There is a new YouGov welsh poll for ITV Wales, full tables are here. Topline voting intentions with changes from YouGov’s poll last month are.

Assembly constituency: CON 22%(+2), LAB 39%(-1), LDEM 10%(-3), PC 23%(+1)
Assembly regional: CON 21%(+1), LAB 39%(+2), LDEM 9%(-5), PC 23%(-3)

UPDATE: By my reckoning, on a uniform swing this would give the Conservatives 12 assembly seats (nc), Labour 28 (up 2), the Liberal Democrats 5 (down 1), Plaid 14 (down 1) and 1 Independent.


359 Responses to “Latest Welsh voting intentions”

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  1. @Colin re: your post regarding Ed Balls.

    I don’t think you need worry over much about the Shadow Cabinet having members with differing views. Cameron, Osborne, Clegg and St. Vince had opposing policies, on dealing with the deficit , prior to the formation of the Coalition. That hasn’t stop them sitting along side each other around the Cabinet.

  2. “Oxbridge consists of two elite institutions – hardly a valid representation of the UK’s educational culture and attitudes toward education.”

    Sadly this is very true.

    Almost a term of abuse at BBC it is said.

  3. Colin,

    Doesnt our MPC deserve credit for pursuing this line already? In comparative terms it works out at approx 70% of what we pumped into the money market.

    Check the BBC page it has a very good graph which potentially illustrates that the US at least are headed for a double dip..

    In your view is a QE on that moderate scale in my view, enough to avoid it?

    Does this mean a weakenin gof the dollar vis a vis the Euro (and by implication us)? And wont that hit our exports and the manufacturing progress you mentioned earlier?

    In short: Colin, is America bout to sneeze?

  4. Valerie

    “I don’t think you need worry over much about the Shadow Cabinet ”

    Thank you so much- I have been terribly worried of late ;-)

  5. Colin,

    one other cursory note: the savings is a red herring to an extent, since the same phenomenon has been reported in most western economies. (Although I accpet it is probably a emasurable symptom of consumer confidence and likely retail growth in the future).

    I’ll be cheeky a suggest they implement a VAT holiday :P

  6. @Colin

    Well you had read Ed Ball’s speech in full.

  7. Richard/ Eoin.

    It looks depressing doesn’t it?

    Given the size & scope of their fiscal stimuli , it doesn’t do much for EB’s ideas.

    Angela seems to have the only right cards just now-and she was no fan of “imprudent stimuli”-giving our Gordon a bit of a lecture about it I seem to remember.

    I note Bernanke acknowledges “risks” attached to QE-I wish he ( or someone) would explain what they are.

    Does anyone really understand how /when QE activities will be reversed ? Ours is £200bn so far.

    Eoin-I don’t agree that increased savings are a “red herring”-they are a sign that consumers are concerned about their debt levels, and lack the confidence you refer to.

    That is economically…..and politically significant…as Obama must be more & more aware.

  8. @MIKE N
    Todays Daily Telegraph runs an article on page 10 which states that there is a 20% rise in immigrants “during Labours last year in office”, driven by the student visa “loophole”. It then produces further evidence to critisise Labours point based system. It goes on to say since 1997 to the end of Labours term of office 3.2 million immigrants have moved here. A recent study has shown England is the most overcrowded country in Europe. If anything is spurious it is the attitude that all this is fine because “I am a liberal and so what I am not English anyway”. Most people are not happy with it and see immigration as a very serious concern.

  9. Richard in Norway
    “…most likely the cap will be dropped and blues will try to foist the blame onto dems”

    Yes, this might be an outcome, but I think it would be too difficult for the Cons to ‘meekly’ accept ditching such an important policy.

  10. Richard in Norway

    Just soptted your second quick post – I agree.

  11. Colin,

    yes agreed. Sometimes people cite saving as a good thing- eg.. less risk of bust… prudent consumerism. As ironic as it may seem, we argued lax spending got us into this, but we envisage part of the solution that cosumers’ empty their savings accounts. Am I the only person who sees that irony?

