There is a new YouGov welsh poll for ITV Wales, full tables are here. Topline voting intentions with changes from YouGov’s poll last month are.

Assembly constituency: CON 22%(+2), LAB 39%(-1), LDEM 10%(-3), PC 23%(+1)
Assembly regional: CON 21%(+1), LAB 39%(+2), LDEM 9%(-5), PC 23%(-3)

UPDATE: By my reckoning, on a uniform swing this would give the Conservatives 12 assembly seats (nc), Labour 28 (up 2), the Liberal Democrats 5 (down 1), Plaid 14 (down 1) and 1 Independent.


359 Responses to “Latest Welsh voting intentions”

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  1. Hooded Man – Very good idea, maybe I’ll start a Facebook campaign : “Tony Blair” the Payback Tour”

    He could pay off the LP debt pretty sharpish

  2. @Hooded Man, Barney Crockett & Eoin – I find your responses very sad but not surpriing and you’ve rather missed the point.

    Yes – parties would go bankrupt. Good.

    Have they provided us with well thought through, courageous and radical government that represent the greatest good for the greatest number of people? I think not.

    Increasingly in recent years we have had governments beholden to the golden money men (and yes, it is predominantly men) and as a result we have seen politics turned into a branch of business management with – lets be honest – utterly disastrous results, from first the Tories and then Labour.

    I really believe that the three of you, as party members or just having an interested in politics, should have a greater confidence in the people around you. We need a revolution in democratic politics where ideas lead the way, not money. Call it The Big [Political] Society if you like.

    Under my proposals, no people means no politics – what better way to bring representational politics back to the constituencies it is meant to represent?

  3. Martyn,

    1983-7 is on IPSOS archive’s web[age. The Guardian also has a bank of ICM’s from the period. I am sure Gappul or NOP if they polled that period would be on their sites.

    ps. I like your sign off “rgds’.

  4. Martyn,

    Gallup of course*. The old Harris may also have polls from then… although I doubt it.

  5. @Sue – This morning I have decided to send George Osborne and David Cameron an invitation to an exclusive dinner with my wife and I.

    They will be able to discuss first hand and exclusively our personal goals and business strategy for the next five years and get detailed analysis of our policy thinking in these critical areas. So long as they’re not allergic to cats and dogs it should be fine, but if they are they’ll have to wait until the extension is finished.

    They can sign up for the meal by paying an ‘Alec’s Gold Club’ membership fee of £37.50. If this is beyond their budgets they can join us and a small group of friends in the pub for £12 plus a couple of packets of dry roasted nuts.

  6. Eoin/Amber et al

    So far, all the men are failing my test abysmally :(

    Actually, Ed Balls potentially winning, but inadvertently.

  7. Alec – Fantastic!! I think you should!

    Except I think you should charge £2000 and make sure you buy poor quality catering chicken (just as most “events” do)

    You should also invite Nick and Miriam, Sam Cam and whichever life form sustains GO. Maybe DM and missus, just for balance.

    You’d then raise 16k for your chosen cause – Radical Tax Overhaul UK – you might also plant a few seeds.

  8. Sinn Féín hav organised speaking tours in the United States since 1918/9. G Adams commands fees that frankly make Cameron’s £2,000 look like tuppence. DC is PM- the last thing he wants to do is give up nights to sit beside God knows who…

    Also in my experience the one’s who pay the money do so to tell the grandchildren: “Do you know I had dinner with Big Gerry”. Soccer clubs do the same: “chance to meet the players”. When I turn up to a Celtic dinner it is not to disauade Neil Lennon from selling mCgeady- It’s just cool to have dinner with the hoops players in the Jock Stein suite.

    I would not lost much sleep about it. It is always going to happen. Frankly, if Labour were better at it we would not be £20mill in debt.

    Now when can I have dinner with Hatty Harman?

