There is a new YouGov welsh poll for ITV Wales, full tables are here. Topline voting intentions with changes from YouGov’s poll last month are.

Assembly constituency: CON 22%(+2), LAB 39%(-1), LDEM 10%(-3), PC 23%(+1)
Assembly regional: CON 21%(+1), LAB 39%(+2), LDEM 9%(-5), PC 23%(-3)

UPDATE: By my reckoning, on a uniform swing this would give the Conservatives 12 assembly seats (nc), Labour 28 (up 2), the Liberal Democrats 5 (down 1), Plaid 14 (down 1) and 1 Independent.


359 Responses to “Latest Welsh voting intentions”

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  1. Sue/BillyB,

    We wrecked half of the asian world with bombs and waffle about democracy, we topple governments like skittles and cripple entire populations with economic misery.

    Tony Blair shares IDENTICAL guilt with Dubya.

  2. @SUE
    Thanks for the immigration review, as for education, when I was a young officer the average squaddie could read, write reasonable, understandable English, and was numerate enough to get by very well. He probably had a bit of a clue about our country’s history. That is certainly is not the case now. Corporals and Sergeants nearly all have to receive further education to gain promotion. That was certainly available in my day, but used far less. I think your mum suffered for being a girl, and I quite agree the appaling gender issues of those days needed to change. But my point is, I bet your mum was a dab hand at the 3 Rs and was quite capable of getting and holding on to a job of work. You know the level of some of them now.
    BTW, you wanna tell all about this good wife thing, nudge nudge, wink wink.

  3. @EOIN
    You cannot be argued with on this point.

  4. @EOIN – “More than 50% of studentships go to non Uk citizens.”
    If I’m not mistaken, studentships are given to the most capable students. This goes back to our original conversation about our attitudes in the UK to further education. Perhaps the UK should produce more students capable of receiving studentships?

  5. Julian-

    Standards are not comparable accross indigenous unis nevermind international ones… In France they score a PhD in the Uk it is just a pass or a fail. There are other examples…

    In my day a first class honours was 70%.

    Now you can drop your worse grade get 67% with the remainder and the third year has 60% weighting the second year just 40%. You can resit exams you fail etc…

    But the principle I agree with- A clause that they should work in our country would not go amiss…

    I know 4 Jordanians and two gaza citizens who done PhDs at Queen’s. They have all gone home :(

  6. @JULIAN
    I think the Labour party have done this country a massive disservice regarding immigration. Further comment will get me into hot water. But at least you know my concerns now, which was your question.

  7. Eoin – i don’t understand that point at all.

    One of my friends is a Tamil Indian from Singapore – we were at Uni together. She paid a small fortune for the privilege – just how did we pay her 55-60k?

  8. Sue

    It is quite simple.

    the government pay students to do PhDs. £60k plus their PTA remains intact…

    Anyone on earth is eligible to apply.

    When they graduate most go home.

  9. Julian/Colin,

    as a PhD student I shared an office with

    1 Brazilian
    1 Greek
    1 rep of Eire
    1 Pole

    Thats £240k of the taxpayers money for foreigners to write PhDs.

    The Brazilian, Greek and Southerner are all gone.

    The Pole is engaged to her Mexican boyfrined (also PhD who she met here).

  10. Regarding University places for British students, I think the problem could just be something simpler. I think that the A-Level results are released very late. The A-Level results were released, I think, in August. Whereas the IB results are released in June/July. So Universities already know that the foreign students have achieved the requirments or not, as opposed to hanging on waiting for the A-Levels to be released. There’s less risk, I think.

    Also it could be something to do with the fact that UCAS is absoloutely hopeless…

  11. Colin/Julian

    The content of their study might amuse you.

    The Brazilian wrote about Irish ‘wakes’.
    The Pole wrote about Irish myths
    The Greek wrote about extinct civilissations musical taste
    The southerner wrote a biogrpahy of a southern politician

  12. Sorry everyone (7.52) Eoin has judged the matter with his definitive certainty.

    No point discussing Iraq any more.

    Re PHDs if they pay 60K, where can I sign up? I was thinking of one actually, but thought I couldn’t afford it!!

  13. @Roland
    I find it hard to believe that literacy got worse under Labour.
    It was the Sun wot won it in 1992 I believe.

