Two more polls from last night. ComRes has a new voting intention poll for the Mirror and GMTV. Topline figures are CON 39%(nc), LAB 33%(nc), LDEM 15%(-1), so virtually no change from their poll in the Indy a week and a half ago, and still showing Labour somewhat lower than other companies.

YouGov’s daily tracker meanwhile showed figures of CON 42% LAB 37% LD 14%, with the Conservatives maintaining a lead of 4-5 points or so.

One thing I missed from the ICM poll last night, they asked an AV voting intention question and found the contest neck and neck. 45% supported AV, 45% opposed it. This is very much in line with the YouGov poll on Monday showing the No campaign just one point ahead.


448 Responses to “New YouGov and ComRes polls”

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  1. Richard

    “blues and reds have far more in common with each other than they do with us. they both have this authoritarian streak”

    Returning-rather more seriously now-to the above.

    May I ask you-in the absence of any response or interest from Howard:-

    Does your belief-as outlined above-lead you to the conclusion that the LibDem party at Westminster should stay as an independent third party, and never make political alliance with either Cons or Labour.

    If the answer is yes -are you therefore content with a role of permanent opposition-or do you believe a LibDem government is achievable?

    Thanks

  2. @Colin

    RE America, Australia and social class

    You said

    My comments are based on personal experience

    Well mine are also having spent extended periods in both countries: but that subjective experience is also backed up by research and hard data- your subjective experience is not ;-)

    You appended that comment with,

    & discussion with ones professional family & their friends

    Well, if they are remotely like their friend and kin then…WHAT a surprise :-)

    ‘Class’ is merely a descriptor- the shorthand if you like- for the real crime: that birth, geographical location and parental occupation continue- in ALL the capitalist western countries- to negatively impact on a child’s prospects and the eventual way their life turns out. That’s the real scandal and I never here you discussing that!

    Those like yourself who seek to decry the ‘descriptor’ (and those who give them succour) are merely attempting to deflect attention away from that simple truth.

  3. LDs could be facing 13% and no AV.

  4. YOUGOV; CON 41%, LAB 37%, LDEM 14%

    Back to the pre-Cuts announcement equilibirum then :-)

  5. colin

    sorry maybe i confused you with someone else

    us? although i am no longer a member or active in any way, i still consider myself to be a liberal democrat, i have been a liberal since i was a boy back in the days of david steel and the lib-lab pact. i can’t imagine anything clegg or any other leader could do that could change my political allegiance

  6. @NeilA

    If you met me without knowing any of that you would assume I was from a privileged background. I am a public school educated Tory with a plummy accent. I utterly accept that I am middle class, but the only thing that made me so was a council grant for a boarding school

    In the year after the Williams education act I passed an bursary entrance exam-previously the 11plus- and got a full scholarship to the top (what had been) grammar school attached to Bristol Cathedral. My dad was a lorry driver/AE and my mum was a hospital cleaner/ HCA.

    Yours and my educational experiences were fortunate ‘accidents’: but they were instrumental in what happened to us i.e. we both had an upper middle class education.

    The people I went to school with all went on to university; the people I lived nearby on the outskirts of north bristol almost entirely did not.

    That is ‘class’ for you and those who deny its pernicious influence do so- in my experience- never for good or positve reasons…

  7. Joe james B,

    I fear for them. It may well be 9% a hammering at the Holyrood elections (They are leaking to blue, SNP, green and red).

  8. @Rob,

    I basically agree with you. I suppose my point is that if Milburn is to tackle social mobility then the focus should be on educational opportunities rather than income.

    If you give £100,000 to someone it won’t change their “class’.

    If you give an £100,000 education to someone it almost certainly will.

  9. colin

    you pose an interesting question, two in fact

    1ST ? no i do not belive that the dems should refuse to cooperate with other parties, when an opportunity arises to steer a GOV in a liberal direction, it must be grasped in both hands.

    this does not mean that i have to support said GOV in a zombie like fashion

    2ND ? i am too old to belive that a libdem majority GOV is achievable. but when i was young i truly believed. i did go home to prepare for GOV. i still hope but that hope grows fainter with the years

  10. I actually think that it is a good thing being conscious of class. To start with 50% of British humour and 90% of British literature would be meaningless without this knowledge (and those are things that Brits are supposed to be good at).

    But more important class still does have a tremendous effect on the way British (and specifically English) society operates. To somehow ignore it and pretend it will therefore go away is naive. All the indicators show that social mobility is slowing down almost to a stop. If you care about any form of social justice or opportunity (as all but the most hidebound conservatives do); then you’ve got to observe how the subtle side effects of class stop many of those who could succeed, succeeding.