  9. @alec

    If individuals or businesses are rich/daft enough to pay £50,000 to dine with Cameron or £2,000 for a meal with ministers then down to them, as long as it is not seen to influence policy/law in the way it did for million buck Bernie.

    It is important not to conflate lobbying and party funding. Whilst I am not naive enough to see them as distinct and discrete, there are laws and measures in place which ought to ensure that at least wrongdoers are caught. Cash for access is not really a problem if there is a market for it, compared to cash for personal honours, or far worse, cash for policy which benefits the donor’s personal, legal or business position.

    Your own suggestion anyway is not wholly different to how parties currently raise funds – £20 for cheese and wine, etc. Just with all due respect I don’t think as many would pay to dine with you and your wife, nor equally for dinner Chez Mrs and Mrs Hooded Man :lol:

  10. My goodness. I’m sure Keir is turning in his grave.

    Cash for access.

    How does Mrs Bingo from Birmingham who’s always dreamed of meeting the PM go about it?

    How does Master Student from Sollihull?

    This just reinforces (AGAIN) that politics is an elite business, where those with 2k get to sit with our policy makers, and those with £2.50 get to watch through the windows, peering in at the fancy fellas.

    The fact that so many are fine with that, I find surprising.

    Still, I shall not rattle my red sabre ineffectively, I shall post my suggestion on the Big Society page or some-such, that the three leaders offer tickets, every month, to a “Peoples Dinner” A lottery, where those geeky enough to be interested get to “win” a chance to have the same privilege as the fat cats. For Free.

  11. @Eoin – you’ve actually made a very important point that in my mind backs up my argument.

    Perhaps if republican political parties had not had access to large US funders, who were insulated from the violence and human degradation the troubles represented and who failed to fully appreciate that the violence was destroying a troubled society, maybe they would have had to re evaluate their politics earlier than they did and we could have got on with the business of peace years earlier.

    I don’t want to get bogged down in a debate over Irish political history, but it was extremely telling that decommissioning only occurred after the Twin Towers attack and the IRA Columbia arrests, when republican supporters in the US suddenly realised the IRA killed people and that terrorism wasn’t very nice.

    It was on September 11th itself when the US government special envoy to Northern Ireland jabbed his finger into Gerry Adams chest and said he could “f*ck off” if any American was killed with IRA weapons sold to the Columbian rebels. At this point Adams knew they had no support in America and the war was over.

    In the UK the influence of money over politics gives us bad government. In NI it killed people. I won’t meekly accept it as the way it’s always been done as people on the left have historically challenged the status quo and it’ been the only way we have made any progress down the ages.

  12. Alec,

    Aaahh the old Myth.

    Money has not dried up- in fact Adams makes more than ever. Book deals, Speaking tours, dinners. Thier accounts would put reds to shame.

    In fact, I doubt your suggesting Boston bankers influence our own Northern Irish educaion policy or such things? Actually it is the other way about.
    McGuinness recently secured two deals one with bloomberg that state pension pots would invest in NI (not that I understand how that works) and also the agreed to set up an arm of the NYSE here.

    As a matter of fact, the lobbying worked the other way.

  13. Having studied the big news story of the day, I am begining to see Ed Balls as the thinking person’s Robbie Williams… something about the rueful smile.
    EB to win, but he needs more exposure.

  14. @Billy Bob
    Did you not mean you see Robbie Williams as the thinking person’s Ed Balls? :-)

  15. Billy B,

    Nothing would give me greater pleasure but I wonder if it is at all possible?

  16. @Alec “It was on September 11th itself when the US government special envoy to Northern Ireland jabbed his finger into Gerry Adams chest and said he could “f*ck off” if any American was killed with IRA weapons sold to the Columbian rebels. At this point Adams knew they had no support in America and the war was over. ”

    I have oft thought that TB’s support of the USA invasion of Iraq was necessary to show solidarity in the war against terrorism and ensure USA public opinion and government policy perceived and treated the IRA as terrorists too.