    I know we disagree but Stimuli I will always regard as one of the primary functions of the state. As the coutnries biggest customer it is up to it to do what it takes. Reds historically have pursued this in peacetime but occasionally you blues fall into the trap of an arms race or a war and thus the similar spending on soldiers wages or war machinery creates the same stimulus. Peace or war- the state’s role is paramount.

    What are we going to do if there is a recession on sugarcandy mountain?

  12. @AMBER AND VALERIE
    It ill behoves two smug Labourites to find fault with Michael Gove after 3 months in office. The disgraceful fall in standards and ridiculous social engineering which Labour inflicted on the nations children should make you hang your heads in shame. Do you want to comment about this university farce which has just occurred. I suppose its Goves fault.

  13. ‘Cameron, Osborne, Clegg and St. Vince had opposing policies, on dealing with the defecit’

    It could be so Valerie, but I have not the faintest idea what that of Cameron’s was. I think he just left the presentation to Osborne during the election, as did Clegg to Cable. I am not convinced any of them had any real decided policy except generalities guided by their private idealogy, which is why they neglected to tell us what it was. You don’t get elected that way.

    In any case, Cable thought he would be working with Darling, Osborne hoped he would be on his own.

  14. Sorry about ‘deficit’ -looks bad the way I wrote it. Teach me not to write out quotes instead of pasting them.

  15. Roland
    I don’t understand why ‘immigration’ worries you. I thoughht you had done what I did and moved to where that are hardly any?

    Haven’t you got any plumbing needs fixing?

  16. @ROLAND
    Yes the 20% rise in students is indicated in the latest annual and quarterly national statistics on immigration published today. Also see my earlier post with an extract from that doc providing the figures.

    “It then produces further evidence to critisise Labours point based system.”

    What further evidence are you referring to? Indeed, I don’t agree that the increase in student numbers implies anything fundamentally amiss. Do you or The Telegraph have evidence that there are many thousands of bogus students entering the UK?

    That the last government under good ol’ Gordy implemented the points based system (which is modelled on the Australian one) shows that it recognised that immigration needs to be controlled.

    The PBS is fair. If it needs tweaking every now and then (e.g. to close loopholes) that’s fine with me.

  17. howard

    plumbing is one of the skills in short supply, so i’ve heard

    i’m sure that roland is much too polite to need any plumbing

  18. @HOWARD
    Sorry I dont see any humour in the immigration policies of the previous government. Just because I dont live amoung it, does not make me approve of it.

  19. Richard in Norway
    How does politeness, protect ones lavatory pan or boiler from leaking?

  20. Below is my take on English attitudes to immigration. I worked hard in my time there to listen to people since ti was something they seemed to care deeply about. Please forgive any generalisations if they are wrong I apoligise. It is simply the feelings I have picked up from those who I listened to, while the epxressed strong feelings on these matters.

    I think those that ‘love’ Englland, cherish its cullture and share a deep interest in its past history worry that if a lot of people move to England with not vested its past, no empathy for its culture or historic achievements then all will be lost. This is escially prevalent in those who have been good citizens worked hard and tried to invest something back into the future of their country.

    They worry that Pakistani’s with radical Ideas and more interest Kashmiri independance than keeping the pound might be all too plentiful sometime soon. They are even more worried when they see the moral decay in their own cities whilst ‘foreigners’ are seen to get on quicker, have larger families and get a fairer deal out of the benefit system.

    I think the youth with less prospects worry that immigrants will get all the jobs due to their longer training in the skilled occupations and their reputation for working harder for less.

    The older one gets and the longer one is out of work, the more heightened these worries become.

    If your middle aged and of good economic standing, perhaps with a professional occupation- you dont fell threatened by any of these worries. Your more socialist than patriotic so you care less about historic acheivements and more about equality of opportunity…

    You are perhpas bewildered by the real ale campaign, since you prefer a french bordeaux.

