I don’t normally do a post everyday on YouGov’s daily tracking figures – it is, after all, the trend that counts, not the change from day to day. This one is worth noting though. Following on from the net approval rating of zero yesterday, YouGov’s net approval for the government tonight is minus 2 – 39% approve of the government, 41% disapprove of the government. This is the first time the coalition have scored a negative approval rating.

Voting intention tonight is at CON 41%, LAB 38%, LDEM 13%


479 Responses to “YouGov’s government approval turns negative”

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  1. Billy B,

    good question. Perhaps I am the wrong person to ask. It might be better asking child psychologists, since it is intervention of behalf of the child..

    I reccomend every 2 year old goes through a life chances assessment.

    If the fall beneath a certain score, they should be designated an interloceteur type professional to ‘guide’ their upbringing.

    Equal of opp. I have always held is a myth.

    I also suggest that a LCA (life chace assessment) might help get some of our hoodies etc.. on the radar early. There is nothing wrong with accepting that there is a link between crime and poverty.

  2. @Rob Sheffield
    @Amber Star

    Regarding your David Miliband love-in, just for the sake of balance, here’s the other side of the coin from Seumas Milne in this morning’s paper:
    On David Miliband “But even after 13 years of New Labour administration…he has not seen fit to repudiate a single significant decision of the governments of Blair and Gordon Brown. Beyond the broadest-brush self criticisms and a reheated Blair communitarianism, the elder Miliband appears, as Alan Johnson puts it, unable to think of a ‘single issue on which Labour got the balance wrong’ .”

    “By contrast, his brother has at least begun to absorb the lesons of New Labour’s failure and rejected its triangulation, social authoritarianism, embrace of flexible labour markets and support for tuition fees. He has also taken the essential step of denouncing the Iraq war, which he opposed at the time. Most important, the former energy secretary has recognised that most of the votes Labour lost were working class – and of the middle class defectors, the majority went to the Liberal democrats”.

  3. Phil

    100% agreement :)

  4. @ALEC
    Before you concern yourself with David and Samantha Cameron’s sex life, consider the fact the other baby, Gordon Browns regulator the FSA have now been found even more wanting. It seems that a “task force”
    which works for the Accounting Standards Board, has found a “regulatory fiasco” in place for “at least the last 5 years” which has very seriously compromised the accounting practices of British Banks and contributed to the collapse of banks in 2008. This whole left wing emphasis on how appallingly badly the wicked Tories are handling this matter, allows you to forget the criminal laxity which allowed it to happen in the first place.

  5. @PHIL
    I am seen by many on this board as Maj Gen Bufton -Tufton. However, I agree with your post 100%.

  6. Roland

    your post to Alec

    Well found-off to find it.

  7. @Sue Marsh
    Thanks for link re 83 year old pensioner threatened with eviction. This site may be of interest:-

    h ttp://www.insidehousing.co.uk/

    Tiz a fair and balanced website. They produce the main ‘trade’ mag for the housing industry. This was a chilling story IMO. If you extend the logic then you end up in a science fiction scenario where people who are of no use to society or (in this case) are taking up too much space, are taken to the vaporizing chamber. Mind you there are some ASB offenders near me who deserve just that – and I would happily press the button !
    :) 8)

    Apols for old-fashioned smilies. Wish I knew how to do your snazzy ones !

  8. @Eoin

    I foresee problems with this. The Blairite initiative to identify potential offenders at the pre-school age (It can be done in a ‘statistical’, but not a real sense): must I accept ‘special treatments’ without having commited a crime yet? Human rights.

    Also, the assessment would be subjective. Who is to say that an unlettered person who enjoys fresh air and sells the odd horse for cash is a less preferable outcome than becoming an accountant. (Forget the examples… the general point.)
    Interlocuters might have issues/cultural bias of their own. (Interesting report today about how religious veiws of doctors unconsiously affect their decision making.) The point is make it easy to find an individual who inspires you, not have a mentor allocated.