  17. All,

    Martyn has an excellent post, which has just come out of moderation on the previous page. Worth reading.

  18. Eoin,
    Only 33 MPs back him, so I assume he has never really concentrated on building alliances (though curiously the same was said about DM, that he had no power base in the party). Ken Livingstone as the only high profile supporter, though I notice Sally Bercow has come out for him.

  19. Mike N,

    I doubt it strongly. Richard English published a book last year on terrorism. It’s conversational style makes for a good read…

    The first page is all thats requires to get the oint I am making. Blair’s children were playing in the garden, while IRA army council members taught them to play the skateboard.

    Terrorists- I am not sure Blair saw it that way. Probably why business got done.

  20. ‘I have oft thought that TB’s support of the USA invasion of Iraq was necessary to show solidarity in the war against terrorism ‘ Mike N.

    Terrorism> I thought it was about oil and Christian imperialism especially as Saddam hated at Qaida and they had no base there! (It was meant to be about WMD in Iraq remember???). Dont be naive, dont forgive Blair.

    And Dont forget NI also occurred because Uk govt went back on the treaty temporarily establishing NI in the 1920s and then followed by blatant disregard for the human rights abuses imposed by one sect of Christians on another.

    If one looks at Ireland self evidently it was one country and NI is merely one of the last outposts of conquered Empire.

  21. @ Sue

    Of course the concept of £50,000 for access has a “grubby” feel but the parties need to have ways to get funds and unfortunately it needs 20,000 of us in the £2.50 brigade to match one person with too much money keen to break bread with DC or whoever it may be
    I’m sure you want your party to be able, both mid-term and at GE time, to get their policies across to as wide an audience as possible, have the infrastructure in place to function effectively as a party, and run a strong UK wide campaign. That costs a lot of money, and given people with a genuine interest in politics/party members are in a tiny minority, often the only way to get the message across is through mass media campaigning which is expensive.

    The fact that the campaigns at 2010 GE were costly and not that effective due to lack of imagination/vision is unfortunate, as that money is then wasted in many senses (much to Ashcroft’s chagrin) but again it is individual choice how much money anyone wants to give, however large or small that amount is.

    But your free “meet the leaders” lottery is a great idea and one which would earn all the leaders a lot of respect……………I suspect they would all jump at the idea (as long as Mrs Duffy was barred from entering)

  22. Eoin
    Thanks

    Jack
    There seemed to me an element of quid pro quo re Iraq and the IRA. I acknowledge that this could be a misconception on my part.

  23. @Mike N – TB did reference NI strongly in pre-invasion joint press conferences with GWB, as if to say “Iraq will be your NI”.

  24. Mike N,

    Just bear in mind that the Provisional’s cessation occured in Aug. ’94. Bear a brief renunication to jostle Major along- they have been in comparitive terms very quiet.

    The zeitgeist of Americano’s in 2003 was a long way from the Emerald isle. Somalia, Kandahar, Iraq and Riyadh concerned them much more.

    The rouse that the tap was switched off to Provisionalism by Boston bankers made good tabloid journalism. Those guys have hundreds of millions.

  25. “as long as it is not seen to influence policy/law in the way it did for million buck Bernie.”

    That’s the point indeed Hooded Man.

    …but it’s not always easy to “see”

  26. How confusing it all is. Yesterday double dip, today “Corporate UK gives shot in the arm to economy” figures revised upwards. As long as we keep site of the fact that yesterdays headlines are as a result of coalition bungling and today’s are a result of the clear sighted genius of Gordon Brown.
    No comment about 800 potentially dangerous Muslim extremists coming up for release? No thought not.
    £1000 tickets to sit next to some Tory MP far more important. At last years Labour conference they were charging £1500 for the same honour.

  27. I mean sight of not site of. Sorry I’m only a Tory.

  28. the first signs that Ab is a bit closer to Ed M than Da M occur in the following excerpt from BBC..