  21. Haha Billy Bob, you are starting to see in EB what I started to see.

    Roland – I refrained from mentioning the immigration figures. The truth is it’s a problem WHICHEVER gov is in. There is absolutely nothing they can do about EU immigration so I thought making a political point would be cheap.

  22. @ Roland 5:18

    Yes, my generation is just a swathe of ill-educated, underachieving socially engineered marxist zombies…..

    or

    Perhaps there was actually more than just a modicum of improvement in education under Labour, maybe not to the extent that was hyped in 1997, but significant nonetheless. Labour were elected in my first year in secondary school and I certainly noticed the improvements in my own educational experiences.

    Granted, not everything was perfect and perhaps the state got too heavily involved, but it’d be nice to sometimes hear a more balanced appraisal of the educational system’s state rather than a load of hyperbole about dumbing down and social engineering.

  23. correction! *Labour was elected

  24. @ROLAND
    A genuine question. What is it exactly that makes you so worried about immigration?

  25. Billy Bob – I’m amazed to see anyone even TRY to challenge the “Iraq Truths”. If it helps at all, GWB stayed on Air Force One for WAY too long on Sep 11th. No-one quite knows where he was, but BBC news reported it landing 3 full hours before CNN admitted it.
    Some say he planned to push the button…..
    Remember TB rushing around Syria and goodness knows where that week with a copy of the Qur’an under his arm??

  26. MICHAEL V
    OK people are leaving school with a fantastic education these days, no dumbing down of exams and no breast beating because kids from families who care a damn do better than from families who think school is for sissys. Happy now.

  27. eoin & colin

    i’ve been thinking about the problems in the US a lot today(fortunately i have a boring manual labour job, so i have a
    lot of time to think) it seems to be much more than a sneeze, more like pneumonia. there is no good data coming out apart from companies being awash with cash(and i’m not sure that’s a good thing, seems certain to be used on mergers ie a new equity bubble)

    that they need more stimulus seems obvious, but where do they get the money from. they could borrow but with so many sovereign borrowers chasing the same cash, rates on debts must start to rise soon. i could go though all the different things they could do but every option they have is difficult

    the IMF appears to have a policy of “no bailouts unless another country puts up half” i wonder if that’s because they are saving their money for a rescue of the worlds biggest economy

    also the coordinated worldwide deficit reduction program, i have suspected for some time that this was to control the price of oil but today i began to wonder if it was about freeing up funds for US borrowing

    it seems certain to me that the world is going to have to help the US out, there was talk about a few years ago that the US economy was not so important anymore, but i really don’t think that’s true yet. however positive indicators from around the globe suggest that the world economy can recover even though the US is in recession, i don’t belive this has happened before

    as wayne would say interesting times

  28. Roland – Do define the “disgraceful fall in educational standards” you mention. I’d love to hear it. Just where have standards dropped?

  29. michael V

    re-correction! *Labour were elected”

    it was nice to see some proper english like wot me mum talks

  30. Eoin

    We are not apart on principle re State activities-only on scope , degee & relevance.

    re ” What are we going to do if there is a recession on sugarcandy mountain?”

    Its not going to help-but only 10% of our exports are to USA. Our last export figures were excellent-look to India & China for our salvation-and prey those teeming masses keep wanting the pilesof useless dross that we now cannot live without ;-)

  31. Richard

    excellent post

    a few days ago listed the 8 what ifs in order of likeliehood that could bring down this coalition… (see below)

    _________
    What ifs?

    1. Iran/Kashmir/N Korea?
    2. Another unexpected global recession
    3. A pandemic illness
    4. Terrorist related events
    5. An internal coup
    6. Labour resurgence under a charasmatic leader
    7. Sleaze
    8. Europe

    __________

    Your post is a plausible scenario for no. 2.

