There is a new YouGov welsh poll for ITV Wales, full tables are here. Topline voting intentions with changes from YouGov’s poll last month are.

Assembly constituency: CON 22%(+2), LAB 39%(-1), LDEM 10%(-3), PC 23%(+1)
Assembly regional: CON 21%(+1), LAB 39%(+2), LDEM 9%(-5), PC 23%(-3)

UPDATE: By my reckoning, on a uniform swing this would give the Conservatives 12 assembly seats (nc), Labour 28 (up 2), the Liberal Democrats 5 (down 1), Plaid 14 (down 1) and 1 Independent.


359 Responses to “Latest Welsh voting intentions”

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  1. Colin – Apart from the last line ( ;) ) I agree with that post almost entirely.

  2. Amber,

    “our” :)

  3. Amber,

    AHRC list their stats on payout for PhDs. These are historic since as alec points out they now designate spending to the Uni (less rigourous in my view). They have a very accesible website if you are interested.

  4. When I looked at doing a PHD a few months ago, it said I had to have been resident in the UK for 3 years to qualify for funding.

    Some EU residents could hope to have their fees paid, but no grants.

    Non – EU were on their own as I understood it, but now I’m thinking I read it wrong Eoin, are we talking about the same funding, or am I getting muddled? Are you saying the government pay the UNI 60k perhaps to take on the student?

  5. @ Éoin, Colin & Alec

    So, unscrupulous students lie about their domicile to obtain funding & the Universities do nothing to effectively verify their residence &/or passport details?

    Meanwhile, UK taxpayers money is being blown on ‘silly’ PhDs. How do you know that UK taxpayers were the source of those funds? Is there no international, European or endowment funding of PhDs?

    Who decides which students are chosen & checks their bona-fides? Is it the universities – who do not want controlling, Labour governments telling them what to do?

    This sounds like a reason for more state control of universities, not less, IMO! 8-)

  6. Sue,

    there are so many different categories for funding DEL CAST ERASMUS AHRC etc.. so for that one perhaps (although if you read my post to Amber you will see how that is easy to get a round).

    I know four in my year so 4/11 who lied about their domicile status.

  7. Oh for a poll – even if it’s on cruelty to cats

  8. Amber,

    For the record, I do not think the PhDs are silly. Au contraire… the research methodology makes the degree rather than the content per say. Those four I mentioned are four incredibly intelligent individuals who will make untold contribution to their countries economy…

    Two of them were quantitative methodologists… probably make good pollsters.

  9. @ Éoin

    It sounds to me as if UK universities have too much autonomy & too few controls placed on them. I now hoping that a ‘great clunking state fist’ comes down hard on such nonsense. ;-)

  10. From The Guardian Sept 2009.

    “There are almost twice as many international students studying in the UK now as there were 10 years ago, says an annual report on university trends.

    The number of non-European students has virtually doubled, according to today’s report, published by Universities UK.

    International students provided a bigger source of income for UK universities in 2007/08 than government grants for research, the report adds.

    One in 10 enrolments in 2007-08 – 229,640 students – were from outside the EU. In 1998-99, the figure was 117,290, which makes the increase 96%. Students from outside the EU pay more for courses at UK universities than their European counterparts.

    In 2007-08, £1.88bn of UK universities’ income came from non-EU students, while £1.76bn came from government research grants.

    China provides the most students to UK universities, with 19,385 enrolments for first degrees, and 21,990 enrolments for post-graduate degrees.”

    Who is paying for all these students?-their governments or their wealthy parents?

    Is it right that wealthy overseas students are ahead of impoverished UK students in the queue?

  11. @ Éoin

    That’s why I put ‘silly’ in ”. I love education for education’s sake. At my own expense, I study international law but I will never be a lawyer. 8-)

  12. Amber,

    Blair started a ball rolling in 1997 that there is no going back from…

    Indigenous fees are set to hit £21k soon. Everything at Uni is marketised , gyms, cafes, accomodation, etc…

    I cannot forsee a solution? We are a kick in the arse of being as bad as America.