    Kid’s Company director Camilla Batman-G (who Colin referred you to some time ago) was speaking the other day (Basically their door is open to any kid, but if the kid wants protection there are rules). The child comes to them in a very bad state sometimes. CB says both of them hold the memory of how bad it was, so it is neccessary, in order to move on, that the child decides when to leave.

    Organic change, autonomy. It is destabilising to be told “you have to change”. Kid’s Company etc. rely on insirational, carismatic individuals and should be encouraged. However, to roll out a rigid framework based on an ideological interpretation of the ‘principles that work’ and implemented by salaried officials may not get the same results.

    A change in schooling/childcare approach (I think Laszlo talked about this some time ago) would allow a ‘democratic’ empowering place to ‘be’ for all kids… less didactic, and less stigmatising of individuals.

  9. A very interesting piece on ConHome by David Alexander a former senior adviser to John Howard’s government in Australia and a former economics editor of the Canberra Times.

    Thinking about the difficulties of spending cuts for deficit reduction purposes, he proposes radical means testing of welfare benefits as a means of cutting spend in a way which embodies “fairness” best, thus maximising support within & without the Coalition.

    This is his conclusion:-

    ” Consider the case of Australia, the means testing and targeting capital of the developed world, with the lowest share of transfers going to the wealthiest half of the population of any country in the OECD.

    It is not coincidental that in 2009 Australia had the lowest government spend/GDP ratio in the OECD, equal with South Korea. And where government spending falls, so taxes shall tumble down too. The government revenue take in Australia in 2009 is also the lowest in the OECD (both figures from the OECD).

    Means testing does carry its own secondary issues regarding marginal incentive structures, but the simple robust philosophy behind it is that the state should only raise taxes to fund those genuinely in need.

    Taking transfer payments away from middle and upper income earners is of course likely go down like a lead balloon amongst those receiving them, but the unfortunate fact is that this may be a least worst option for helping to tackle the problem.

    The threat of cuts to middle class benefits has seen the emergence of a coalition even stranger than the Con-Lib Dem crossbred. Opposing means testing sees the Fabian Society, which says that it threatens “social solidarity,” and Ed Milliband, who says the same thing, joining forces with the Daily Mail and numerous Conservatives who want benefits to go right up the scale.

    The rough choices for the government now in dealing with its “regressivity” problem is to either (a) break promises of universality, introduce means testing and face the wrath of the Big State Coalition; (b) stay the course, keep the benefits for higher income earners, face the Institute for Fiscal Studies accusation that the government is hurting the less well off more than the better off, and tough it out; or (c) introduce some tax hikes at the upper end.”

  10. @Roland Haines

    “I am seen by many on this board as Maj Gen Bufton -Tufton. However, I agree with your post 100%.”

    Surely not. I’d always had you down as the long lost love child of Eric Pickles and Anne Widdicombe!

  11. BillyB,

    I will reply later, I’m in work at 1pm. Off to play cricket in the meantime. Thanks for that hough.

  12. BILLY BOB

    “Kid’s Company director Camilla Batman-G ”

    If she and/or her organisation, and/or her ethos, and/or methods are not incorporated somehow , somewhere in the Coaltion’s policies to attack our social problems-then I have completely misunderstood what DC & IDS have been on about.

  13. @colin (10.04am) – a fair and thoughtful post. I would have thought that clearly having a poorer quality of accomodation (as defined by market valuation) does indeed mean you are less well off, but I accept there are definitions and definitions. There may also be fair justification for trying to drive down rents as well. It’s the false claims made by Osborne in june that risk damaging him rather than the detailed rights and wrongs of the case.

    @Roland – (10.39) – absolutely agree re bank regulation. In my own quiet way I have campaigned against the march of the unfettered free market in the banking and finance sectors since the Big Bang. We have seen repeated scandals with pensions, savings and now credit under both Tory and Labour governments. The entire national economy has been subjugated to the interests of a small group within the financial sector and successive Prime Ministers have treated them like Gods. When they have failed, we have provided their sacrifices.

