Just realised I’ve missed an Ipsos MORI poll of Scottish voting intentions here, MORI’s first Scottish voting figures since the general election.

Westminster: CON 14%, LAB 40%, LDEM 13%, SNP 29%
Holyrood Constituency: CON 11%, LAB 37%, LDEM 13%, SNP 34%
Holyrood Regional: CON 12%, LAB 38%, LDEM 12%, SNP 29%

The poll also asked if people in Scotland supported the release of Abdelbasset Ali al-Megrahi one year on. 35% think it was right, 54% wrong. This compares to 42% right and 45% wrong when MORI orginally asked back in 2008.


264 Responses to “Latest Ipsos MORI Scottish poll”

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  1. Amber/Eoin – I see AB has released his Manifesto – Aspirational Socialism today. Very good too.

  2. Colin & Peter Ross

    “I`d just like to see how the Scots would react if they had to pay for everything themselves !!. ”

    I presume that neither of you have actually looked at the data contained in PESA, or Regional GVA (both from the UK Government) or the GERS data.

    If you had, you would have known that, while the very existence of London as the capital, distorts the figures in its favour, Scotland has the 3rd highest GVA of any UK “region”.
    With 8.4% of the population, Scotland generates 8.3% of UK public revenue (even without oil revenues) and 10.4% with them.

    While we have 9.4% of identifiable expenditure, the UK (by definition) does not allocate the 18% of unidentified public expenditure by geographic area. For example, it deems that all of the spend on the London Olympics is equally beneficial to all parts of the UK. While military spending is obviously designed to protect all of the UK (or make us all equally complicit in illegal wars), it should also provide economic benefit equally across the UK. Under the last Government, MoD figures showed that spend in Scotland was 5.6 bn less than provided by Scots taxpayers. That looks likely to be slashed significantly by the ConDems.

  3. @Jack

    Many of the UK relatives view it as convenient to the US, UK and Scottish authorities that the appeal process was terminated.
    Abdelbasset Ali al-Megrahi has made clear his wish that all secret documents relating to his case be made public.

  4. YouGov; CON 41%, LAB 39%, LDEM 12%.
    The first 39 Labour have had in a long time I think.

  5. Apart from in Scotland of course.

  6. Julian Gilbert

    Polls mean nothing at the moment… Lots of noise..
    5 more years to next GE!!

  7. We shouldn’t pay too much attention to one result.
    No Sorry. Can’t resist it.
    Anyone know when was the last time Labour got 39 in a poll?

  8. Colin – :roll: Just because I can!

  9. Gov aprov 40%
    Gov disaprov 40%

    Net +/-0%.

    Anthony did say it would be a matter of when and not if.
    _________________________________________

    All governments go through it. I have head it called ‘slow burn’ I prefer to call it ‘big yellow taxi’. I think big Gordy can afford a wry smile tonight.

  10. Latest YouGov/Sun voting intentions CON 41%, LAB 39%, LDEM 12%.

    Unless m.o.e probably a reaction to Mijneer Calamity

  11. And a for the Labour 39…..

    Wait for it……

    8O

  12. Amber there’s a “lol” one too. We are complete.

    :lol:

  13. Sue,

    The leftie libs are formed in a group called the Beveridge Group (google em). It is possible to link to them from there….

    Farron
    Russell
    Hancock
    Pugh
    Howard
    (Carmichael was a founder member but he is now a gov. whip)

    But if you stick to Beveridge Group you will not go far wrong. I am surprised Featherstone is not in it because she is known to be a leftie…. Teather? We’ll she just gets my goat I am afraid.

    there are other lefties Ming and CK spring to mind

  14. Jack,

    I agree with you. Big Al Magrahi (a moniker ascribed to him by Frankie Boyle) is as guilty as a US Marine in Fallujah….

  15. Eoin – Thanks very much. I was particularly interested in he Scottish ones, but always good to know who are the Great Disgruntled.

  16. Sue

    “Colin – Just because I can!”

    Fantastic-many congratulations.

  17. Well blow me down-

    “Aspirational Socialism” disagree with all of it- by all means but I defy anyone not to credit Ab with imagination, conviction and the transparency of intent, that we wish all our politicians had.

    Now that his wife’s health is on the mend i do hope he can commit more to the campaign……

  18. Those YG party numbers (41-39-12)

    That is the BEST Labour poll number by ANY organisation since 5th October 2007…..

    8-O :-P

  19. Colin – Thank you. It has made me very happy.

  20. @ Sue

    Outstanding – now when you are tempted to explode in a way that would get you moderated, you can just roll your eyes in disbelief. 8)

  21. Amber – I know!!!! The relief is tangible.

  22. Amber. Eoin. Sue

    AB manifesto

    I looked at it on his website earlier on this evening- very sound and coherent document.

    But he is not going to win. We all know that.

