There is a new YouGov welsh poll for ITV Wales, full tables are here. Topline voting intentions with changes from YouGov’s poll last month are.

Assembly constituency: CON 22%(+2), LAB 39%(-1), LDEM 10%(-3), PC 23%(+1)
Assembly regional: CON 21%(+1), LAB 39%(+2), LDEM 9%(-5), PC 23%(-3)

UPDATE: By my reckoning, on a uniform swing this would give the Conservatives 12 assembly seats (nc), Labour 28 (up 2), the Liberal Democrats 5 (down 1), Plaid 14 (down 1) and 1 Independent.


359 Responses to “Latest Welsh voting intentions”

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  1. ‘Taking into account regional variations in support, Labour would be expected on the basis of these figures to win 27 seats (up one from 2007), Plaid Cymru 13 (two less), the Conservatives 13 (up one) and the Liberal Democrats 7 (up one)’

    big drop for LDs yet an increase in seats ?

  2. (from previous thread)

    @Amber Star

    You said “…improving communities. I said that one project that is generally successful is community theatres/ performance centers. Provided they are not hijacked by an elite, who want to stage The Steamie or Trainspotting (or similar that the ‘locals can identify with’), they are usually very successful…Karaoke style singing & comedy are often the favourites…”

    If memory serves, Hull Truck/John Godber prod’ns tends to be popular, and stand-up comics can still make an impact in the locals if they’re prepared to do the round-the-country grind.

    @Eoin Clarke

    You said “…That Welsh poll would hammer the LDs in all three seats they hold in Wales…”

    Possibly true, but you’re missing the bigger Welsh picture: the reduction in seats when the 600 constituencies (or as I prefer to think of them, Leonidasx2) will affect Wales considerably. Any prediction pro/con there will have to wait.

    @Eoin Clarke (again)

    You said “…The Welsh valleymen, look upon with suspicion the mining areas…”

    Lord, where do you start? Point 1: there are no non-open-cast coal mining areas in wales any more: Tower Colliery closed down quite a while back. Point 2: as previously explained “The Valleys” is a very specific area and not even close to coterminous with Wales: it’s like referring to “Northern Ireland” as “East Belfast”. Cardiff, Swansea, Newport, Aberystwyth, Brecon, Hay-on-Wye, Anglesey, Powys and Wrexham are *not* in The Valleys. Rhondda, Aberdare, Merthyr, Ebbw Vale, Maesteg are. Arguably Pontypridd and Bridgend aren’t, but let’s not have that debate. The clue is in the name: they’re valleys. Cardiff, Newport and Swansea are ports, which won’t be in valleys until the icecap melts. Brecon is in rolling hills – so not valleys. Hay-on-Wye is rolling farmland – yes, *not* a valley. Nearly all of Wales and *most* of its inhabitants do not live in a/The Valleys and would not go there at gunpoint. The Valleys are post-industrial, have a class system that reflects in height above the valley floor (the “rich man on a hill” in the valleys is not a metaphor: it’s like sedimentary rock, you can see the layers), socialise North-South but rarely East-West (so Cardiff is frequently visited but the neighbouring valleys rarely), and ferociously Labour (in the Rhondda the Labour vote isn’t counted, it’s weighed). If you want to see the sunrise/sunset in a Valley, you look up. Valley politics goes Labour first, Plaid second, the rest don’t really figure. LibDem support in Wales is limited to the middle part (Powys, farmland-ish, and probably Aberystwyth way) and the more metropolitan parts of Cardiff where the S4C Taffia live.

    @Sue Marsh

    You said “…what would…you think of a return to the front bench of AD and GB?…”

    Labour losing frontbench AD is a waste. Which won’t stop it happening… :-) However, GB’s best destiny is not and never was frontbench, and arguably never was politics either. I keep saying this: he’s got the chops and the rep for a top-flight IMF/World Bank/IBRD job, and there’s very few who have. Even during the worst times, his serious critics never lost sight of his technocratic abilities (compare and contrast with, say, Blair – nobody will ever say “Tony: what’s the integral of 1/cabin”?)