  13. @ Colin

    Is it right that wealthy overseas students are ahead of impoverished UK students in the queue?
    —————————————–
    Would you care to do your political compass again? I think you may be moving in my direction.
    :-)
    8-)
    :-)

  14. Amber,

    Good good! A lot of great things came out of the whole venture… We voted the first chinese woman in europe as or MLA… Our turnout at the GE was 34% which very progressive- ie to abstain from sectarian politics. It is a lovely area and would not be worth living in if it were not for the wonderful mix of international students…

  15. @ Colin – “China provides the most students to UK universities”

    American theorists would say this is the best form of ‘soft power’, no?

  16. Amber

    “I think you may be moving in my direction.”

    Nope-just where I always was.

    From me to you is a very long way-& I’m staying here ;-)

  17. “American theorists would say this is the best form of ’soft power’, no?”

    I don’t really give a t**s what they would say Billy Bob..

    I just think it’s bloody mad-but so typically us-sodding shambles.

    It’s been an education though ;-)

  18. Howard – “Oh for a poll – even if it’s on cruelty to cats”

    :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

  19. @ Alec

    “It’s more to do with the fact that there is no cap on fees for overseas students. They bring in £2b annually to UK universities who would go bankrupt without them. I think I’m right in saying that foreign students pay a higher direct contribution than UK ones.”

    Yes that too I suppose. Nice to know we haven’t moved on from Yes Minister just yet ;)

  20. @Colin – Looks like we have a growth area…

    build them and they will come. :)

  21. Howard/Sue

    Your wish is my command:

    ht tp://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/YG-Archives-Life-CatWoman-250810.pdf

  22. “Martin Davidson, the British Council’s chief executive, said that there was still a 25:1 imbalance in the number of UK students choosing to study abroad, compared with those coming to the UK.

    He said about 500,000 international students came to the UK each year, while the flow in the other direction was between 15,000 and 20,000.”

    Times Higher Education June 2010

    Completely bonkers.

  23. The latest polls are suggesting: NOTHING!

    “5 more years, I will go on & on & on etc!!!

  24. Colin – The vast majority of those pay to come and study English in private colleges.
    They are not competing for places a UK student need.

    The problem, as I understand it, is many unlicensed colleges sprang up that were just fronts for UK entrance and taught nothing.

  25. Colin,

    Universities are guaranteed a certain number of students, in effect, because there is a major shortage of higher education facilities relative to demand and a 15th choice university charges the same fees as a 1rst choice university. Students are certainly there, but I wouldn’t say they’re an important part of running a university.

    What really matters is research. That’s the part of a departmental budget that is variable. In the humanities, at least, the research assessment exercise is king.

    The main function of students, apart from being a steady source of income for departments, is that they help perpetuate the myth that universities exist to educate the general public. If people stopped believing that myth, they wouldn’t be so willing to support universities and might stop sending their children there.

    As long as price controls exist in higher education, this will be the way it is. There are alternatives eg. a system of state bursaries, given on the basis of grades achieved at high school and taxed as part of the parents’ income, would make universities compete for students again.

    However, the present system satisfies the people who matter (university staff) and as long as parents keep on believing the myth of higher education, we’re fine.

  26. I love this article

    h ttp://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/one-in-four-lap-dancers-has-a-degree-study-finds-2063252.html

  27. Roger M
    Howard/Sue
    Your wish is my command (cat woman opinion poll)

    Unbelievable. Thanks Roger

    But it’s still August and Wayne has not tired of us and I am still eating salads.

    What do we think will happen when USA’s looming depression meets Germany’s boom?

  28. @Colin – “And I had thought it was to educate our own brightest young people ”

    Without wishing to be argumentative about, you have actually hit upon the great misconception of traditional universities. Most academic staff (at the older universities) will tell you that the main focus of their work is research. If they’re being honest most of them admit that students are an irritating bit of the job (usually taking only about 1/3 of their time) that gets in the way of their proper task.

    In the science and technology sector its far more focused on open research and commercial development, spin off companies and competing for research funding. Professorships are awarded on the quality of the individuals research – how good they are at teaching is largely irrelevant. They absolutely love this time of year when they can just get on with the job.

  29. @Colin – by way of a PS, I did wonder that if we’re worried about the use of resources in UK universities, maybe we ponder our friend Eoin. He works in one, yet never seems to be to busy to post here………..

