There is a new YouGov welsh poll for ITV Wales, full tables are here. Topline voting intentions with changes from YouGov’s poll last month are.

Assembly constituency: CON 22%(+2), LAB 39%(-1), LDEM 10%(-3), PC 23%(+1)
Assembly regional: CON 21%(+1), LAB 39%(+2), LDEM 9%(-5), PC 23%(-3)

UPDATE: By my reckoning, on a uniform swing this would give the Conservatives 12 assembly seats (nc), Labour 28 (up 2), the Liberal Democrats 5 (down 1), Plaid 14 (down 1) and 1 Independent.


359 Responses to “Latest Welsh voting intentions”

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  1. Eoin

    Just read the EB speech in full.

    How does he get to be Shadow Chancellor if DM is leader with that policy?

  2. Colin,

    Good Q. I think the consensus is now that Ed M will take it. If that was the case it would be quite straight forward.

    We elect our shadow cabinet so there is still a chance Ed B could be shooed in as chancellor.

    Much more likely however is that Ed B would not go for the post in light of D M’s victory, should it occur.

    I suspect Liam Byrne would end up with it.

  3. Eoin

    Thanks

    Ah-I had forgotten the election of Labour Shadow Cabinets.

  4. Eoin

    Some more of the poll that YouGov did for Demos in the weeks after the election has come out. As it happens it’s on immigration:

    ht tp://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/YG-Archives-Pol-Demos-immigration-210510.pdf

    If you look at the responses you’ll see there is a significant, but not large, difference on immigration between “Loyal Labour” and those they lost from 2005. Non voters also show similarity to “Lost Labour” (there must be a lot of overlap of course).

    Having said that the overall attitudes to immigration are still pretty liberal (only Others take the hardest line – presumably UKIP and BNP).

    So it looks as if immigration may have some effect on voting behaviour, but not a massive one. It’s difficult to put figures on it till we get the full survey (I think it’s due September)

  5. @Roland Haines and David1,

    I don’t disagree with you, though Vietnam had something to do with the Cold War perhaps.

    TB would not have been able to fence-sit. A united front with Chirac and Schroeder et al might have been effective, on the other hand it could have been counter-productive forcing wounded US sensibilities in a more volatile direction. Our joint security apparatus would have made a rupture of that kind highly problematical.

    Chenney’s offer of a get out in December 2002 was a crucial moment. However, behind the scenes efforts on the part of some Tories earlier that year to outflank Blair in support of neocon strategy did in part reduce his room for manoeuvre (apols for that partisan point, but rightly or wrongly it was a factor).

  6. Roger,

    Thank you- by difference do you mean disloyal are more likely to consider immigration a factor? Logic would dictate that but I am just confirming…?

    Also – how significant? I have come to discover that what an Irish man regards as significant is a little less that those on the other island… (glass half full an all that)

  7. The figures show that 567,000 moved to the UK in 2009. This compares with 590,000 in 2008.

    So, immigration is declining not increasing.

    The new points based system introduced unde Labout is beginning to have an effect.

  8. @MIKE N
    According to a Polish newspaper’s article I’ve just read, Poles working in the UK and Ireland went down by as much as 22% in 2009.
    They don’t put it down to any change in the system though. They say it’s due to the worsening crisis in the UK and Ireland (‘on the islands’ as they say in Polish) and the fact that the economic situation in Poland is comparatively good.

  9. Julian

    Poles aren’t affected by the points based system.

  10. MIKE N
    You’re right. :)
    Still, it’s a big reduction in the amount of them coming to the UK and Ireland, isn’t it?

  11. Mike N,

    Is there any breakdown as to where those .5 million people came from?

  12. Immigration – signs of a split in the coaliton on this issue beginning to emerge

    See http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2010/aug/27/immigration-vince-cable-growth

  13. Julian

    Do you have any figures other than 22% reduction between 2009 and 2008? How many Poles are/were in Ireland? Ditto for the UK.

    Eoin

    No – but I’m looking.