    New Labour needs to accept it’s fair share of the blame for failing to regulate effectively. It’s equally clear, under any objective analysis, that under the Tories regulation would have been little better. While they wouldn’t have created the FSA and would probably have left the BoE in charge, all the evidence suggests that the BoE was as clueless about what was coming as everyone else, and may indeed have been even worse at regulation than the FSA was.

    In so many ways Dave ‘I pledge to stick by Labour spending limits’ Cameron also failed utterly to see what was coming, so there really isn’t much point for any side trying to lay claim to a golden morality over this.

    The Tories created the system and took us through a couple of very big bubbles and crashes, Labour kept the lid on a failing system for a surprisingly long time but did nothing to avoid the catastrophy and were holding the baby when the wheels fell off the pram.

    So what? We’ve all been taken for fools, but at least some of us have consistently said for the last 24 years that the system was wrong and would end up in an almightly train crash.

  14. @ NICK HADLEY
    Today is as good as any for you to declare you were born as a result of the short liason between Bessie Braddock and Pol Pot.

  15. THe EU’s budget is to rise by more than £8.8 billion to £125 billion in 2013, a 7.6 per cent rise on this year’s spending levels. The British contribution to the EU rises to £10.3 billion over the next three years.

    Included is a planned increase in spending on administration of 15 per cent, taking the cost up to £3.2 billion, as austerity programmes are urged on national governments by the EU, and cause panic in the markets about economic effect.
    Included in the spending forecast are estimated pay rises worth 5.3 per cent to EU officials by the end of 2011 under automated wage adjustments linked to a special Brussels living cost index and the salaries of senior national officials.
    The EU foreign service is to pay €10 million (£8 million) a year to rent offices for its new headquarters in Brussels.

    Great isn’t it-these people are totally insulated from the reality which they themselves create, and have not the slightest concept of the meaning of “democratic accountability to the people”.

  16. Alec

    “It’s the false claims made by Osborne in june that risk damaging him rather than the detailed rights and wrongs of the case. ”

    I think that is fair & I agree with it.

    Too late now though.GO should forget about swapping meaningless left wing dog whistle words like “progressive” with the opposition -& just get on with the job of getting us out of the mess they left us in.

  17. @colin – yes, the EU are just swimming in a different sea. Quite baffling.

    On Osborne, I disagree with Roland and think this has been a big mistake. He made such a play over avoiding Brown’s awful habit of hiding the bad news and hyping the good, and being completely straight and honest (aka Darling) would have been a very good contrasting strategy.

    However, he’s blown it, and I suspect that forevermore Osborne budgets will be viewed like Brown’s – with great suspicion and with limited credibility.

  18. @ALEC
    You don’t cut it Alec, blaming the Tories will not serve at all. Brown introduced the FSA, it was as I said (topically) his baby. The old Securities and Investment Board regulated me and had worked perfectly well since 1988. Browns first act as chancellor was to fix something that was not broken and stick the governments oar in where it was not required. Typically we end up here.

  19. @Roland

    “..allows you to forget the criminal laxity…”

    I suggest that though your posts are given over to melodrama and hyperbole this allegation of ‘criminality’ is somewhat over done.

    What actual crime has been committed?

  20. Alec

    He did blow it-that time-because he was still electioneering-forgetting he was in HoC, presenting a Government Budget as a member of that Government.

    Trying to turn the “progressive” knife was perhaps understandable euphoria-but very bad politics.

    Provided he remembers that in future, he will be fine…..and ( if I take Eoin’s drift ) if he appoints Chote as head of OBR , he cannot fail to demonstrate transparency on the macro assumptions.

    But-budgets will matter less than economic outcome as perceived by real people , in the very near future-so he might as well keep his head down & press on.

