I don’t normally do a post everyday on YouGov’s daily tracking figures – it is, after all, the trend that counts, not the change from day to day. This one is worth noting though. Following on from the net approval rating of zero yesterday, YouGov’s net approval for the government tonight is minus 2 – 39% approve of the government, 41% disapprove of the government. This is the first time the coalition have scored a negative approval rating.

Voting intention tonight is at CON 41%, LAB 38%, LDEM 13%

479 Responses to “YouGov’s government approval turns negative”

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    The think tank news as embarrassing as it is and as poorly repudiated as it was, will not make much difference. The news is CUTS CUTS CUTS anyway so why would the think tank matter. But oh yes happy smilling faces and happy happy families will win a lift for the Tories for about a week.

  2. Richard Dawson,

    Good Q..

    I expect a 40-40% tonight. Governments in daily polls tend to pick up the further they get from Sunday Papers. I observed it with Labour and expect the same with blue and yellow…

    It backs up Howard’s point about the press.

    (OF course I hope I am wrong at it reads something like 38- 42)

  3. richard D

    the baby edges it, sad but probably true. the personal is more important than the political

  4. Speaking of the baby, the little mite shall have 3 Christian names, the 3rd of which is very very Cornish.
    Will the LDs loose South Cornwall to the Tories now?
    Also what welcome return to Tory standards that the child is named for where she was born, not where she was conceived, like a Beckham or Ali G’s child.

  5. As I understand NC’s riposte to IFS it amounts to ‘if you are going to stay on benefits, it’ll cost you dear but if you get on your bike and get a job, you could be less worse off, but only if the job is in the £20,000s’.

    Is that a fair summary?
    Admittedly IFS apparently did not include the extra money to be spent on children’s education.

  6. Eoin
    If it did go 38 42 we wold not be able to conclude anything while drowned in yippees and smileys from Amber and Sue. (Remember MOE?)

  7. Howard,

    Clegg could have muttered a better defence.

    If I was inclined to suppport the government I would have argued the following… The decision to cap housing benefit is incredibly progressive since they very poor live in accomodation which does not yield much rental income for tis landloards. Thus far, the huge portions claimed in housing benefit by those simply wanting to live in luxurious accomdoation that their lifestyle does not merit since they are living above their means probably means that the right people will henceforth get the help they need. the IFS have not studied what occupants claim what benefit nor have they studied the class variation of the respective tenants in medium costing properties or some of the luxurious properties that annoy GO so. He would have had tonnes of media stories to demonstrate his case (Nicola Sturgeon certainly could have helped him with one).. I and I suspect many others have other cases to tell.

    Capping housing benefit is a cracking idea and NC should have had the courage of his conviction to back it.

    but then it iant my job to defend the coalition so I will not mention it.

  8. Eoin & Laszlo

    Thanks for replies on voting for The Great Leader.

    Very democratic it would seem !

  9. Howard,

    MoE indeed. NBeale still visits me in my sleep. “No change”

  10. @ Billy Bob

    “@Laszlo – I understood that you would be voting – next month prehaps?”

    If you mean the Hungarian local elections – yes they will be held next month (although I have the voting right there, I don’t exercise it, because I don’t live there, so I would not carry the responsibility for my voting). I’m pretty sure that Fidesz (right) will carry most of the country except for some districts of Budapest and some districts of the large cities. It’s sad, because they really don’t have anything to offer, but the Socialists made themselves completely unelectable and the leadership should be immediately fired. The only thing that may indicate that reality is coming in is that the government (Fidesz) called the IMF in again after kicking them out in June. It’s not positive for the country, but it could help the government to come to senses (so far they have been busy with rewriting the constitution as they have 2/3 majority).

  11. howard

    i would not worry so much about this budget it’s the ones that come after that count. as i understand it the PA is set to rise by £1000 a year every year. i would expect the dems to push hard for the PA to be equivalent to a full time minimum wage by the time of the next GE. the dems would then be able to campaign on a slogan along these lines

    Liberal Democrats care about the working poor, no tax for those that earn least

    ok that slogan needs a bit of work but i think it would be a knockout campaigning line

    and the best bit is that the dems own this policy 100%, the blues have no chance of claiming it as their own

  12. Roland

    “the 3rd of which is very very Cornish.”

    …..ummmm-Cornish wife-retired there ( once !)-hope you don’t mind me commenting.

    Endellion is the name of a Cornish Saint ( actually they were mostly Irish)-so is the name of a church in a village up on the north coast near where they were staying.

    It’s in the area generally known a Chelsea on Sea-where Toffs , and mini toffs foregather in the summer ( the mini toffs are a bleeding pain in the neck -but spend a lot so no one says ).

    It’s quite close to that quaint unspoilt North Cornish fishing village PadStein-where you can get decent fish & chips for £100 & still have change to throw at a local peasant ( Sue would love it )

    Lowenna would have been nicee-but it’s the little one’s place of birth-& the vicar will be pleased I expect.

  13. RICHARD in Norway

    “no tax for those that earn least”

    Indeed-and Clegg got that into the Budget-no doubt it will be built on in future.