    Various factors (and forces..) have conspired to make it a two horse race. Notwithstanding the nature of our electoral college (that hangover from the Bennite heyday).

    He is going to make an extremely good Business Shadow (or CLG).

  23. Oh tonight is a night of great ironies.

    Putting the latest YouGov of 41 Con, 39 Lab, 12 Lib into the seat predictor leaves Labour only 12 seats short of a majority.

    Sadly, the Libs would only win 11 seats……

  24. Sue – what about that polling number?!

    41-39, nice trend coming there, Cozmo could be right on the button… :-)

    …& government approval 0% (okay net government approval but it sounds brilliant without the ‘net). 8-)

  25. Rob – I thought the underdog always won these things?

  26. OLD NAT

    Thanks

    Sounds great.

    So what’s stopping you?

  27. Colin
    Thanks for the correction. I was guilty of not checking facts before writing. I was thinking of the £23000 odd that 65 plussers can ‘earn’ before not getting the higher personal allowance and got confused with what you wrote about the £2440, the figures being similar (except the extra nought on the end!).

    Apols.

  28. @ Colin

    Nothing is stopping OLD NAT; it’s the unionists (like me) who are spoiling it for everybody else in Scotland.

    And spoling it for some people in England (e.g. Valerie) who’d like to have a Federation of Northern States. BTW, despite being a unionist, I could see that Federation stretching all the way to London, eventually. 8-)

  29. Sue-

    too many votes are already in-the-bag for both Milibands.

    AB only managed 11% in the primary held over the weekend. Ed Balls 7.6%….both might get more when it is run again (they did not run it as an AV vote).

    It will be interesting to compare the fives’ votes when it is held again in a week or two.

    That only 300 could be bothered to vote was actually the most dire statistic from that ‘exercise’ though.

  30. @Amber
    “nice trend coming here”
    —————–
    Tiz coming good even though yet the cuts have yet to bite. Sue teased out the trend from my stats I think. Lab lead now likely during September. Gap has been narrowing just as AW said. IMHO when the lines cross over it could be be quite sudden and maybe a week or two earlier than expected.

    Congrats to Sue on the new smilies. Awesome !
    8)

  31. @ Rob Sheffield

    But he is not going to win. We all know that.
    ———————————————
    I suppose we do… but you can’t be certain until the votes are all counted.

    I’d certainly like to see AB be (at worst) a credible 3rd behind the brothers Miliband.

    I’m going to continue trying to increase his share of the vote to make sure he is, at least, a prominent figure in the shadow cabinet. 8-)

  32. Cozmo – I take no credit, it was all Julian Gilbert.

  33. Amber,

    Unionist is the wrong word.

    To make no distinction between black poverty, white poverty, English overty, Irish poverty and so on does not make one a unionist. I think humanist is the right word. We all work better when we work together. Now unfortunately for the English, that includes our european counterparts as well… :) Eventually, we will be one big world :) I give up on nationalism when I was 17, I decide it would slow the equality of man, not further it.

  34. Colin

    That Scotland is not an economic basket case, as you and Peter (and many others) suggest is not an argument FOR Independence. That is an entirely separate argument, which Amber and I (and those who think like us) will have with each other. We both have valid political positions, and will try to persuade others of our relative positions.

    The point of my post was simply to demonstrate the nonsense that many people believe about Scotland, and its economy and its people.

    If you want England (or Wales, or wherever you live) to be independent (or simply free of Scots), then you are free to campaign and vote for it. I’d be fascinated to hear why you think Amber should be excluded from the country that she feels part of, even though the majority of voters in her (and my) part of the current UK still choose to be part of the UK Union.

    If my side eventually wins, then I’ll feel sorry for Amber. Her position is important to her.

  35. ALDC web site has interesting page on next byear’s local elections. These are the councillors up for election
    Con, Lab, LD, Gn, BNP, Ind,Other, Total

    5038, 1581, 1866, 61, 15, 178, 622, 9361

    Could 41, 39, 12, 8 be coverted into a prediction?

  36. Obviously I’m going to ride to the aid of the Crown Dependencies and the Isle of Man in particular. With regard to the UK it’s a bit of a myth that they are tax havens in any case. There are agreements between the UK and The IOM and CIs to exchange information on bank accounts etc and I believe this is shortly to become automatic.

    I have to inform Eoin that the days of Fianna Fail bag men with stuffed attache cases on the plane from Dublin are long gone. You have to account for any cash paid in over a certain sum (I think it’s £500) and setting up bank accounts is now horrendous requiring about a dozen different pieces of paper and is especially difficult for the local elderly who may not have passports. In banks, people you’ve known for decades ask you for proof of identity.