  21. RE: FSA Banking Regulations

    The ASB (Accounting Standards Board), IMO, continue to shift every drop of blame from the Accounting profession onto the FSA. Why? Because otherwise there are two groups in the hot seat:
    1. ASB themselves, for not having much stricter Accounting & Auditing standards;
    2. The accounting profession, who are now absolutely determined to take zero responsibility for the financial fiasco because of the possibility that firms could be facing a PR disaster at best, or worse, could be sued.

    Immediately after the melt-down, there was a loud & collective sigh of relief from the accounting profession that almost nobody was blaming them. They were delighted that the bankers & the government/ FSA were absorbing all the blame. Quite frankly, IMO, it was the relief of those escaping retribution for something they believed they might have contributed to. 8-)

  22. From my mobile, so just briefly. The IFS report doesn’t make the assumption that the cut in HB would create families’ moving to cheaper accommodation, that the cap would affect rent, so the difference has to be found, hence the claim of income reduction. However, they use the total reduction in the HB and rented property type distribution to estimate the effects on households and it creates quite a bit of credibility. There are a number of problems with many of their assumptions, but they are essentially the same as the governments, but following them up to their consequences.

    The housing vacated by the EE migrant workforce could provide some relief, because I think the number of households entitled to HB will increase.

  23. @roland – “You don’t cut it Alec, blaming the Tories will not serve at all”

    I didn’t – I blamed them all. I quite freely accepted your original post and said that New labour had to shoulder their share of the blame. But it’s highly unlikely we would have seen a different outcome had there been a different government.

    The old system you claim to have worked wonderfully failed miserably to prevent credit bubbles in the past, and it’s highly unlikely it would have protected UK banks from the global meltdown this time around either.

    This crisis has deep roots. Labour could have taken steps to mitigate it’s impacts but didn’t. The Tories led the charge towards deregulated markets and would have fared no better. We have witnessed a system failure of epic proportions and all main political parties were part of the conventional wisdom that ruled the roost.

    I won’t defend Labour, but nor I think should you be so dismissive of any Tory culpability in the makings of the crisis.

  24. @COLIN
    Quite agree with you comments regarding the EU.
    The democratic record of the the major players in Europe is always ignored by the pro-Europe liberal fraternity. My reference to the fact that 1 year before my birth, France, Germany and Italy all had Fascist dictatorships running them, is of course is just the zenophobic ramblings of a stupid Tory. Plus of course 65 years ago is ancient history. Now these nations not only squander our money, they direct US on the matter of human rights.

  25. @Amber Star – not an expert in these things, but a very interesting post. Its clear that while governments can do and say what they like in terms of regulation, right or wrong, if the accountancy and auditing industry cannot place accurate valuations of products then any regulatory regime is likely to come unstuck.

    I still fail to comprehend how some of the big international auditing and credit rating companies have survived the crash after confidently valuing assets at utterly wrong prices.

  26. @roland – “My reference to the fact that 1 year before my birth, France, Germany and Italy all had Fascist dictatorships running them, is of course is just the zenophobic ramblings of a stupid Tory.”

    Actually Roland, avoiding this is the one thing that the EU has done really, really well. It’s the rest of the stuff where it’s going astray.

  27. @Rolly Haines

    “Today is as good as any for you to declare you were born as a result of the short liason between Bessie Braddock and Pol Pot.”

    I notice you didn’t deny my guess at your lineage and as for your yahboo response, I always feel it’s best to get the joke in their first.

    Any photos to support my thesis, by the way? The issue from a Pickles and Widdicombe liason, long or short, would be a thing to behold and, would I think, interest Madame Tussauds, albeit presenting them with a real challenge in terms of achieving anything approaching an accurate likeness.

  28. @MIKE N
    Negligence.

  29. ROLAND

    I agree.

    They make my blood boil-people digging deep in their pockets & standards of living , and these unelected parasites sail blithely on like some latter day Ancien Régime .

    One day Roland….one day !