    [If I could do one of those smiley faces I would insert it here}

  30. eoin

    higher inflation, that is a surprise but i don’t see how that will happen

    there is nothing restricting inflation at the moment in fact with super low rates and QE there should be quite a lot of inflationary pressure

    unless he is hinting at a planed devaluation, no they wouldn’t, would they?

    anyway it’s all quick fixes

    the problems have been brewing for decades

    every time the system has looked like collapsing govt’s have found a way to inject more money into the game

    but now there is nothing left, they have thrown every thing but the kitchen sink at this

  31. @ Wayne

    “5 more years, I will go on & on & on etc!!!
    ————————————-
    I’m sure you will ;-)

  32. i notice that the chinese govt seems willing to allow large pay rises in their export industries

    of course western govt’s have been claiming credit for low inflation rates over the last 10/15 years. but really it’s the underpaid chinese worker that has delivered the holy grail of low and stable inflation

    so now might be a good time to stock up on consumer electronics

  33. Immigration?
    As someone who has worked on immigration issues for many years I think I have to come in with a health warning. I fear that Eoin you have risked generalising from what I presume is an extreme outlier. Many immigrants know that Northern Ireland is an anomoly in many details of immigration law and also that the rules are not always applied with the same rigour there for political reasons. Certainly in Scotland domicile rules are imposed with strictness and with evidence always demanded.
    A Chinese friend of mine was refused home student status because she had stayed on until the end in Hong Kong on the promise of a full British passport. She received one of these special British passports but was told that she was still “from abroad” The three year rule is also not arbitary. Immigration will only give students entry for a limited period and will usually insist that they leave the UK at the end of that stay, even if it is the token of buying a ticket to the Irish Republic and not going. But the the three years will start counting again. If the student is from a country with a poor record of compliance or they have any other reason for being antagonistic they will insist you go home to Nigeria or whatever and re-apply for entry.
    As others have posted, our universities rely 100% for financial survival on overseas students (I am a former governor of a university). The head of Universities UK did please me though by pointing out last year or so ago that not only do we need them for that reason but also for numeracy subjects in which no western English-speaking country comes close to meeting its needs.
    The huge discrepancy in numbers here from abroad and UK nationals studying abroad is one of our greatest international advantages despite some real problems about our own entrants. People do not come here because it is an easy touch financially and especially in terms of immigration procedures it is far from the most accommodating. Quite simply people want to be here and if they can’t stay to have our education on their cv.
    Immigration policy has its critics and I am not at all blind to the difficulties posed in our poorer areas but let us be clear there is close to no chance of it changing. Nothing can be done about the EU. Nothing more will be done about non-EU. Our employers will demand this and no one will stop them. There will be some talk.
    At the treasury select committeee the people from the OBR confirmed that their economic projections rely on an assumpion of 140k plus net inward migration per annum.
    ps to give an example, A10 nationals e.g. Romanians are not allowed to work like Poles etcbut are allowed here as self-employed. When this was signed we may not have realised that selling the BI is self-employment

  34. howard

    well the last time Angela was asked to help out the anglo-saxon’s she was none too willing

    i suspect that there will be a good deal of “see we were right all along” from the germans. they have been on the receiving end of a lot of criticism in the past decade for not embracing the anglo-saxon model wholeheartedly

  35. Sue
    Private colleges?
    Fraid not
    Private colleges are a red herring
    Almost all students from abroad are in our public colleges and universities. There will be very few if any mechanical engineering classes operating in the uk with a uk domiciled majority of students, there will be many such classes with minimal uk domiciled students and there will be few lectures in mechanical enginerring recruited in the last ten years from within the uk and those that have will be from ethnic minorities

  36. @ Colin

    “He said about 500,000 international students came to the UK each year, while the flow in the other direction was between 15,000 and 20,000.”
    Times Higher Education June 2010
    Completely bonkers.”

    I think it’s rather a good thing that our institutions are respected enough to pull in so many students from overseas (bogus universities are a separate issue). As has been previously mentioned this pulls in c. £2bn to the economy each year – surely a good thing. The flow in the other direction is unsurprising – language skills are generally poor with British students, and with the exception of some of the Irish universities, the costs of studying in another anglophone nation are prohibitive.

  37. Richard in Norway
    There may well be inflation but it is unlikely to come soon from Chinese wage pressure. At the last count I saw while 400 million Chinese had been lifted from absolute poverty there were still 400 million to go, all, unlike India, with good basic education.