    With regard to those claiming residence in the Isle of Man, if you’re in the UK for more than 182 days in any tax year you are supposed to pay UK Tax. Over a longer period this reduces to an average of over 91 days per year over 4 years. Incidentally, if Neil A thinks house prices are cheap here, he must live in a very well-off part of the South of England to make that comparison.

    Any illegality should be easy to catch. Remember that any transaction has two ends. The real problem is twofold and both problems lie within the UK. Firstly UK rules on who should pay tax are pretty lax – remember all that row about non-doms? Indeed for the wealthy and for companies, the UK is regarded itself as a tax haven by many other countries.

    To give an example; the residency rule above was supposed to be changed so that arrival and departure days were included, but I’ve just checked the HMRC site and noticed it hasn’t been. This means you can work Monday – Friday in London for 50 weeks a year; fly off to your residence of choice at the weekends; and 3 days x 50 weeks means your still under the limit. Do you think Sir Philip Green has been having a word?

    The second problem is the implementation of what rules there are. HMRC has been a target for cut-backs for a long time, both in cost saving and in personnel. As it’s not “front-line” just “administrators” you can prove your devotion to small government by swinging the axe. Who will complain? – certainly not the highly affluent with their tax advisers who are the sort of people you mix with. Of course there is also a belief that you need less people because the wonderful computer systems that are always about to be installed will do away with the need for them.

    As a result HMRC tend to avoid examining anything that that will take too much time or trouble or may cause political waves. An accountant friend tells me that at one time any personal tax return submitted by an accountant for a client was given a free ride.

    In addition HMRC has been very eager to not prosecute offenders – preferring to come to agreements where often not even all the escaped tax is paid, never mind penalties. This is partly because of the difficulty of prosecution and partly political pressure. Furthermore, because of a constant loss of people to better paid jobs in the private sector, they just don’t have the skilled people to investigate.

    Alec is right that tax lies at the heart of any plausible strategy to reduce the deficit; but to go after the crown Dependencies would be a waste of time. Apart from anything else there are numerous other less well regulated and cooperative jurisdictions the big players would simply move to.

    What is more, you can’t refuse to do business with offending jurisdictions. Not when some of them are EU members (Luxembourg, Ireland, indeed the UK) or US states (Delaware). There are too many international treaties involved – treaties that the UK has usually done its best to be as “business-friendly” as possible.

    There is the usual noise from the free-marketeers: that to interfere with the free and anonymous movement of money is both impossible and sacrilegious. However, when politically expedient, cooperation can usually be obtained on drug money, terrorism financing, etc without too much trouble. Much greater cross-border is possible, but it needs the political will in a world where political elites are only too happy to do what the rich tell them.

    The Crown Dependencies are on the whole a sideshow – anyone attacking them is ignorant of the way tax dodging works (I’m using that to include both avoidance and evasion) or trying to divert from the real problem – tempting for Labour supporters who want avoid “why didn’t you do anything?”. The real solutions lie closer to home, but the political will is needed, both to run HMRC properly and to sort out the legal side. Since Osborne’s strategy seems to be to do what the Big Four accountancy firms (and tax advisers) tell him, I think we may have a long wait.

  37. @Amber & Sue
    ATTAD now down to around 53 from a peak of 63 to 65 during April and May.

  38. @ Éoin

    Yes, you are correct: Unionist has unfortunate connotations. I am not a separatist; I can’t see the point – hence my Federation of Northern States… I am putting humpty together again before he has even climbed onto the wall, never mind tumbled from it.

    To divide & conquer, ’tis not in my nature. 8-)

  39. @ Eoin

    Just curious, would you define yourself as a European then? (I only ask cos I do and haven’t met anyone else who does yet.)

  40. @Rob Sheffield – 300? That is disappointing.

    15,000 voted in the Bassetlaw primary… better organisation perhaps?

  41. Sue and Amber

    You are both getting a tad overcited about this poll.. Lots of noise out their me ladies!!
    It’s 5 years until the next GE.. If you are both going to keep clutching at straws for 5 years.. You will have enough straw to make a field full of scarecrows!!

  42. Wayne – Now then, don’t be :mrgreen:

  43. @ OLD NAT

    Thank you for that. Thanks also for posting the financial details. I had seen those before but couldn’t find them & had to be content with posting that Scots actually subsidise England (to a certain extent).

    I get very tired of Roland types whingeing about Scots receiving all these mythical English hand-outs.
    8-)

  44. Eoin Clarke

    “I give up on nationalism when I was 17”

    That’s about the age when I gave up on the UK! I remain a “Unionist”, in that I still think the European Union (for all its faults) allows neighbouring countries to work more closely together and remove many barriers to integration and closer cohesion.

    Of course, I was strongly influenced by the UK still demonstrating its imperial stance at Suez. Blair indicated that that position has not fundamentally changed.