  14. eoin

    i can’t find any talk of a forth option, just more of the same

    please don’t be cryptic, what are you going on about

  15. Richard

    Sorry this is it…

    Scroll down the table and read the fourth one.

    h ttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11114315

  16. @ Colin

    “Officials believe that the size of the capital budget allocated to the free schools push, not a lack of demand from schools groups, will determine whether the government is able to stick to its 220,000 free school places target over 10 years “
    ——————————————————–
    Actually, Colin, this was the point that I made to Toby Young. How did he intend to fund his school? Had he even considered whether he could create & run a school based on the amount per pupil that would be available?

    Now it is clear, the building schools for the future program was to be used to pay for the free schools.

    I think that the coalition’s education policies – or lack of ability to implement anything but cuts – is partly fuelling the disapproval ratings.

    I would very much like to see an approval/ disapproval rating analysed by government department e.g.
    Health
    Education
    Defence
    Economy
    etc.
    8-)

  17. “Eoin has judged the matter with his definitive certainty”

    It does not appear in the foreign policy manifesto of any future UK PM (imagine the reparations bill).

  18. Billy B,

    Blair had a ten year crack at running this country

    He went to war three times (Serbia/Kosovo, Afghan, Iraq). In addition he called half a dozen other countries ‘rogue states’

    Is it Stating the obvious to call him a rogue?

    We should copy the south of Ireland and remain neutral.

  19. Don’t forget Sierra Leone Eoin

    Billy Bob – I suppose I am in the Andy Burnham camp when it comes to Iraq.

    Amber – “Now it is clear, the building schools for the future program was to be used to pay for the free schools.” Indeed it is.

  20. @Sue

    “As Colin says, GWB got the news and sat there like a rabbit in the headlights. ”

    No.
    I didn’t say that.

    I said that I will never forget the look on his face. I admired him for continuing to listen to those children read until they had finished.

    He didn’t rush around-or out-it must have been the worst few moments of his life.

  21. @ Coiln

    Did you mean:

    “…and prey [on] those teeming masses [who] keep wanting the piles of useless dross that we now cannot live without”; or

    “…and pray those teeming masses keep wanting the piles of useless dross that we now cannot live without”

    Either would do. ;-)

    Was it: a Fruedian slip; a genuine pun; or evidence that someone not educated during the New Labour years can make errors in spelling etc.?
    8-)

  22. Roland

    You are just plain wrong. International surveys show significant improvements in educational standards since 1997. The TIMSS survey, the biggest international comparison of standards in the world, also shows English ten and fifteen year olds (the ages they survey) performing better in maths and science than all of the major participating European countries, English speaking countries and Scandinavian countries. Only a small number of Asian countries do better.

    I was with representatives of services education recently. Their perception of the relative literacy standards of squaddies was very, very different from yours. Your view is also very different from that of my father who was one of those who had to have additional education before gaining promotion – in the late 1950s / early 60s.

  23. I wouldn’t get too worried about funded PhD places going to foreigners who then go home. Start worrying much more if the world’s best graduates don’t want to come to UK institutions to do their PhDs.

    The other point to remember is that research councils don’t give money to students. They give money to universities to fund identifiable reaseach objectives – the taxpayer is paying for the research, and usually a couple of PhD places are just part of a broader research effort into an identified issue.

    It’s far better for the UK to develop high quality research teams using the best students than to close doors to overseas post grads just because they go home after their research.

  24. Eoin,

    Of the five only DA and EM have gone beyond the acceptable formula (If I had known then what we know now etc.).

    Casting the net wider in terms of potential PMs we have NC (don’t laugh). On record casting doubts about legality (in a heated exchange with JS from the dispatch box). Previous comments relating to national security will have been noted with due scrutiny.

    At a guess deputy PM is a courtesy title only, he has unfettered access to documents relating to electoral reform, his name appears precisely nowhere in the line of command.

  25. Eoin

    “More than 50% of studentships go to non Uk citizens.”

    So-our higher education system is substantially an international educational services business-with a bit of UK public service thrown in ?

  26. @Billy – “Also it could be something to do with the fact that UCAS is absoloutely hopeless…”

    It’s more to do with the fact that there is no cap on fees for overseas students. They bring in £2b annually to UK universities who would go bankrupt without them. I think I’m right in saying that foreign students pay a higher direct contribution than UK ones.