    As far as I can see debt (and accetable levels of it) is intrinsicly linked to confidence. It is a bit like Free-Presbyerianism you do not have to go very far to find someone who will tell you that Obama is the antiChrist and the sky is going to fall down and so on.

    America and the UK could if it wanted to absorb the national debt comfortably. debt has not held back growth before and it need not again. It is when a chinese whisper starts an those who talk the economy down that problems begin. If the US went belly up- I doubt there is much the IMF could do about it.

    Marxist theory suggests that the collapse of the US is inevitable. In a manner akin to their Free P colleagues the think that capitalism has a life span which is near nigh up.

    What I think is required is sustained stimulus until we are certainly out. Silence over the deficit in the meantime. And a new law against politicians talking their own economies down…

    Some of these rating agencies are playing god with various countries. How did it ever get this bad?

  32. Roland – In fact, thinking about it, I’ll share my own experience shall I? when I was six Maggie stopped my nice little bottle of milk. When I was 11 I went to a secondary school with outside loos where our lessons were in portacabins and we shared textbooks between 5. Classes were regularly 35+. First they cancelled sport classes, then drama then art.
    The year I went to college, they stopped the grant.
    The year I went to Uni – you guessed it – they stopped the grant. My “one on one tutorial” became 12 per a seminar. My lecture hall held 80, there were regularly 140 of us. The vast majority of my uni’s funding came from alumni and foreign students.

    I respect you Roland, because you are prepared to admit when something works and where it doesn’t.

  33. Colin/Richard,

    On a side note- take a look at what the US are proposing as their fourth option. It would make a monetarist turn blue (if they are not already).

  34. Julian and Sue

    Those are two trolls for Roland in the last hour!

    The country is going to the dogs and that’s that. No good discussing it, just accept that Gillian Duffy knows a thing or two.

    I think that it is almost impossible for librrtarian or left wing politicians to engage voters on these subjects, as to point out to voters that they are stupid, biased, ignorant, mistaken or any other label will not get one elected.

    So it’s mealy mouthed plaintive pleading and the right wing just sit back and enjoy the fun.

  35. ….and from ME today:

    “High streets are seeing the most widespread price increases for nearly two decades, adding to fears over rising inflation…..the Bank of England expects CPI inflation to remain stubbornly at 3% or above this year …and this month was forced to revise its forecasts to suggest that inflation will not drop back to target until 2012.

    The Times

  36. @SUE
    What are the literacy levels now compared to 50 years ago. (When I went to school.)

    Because for the all the throwing money at education, what standards are reached for the average child? I am aware the super bright do better than in my day, but what off the ordinary and what of the dense?
    The vast majority are leaving school with a very poor standard of education.

  37. @Sue Marsh

    Fwiw I sat up very late that night and heard a reporter live in Kabul as a cruise missile tootled past his hotel window (BBC WorldService – it didn’t make it on to any subsequent bulletin).

  38. MIKE N

    “Indeed, I don’t agree that the increase in student numbers implies anything fundamentally amiss”

    So can you explain to the UK students who cannot get a university place, why 90,000 more foreign student visas were issued last year ( 35% up to 360,000) , and why that is not “amiss”?.
    If you can -could you explain it to me too please .

    313,000 of those foreign “students” were from outside EU & they brought with them 31,000 “dependents ” The figures for the previous year were 235,000 & 25,000.

    I have read that there has been abuse of the system to bring families into UK undercover of the student arrangements. Given the further increase in these numbers last year, do you think there might be something still “amiss” here ?

    What makes you think that UK needed the additional 190,000 net immigrant population it received last year? Given our unemployment levels-can you explain how this makes sense? What do you think were the knock on effects for housing & public services?

    England-where I live-, is heading for 2nd most densly populated country in Europe. Can you give me any crumbs of comfort on the adverse environmental effects of the 3 million net additional people that have come to UK in the last 13 years?

  39. Roland – Overall education standards are so much better than the 50s it’s like comparing English cricket of the early 90s to English cricket today.