  14. Immigration – signs of a split in the coaliton on this issue beginning to emerge

    See h ttp://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2010/aug/27/immigration-vince-cable-growth

  15. Julian,

    I wonder hwo good the data is on tracking polls coming here. In my area I know many personally i kid you not. More Michaels in Ireland that ever before. The ones I know do bar work, mechancis, building and retail. They are all in rental and their wages are mostly ‘cash in hand’. I fail to see the paper trail. Unless their government is keeping tabs at the other end?

  16. Julian

    Me bad “Poles” :(

  17. I’m not sure where they got the figures from. I can try and find out.
    But I would be surprised if they were keeping track at their end too.

  18. Immigration figures can be found at:
    h ttp://rds.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds/pdfs10/hosb1510.pdf

    Lots of interesting stats. From page 21…

    In 2009, 160,765 non-EEA nationals (including their dependants) were admitted whose main
    purpose was to work, compared with 183,010 in 2008, down 12 per cent. Of those, 49 per cent
    (79,060) were admitted under the Points Based System (work tiers); 9 per cent (14,190) as
    work permit holders; and 20 per cent (32,705) as Points Based System (work tiers) or Work
    Permit Holder dependants. 22 per cent (34,810) were admitted in other work categories. EEA
    nationals are not required to have a work permit.
    Of the total of those admitted whose main purpose is to work (including their dependants) in
    2009, 48 per cent (76,615) were from Asia (including 30 per cent (48,340) from the Indian subcontinent);
    24 per cent (38,305) were from the Americas; 14 per cent (22,760) from Oceania; 10
    per cent (16,460) from Africa; and 4 per cent (6,545) from Europe.
    Since 2004 the total number of persons (including their dependants) admitted to the UK to work
    has decreased by 31 per cent from 232,645 to 160,765 in 2009. Some of this decrease may be
    due to countries joining the EEA in May 2004 and January 2007; however, there have also been
    significant decreases in passengers arriving from Africa, Oceania and the ‘Remainder of Asia’

  19. Reading between the lines of my exploration of the issues facing TB during the Iraq crisis, and bearing in mind the biography of various Labour leaders, leads me with regret, to the conclusion that certain considerations allow for David Miliband being a potential candidate for PM, and Ed not.

  20. Mike N

    “24 per cent (38,305) were from the Americas; 14 per cent (22,760) from Oceania; 10
    per cent (16,460) from Africa; and 4 per cent (6,545) from Europe”.

    Thanks.

    Thats c.52%. I wonder where the other 48% are from? Asia? Asia is a big place.

  21. Mike N,

    I would imagine the sub-continent permits are almost impossible to deny due to the fact that many have family links here.

    I wonder what % of our immigrants are white aussies, americans, south africans?

  22. Eoin (1:27pm)

    It’s more that that the “Lost Labour” are less sympathetic to immigration and immigrants remaining in Britain if you look at the agreement to responses to the various questions asked.

    I’ll not quote the options as they’re quite long; but for, example, the support for the immigration-on-balance-bad option is 28% for Loyals, but 36% for Lost and 37% for non-voters. That sort of percentage should be significant with the sub-sample sizes involved (it’s a big survey) but is still less than the figure for all Tories at 44%. (Obviously this will include some Lost Labours as well).

  23. Eoin
    “I wonder where the other 48% are from? Asia? Asia is a big place.”

    “I wonder what % of our immigrants are white aussies, americans, south africans?”

    Can’t find a definition of ‘Asia’.

    Then doccument is 139 pages and full of stats and information….

  24. @EOIN
    The data seems to be from Polish embassies. How they work it out, I’ve no idea.
    According to the Polish embassy in Ireland, the number of Poles in the Republic at the moment is thought to be between 180 and 200 thousand, as against around 230 -250 thousand 18 months ago.
    If correct, that’s a pretty hefty reduction.

  25. Julian,

    From my experience, the ones heading home are those with families. I had a couple of good friends that have argued our education system is quite inferior (MAths & Science) and jumped ship for that reason. I also have friends whose wife and child have gone home but the partner stayed and posts the money home (in whatever manner I do not know). The 18-35 bracket are very much still here I have experienced.