  38. Barney Crockett
    “There will be very few if any mechanical engineering classes operating in the uk with a uk domiciled majority of students, ”

    Do you have any evidence for this and your other assertions?

  39. eion

    here is the post from earlier that got eaten by CAPTCHA, i had to rewrite from memory so not 100% the same

    the scale of US debt is terrifying, it’s not just the govt, it’s also the state level and the county and the personal add to that the balance of payments account. it’s not pretty

    i don’t know why they have triple A rating, they don’t look like a good risk to me

    the problem is that everyone spends more than they earn, from the top to the bottom

    they don’t pay enough tax but the average american family can’t afford to pay more. in fact gas prices going up by 1$ a gallon would send many over the edge

    if the US does go belly up there are a number of thing that will work against them. short term there is the problem of liquid capital. this has always been an asset to them, lots of petrodollars being invested and when the banking shock happened it helped them again, arab investors worried about their investments losing value rushed money into the market to prop it up. could that happen again, no not really. so if things look really bad then money will start to flood out of the country(just look at the asian tigers in the 90s and they didn’t have any real problem until the capital flows started)

    in the the long term there is the problem of human capital. the US has under invested in education for yonks, but that’s not a problem if you have low taxes and can import skilled workers from abroad. however if the economy goes sour and these workers feel they have better prospects in their home countries then we might get the brain drain in reverse. in which case the US economy could be unable to grow due to a lack of skills but without a better preforming economy those people with the right skills won’t come back and of course lead time on producing such skills are 10 to 20 years, as you should know working at a uni

    in short i’m a bit nervous about american prospects, but they always seem to be able to come out on top. it would be brave to bet against them

  40. Unions are starting to throw weight around –

    From today’s Times:

    “One of Britain’s biggest unions has threatened to withdraw funding from the Labour Party if it elects David Miliband or Ed Balls as leader next month.
    Paul Kenny, the General Secretary of the GMB union, told The Times that other unions would follow suit if Ed Miliband was not chosen to succeed Gordon Brown.
    The warning, which senior Shadow Cabinet members will view as blackmail, came a week after Lord Prescott said that Labour was “on the verge of bankruptcy”. The former Deputy Prime Minister revealed that the party was being kept alive by “trade union contributions, high-value donations and the goodwill of the Co-op bank”.
    Asked if his union would withdraw funding from Labour if Ed Miliband did not win, Mr Kenny said: “If the new leader offers us more of the same, many unions — including our own — would have to consider where we are at. Ed Balls and David Miliband represent where we’ve been. They are not without talent. I would not rubbish them. But if the direction of the party went off chasing some right-of-centre ground . . .””

  41. Richard/Michael,

    Outstanding posts. I will give them some time before replying.

    Recent developments in the US have (if we all honest) sprung out of nowhere.

    ________
    Alec,

    silim go bhfuíl se iontach go hol ach ta se chruir se laimbh in a bhais fein :)
    ______

    Chifidh me thu amarch

  42. Alec,

    Your generalisation is a sorrowful indictment on your outlook. A sizeable % of academics think long and hard about their students development. My own PhD, assessment career etc… has not detracted from my role as a facilitator or learning. I am frankly embarassed by your grosssly imature posts. You silly old grumpy man

    Frankly, I have had enough of your rude manners.

  43. Barney,

    Excellet post, I agreed with almost all of it. You may also be correct that Queen’s is an outlier.

    Two diffs.

    One: why do ‘they’ not stay here (surely you wont deny that)?

    Be honest: how rigourous was your regualations implemented?

    I applaud the entire sentiment of your post. Point scoring on matters such as these is disingenuous. I care that the UK’s best talent can fulfill their potential and that our foreign arrivals stay. I regret to say that I make no apoligies for celebrating the temporary arrival of a gentleman from further shores.

  44. @ Michael V

    “If the new leader offers us more of the same, many unions — including our own — would have to consider where we are at. Ed Balls and David Miliband represent where we’ve been. They are not without talent. I would not rubbish them. But if the direction of the party went off chasing some right-of-centre ground . . .””
    —————————————————-
    Hardly ‘throwing their weight around”. The unions want a center left Labour Party; union members want a center left Labour Party; Labour Party members want a center left Labour Party.