    It also seems to me, it can have a effect on how politics is done as well. Certainly much of New Labour at times seemed to have an almost visceral disdain for the traditional working class, coupled with an Pavlovian reaction to the wealthy: the rich rang a bell and they drooled. Blair and Mandelson were particularly prone to this; and both of them strike me as the sort of people who hang on to their upper-middle class status for dear life. It’s hard to deny that these feelings had an effect of Labour’s policies in Government.

    If you compare Britain with the USA, which claims to be free of a class system – despite an even lower social mobility, most extra wealth going to to top 1% and the last president being the son of a previous one – being conscious of class isn’t a bad thing. Those that say class doesn’t matter tend to be those that that do best out of it.

  11. roger

    WOW!!

    and goodnight all

  12. @ Pete B

    By your definition bank managers, some doctors, judges etc would be working class.
    ——————————————
    Yes they would. And some of them (the ones who aren’t delusional) happily admit to being working class or professional class (but not middle class).
    They are the ABs who vote Labour.
    8-)

  13. Ah I see your definitions now Amber. Working class is someone who votes Labour. Middle class is someone who doesn’t….

    In that case I’m all for social mobility. Lets get the working classes into the middle class pronto!!

  14. Pete B,

    Most high street banks employ school leavers for tuppence to man their cash desks. They earn a little over the minium wage.

    Roger,

    A large wealth gap is not the same thing as class. Noveau Riche are not shunned in the US like they are here. Ambition from all sections of society is encouraged. Here you are expected to know your place… Etiqueete, accents and sense and sensibility are less prohibitive. In short, you are some distance off if you think social class matters in the US anything like it does here…

    It may have the largest wealth gap and poor social mobility but it is not the same thing as class consciousness.
    _________________

    In addition to that, class can be a terribly debilitive thing if you happen to come from the under class. It is in no way a good thing… poking fun at toffs mind you might be jolly good fun – chin chin.

  15. @ NEIL A

    You can still make me LOL :-)

  16. @ Éoin

    In my experience, it is definitely accents, words (toilet, loo, lavatory) & colloquialisms or slang that are big discriminatory factors in the UK.

    I am loved by Americans & Canadians for my working class, Scottish accent & expressions. In the UK, the windows of career opportunity slam shut the moment I open my mouth. 8-)

  17. @Eoin
    “Most high street banks employ school leavers for tuppence to man their cash desks. They earn a little over the minium wage.”

    I specifically mentioned bank MANAGERS, not staff. And anyway even bank staff might be middle class. Wouldn’t a counter clerk be considered to be slightly higher on the social scale than, say, a coal miner on the grounds that his job is not manual labour? This is despite the fact that the miner would earn a lot more money.

  18. Growing up I learned to be something of a chameleon. I can do broad London geezerspeak all the way up to Tim Nice-but-Dim. Prejudice cuts both ways. If I want to be taken seriously by policemen and criminals I talk common. If I want to be taken seriously by lawyers and doctors I talk posh. The slamming of doors works both ways I think, although of course the doors that are slammed on you for being “posh” are rarely the ones that had well paid jobs and pots of money behind them.

  19. Pete B,

    I had two friends quit as branch managers in the spring….

    Branch manager is akin to supervising at MacDonalds (the latter not to be sniffed at, sicne their pension and perks ackage is better).

  20. Eoin

    I’m not suggesting class is a good thing – just that being aware of it and its consequences is a lot better than pretending “we’re all middle class” nowadays or whatever. That’s what I mean by class consciousness.

    Nor am I suggesting that class structures are the same in every country. America is different but class-ridden in different ways. Accent, breeding and connections may differ (and differ within the country), but they still count.

    And I’m certainly not naive enough to believe that money doesn’t matter in any country. If you’re rich enough, people may sneer at you behind your back; but they’ll still drink your Pol Roger. Your children will go to school with their children and be absorbed (if the money is still there).

    Of course class can be dreadful when used against the “underclass”, the very construction of which concept is then used to persecute them. Why I brought up New Labour, was that many of their policies in, for example, education, seemed designed to keep what they say as the undeserving poor as far away from them and their kind as possible.

  21. @ Neil A

    Yes, I could easily learn to speak in a different way; or simply continue to work for American & Canadian corporations.

    On a similar subject, was it always your ambition to join the police force? It’s an unusual occupation for an ex-public schoolboy, no? 8-)

  22. Richard in Norway

    Thank you for the coortesy of your reply.

  23. Rob Sheffield

    “for the real crime: that birth, geographical location and parental occupation continue- in ALL the capitalist western countries- to negatively impact on a child’s prospects and the eventual way their life turns out. That’s the real scandal and I never here you discussing that!”

    I don’t need to.

    My parents never owned a house.
    I lived in a council house.
    My father was Labour to his roots.
    I went to Grammar School.