    “He [AB] said the party needed to embrace change and suggested he agreed with comments by fellow candidate Ed Miliband – who will also give a key speech later on Friday – that the real risk facing Labour was failing to admit the mistakes of recent years and getting stuck in a “New Labour comfort zone”.

  29. @EOIN
    In 1988 a recently retired Royal Naval officer and myself (a retired army officer) described the situation in Northern Ireland to a small group of US army officers in Gibraltar. The senior US officer was a full Colonel and very switched on he seemed. Their appalling ignorance became apparent once the show got on the road. The concept that between 60 and 70 % of people in NI were more loyal to the Queen of England than myself and the retired Commander RN was as big a shock to them as Jack Kennedy’s killing.
    Luckily the former naval officer was an Ulsterman, I feel sure the just would not have believed me.

  30. Roland,

    Yes I agree. They are an endearing race of kind hearted people. Generally speaking, political nuance escapes them.

  31. Apparently the Lib Dems are offering supporters the chance to discuss Government policy with their ministers at dinner – for as little as £250.
    Wealthier donors can pay £800 to attend a ‘corporate day’ at the Lib Dem conference in Liverpool, including a ‘special forum’ with Business Secretary Vince Cable and Danny Alexander.

    Selling themselves a bit cheap aren’t they?

  32. I am not an apologist for TB over Iraq, but the counter argument is rarely given.

    Talk in Washington was to ‘drop the bomb’, international law/the UN an utter irrelevance, taking Baghdad a matter of days, next stop Tehran, Damascus – infact client democracies to be installed throughout the Middle East.

    TB slowed them down and at least make a nod in the direction of the UN. Many in Washington actively did not want UK involvement. We do not know the full extent of pressures that can be exerted on a British PM by an out of control US administration.

    At some point TB came to the conclusion that UK involvement was preferrable to allowing the US to go alone and risk a wider conflagration.

  33. Billy Bob

    I agree with your comments.

    The fury within the USA post 9/11 and the clamour on the president to stamp on anyone remotely linked to the atrocities must have been almost unbearable.

  34. So no comment on the soon to be released persons who could well be a treat to our safety and security, and no comment about how the latest immigration figures clash with Labours “firm control they spoke of during the GE. I suppose it takes me to raise this totally trivial matter, when we could all be agreeing the cuts are to deep and raising IT rather than VAT is far more fair. (Like poor people paying more income tax is fair.) Having had that business over 678 times, spare a thought for the xenophobic, racist, anti Muslim, white supremacist’s like me. I thought I would add all the “appropriate” words to save others the trouble.

  35. Ooh you are a naughty Roland……but I like you!

  36. @billy bob
    there is always a counter-argument but this one does not counter-balance.
    I’m probably in a minority of Blues who at the time were anti-Iraq invasion and voted with my feet in the million march. It wasn’t right then and it isn’t right now IMHO. I sympathise with pragmatism over principle in many circumstances but not when international law is flouted, and even if a very generous interpretation could deem it legal, then too many other global situations come into the same category but are treated differently for other reasons of expediency. It is a contrived view that TB could ever be seen to have prevented wider US invasions by going along with Iraq, and personally I don’t think we should defend our role in Iraq on this basis.

  37. MIKEN

    “The fury within the USA post 9/11 and the clamour on the president to stamp on anyone remotely linked to the atrocities must have been almost unbearable.”

    I will never forget the look on George Bush’s face when that official whispered the awful news into his ear, as he sat watching schoolchildren read to him.

    I believe he had received news of the first plane before he went into the school-and he certainly looks distracted before that official approached him -presumably with news of the second plane.

  38. Had Tony Blair, and other European leaders, not supported George W. Bush’s attack on Iraq, it might or might not have stopped Bush from sending the United States Army across the Kuwait-Iraq border, but it would certainly have severely damaged Bush’s political cover for the operation, a large part of which was pointing to British support for his policy. If Blair had taken a strong stand against the invasion, Bush would have found himself out on a limb in trying to politically defend the action, and in all likelihood would not have won the Presidential election in 2004.