  26. Numbers entersing the UK to study show year on year increases.

    Around 269,880 non-EEA (and Switzerland) nationals were admitted to the United Kingdom (UK) in 2009
    to study, an increase of 19 per cent on the previous year. Persons admitted under student visitor rules accounted for around 197,725 additional arrivals. When added together, these data show a 25 per cent rise in the total number of non-EEA nationals
    entering the UK whose purpose is to study.

  27. @eoin
    if you cross reference with the recent employment statistics it looks like it would be predominantly India (although I may be assuming wrongly)

    Interesting piece on the (supposedly) non-political Migration Watch website – nearly 80% of the increase in employed from Q1 to Q2 this year comprised of immigrants…
    Of 200k or so extra employed, roughly 50k UK, 50k from initial EU14, 50k from the next EU8 (Poland, etc) and then of the remaining 50k from the rest of the world over 30,000 were from India (by nationality and birth)

  28. Roger,

    Thanks- I’d call that significant- Very informative.

    Hooded Man

    Thanks

    Indians (as opposed to Pakistanis) are of immense benefit to our economy. Their ethic and disposition to education leading to business orientated subjects is second to none- and I mean none. We are very lucky that they want to come to our state.

  29. @MIKE N
    Yes, the increase appears to be from students.
    @EOIN
    It’s a widely held belief among Poles that the UK education system is bad.
    Wouldn’t like to comment if they’re right or not. ;)

  30. IMO the immigration cap has the makings of a major issue between the coalition parties, or at the very least with VC. Is this an issue on which he could resign?

  31. So, it seemes to me that immigration is far from out of control as (spuriously) claimed by some.

  32. @MIKE N
    No politician ever got elected by promising to increase immigration.

  33. @ Julian Gilbert -“It’s a widely held belief among Poles that the UK education system is bad.”

    Not sure if blaming the education system is really the point. I think there is cultural component. Many strengths… but somehow lacking something in that deparment. Intelligence not widely valued.

  34. @JULIAN
    True. :-)

  35. @BILLY BOB
    You’re onto something there. In the UK we almost have an anti-education culture, IMO. Why study, get yourself a proper job, lazy students blah blah blah.
    In Poland, further education is really important.

  36. Julian,

    I can confirm that.. I have too Polish female friends with whom my acquaintance pre-dates Polish entry to the EU. Both are Doctors (of philosophy) through German Universities. I have it on their word that there is a drive in Poland for language skills and advancement beyond simply undergraduate stage.

  37. A Polish friend of mine expressed severe doubts when the present Polish Finance minister was announced.
    He’s not even a professor, he said.
    It seems government ministers are traditionally professors in Poland.
    BTW, the said Polish minister of finance was educated at Westminster School. ;)

  38. Julian,

    Lol. Maybe they would have some use for Brown? His intellect seemed to impede him here. We like ‘numpties’ better.

  39. Gove’s policies on education have had a lukewarm response. Despite the £25k on offer to schools who sign up to become academies. Free schools? Few genuinely interested enquiries.

    Toby Young was full of it before the election, writing in the Guardian about his plans to start a free school. Since the possibilty has become real, he has been remarkably quiet on the subject – unless I have missed something.

    Meanwhile, no flesh has been put on the bones of the pupil premium idea much vaunted by the Dems. Education, education, procrastination. 8-)

  40. Amber,

    Your second point is very very pertinent. The inclusion of the PP was a sop to the SDP faction. Free market Libs were not the impetus behind it. Thus, if it is seen to gather dust on some shelf it will surely be to the detriment of leftist MPs hopes for re-election. If one returns to the LDs four demands for coalition, they will abserve the lack of progress made, or likely to be made.

    1. “Investing extra funds in education through a pupil premium for disadvantaged children.”

    2. “Tax reform, taking 4 million out of tax and raising taxes on the rich by requiring capital gains and income to be taxed at the same rate.”

    3. “Rebalancing of the economy to put less emphasis on centralised banking and more on a new greener economy.”

    4. “Political reforms, including changes to the voting system and a democratically elected Lords, that go further than proposed by Labour.”