  30. @NIKI HADLEY
    What is this dialogue trying to prove?

  31. Roland

    There are lights at the end of the EU tunnel.

    This is the one which sustains me :-

    ” The founder of the Centre for Economic and Business Research told ( travel) delegates he believed it was inevitable that the European currency would fail and that Spain would be the first country forced to exit it.

    He said Spain’s failure to address its own banking crisis brought on by over exposure to a weak housing market would precipitate its exit and then other countries like Italy, which has “lost 40% of its export market” due to the Euro, would use the excuse to leave too.

    McWilliams said these countries, and others like Greece, are unable to devalue as they once did when they had their own currencies to cope with financial crises and this makes continued membership of the Euro untenable.

    “Until it breaks up, the Euro will go south,” he said. “We will get a new set of travel destinations re-emerging. I think that the traditional destinations will come back again when they go back to the good old days of using Lira and drachma.

    “It was always clear that the Euro was a political thing. For money to be dominated by politics is always a bad idea.”

  32. @Roland

    It’s a truism that neither legislation nor bureacracy is put in place unless there is an identifiable/urgent need. In the cases of financial services and products sadly there are numerous instances of legal sanctions and restrictions only being implemented after some dreadful failure affecting many people – eg personal pensions misselling during the 1980s and Maxwell’s plundering of pension schemes.

  33. @Rolando Haines

    “What is this dialogue trying to prove?”

    I like a bit of repartee with the dark side of politics from time to time!

    That said, probably time to cease the relative frivolity amongst the welter of serious discussion.

  34. @MIKE N
    Do not presume to lecture me about financial services in the 1980s or about pensions at any conjecture.
    Raising pensions in particular and supporting the last government as you do, will lead to a melodramatic and quite probably hyperbolic reply from me.

  35. @COLIN
    It will have to come from the people Colin. The Mafia like controls in place and the fabulous sinecures will be fought for like the ruins of Stalingrad. The one source of amusment to me is that the strongest bank in Europe is Spanish.

  36. @ROLAND “Do not presume to lecture me about financial services in the 1980s or about pensions at any conjecture.”

    I have noticed over time that you are particularly sensitive on this issue.

    The point is no government is immune to claims of negligence ‘ nor could they ever devise and implement extensive and thorough legislation that would wholly prevent those engaged in financial services or products from finding ways to exploit some weakness. IMO.

  37. BillyBob,

    I broke away early to come reply (sad i know).

    The method of learning you are proposing is known by two names

    a) Socratic method
    b) Constructivist learning

    I am a longstanding exponent of it and implement it myself. It contributed to three girls I taught coming top with full marks in AQA hist in 2004 (all went on to Oxford) yes it does work and yes it can be a springboard to learning.

    There are problems though. LAnguages for example: they are crucial to international business wouldnt you say? Constructivist learning and travelling go hand in hand.. I have never picked up an itlaina phrase book but I get by comfrtably in Italy. The point I am making is this..

    Who stnads a better chance of picking up French: my son with an average IQ who has been to France for five longish trips or a poorer kid who has never travelled there?

    Constructivism/Socaratci teaching works (it works well in history I feel regardless of social class) but Englsih (vocab) and languages and arts such as art and music social class is paramount and these kids that I am talking about need additional support.

    Bernstein completed a study of 200african American 2year olds and 200 white kids in the States (1960s I think) … at the age of two the poorer kids vastly outnumber the white kids in terms of words in their vocab.. (constructivist learning probably aided them since the had more ocntact with mothers and other kids)… but by the age of 6 the white kids had overtaken the black kids comfortably… the black kids constructivist learning had dried up because their parents vocab was more limited.

    Noam Chomsky wrote an excellent book on linguists and how children naturally form stems to sentences without being taught (exactly int he manner of learning you propose) it certainly works. But it too poses equality problems. My vocab rubs off on my son- hence in comparison to his peers he is probably a dictionary (not in the Amber class mind you). But Ihave no doubt some of his peers are naturally more gifted.