    Regards,
    Martyn

  3. AD retiring from the front bench. He is standing down to make way for all the talent Labour has… The leadership 4, Yvette, Jon Crudas, Liam (notwithstanding his letter to David Laws) etc. etc.

    Compare & contrast with the Tories; their front bench is like a time warp back to the Major years. If not for the Dems beside them, we’d be wondering which decade it is. ;-)

  4. No disrespect to Gordon Brown but everything we know about him suggests he is that man Jilted John sang about in the 1970’s

  5. @WOLF
    Do you remember the words? He’s better looking than you and cool and trendy!!
    I’m a fan of GB but obviously not as much as you are. ;)

  6. Elder statesman Roy Jenkins, from his last speech to the HoL during the Iraq build-up:

    I have been repelled by attempts to portray him as a vacuous man with an artificial smile and no convictions. I am reminded of similar attempts by a frustrated Right to suggest that Gladstone was mad, Asquith was corrupt and Attlee was negligible. My view is that the Prime Minister, far from lacking conviction, has almost too much, particularly when dealing with the world beyond Britain. He is a little too Manichaean for my perhaps now jaded taste, seeing matters in stark terms of good and evil, black and white, contending with each other, and with a consequent belief that if evil is cast down good will inevitably follow. I am more inclined to see the world and the regimes within it in varying shades of grey.

  7. Martyn / Aber Star / etc,

    Could you take this somewhere else? This is supposed to be a blog for opinion polls, and Welsh ones in this case?

  8. Latest YouGov government approval negative again;
    39% approve, 41% disapprove

  9. Baby boom over then Julian?

  10. Julian,

    Thanks for that.

    Martin,

    June 2009 – Blues topped the poll in Wales :) Also- wasnt it a bit pedantic to point out that there were no mines..? I think you could have read that as ex-mining villages – smarty pants :) An undulation across two hills would practically count as Vaelley- I think It was clear I meant in the metaphorical sense. Also in some constituencies Labour are not in the two 2. In the LDs three seats in Wales for instance reds are only in second place in one of them.

    As for NI… West of the bann is a republican hinterland and North of Belfast an Orange one. Every state(let) has its regional disparities and Wales is No different. I travelled across N Wales and found very little suport for reds.

    Aside from that- you Wales specific inrut is greatly appreciated and vastly superior to mine. I would appreciate your interpretation of the ITV/YG poll for Wales? :)

  11. Julian,
    You selectively forgot to mention
    Tory 42 Lab 37 Lib14

    Anyway polls don’t matter.. No election for 5 years!!

  12. Howard,

    How likely is a Hancock, Pugh, Farron, CK, Russell breakaway to reform an SDP type movement?

    I think it is very very clear- they aint switching to reds.

  13. I think the poll undermines the Tories in Wales. Labour received it’s worst GE here in it’s history. I think the Tories will actually poll nearer to 30% like the GE. Alot of people will not forget about what labour left behind that quickly. Tory front bench in the 90s? My friend and AM J Morgan is only 35 and lives a very modern way of life. He was AM of the year in 07.

  14. Wayne – 2015 isn’t even odds-on to be the date of the next General Election.

  15. “No election for 5 years!!”

    Four years and nine months *puffs on pipe*

  16. Bobby

    5 more years.. “I will go on and on”. Sound familiar?

  17. Wayne,

    Every poll since the GE averaged is a very interesting indicator of what way things are headed…

    The 600 odd polls of the last parliament had reds 31 blue 38

    not far off eh?

    Well every poll this time round reads something like

    42 blue
    35 red (prob. closer to 36 now)

    It leaves blue short of a majority. However, seat reduction would make it very close indeed. Blue might sneak a majority a majority of 1…

    Yellows either way will be greatly reduced.

    In short I think 2015 will see a Con / Lib coalition again.

  18. Billy,

    4 years and nine months – Of nice big juicy cuts!!

  19. Eoin,

    Indeed!

  20. Eoin – 600 polls to….60? Remembering most of those are the You Gov Tracker, perhaps we need to wait a LITTLE longer to claim the trend.

  21. LD splits

    I don’t see it happening, as sticking it out is the only game in town at present (present being for the next two years at least).