  24. Eoin

    “A large wealth gap is not the same thing as class. Noveau Riche are not shunned in the US like they are here. Ambition from all sections of society is encouraged. ”

    Absolutely right.

  25. NEILA

    “the focus should be on educational opportunities rather than income.”

    Absolutely right-that is the problem area -not “Capitalism”

  26. Rob

    “that birth, geographical location and parental occupation continue- in ALL the capitalist western countries- to negatively impact on a child’s prospects ”

    So-if “capitalism” was abolished would that improve things, do you think?

    If “capitalism” is such a block on improving the prospects of the poor, why do you think China & Eastern Europes’ former Communist countries have turned to it? And why do you think a populous country like India has done so with such vigour?

    What would you replace it with , which would impact social mobility?

    You omitted from your list the quality of parental care.
    Do you not think -as NC appears to , that poor parenting is a more significant factor -than “parental occupation” for example ?

  27. Last nights YouGov

    Despite attempts by the press and many on here to talk down the UK and cause aggro. The coalitions popularity is shooting back up.. Bad luck chaps.. Better luck next time!!

  28. I’ve rejoined the thread.

    I like Martyn’s notion of class distinction based on homes. Eoin’s exploitation distinction I’m in agreement with.

    There is also the education aspect. Which seesm to be linked to affluence to a degree.

    My own view, somehat coloured perhaps, is that upper class comprises those who have the power (eg money) to exploit others. They are insulated to a degree against vicissitudes. Middle class is just an extension of working class.

  29. I won’t pretend to be aan expert on class in America, but I do know New York is one of the most elitist, class based societies in the world.

    I travelled overland coast to coast once, and the gap between rich and poor in the cities (I was in the South) shocked me enormously. The “picket fence” America we see on TV only exists in certain enclaves and the deprivation elsewhere was often third world. The Picket-Fence brigade would no more walk through the (usually black) slums than chew off their own arms.

  30. RogerinMexico,

    Roger,
    Re. Your earlier post on “class”

    Very interesting and thought provoking!
    In fact one of the best I’ve seen on here in ages!

    “class envy” particularly among socialist’s is an illness!

  31. Neil A (10.30pm) fascinating post.

    So, You, Eoin and I (and I think Amber) have almost identical levels of social mobility, yet we all see ourselves as still working class but you don’t. Fascinating. Perhaps our politics affect our judgement on this one. I think you’re spot on about education.

    By the way no dig whatsoever, I thought your post was charming.

  32. re class in the US

    the label “poor white trash” explains american attitudes perfectly

    it is probably the most offencive label in history. it really needs some thought to understand all it’s implications

    another one is “born on the wrong side of the tracks”

  33. Social Mobility: Amber is absolutely right. The education alone is not enough. The good job is not enough, or the nice house. To climb up, one must be thick skimmed, determined and resolute.

    May I share my favourite comment on social mobility?

    At uni, I was the only one of my cohort who came from a comprehensive school. I was invited to a friends house for dinner and her father put his fork down and said to his daughter “You know, of all your friends, I think Sue will be the most successful.” When she asked why, he said “Because she’s dragged herself up from the gutter to be here” and gestured around his fine dining room.

  34. Class is only an issue if you make it one !
    It is not an issue that bothers 99.99999% of the population. If people worry about what class they fit into, it is likely that they are insecure with themselves and feel that “so called class” is what is holding them back.
    I don’t know whether some people understand this but “classifying someone can be just as offensive as being racial towards someone”

    The human race is one and class only exists because a small proportion of the population choose to make it an issue!!

  35. I really hope Anthony doesnt moderate my last comment. It is an important point and by no means Partisan !

  36. Sue
    The picket fence
    The us satirist Jules Feiffer claimed that R Reagan was the first person to be President of two countries at once. The only problem was that he was an expert in one and knew nothing about the other. The one he knew about was mythical movie America where everyone had a picket fence and Johny had his paper round. The other was the real US that you travelled through.
    Is it possible that Camclegg is the uk Reagan? A couple of days ago Clegg made an amazing speech at a which could have come straight from Reagan about how instead of Labour’s hand-outs they would be helping people. As you might have predicted, the council centre from which he made the speech may close.
    Until now there has never been a uk politician able to speak this bilge with conviction. Maybe Clegg will fit the bill?

  37. wayne

    I’m sorry to inform you that you are mistaken

    people do care about class, they care a lot. i have had lots of conversations where class has reared it’s ugly head

    we may wish that class was a non issue, but in the real world…………………….

    it’s a shame really cos so much of the class thing is idiotic

    for example, i love using big words, but that makes me a class traitor(trying to be something i’m not)

    some higher class employers have also been nasty about my delusions of grandeur(know thy place)

    many poeple are resticted by class based attitudes. this does work both ways of course

  38. Barent Crockett
    “Until now there has never been a uk politician able to speak this bilge with conviction. Maybe Clegg will fit the bill?”