    So I can’t see how the headlines on the IFS study can be true. If they have taken chunks of people on low pay out of tax , how can they have been hit worst?

    Maybe they have just focused on welfare benefit-hence NC’s reply.

    I think Eoin’s effort was better than Cleggs-but the IFS thing is puzzling & I can’t find any examples on their website-just lots of bar charts.

  14. @ Eoin

    I don’t think that this would have been a good strategy for Clegg to counter IFS (even though it’s true that the system is abused). The problem is that the government has no data either about the issues that you listed: rather dangerous to admit, while the IFS report sets out the assumptions (maybe questionable ones) very clearly and they were not only about housing benefit. One cannot really contrast the clarity of these assumptions with that of the govenrment’s.

    One answer could have been that by 2012 there would have been positive effects of the cuts (ok, it’s a bit difficult to claim, but can be done) and hence from 2012 the economic situation would have superseeded the IFS assumptions (of course, it is a quasi-commitment).

    I was more suprised by the Treasury’s response than Clegg’s: it was a kind of who cares. Had IFS came out with this report in 2 weeks time, the effect would have been much bigger, but they did not, so they can claim that it’s a professional rather than a political debate.

  15. @Roland… Beckhams and Baron-Cohens missed a trick there, Flo Ro is almost as cool as J Lo (I appreciate you may not have heard of her. :)

  16. @ Colin

    The report is here: ht tp://www.ifs.org.uk/bns/bn108.pdf and Appendix B (page 25) sets out some of the issues.

  17. Thanks Laszlo

    Off to watch Spurs on TV

    Will read it anon.

  18. Eoin, why Clegg could not come back with this (apart from probably not having read the report):

    It’s based on DWP report + committed total cuts and then using a distribution model to allocae it to various percentiles. While the model could be wrong, it would have meant that he actually had to repeat the scale of cuts – he does not want to talk about those, especially not the size of the figures.

  19. Laszlo,

    Thanks for that. I’m off to the gym but I’ll post a reply later…


  20. @ Colin

    Labour leadership.

    The voting is split into 3 groups:
    1. MPs
    2. Union members
    3. Ordinary members (which includes Labour Councillors, I believe).

    To give you some idea of the so-called ‘power’ of the unions:
    Say there are 200 MPs who qualify; &
    6.0M Union members
    200,000 Labour Party Members (& rising).

    So union members (who each may vote) have their vote restricted to 1/30th of a Labour Party member’s vote; Labour Party member’s votes are worth 1/1000th of an MP’s vote. So each individual union member vote is worth 1/30,000th of an MP’s vote.

    To off-set that, a union member can also join the Labour Party & thereby have 2 votes.

    If only 3.33% of union members voted, that would make each vote equivalent to a Labour Party member’s vote. Therefore, if only 3.33% of union members voted & a union member was also a Labour Party member, then effectively that person would have 2 votes. That would still only be worth 1/500th of an MP’s vote.

    I believe this is accurate – but anybody thinks not & would like to correct this information, I’d take no offence. 8-)

  21. colin

    do you follow spurs, they are my team, them and celtic

  22. Vey interesting news I just picked up having been in meetings all day- surprised none of the reds have seem to have spotted it yet.

    h ttp://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/the-staggers/2010/08/labour-cruddas-david

    Jonny Cruddas has been one of my favourite Labour politicians for a long time.

    His endorsement will undoubtedly have an impact.

    “David is not just going down a checklist of policies; he seems to me to be echoing a more fundamental sentiment, in terms of what Labour needs to do. I’m much more interested in that, rather than in just reciting some policy options, because the scale of the defeat was so great. It’s a much more fundamental question of identity that we need to return to.”

    “There’s a pluralism I detect in him that I hadn’t witnessed before,” agrees Cruddas. “We see it around issues of party reform, devolution and local government, and around the question of national identities within Labour — are we heading towards a federal form of Labour, for instance? And, actually, he’s not just attacking the Liberals, as some of the others have.”

  23. @ Rob Sheffield

    I have been expecting John Cruddas to endorse DM for ages. A month or so ago, the Labour gossip blogs were filled with chatter about JC & DM collaborating.

  24. @ Laszlo

    If your union is affiliated with the Labour Party, you should contact them & ask when the ballots will be sent out. I think they have not yet been sent. 8-)

  25. Amber

    But Labour list/ labour uncut / and staggers coverage contains coments the vast majority of whom expected him to back Ed M !

    You are clearly a prophet 8-)

    I was quite interested in his (stated) logic for doing so.

  26. @ Richard in Norway

    Celtic has not been the same since ‘our Sunshine’ returned to Sweden. 8-)

  27. Big article just put up on the DM website bY Cruddas now:

    h ttp://www.davidmiliband.net/2010/08/25/david-will-give-working-people-the-chance-of-a-better-britain/

    “We’ve had a good leadership election and I’ve listened carefully to all the candidates. I am convinced that David Miliband is the candidate ready and able to meet the challenge of giving working people the chance of a better Britain.”