    I suppose another year after that, one would have to start looking at their majorities and how they were achieved. For instance, Farron has a wafer thin one with Lab on 7.6%. If he decided to jump ship it would be more logical to defect to Labour would it not (?) and of course the latter would adopt him as candidate.

  22. In fact the polls for the same period at the beginning of the last parliament were Con 30/Lab 39 but Labour didn’t win the next election, sadly.

  23. Re: The woman that dumped the cat in the dustbin
    “I DONT UNDERSTAND WHAT ALL THE FUSS IS ABOUT..! ‘TOPCAT’ LIVED IN A BIN FOR YEARS,.”

  24. @wayne – “Anyway polls don’t matter.. ”

    Will they matter if your predictions of 49/25 by Christmas materialise?

  25. Wayne :-) keep them coming , it’s still August

  26. Sue,

    you are 100% correct – but…..

    Chill your good self out.

    i am trying to channel our exciting colleague into posting more constructively. You’ll see within months he’ll be citing you British Polling Council regulations.

    I am an educationalist, (and humanist besides) rather that getting into a slanging match with Wayne I would be interested in teasing out his views/ideas. Of course, I have noted that you are most courteous also to him so please do not read it as a criticism. :)

  27. Alec,

    Do I detect just a little hint of sarcasm?

  28. Eoin,

    I am also an Educationalist.. I don’t need any further educating though, thanks for the office.. I take lessons only from the great mind!

  29. Wayne,

    And I am sure you learn those lessons well. Do keep posting. :)

  30. Andy Burnham’s ideas on radical tax reform are quite interesting. Dropping stamp duty on home sales in exchange for a land value tax and abolishing inheritance tax to be relaced by a 10% hypothecated death duty to pay for free care for the elderly would be quite neat tricks if they could be made to work.

    His line ‘Public attitudes to fairness in pay and tax changed with the credit crisis’ is also welcome – at least someone understands that something has changed.

    At least someone – in any party – is beginning to think of the more radical change we need.

  31. Prediction for December 2010 Polls

    YouGov Lab ~ 45% Con ~ 38% LD ~ 9% Others ~ 8%

    Government Approval Rating 25%

    Disapprove 75%

    My polls are completely unscientific however, I have been tracking them using my own methods since 1992 and I have always been about right add or subtract a couple of percentage points. In 1992 I successfully forecast labour would lose and the Tories would be returned with a majority.

    Sorry Wayne, you are way off the planet, probably in that new “solar system” they have discovered. ;0)

  32. Alec,

    Your Child Benefit idea was similarly radical and equally plausible. I have never understood pensions to comment on what you say about them but a root and branch review is clearly what is required.

    i think our regulators need beefed up. Telecoms/Energy etc. should not be allowed to graduate there pricnes upwards in a more enivronment responsive manner than vice versa. An interest cap would also work I think.

    I dont understand enough about trust funds PEPs and ISAs to comment (perhaps Amber does) but they seem terribly convoluted.

  33. @marjory
    so by December all reds, yellows, greens, others and even 2/3 of blues will all disapprove of the govt?
    Are you sure your methodology works?!!

  34. Apologies, 1/3 of blues even

  35. Marjory
    You are not Wayne are you? You write like him.

  36. and who is Christian Schmidt? I didn’t know AW had appointed a moderator?

    Nice to see some new names though. Welcome.

  37. The Telegraph is running with cash for access for a second day. They are now reporting the fact that DC is selling himself at the conference for £2,000 and that the Lib dems are also cashing in by charging fees to meet their ministers.

    This is a terrible, terrible shame, and shows that nothing has changed in the mentality of our governing classes. I’m afraid all the bluster on sleaze from the Tories will prove to be nothing more than a bit of slick opposition PR work, but they will be the one’s to suffer in the end when the scandals start.

    We should be done with it and introduce a party donations cap of £5,000 per person per year, absolutely no business or organisation donations, with the name of every donor over £25 listed.

    It would force parties to rely on people more, and that means representing communities better. If parties go short of money – then good. Did you see how crap all those election posters and videos were?