    Yes, I can now see this as NC’s role! The Cons must be delighted to have him.

  39. Oh dear, Barent should be Barney. Sorry.

    Must try harder.

  40. Richard

    “I’m sorry to inform you that you are mistaken, people do care about class, they care a lot”

    You don’t need to be sorry Richard, It does get talked about quite a bit on sites like this and by certain politicians (one party mainly, which for partisan reason, I wont mention)
    However in the real world, normal office, town or village environment , like where I live … I rarely hear it. People where I live and work (Bishops Stortford and London).. tend to be farely relaxed with themselves and accept people around them for what they are, rather than what class background they are from. Quite civilised really, wouldnt you say ?

  41. @Wayne

    It may be true that the human race is one race but that doesn’t mean there is only one class in the human race.

    On the contrary, since class differences appear to exist in nearly every country in the world and have done so throughout history, it seems likely that class is a natural, evolutionary development that facilitates propagation and survival of gene pools within societies.

  42. wayne

    “Quite civilised really, wouldnt you say ?”

    unbelivable i would say, bishops stortford sounds like utopia

    are they all libdemers

  43. john S

    good point, i will ponder that one while i’m out shopping

    must dash

  44. Richard In Norway

    Utopia no…Bishops Stortford is very normal … like most other places!!

    Enjoy your shopping.. pondering about what class someone is, as you pass each shopper !.. very sad

  45. On the 10th anniversary of Nuu Labour’s rule ICM conducted a survey…

    89% of people believed themselves to be judged by their class. (It was worse fr younger people 90%).

    Th epoll showed a very deep and growing North South divide and showed social mobility to be worse than ever.

    The deep divisions of class demarcation are etched accross the faces of us all.

    the impoverished grow old and haggard before their time with tooth decay you would not want your dog to have.

    the working class never own anything and by the time they pay it off it is not worth owning. Computers, cars, sofas all depreciate quicker than they can pay them off. Working class santa tries to buy the same presents and middle class santa but the family end up paying for it until easter. Every birthday, wedding or anniversary inviation is greeted with impending doom. The old suit goes to the dry cleaners, the boot polish aplied one last time to the “dress shoes”

    the middling classes lock the medicine cupboard on dinner party nights for fear the freinds on a trip to the WC notice their anti-depressants/painkillers as they keep up the appearance of being affluent

    These three groups of people account for a significant portion of our ‘society’. It is hurting and draining every last one of them and meanwhile we exist in a state of mass denial content that not all of that 2-3 trillion pound of consumer debt is ours.

    It is a sorry tale. Class matters a lot.

  46. I’ve been reading some of the comments on here and you guys seem to know what you are talking about. I have 3 questions for you if you could pls answer them.

    1. What part of the lib dems (by number of MPs) are the majority. social (left) or pro market (right)?

    2. Where does NC fit in, left, middle or right?

    3. What are the lib dem rules for another lib dem to try to challenge him for the leadership?

  47. Wayne – Bishop’s Stortford?? My family are all from there. Which school did you go to? In fact are you secretly my Tory cousin, sick of my Facebook updates, come here to needle me ;)

  48. Eoin, Amber – I have devised a cunning test of our leadership candidates, to see who is just talking the talk and who is the real deal. They have exactly 1 week.

    I’ll let you know the outcome ;)

  49. @COLIN
    You post to Rob Sheffield which gives details of your background and schooling is a classic. Whilst we two have never met, I know a number of people who thanks to Grammar School moved forward in life in a big way. My daughters F in L & M in L to name only 2.
    What a shame that opportunity has been removed for children from ordinary backgrounds. Of course the “party line” is “we want to see all children get that benefit”. Now 45 years later, generation after generation have shown that is NOT how it has turned out.

    Of course never being wrong has been a great asset to the left, university was the next element of education to “benefit”. Now, we see thousands of 5th rate graduates with 5 th rate degrees unfitted for the interview for MacDonalds. If not enough kids pass A level, make it easier, simples. If more kids from upper and middle class backgrounds have a higher IQ, lie about it and pretend they dont. What a c0ck up.
    We havn’t had much comment on the topical subject of education have we.

  50. I remember an old pub landlord refusing service to someone because they were ‘working class’. His reasoning was that their shirt sleeves were rolled up to the elbows. Apparently ‘middle class’ folk only roll their sleeves halfway up their forearms! This man was a scion of a very successful gypsy family, so I thought his reasoning had some merit, as he was pretty astute.

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