  27. EOIN

    “The content of their study might amuse you.”

    It just depresses me actually.

    Does it surprise me -absolutely not.

    Thanks for the insight Eoin.

  28. @NIGEL
    Thanks for that. Roland seems to fall all too easily into the ‘it was better in my day – it’s all fallen apart because of that political correctness’ view of recent history.
    Don’t expect mere facts and figures to change his opinion mind.

  29. @ Roland

    Do you want to comment about this university farce which has just occurred. I suppose its Goves fault.
    ——————————————————–
    Universities are not within Gove’s remit, unless I’m mistaken.

    BTW – “I suppose it’s Gove’s fault” would, I believe, be the correct punctuation. Gosh, schools were bad in your day.

    While I have your attention, would you like to take back your remark to Michael V re Labour was/ were? ;-)

  30. Alec,

    About 80% of current PhDs are funding direct from RCs. The delegation of spending power to faculties is only coming online now… (last year). In addition, qith that set to be the last RAE we have no way of knowing how they will be awarded in the future.

    Most projects are nominated by the students themselves and almost none are in teams. To be clear individually nominated prjects, by individuals.

    Your logic makes more sense when you get to bio-tech etc,,, but too few are in this area (and shrinking)

    As for what nationality completes them: frankly I could not care… I do think it would be valuable if these trained individuals stayed in the country.

  31. Colin – Sorry, I genuinely misunderstood you.

    Actually, I apologise.

    As it happens, at the time I was mildly ambivalent about Afghanistan and super cynical about Iraq. Daddies war left to finish was my opinion.

    I do think however, that when something like 9/11 happens I would rather chew off my babies arm than be the one sitting in the PM chair when it happens. The same with the credit crunch.

    Both times I remember clearly thinking “If I were TB/GB what would I do?” And the questions made me cold with horror.

    My own principles were clear, but I wasn’t privy to the information the most powerful Men in the world were privy to and I think there are probably about 10 or 12 people who can truly know what was at stake and why things took the course they did.

    Twas ever thus and ever thus will be.

  32. Colin,

    i was being rhetorical. In these hard times i can empathise within your disdain.

  33. @Colin – “So-our higher education system is substantially an international educational services business-with a bit of UK public service thrown in ?”

    See my last but one post – your missing the point about how research works. Its about the research, not the individual.

    Another point to realise is that many of the post grads will move to various institutions throughout their academic careers and there are many foreign born nationals now lecturing and researching in UK universities. The flows run in many directions.

  34. Alec,

    The foreign ones pay 11k fees per annum for U/G. Most come for funded P/G though so that 2bn figure would be shaky.

  35. Amber

    Not Freudian-can’t remember what I wrote.

    My spelling is poor-can’t be bothered now though.

    I meant the latter.

    It doesn’t surprise me that you think that the same thing as the former-nothing surprises me after those Political Compass scores.

    This is Terra Incognita-“here be dragons” :-)

  36. My local university likes Chinese students because they pay more.

  37. Re Educational standards:

    The school leavers from 89 to 2007 were the product of Maggie and John.

    It is only those who have left since 2007 and arguably, those who will leave in 2016 onwards on which we can gauge the relative success or failure of Labour policies.

    Certainly those who left between 89 and 2007 were let down enormously educationally at every stage. Their opportunities of success were eroded in almost every sphere.

    We will not know for some time if the extra funding, commitment to literacy and numeracy paid off or not.

  38. @Eoin – I’m well aware of the PhD scene – my wife is doing one. She’s in science and it’s very different to your subjects. It’s very much about teams and specific research areas.

    Your quoted figure of 80% research council funding is also a bit misleading – not many Phds are funded to the tune of £60K – only the ones with burseries attached, and these are rare creatures. The RCs might pay the fees, but that’s a much smaller payment.

  39. @eoin – Newsnight last night had a Canadian undergrad medical student at UCL paying £37,500 pa. The £2b figure came from the universities themselves, who are likely to know.

    Don’t know where the £11K figure you quote comes from, but universities can charge what they like – depends on the course and the uni.

  40. Roland/Sue,

    educational standards?

    Kids worked damned hard. They stress a lot about their exams. Their parents seem to car a lot.

    I mark 2-3,000 a-level papers per annum. I have done for 7 years. I work for AQA, CCEA, OCR and Edexcel.