    “We must fight the Coalition every step of the way. But we also need to develop a new agenda for government, with proposals for a living wage, union representatives on company boards, new social housing and investment in green jobs, just for starters.”

    “A new leader isn’t the silver bullet to solve our problems. David can’t fix Labour on his own. We all have a role to play. But throughout the Leadership Contest David has shown that he is Labour through and through and knows how to take the fight to a Coalition Government that is dismantling so much of what makes our country great.”

    “I’ll be honest – there are a fair few things where David and I don’t agree. We hail from different backgrounds within Labour. But we both understand the need for new leadership and a new start.”

  28. @ Amber

    It is affiliated. Thanks for the suggestion.

  29. Thanks Everyone

    I think the consensus is that the baby edges the ifs report .

    Lets wait and see what the approval rating turns out at !

  30. amber

    i did not know about the sunshine nickname, are you talking about Larson. he was one of my favorites but he left quite a while ago. not easy to keep up with scot’s football here and to be honest i’m only moderately interested, although rangers winning last year was a bit of a slap in the face

  31. @ Rob Sheffield – “And…. he’s not just attacking the Liberals, as some of the others have.”

    Attempting to woo LDs on the one hand, while similtaneously vowing to drive them into extinction sounds like a gaffe imo, as well as betraying an ignorance of basic psychology on the part on M minor.

    DM alluded to dialogue with JC on his campaign website pretty much from the word go.

  32. @BILLY BOB
    Never heard of J-LO, hey ma man I just love dat bitches jelly.

  33. Baaad an’ sick bro

  34. @ Richard

    Larsen is one of the few footballers who had a special song that the fans created about/ for him. It was based on “You Are My Sunshine”. 8-)

    I was a Larsen fan before he arrived at Celtic, so you can imagine how delighted I was when he signed for them. :-)

  35. @ Richard

    I did a post to you about Larsen & Sunshine; it’s in moderation so either a wordpress issue or Anthony doesn’t want any soccer chat car crashes ;-)

  36. I think EM’s ideas on the LD’s may have been misunderstood.
    There’s a difference between attempting to woo LDs and attempting to woo LD voters.
    You can destroy someone in two ways. By opposing them. Or by making yourself so attractive to their loved ones, they are left high and dry and alone.
    Which is worse?
    If enough LD voters were successfully wooed by Labour, that could lead to their extinction.

  37. @ Rob Sheffield

    I think not a prophet; only 2 Milibands to choose from, I could’ve flipped a coin…. it was actually some of DM’s speeches that tipped me off. There were passages which sounded as if he had cribbed or collaborated with JC.

    I didn’t think DM would crib in such an obvious manner, so I concluded they had spoken with JC about them. 8-)

  38. @Julian Gilbert

    I did mean to say “… attempting to woo LD voters” etc.

    If someone goes to the trouble of voting for a party then at some level at least, they must have identified with that party. Hence the reference to basic psychology.
    Hope that clarifies. Apologies if I sound too partisan.

  39. Amber

    Thanks for that-interesting.


    No -not partic-but I would always watch them on TV-they play nice football.

    I’m old enough to remember Blanchflower , Jones, Mackay, Smith-& the sublime “Ghost” John White.

    That was a team to drool over.

  40. @BILLY BOB
    Fair enough. Actually, I think it’s partly ED’s own fault. Talking about making the LibDems an endangered species, extinction etc sounds like he opposes their policies. That’s how it was always going to be reported and how it will be remembered.
    The fact that he was actually saying Labour may have to be morelike the LDs is a subtlety lost in the rush for soundbites.
    Mind you, it could be said, as a prospective Labour leader, he should have been more aware of that.

  41. Yougov 42 : 37 : 12

  42. @ Richard

    Larsson is one of the few footballers who had a special song that the fans created about/ for him. It was based on “You Are My Sunshine”.

    I was a Larsson fan before he arrived at Celtic, so you can imagine how delighted I was when he signed for them. 8-)

  43. Latest government approval +3 (approve 41%, disapprove 38%) < Baby Cameron bounce?

  44. Government approval improves 5% in 24 hours.

    I wonder why? ;)

  45. Government Approval 41% approve 38% disapprove

  46. @ Cozmo

    Yougov 42 : 37 : 12

    MOE or the baby? 8-)

  47. Richard/Amber….

    hail hail :) Amber- wee jinky was da man… or Lubo! God just banged them in. I was in Seville in 2003 for the final. I paid a guy 400 euro for the ticket. he was from Kilmarnock (Celtic fan). He sold me the ticket on the costa del sol two days before the match on one condition?

    I took the money back. :) One big happy family- solidarity in action :)

  48. If you put Cons 42, Lab 42, Lib 6 into Electoral Calculus the Libs are down to 4 but the good news is that Cleggy keeps his seat and continue as leader!

  49. Which Labour leadership hopeful is most likely to have a baby in around 5 years time?

  50. @Amber Star
    “MOE or the baby? ”

    Got me pondering ! To measure the baby bounce effect maybe we need some more mini-Cleggs ? How many would we need to restore LD to the dizzy heghts of April-May ?

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