    This is nothing to do with the leadership per se. It is the union’s response to John Prescott standing for treasurer. It is a warning to candidates – do not back Lord Prescott’s bid for the job. Labour Party treasurer is a union position & that’s as it should be, IMO. 8-)

  45. So, this morning I got leaflet from my council :

    Your chance to be Chancellor.

    It explained that there is a “national financial crisis in the UK”

    It set out its total budget, told us how much it needs to save and then split the budget into how much is spent per department.

    There are three boxes over the page, asking me to rank in preference the areas I would most like the savings to come from.

    Finally, and IMO most impressively, here in the shires, we still have many three tier councils – County, Borough and District. They ask whether they should FINALLY merge the District and Borough (Duh, yuhuh)

    So, other than the glaring caveats of :

    “SOME CLAIM there is a financial crisis”

    and

    But what about my council tax and in fact raising council tax if necessary?

    All in all, a very good exercise if they take it seriously.

    Did you all get these too, or is it just my radical and innovative (?????????) Worthing Council?

  46. **It might amuse you all to know I researched our local councils some time ago.

    As I was constantly being asked to stand for this council and that, this ward for Borough, that ward for District, nominations from somewhere else for County, I thought I’d see what they all did.

    No-one really knew!! There was a leaflet outlining the broadest areas, but otherwise, no-one could really tell me what the responsibilities were for each and more importantly WHY! County seemed fairly important, Borough a sort of Town flag waver, District??? No-one was quite sure. Lol.

  47. @Eoin -“I am frankly embarassed by your grosssly imature posts. You silly old grumpy man

    Frankly, I have had enough of your rude manners.”

    Oh dear – you really seem to have got upset over something.

    I agree that a ‘sizable % of academics think long and hard over their students development’. I didn’t say they didn’t. All I said was that this is a smaller part of their time and a lesser part of universities role than academic research, facts that I note you haven’t refuted. And yes, most of them do find that students get in the way of the stuff they really want to do, but that doesn’t make them bad teachers, and I never claimed it did.

    I then made a tongue in cheek gag at your expense, clearly labelled as a joke. I could be wrong, but I don’t think too many would take offence at a joke like this, when the poster makes clear it is a joke – I’ve certainly been the but of some far more robust exchanges on here over the years.

    As someone who apologises readily if I overstep the mark I genuinely can’t find anything I’ve done that might offend you and find your outburst slightly baffling. I would be grateful if other posters could judge my actions – I’ll very happily take a step back if others feel I’ve behaved inappropriately, and will impose upon myself a three week UK Polling Report posting ban if the collective jugdement is that I’ve been a bit of a tw*t.

    Without being immature or rude, I will say however that there is a clear pattern emerging with many of your posts (as noted by some others). You open an issue, pontificate on it at length, often with (in many people’s eyes) somewhat dubious facts and viewpoints, often appearing an an expert in the subject in hand, but then when faced with awkward responses you can’t refute you either move swiftly on to the next chosen topic of find some other excuse to close down the exchange (by accusing someone of rudeness and immaturity?).

    I normaly enjoy your posts – I don’t often agree with them, but find them thought provoking and challenging. I just find it a bit odd you’ve had a bit of a tantrum over something intended to be mildly humorous. The ability to laugh at ourselves is sometime a great asset. I do it all the time.

  48. Howard “Oh for a poll – even if it’s on cruelty to cats”

    Funniest thing I’ve read this morning. Lol

  49. Bill Patrick

    Thank you for your post-it has been a revelation for me.

    I see that growing overseas student numbers was a TB initiative-it was a success!

    I find it utterly depressing.

    A nation with growing social problems associated with welfare dependency & long term worklessness, brings in 3 million net immigrants over 10 years.

    in the same period it doubles the numbers of foreign students , to fund its “universities” , who it has charged with giving places to 50% of it’s own children…..who now cannot get those places, thus joining the ranks of those unemployed in the tail end of a recession.

    In order to compete at the technological cutting edge , in a world which sees China & India as the motors of its global economy, we educate more of their students, and leave more of ours on the dole.

    No doubt the Chinese & Indians will know exactly what to do with those highly qualified young people.

    We seem not to have a clue.

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