    They ring very hollow now don’t they?

  41. Amber,

    Perhaps I should listen to Jon and hold fire on the yellows. I think he is planning some grand centrist love in with them.

  42. ‘ UK education system ‘

    Oxbridge is bad?

  43. Amber-according to the FT article, Free School interest is ok-cash is the problem :-

    Extracts :-
    “The first wave of the Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition’s “revolution” in education will involve only about a dozen new schools – falling far short of the Tories’ pre-election plans”
    “When the Tories first set out their school plans in 2007, the party had planned for a first year budget for free schools of £428m. They then assumed an annual budget in years to follow of £525m. This year’s tight capital budget makes the obstacles facing new schools far harder to overcome”

    “With only £50m to fund capital costs for the first year of new free schools, Michael Gove, education secretary, limited the first wave to no more than 20 schools.”
    “The rate at which applications from school groups are arriving in the department is growing, officials said, with 20 received in the past week. Department insiders expect a further 50 free schools to open in 2012 and 100 more in 2013”
    “Officials believe that the size of the capital budget allocated to the free schools push, not a lack of demand from schools groups, will determine whether the government is able to stick to its 220,000 free school places target over 10 years “

  44. @ Jack

    Oxbridge consists of two elite institutions – hardly a valid representation of the UK’s educational culture and attitudes toward education.

  45. @Amber

    I have a frend who works as a senior adviser for an northern metropolitan LEA. In her experience most schools are happy for LEA’s to do the spadework necessary for a school to function successfully. She says schools recognise LEA’s have the expertise and resources, which, individually, they lack. No schools have come forward in her LEA to take Gove’s shilling!
    8-)

  46. mike n

    IMO the immigration cap has the makings of a major issue between the coalition parties, or at the very least with VC. Is this an issue on which he could resign?

    the cap is more likely to be a problem for the blues(have stopped writing Tories ‘cos it’s just not nice) their business supporters are not happy, they need the skilled workers. sadly some skills are in short supply in the uk

    most likely the cap will be dropped and blues will try to foist the blame onto dems

  47. Jack Michael,

    We have about 310 FE/HE institutions. Especially in the last ten years we are developing a weird fixation with ranking them. It seems we are jealous of the Ivy league. Some of our Unis are now in the Russell Group. This has added to the heirarchical nature of things. Aside from the old snobbry of red brick and former polys we are now ranking Uni by department rather than institution. Frankly, it is a mess.

    Equality in education is the greatest gift we can give to our children. Unfortanately it only exists (relatively speaking) up until the age of 18.

    I work with the institute of educational assessors. They do a very good job at equalising standards accross 11-18.

    Above the age of 18 I have known professors to mark scripts simply by sliding them down a banister to see which one goes the furthest. I am sure everyone who has been to Uni has an anecdote about a professor who never give anyone over 50.

    I teach at a Russell. One of the latest rends is not to award first class hons. in case we devalue them. This means I cannot award a mark over 68. The Germans and the French are much further ahead of us.

  48. just thought a little more. of course they can’t drop the immigration cap, they will water it down instead. even so the dem’s could end up getting the blame

  49. Bernanke :-

    BBC :-

    “…..the recovery had slowed to “a pace somewhat weaker” than forecast.(Only hours earlier, the US Commerce revised down its estimate of second quarter GDP growth to 1.6%, from 2.4% previously.)

    Fed would take further “unconventional” measures if needed.Top of the list was more “quantitative easing” – mass purchases of debt.Mr Bernanke was keen to emphasise the apparent success of earlier quantitative easing – including the purchase of $1.25 trillion worth of mortgage debt – in lowering borrowing costs.The Fed already decided to extend this policy on 10 August, when it announced that any mortgage repayments it received on its investment would be reinvested in US government bonds.

    He said the unorthodox policy options each contained risks and would only be used if the outlook worsened further.

    Mr Bernanke expressed particular surprise at the rise in the savings rate of US consumers, and the sharp rise in the US trade deficit.”

  50. colin

    sounds like we need a Marshall plan for the states

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