    In the Scottish context, “Unionist” is actually the correct term for Amber. She believes in continuing the political Union that is the UK (whether she believes in the EU, I don’t know). We use the terms “Unionist” and “Nationalist” in a particular Scottish context.

    Civic nationalism in Scotland has no relation to the ethnic nationalism that exists elsewhere. We’re mongrels and proud of it! In Catalunya, their political discourse distinguishes between “Independistas” (like me), and “Nationalists” (I forget the Catalan or Spanish word) which is used to describe the Falangists.

    When commenting about a different political system, it’s important not to imagine that the same word has the same connotations. Think “liberal” in the USA v Europe!

    I would like to see some form of World Government – though that is far away. However, even then I wouldn’t want it deciding on fixing the potholes in Ayrshire or Fermanagh. A sensible model for government needs to take account of the communities that people feel part of, and which powers are appropriate for various levels of government.

    Bottom line – I don’t want to be British because I don’t want to be part of a country that spends scarce resources on WMD to keep their seat in the UN, or mounts illegal wars because they want to pretend that they are still “one of the big boys”.

  45. @Wayne – so, labour not falling off the cliff nationally,
    and, tories clearly not in landslide territory just yet then? ;)

  46. Billy,

    Yes I would. In terms of Christianity, our Architecture, the development of our history, our democraicies our way of life.. There is (to me at least) such a thing as a European civilisation. I accept it is fluid and not rigid. The Algerians for instance, have enhanced France greatly, as have other N. Africans enhanced Granada and such places…

  47. eoin & alex

    posting tax returns online is fantastic, they do it here as well, of course the hard right don’t like it and complain about the right to privacy, people nosing on their neighbors and the classic invented concern of children being bullied because their parents were low earners(the other children find out via the Internet!?)

    but you can have confidence that everyone is paying their fair share, also it acts as a brake on income inequality. i checked up on my boss and i was total dumbfounded to find out that he only earned 3 times as much as me even though he is in charge of a factory with 90 workers and i am most definitely on the bottom rung

    on the subject of income inequality what do people think about fixing the income of MPs at a multiple of the minimum wage, in that way they could only get a pay rise if they put up the minimum wage, i was thinking about 5 times

    anyhow i’m off to bed, i’ll catch up tomorrow

  48. Oldnat,

    Yes I can empathise with your federalist outlook greatly. The difficulty for me with Irish nationalism is that is seeks to define itself too rigidly. I want a country where the next plane of of immigrants do not have to learn the Irish language, play hurley (shinty in your case) or ingest guinness in copious amounts. assimilation in the strictest sense of the word is an anethema. I like citizenship, paying taxes, communal solidarity but nationas should be neutral and harmonious.

    A world state would be great but for now Constantinople is as far as I can stretch it… I’ve been outside Europe and realised that our differences are great…. I hope it is not always that way… but I aint going back to Darfur in out a hurry- nor my partner jamaica…

  49. I think Jack was asking about reactions to the al-Magrahi fuss. YouGov have a poll up showing Scottish reactions to the US demands for Senate hearing. The Scots certainly do not agree with the Americans. the opinion poll equivalents of Gey, bile yer heid are here:

    ht tp://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/YG-Archives-Pol-SNP-180810.pdf

    And may I apologise for originally putting up the link to the WordPress smilies. Sue will never let us see the end of it now! :-(

  50. Eoin
    I realise that there are so many negative connotations to the word in Northern Ireland and in relic form in Scotland. As Seamus Heaney described it, a penny halfpenny looking down on a penny. (Unfortunately we have too many people on this site who think they are the full penny halfpenny). But I am an advocate of the UK as a rare thing, an entity where four nations might live together without too much friction and with good governance. I think the model could grow within itself. I am interested in how the Commonwealth is attracting countries which have never had a relationship with the UK who want the credentialing effect of association. The “arc of prosperity” was not just a figment of Alex Salmond’s ever active imagination, but the inner ring of the metropolis you described in an earlier post. Two of the three of the inner arc have crashed to the ground and the concept of the UK should be responding to them, offering closer links.
    The corrosive hatreds that mark this site are a negative response to that history, a response that so readily returns to a re-enactment of Zulu! “These union wallahs have out their assegis!”
    But there is a real world out there. On Monday I was at a Civic Dinner for our oil-city twin, Stavanger. A local member of Aberdeen’s 6 hundred strong Norwegian community was in my company. She caused some embarassment to the Norwegian delegation when she bluntly said that her company, a Norwegian subsidiary of Halliburton had quadrupled in size in two years because it had moved to the UK. She was, as was the Mayor of Stavanger, a member of the Norwegian Conservative Party but she went on to say that while she would not rule out ever returning to live in norway, she thought it unlikely. “The NHS is the best in the world”
    Richard may tell us but I think that the Norwegian Conservative Party may be to the right of ours in some ways … but they don’t live off re-runs of Zulu

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