kids that suffer, as a teacher I see this so often.

  44. Graham,

    I am glad you agree. terminations as a method of birth control I have come accross. I remember taking a citizenship class once on abortion. Coming from a Catholic village in NI I had no idea teenagers commonly availed of it. 3 girls in the class (under 16) were in tears, since i had not addressed the topic sensitively enough (my failing of course). That was a harsh lesson for me to learn. Add to that self harming and bullemia and you have quite a concotion for young girls to deal with these days.

  45. SocCalLib,

    It is hard to say. Evidently the reincarnation of TB is welcomed by red centrists. There was a fair smattering of eulogising yesterday. The effect will be to polarise opinion I think. When i raised some of the issues that I knew would come up in the campaign (but back in June) most reds envisaged a quiet campaign, perhaps a love in. As the campaign has developed it has become more honest about the differences. I can see at least four strands of opinion…

    1. Blair was great we’d have won a fourth term with him. Dogma lite, charm high = vote D Miliband.

    2. Brown had the right policies he was just a bit freaky pn personality. Dogma high charm lite = ed Balls (although he has grown on some)

    3. This Blair- Brown thing is a disaster. We need a break from factionalism and get back to ordinary labour values and people. = Burnham = Dogma moderate, charm moderate.

    4. Lets just pretend Brown Blair never existed. Lets wind the clock back to a pre-Blair age. Social Deomcratic Statism, with strong union presence. Dogma high, charm moderate. = Ed Miliband

    By its very nature it had to be a generalisation. The majority do not want a return to blairism but they are split over three candidates.

  46. @Eoin

    Of course, being split over three candidates shouldn’t matter in a ranked preference election of this kind. If it weren’t for those people who for strange reasons insist on voting as if it were still first-past-the-post.

  47. Jay,

    Yes and no. If your first and second prefs were EB/DA it would essentially be a wasted vote…

    Who gives third prefs these days?

    I’ve posted the site for you before but I’ll do it again. Ark elections ni – you can monitor the STVs for the NI assembly.

  48. Jay,

    Upper Bann went to 9 counts I think in 2007… Here is the link for it if you want to calculate the % of prefs passed on.

    h ttp://www.ark.ac.uk/elections/07ub.htm

  49. for those that the link makes no sense to, I attach the details of the 11th count… (you’re looking for non-transferable %s)

    Count 11: Of the 2818 votes transferred from McCrum to Moutray (both DUP), 2048 (72.7%) transferred on to Savage (UUP) and 12 (0.4%) to Ward (SF) with 758 (26.9%) non-transferable.

  50. @ BARNEY CROCKETT

    “I thought it was very funny that Mr Gove has had a colleague leak to the press that his free school plan has flopped because
    1 the unions are campaigning against it
    2 his officals are useless”

    I don’t think it is funny at all.

    I recommend a piece in The Times today ( Camilla Cavendish) if you want to know what’s been going on.

    Ask the head of Tidemill Primary school to show you some of the leaflets-and whose names are on them.

    Or have a look at Cuckoo Hall Primary to see what these forces of reaction & status quo privilege are fighting to stop.

    Think about why NAHT supports these freedoms, and NUT/NASUWT does not.

    It will take time-hoping for a Big Bang was a mistake-and letting that clause in the legislation be exploited by the unions was a cock-up.

    But Gove will get there-slowly but surely.

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