  38. Howard,

    It feels like the twighlight zone. I wish Anthony had told us who the imposter was a while back it is quite mind numbing posting to someone who could be someone else.

  39. The Telegraph is running with cash for access for a second day. They are now reporting the fact that DC is selling himself at the conference for £2,000 and that the Lib dems are also cashing in by charging fees to meet their ministers.

    This is a terrible, terrible shame, and shows that nothing has changed in the mentality of our governing classes. I’m afraid all the bluster on sleaze from the Tories will prove to be nothing more than a bit of slick opposition PR work, but they will be the one’s to suffer in the end when the scandals start.

    We should be done with it and introduce a party donations cap of £5,000 per person per year, absolutely no business or organisation donations, with the name of every donor over £25 listed.

    It would force parties to rely on people more, and that means representing communities better. If parties go short of money – then good. Did you see how carp all those election posters and videos were?

  40. @ Christian Schmidt

    I hope I spelled your name correctly. Well… we are waiting…. please post something about the Welsh poll that will get us all talking about it.

    Thing is, we sort of beat Anthony’s blog on it. Being polling anoraks we saw the actual poll & discussed it on the previous thread. 8-)

  41. @alec
    But all the parties would go bust in that case. Labour are in huge debt, Tories are not in great shape either. Labour without union funding are finished in a financial sense (they are hugely in debt before Prezza is made treasurer and Lady Prezza expects her two jags)
    The country would be unlikely to stomach state funding given the lack of money?
    I completely appreciate where you are coming from, the stench of sleaze is one of the most pungent and unpleasant aromas of political life, but it needs a workable practical solution
    And if Tony Blair or Mrs T want to flip a hundred grand in the direction of their parties for philanthropic reasons then who are we to say that is wrong?

  42. Hooded man
    As a politician I agree completely.
    For the good reason that Labour needs trade union money, John will not I think become treasurer. It is always a union person. Dromey did a great job both in money but also in governance terms. Whipped to a frenzy people are failing to see the woods for the trees.
    I tell the many business men who make innuendos about brown paper envelopes to fund political parties themselves, even if they give the same amount to various. A whip round of supporters just won’t work

  43. Hooded

    100% agreement.

    Politics is a business (rightly or wrongly) If the tories can earn a bit so they have a bit more freedom of manouevre from the likes of Cashcroft or Murdoch well then it is an unofrtunate necessity.

    Pity DC he has better things to be doing.

  44. @barney
    I thought Prezza was seen as a “union man” in some respects…..but not tied to them?
    Who is your favourite then? i read today, in the Guardian I think, the treasurer is seen as the 3rd most important job for Labour in opposition, (presumably with Shadow Chancellor 2nd)

  45. I said they were unscientific and were correct either side give or take.

    Remember when Blair had a personal approval rating of 62%?

    Approval ratings aside, try not to shoot the messenger!

  46. @Eoin Clarke

    You said “…Wales specific input is greatly appreciated and vastly superior to mine. I would appreciate your interpretation of the ITV/YG poll for Wales?…”

    I can live for two weeks on a good compliment… :-) OK, Wales-specific politics w.r.t the Welsh Assembly. Here we go…

    Quick precis
    Wales has a rep as a Labour fiefdom, its stronghold and last redoubt, faithful unto death. This is broadly true but (arguably like the rest of the UK) old loyalties are loosening. Post-devolution has seen an increase in Plaid votes and this is reflected in the Welsh Assembly, which uses AMS. A local administration is formed by Assembly Members: the administration proposes measures, the Assembly approves/rejects them. The local administration is styled the Welsh Assembly Government (Llywodraeth Cynulliad Cymru) and is headed by the First Minister. It is inevitably abbreviated to WAG. Previous WAGs were purely Labour administrations but the present Government is a coalition between Labour and Plaid. The Coalition agreement is styled “One Wales” and (on the insistence of Plaid) contains a committment to a referendum on acquiring further powers (I oversimplify). That referendum will be held on/before the next Assembly election, scheduled for May 2011.

    Issues
    * UK-wide: economy, credit crunch, etc
    * Wales specific: will CON become second biggest Assembly party or will Plaid keep hold of the silver ring?