  39. @BILLY BOB
    Well the Yanks went it alone in Vietnam (a small Aussie presence excluded) and it did not turn into WW3. They should have been left to go it alone in Iraq.
    Our contribution was not great in the scheme of things, other than subsequent special forces expertise. The damage and shame of Iraq and Afghanistan has always been an old style Tory urge to enforce the Empire’s power and a Labour defence budget and expertise at war. Perhaps this says everything about Tony Blair, did he know what he was.

  40. @ Hooded Man – I am not making an argument about legality… and I was with you on that march. Not even ten million, or indeed hundreds of millions around the world would have changed the direction of US policy, unfortunately. :(

    The point is that TB may have to some extent.

  41. Corus and Thai Firm SSI have signed a Memo of Understanding for SSI to buy the mothballed Teesside Cast Products plant.
    The deal, if successfully concluded, is expected to create a significant number of new jobs at the plant. ( BBC)

    After the Port Talbot investment by Corus a few days announced a few days ago this is beginning to sound like good news on UK manufacturing.

  42. Hooded man
    Diane Holland of Unite is the next Labour treasurer IMO
    Put a bet on it

  43. @billy bob
    Fair point, and I wasn’t suggesting you supported that counter-argument.

  44. I don’t defend/argue the legality of the Iraq invasion, but the USA was always going to retaliate for 9/11. The mightiest miltary force in the world would have to be used to deliver retribution somewhere. Public opinion in the USA would not have allowed anything less.

    I think the UK’s involvement prevented excesses from occurring. And I sincerely believe the UK needed to stand side by side with the USA.

  45. Roland,

    Immigration matters less than it used to it used to be consistently the second most importance issue for voters. On issues f personal importance to them it is now 5th. I call it the “wallapaper effect” The first time I saw a squad of 6 ft 6 220lb Poles on my street I cacked it. Now we share beers occasionally (and five a side soccer on fridays if I wasnt cuh a geek and turned up more often). What I am saying is that provided we do not get a wave of Turks in the near future… Immigration will settle down as an issue that annoys voters…

  46. Roland,

    I must add that it is 2nd on the list of issues perceived to be importance to the country (as opposed to ‘your’ immediate family). A stonking 54%, which upon reflection invalidates my point somewhat. Apols.

    A point that might interest you, whcih you know I already share is that Labour have yet to face up to the fact that this annoys their own voters also… that is to say it iant just you!.

    Immigration is pereceived to be the second most important issue affecting the country by LABOUR voters. (43%). I am slowing coming round to agreeing with them, although for different reasons, whcih i wont bore you with.

  47. The US appeared to think despite their long experience as global policeman, that Iraq and Afghanistan were in some way comparable with the WW2 Axis Powers. Defeat them completely and the people will gladly and wholeheartedly pick up western democracy and live happily ever after. It has not worked in Iraq and it will not work in Afghanistan. Any British government should have known that. Saddam Hussein was a grade A swine but so were a few others kicking about around the world at the time.

  48. A point of interest in Today’s YG poll that I share is the following:

    More Labour voters reckon blues to be more prepared to take ‘tough unpopular choices’ than their own party.

    What does that say for Blair’s populism? (For more on the latter poitn see Steve Richards Column yesterday in the Indy).

  49. ED Balls:

    “Going forward, I think even halving the deficit in four years was too ambitious.

    “That is a difference from the strategy we had in the run-up to the election.

    “I think to do a slower and steadier pace going forward is actually more likely to support jobs and growth, more likely to boost financial market confidence and likely to be fairer as well.”

    Leadership frontrunner David Miliband has defended the policy of halving the deficit in four years as the “right” approach while attacking the coalition for wanting to go further in cutting spending.

  50. @barney
    thanks for the reply and tip

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