    It would be wrong of me to compare them explicitly but there are comparisons.

    One of that four is remarkably daft about awarding grades…. “the only way is up so to speak”.

    On the whole I do think standards are improving it could be that kids understand the demands better or that they are better taught but the gradual improvement is genuine.

  41. I don’t understand why 9/11 always comes up as any sort of justification/explanation in a discussion about Iraq/TB/GWB. Only the Americans still think they are linked and we usually sneer at their ignorance.

    Iraq had nothing to do with 9/11, al Qaeda, threat to homeland security, etc. It was the cat to kick when there’s been a really sh1t day at work and I will never forgive Blair, Campbell, falconer, goldsmith et al for colluding to hitch our country up to the most pointless and baseless campaign in modern times.

  42. “Its about the research, not the individual. ”

    Thanks for explaining that Alec.

    I now understand the point of our Universities.

    And I had thought it was to educate our own brightest young people .

  43. Alec,

    I work at a Russell group. So does my partner. My son’s mother is an accountant with the same Uni. Perhaps my stats on the fees are Queen’s specific… the 11k was p.a.

    They might bring in £2bn – but that is not counted against what we fund in PhD stundentships. I can assure you

  44. EOIN! You’ve just inadvertently written a Daily Mail newspaper front page.
    Expect to see soon;

    UK TAXPAYERS PAYING FOREIGNERS TO STUDY USELESS SUBJECTS
    Under Labour, British taxpayers were paying MILLIONS in taxes to foreigners to study USELESS subjects in the UK.
    Some examples of UK taxpayer money wasted;
    A Brazilian was paid 60 thousand pounds to write about Irish ‘wakes’.
    A Polish student was given TENS OF THOUSANDS to write about Irish myths.
    A Greek was paid to write about the musical tastes of ancient GREEKS.
    After WASTING several HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS of taxpayers money, most of the students disappeared back to their own countries.
    blah blah blah

    Remember. You read it here first.

  45. Colin,

    I know of specific examples where our ‘brightest’ did not get funding because it went to a foreign student. That I am sad to say is a fact. The difference in their attainment levels was significant.

  46. Julian,

    Uh oh :( Shhh….

  47. @ Éoin, Alec & Colin

    Your posts about PhDs were anecdotal, Éoin. And second hand (hearsay) into the bargain.

    Please post links or evidence that supports the annecdotes you related vis a vis UK taxpayers funding the PhDs you mentioned. I, like Sue, would be very interested to read more on this topic. 8-)

  48. Sue

    “Actually, I apologise”

    Accepted.

    I admired Bush on 9/11-Afghanistan.

    After Clinton’s pathetic & ineffective responses to previous attacks against USA, Bush was clear minded & resolute.

    He gave the Taliban three (?) written warnings /opportunities to hand over the Bin Laden gang, and only acted after they refused.

    He owed the subsequent action to his people after 9/11, and the action was justified.

    He just forgot the history of Afghanistan-tribal, duplicitous, ungovernable, brigands living in a medieval mysoginistic culture . Utterley hopeless.

    Iraq was something else-maybe there was an element of finishing Dad’s war.
    I think we were all conned by Tony & George.

  49. My own Comprehensive was totally re-built. It got a new sports centre and set itself up as an adult education centre serving the surrounding area.

    The porta-cabins disappeared and the textbooks were renewed.

    My son (5) had a teacher and 2-3 teaching assistants focussing almost exclusively on teaching him and the other 23 children in his class to read and write and count.

    My “Baby” actually gets to go to nursery from early next year at three and is so excited he never stops talking about it, since my 5 year old has painted it as a cross between Disneyland and Mary Poppins.

    Some truly great steps forward IMHO.

  50. Amber,

    The government do not measure ‘stipends’ by nationality. Once you commit to residing in the UK that is that. You can lie about your address. I know two colleagues who pretended to live her to qualify for the domicile award pool. All the visa dept. care is that you are with a registered institution. Once you present the visa on enrollment day the Uni is satisified you meet the criteria.

    Mike N listed the student Visa stats and the discussion stemmed from there. These anecdotes make an uncomfortable read yes, but they do put colour to Mike N’s stats.

    I could as Nichola for a breakdown of our students by nationality at postgrad but since the troubles are Uni is very reluctant to collect deomograhpic data such as nationality for fear of being accused of sectarianism.

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