    My Mum went to a “secondary modern”.

    She failed the 11+ and was consigned to the dustbins of society, studying “needlework” “cooking” and various forms of “good wifeliness”.

    She went on to night school and got 7 ‘O’ Levels.

    Get a grip and criticise where due.

    (Incidentally, I substituted something MUCH ruder for “good wifeliness” but thought I should reign in my filth)

  40. @COLIN“So can you explain to the UK students who cannot get a university place, why 90,000 more foreign student visas were issued last year ( 35% up to 360,000) , and why that is not “amiss”?. If you can -could you explain it to me too please .”
    Yes. Foreign students pay. Universities need money. If we want it to stop, perhaps we could think about giving them more funding, not cutting it.
    “I have read that there has been abuse of the system to bring families into UK undercover of the student arrangements. “
    You shouldn’t believe everything you read. ;)
    “England-where I live-, is heading for 2nd most densly populated country in Europe….adverse environmental effects….”
    In world terms we’re not densely populated. It’s nice to see you’re concerned about environmental problems although I think decreasing the UK population a bit isn’t really going to solve them, is it?

  41. Billy Bob – I was watching when the news of the attacks came through. TB was due a drubbing at some union conference and I was waiting to see what happened.

    It didn’t come and didn’t come.

    As Colin says, GWB got the news and sat there like a rabbit in the headlights.

    TB got the news and suddenly aides were rushing everywhere.

    Watching their subsequent reactions, there was no doubt in my mind whatsoever at the time who the statesman was.

    Isolation or hang on to those coat tails for all he was worth, Qur’an in hand and charm at the forefront?

    Just like the Credit Crunch, it’s easy to forget just how much worse it could have been.

  42. @Colin – If you want a low tax burden then you stop student grants, and related funding.
    Colleges and Unis must chase the income (fees from foreign students).
    A friend of mine runs an independent language school (a very good one), not sure how he voted at the GE, but he was very angry about all the new controls brought in by the last government.

  43. @JULIAN GILBERT
    I have answered this what seems like 1000 times. In brief, Indian Hindus working hard making loadsamoney, kids 12 A* PhD in nuclear physics , great. Romanian big issue seller not great, we can produce our own big issue sellers. West Indian whose grandpa came in 1954, thinks he is as English as the next man, great. Pakistani who will not let his 45 year old wife speak English not great, and should be stopped. Political correctness has blighted integration and our terms of what it means to be British have never been articulated and enforced. Result , poor sense of what Laszlo calls solidarity. In the light of our foreign wars over the last 13 years, we are clutching a viper to our bosom. More hyperbole and hysterics of course until another bus blows up in Catford, or the Taliban that kills a another British soldier has a Bradford accent.

  44. eoin

    what’s the fourth option? FDR? printing press?

    i wrote a long post in reply to your last but it got eaten by CAPTCHA maybe i’ll try again later

  45. Roland – Actually, I think that’s a rather brilliant assessment of immigration.

  46. @ Sue Marsh – Listening to *Robin* Williams (Mork) today… the expirience of being an American under GWB, and then Obama, is like recovering from a heart attack

  47. So we should have an immigration system to make sure we get the ones with PhDs in nuclear physics and avoid the Big Issue sellers? A points system perhaps?
    It seems you agree with Labour’s immigration policy.

  48. It’s Roland who apparently agrees with Labour’s immigration policy. ;)

  49. Julian/Colin

    A little known phenomenon that I should point out.

    More than 50% of studentships go to non Uk citizens.

    Given that a studentship is aprox £55-60k over three years to write a PhD, it is not an inconsiderable amount.

    In situations such as these- we pay the foreigner that money, which could go to one of our own bright students.

    I am not judging it, but merely rebalancing Julian’s point.

  50. Now then, as for my little Leadership experiment,

    What matters most, what they say or what they do?

    Does it matter who says it the best if none of them DO anything about it?

    Watch this space……

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