    What’s the implication of this poll?
    Surprisingly little. Should this be reflected in the 2011 elections, I guess the Lab/PC coalition would remain in place, with Carwyn Jones (LAB) as First Minister and Ieuan Wyn Jones (Plaid) as Deputy First Minister. Conversely, Labour may try for a minority Government (28 out of 60 is doable) but my guess, given the national situation, would be status quo. Should the upcoming transfer-powers referendum be lost, all bets will be off.

    Spatial Areas
    As part of the WAG’s plan for Welsh administration, Wales was subdivided into six Spatial Areas. They are intended to have fuzzy boundaries but Statistics for Wales/Ystadegau ar gyfer Cymru grew a pair and drew a map. This has a handy side effect: the created areas can be used to give a good picture, thus:

    * City Coastal Zone: million-pound houses, wife swapping, fingernails, overeducated, overpaid, MPVs, Doctor Who, Range Rover Sports. Con/Dem territory.
    * Connections Corridor: (the M4): commuter belt, men in shirts and ties, briefcases, Beemers. Conservative territory
    * Heads of the Valleys: Mad Max, family trees don’t fork, Hard Labour territory. Very, very hard.
    * Swansea Bay: middle-Wales, so to speak. Family values, nothing much happens, second-hand Hondas. Soft Labour
    * Pembrokeshire Haven: rural/port based, holidays, refineries, ferries, lifeboats, smuggling, edgeworld, everybody’s arriving/leaving. Soft Con/Plaid.
    * Central Wales: rural, pretty, farmers, students, sparsely populated, analogous to the Highlands, Range Rovers, Land Rovers. It’s where they hid Salman Rushdie during the fatwa. Elected Lembit Opik: ’nuff said. Con/Plaid/Lib
    * North West Wales: mountainous, rural, inbred, uniformly Welsh-speaking, Toyota 4×4 pickups. It’s where Michael Mann filmed “The Keep”: it was well chosen. Would survive a nuke. Plaid’s Berchtesgaden stronghold.
    * North East Wales: dormitory towns for Liverpool, gets passing trade for said port, Fords. Labour.

    Further Reading
    * ht tp://wales.gov.uk/docs/statistics/2008/081201boundarydefinitionen.pdf
    * ht tp://213.225.137.230/topics/statistics/publications/definingspatial/?lang=en
    * ht tp://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/betsanpowys/
    * ht tp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Welsh_Assembly_Government
    * ht tp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Welsh_devolution_referendum
    * ht tp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Wales
    * ht tp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Assembly_for_Wales
    * ht tp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Keep_(film)

    Regards,
    Martyn

  47. @Eoin Clarke
    My reply to your request is in moderation: you should get it when Anthony gets ’round to it.

    @Anthony Wells
    Have you sorted the 83-87 polling data? The graphic is there on your front page (picture of Thatcher holding figures up) but it doesn’t link to anything. (Sorry to nag – there’s no obligation for you to do so, but it would really help if you could).

    Regards,
    Martyn

  48. I can see something of a drift towards “others”, not to the extent during the expenses scandal but noticable. Once whatever bounce the new labour leader gets is gone, I don’t think people will be rushing to Labour just yet. Too much recent bad experience (and the various candidates will struggle to pretend they had nothing to do with it). I think Europe will be rearing its head fairly soon, raising support for UKIP.

    I just wonder if the Conservatives had got a few more seats, perhaps working as a minority with unionist support, even a tiny majority, would things be worse for them? The libdems are a convenient fig leaf and possibly the Conservatives might be relieved if this arrangement continued. Better than a piddly majority, perhaps.

  49. @marjory
    “try not to shoot the messenger”

    From whom or from whence are your poll predictions coming?!
    Has God spoken? :roll:

  50. “Charging Fees to meet their ministers”

    Good lord above. Really, I have an ENORMOUS problem with this. (And before Colin snipes, I am currently giving the Labour leaders a huge amount of grief over accessibility)

    Could anything put more starkly how truly upside down our politics has become? Our elected representatives earn a fortune, top it up with an even bigger fortune through “expenses” and now we have to PAY to see them????

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