    The bottom line is that I agree with you on one strategy… it is certainyl much more valuable than didactic teaching but I hope I have at least persuaded you a little that ‘intervention’ to help foster aspiration and potential is required at a young age. It is linked to poverty issues. Of course, other kids will also suffer, I have narrated before the challenges wealthier kids experience with lonlieness and lack of contact with their parents…

  38. Phil – Here I go again!!

    Ooooooh, Guardian would rather have left winger shock!!

    “Yet it is also true that we lost on May 6th 2010 on an epic scale: it is not just the 29 per cent share of the vote that is our worst result since the second world war bar 1983; it is that outside the Labour heartlands we were given a drubbing. We lost 1.6 million low income voters between 1997 and 2010 and 2.8million skilled and lower middle class voters.

    So we need to learn the right lessons. Proud of our record, humble about our mistakes too.

    Tony and Gordon did great things. Really great things. But I know that in Tony’s time he did not focus on income inequalities, stopped devolution at Scotland and Wales when we should have carried it on, and too often defined himself against the party not against the Tories;

    Gordon was wrong about the 10p rate, and wrongfooted in debates about the role of the state and the importance of crime and security as Labour issues. Both of them underestimated the extent to which the problems of the British economy had not been resolved by the 1980s.”

    Anyway Phil, it is far from a DM love in on here, I assure you!!

  39. Phil

    As far as I can ascertain it is possible to categorise apoligists for labour’s defeat by the date at which they deemed it all begin to go wrong.

    As far as I can ascertain DM seems to beleive it went wrong after 2005, and sometimes he gives the impression it started to go wrong when Gordy came in.

    It started to go wrong in my view on day one. Not day 3000+

    Labour did some many wonderful wonderful things of which I am very proud but almost immediately we made far too many mistakes over policy, personality and presentation.

  40. @ Alec

    I still fail to comprehend how some of the big international auditing and credit rating companies have survived the crash after confidently valuing assets at utterly wrong prices.
    —————————————————–
    To coin a phrase, clean trousers were scarce in the accountancy profession as the meltdown unfolded.

    The relief – as time passed & there were no calls for the profession to be held to account – was almost tangible. Having dodged the bullet at the time, they are not about to step into the firing line now. It benefits the new government & the profession to agree vis the PR: It was all the fault of the FSA & the previous government. 8-)

  41. @ Phil

    Éoin & Sue have already replied but let me say this:

    1. I believe Ed M is going to win;
    2. Regulars know, I am a Burnham fan.

    And I think all ‘our’ guys are leadership material. This has made the contest dull for the media. “They are all the same”…. Maybe so; but IMO – each, in his own way, is far better than Cameron & Clegg. That’s what really matters. 8-)

  42. Question:

    Is it right and proper that Cruddas is allowed to use Labour Party memebrship databse to lobby us to vote for DM? I am sure reds have all received his email. How very well coordinated I must say. I have a distinct impression that the higher echelons are attempting to orchestrate a DM victory. I said the same thing months ago wehn 45 minutes before the General secretary even opened the leadership campaign we all received an email from DM. Surely there are regualtions to follow?

  43. Thanks Eoin, very informative, don’t let me interrupt the gentlemen’s (and lady’s) game. :)

    “…art and music social class is paramount and these kids that I am talking about need additional support.”

    Was having an off beam thought about – rather than disparage the obsession with Simon Cowell/Celebrity, perhaps we should take these aspirations seriously and envision a society with more widespead emphasis on ‘performance’. It certainly helps with well being and confidence.

  44. @amber and fellow reds
    “1. I believe Ed M is going to win”

    HI, I understand the general rules of the Labour contest (I think!) but am struggling with the practical scenario of EM overhauling DM. i know that 2nd votes may fall more favourably for EM but my impression is that DM may get close enough that unless (virtually) all of the 2nd votes steer clear of him then he would be difficult to overhaul. Anecdotally he has over 100 MPs already, and above 50% of party members so are you assuming he takes a small amount of unions members/affiliates and then gets caught on the 2nd or subsequent rounds? He must be in a postion to pick up 2nd places from the likes of AB’s supporters if he were to drop out earlier?
    Do you have a model running with predictions for the candidates after the first round of electoral colleges? Would be interested to know your thoughts?

  45. There is a new YG Welsh poll for those who are interested… (Westminster Voting Intention)

    Reds 39% +3% since May
    Plaid 23% +12% since May
    Con 22% -4% since May
    LDs 10% -10% since May

    __________

    LD loss at Plaid gain- Very Interesting!

  46. @ Billy Bob

    Re Performance

    I wrote a longish (& probably boring post) about improving communities. I said that one project that is generally successful is community theatres/ performance centers.

    Provided they are not hijacked by an elite, who want to stage The Steamie or Trainspotting (or similar that the ‘locals can identify with’), they are usually very successful.

    Karaoke style singing & comedy are often the favourites. 8-)

  47. Alec/Laszlo

    Appendix B of the IFS report sheds light on the treatment of HB & DLA :-

    On HB -So far as I can see, no behavioural changes , like moving to cheaper accommodation, or getting reduced rents; are assumed.
    In essence then, the whole of the HB saving is assumed to come out of the pockets of the claimants. They even include the notional “loss” incurred by new claimants by comparison with the old rates.

    On DLA-They ” randomly remove entitlement to DLA from the appropriate number of claimants in order to match the long run saving from this policy (around £1.4 billion).”
    ie, in essence no allowance is made for incorrect, , or inappropriate or unjustified DLA claims. The current payout is treated as correct & unalterable by circumstance of the claimant -known or unknown..existing or new.

  48. Colin,

    Percisely the point I made yesterday. They IFS and DWP (blue and red) have clearly not thought through how they are going to do this. It would be possilbe to conduct a qualitative study into cases of fraud. the DWP has long had an obession with quantitative methodology- it does not answer all questions.

    How about asking the dog on the street?

  49. Choppy waters ahead in the Autumn for the ConDem coalition. Spending review speculation during the party conference season, could lead to a few arguments.

    Expect to see Clegg and other Lib Dem ministers suffer, while Cameron and his Tory team have a mini celebration at their conference. It will then become quite clear which party is benefiting most from the coalition and this will force Clegg to act. By act I mean Clegg will become more demanding in getting Lib Dem policies to the heart of government plans. This will cause arguments that could lead to fractures taking place in the Tory party.

    Meanwhile D Miliband (he should win) and a Labour party relieved of pressure of government, will be able to take a good look at their policy positions, hopefully get rid of the buzy bodies that strangled the life out of the country with red tape and hopefully re-connect with normal people. If Labour acknowledge their control freak ways and stubborness in believing they are always right, they might just start to regain a level of support.

    My prediction is that Labour may even take a lead in the polls by the end of this year. With the state of the economy likely to be in dire state for the next few years, there will be massive pressure on government ministers and ConDem backbenchers. This will be particularly the case with new MP’s and inexperienced ministers. Due to the stress of this we could start to see ministers resigning or being replaced and backbenchers starting to rebel.

    I can’t see this coalition government running for more than two years, even if they could suffer in an early election

  50. That Welsh poll would hammer the LDs in all three seats they hold in Wales..

    Blue would gain 1
    Red would gain 1

    their remaining seat would be very very close with Plaid having an outsdie chance of taking it… At the last election their was a big swing to yellow inthat seat away from Plaid so one would imagine there is a lot of lfoating voters in the constituency… (see below)

    may 2010
    Mark Williams Liberal Democrat 19,139 50.0 +13.5
    Penri James Plaid Cymru 10,815 28.3 -7.6

    Mark Williams MP, might be worth keeping an eye one… I suspect he has the eebie jeebies after thi spoll.

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