Two more polls from last night. ComRes has a new voting intention poll for the Mirror and GMTV. Topline figures are CON 39%(nc), LAB 33%(nc), LDEM 15%(-1), so virtually no change from their poll in the Indy a week and a half ago, and still showing Labour somewhat lower than other companies.

YouGov’s daily tracker meanwhile showed figures of CON 42% LAB 37% LD 14%, with the Conservatives maintaining a lead of 4-5 points or so.

One thing I missed from the ICM poll last night, they asked an AV voting intention question and found the contest neck and neck. 45% supported AV, 45% opposed it. This is very much in line with the YouGov poll on Monday showing the No campaign just one point ahead.


448 Responses to “New YouGov and ComRes polls”

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  1. @Colin

    Re NC – Bullseye

    Hence Milipede Minor saying they’d need Clegg’s head on a platter for there to be a Lib/Lab deal.

  2. Howard – I don’t think they really listened.

    I don’t think voters believe a single word from the minute a campaign is on to election day. I think they might have thought it was all NC “getting a bit carried away” with the surge.

    Colin’s vitriol is a little harsh, but I believe you asked about Lab LEANING voters, not core vote like me? If so, I think yes, no-one actually expected the wider LibDem party to go along with it and thought NC was just hedging.

    Again, that’s not what I thought, but as you and I know from the doorsteps:

    1) People don’t believe a word we say

    2) People don’t hear much of what we say anyway

    I can imagine several million surprised faces over cornflakes saying “The LibDems? Did a deal with the Tories? NEVER!!!!!!”

  3. @Pete B

    You said “…Has the class system lost some nuances since his day?…”

    It’s certainly not as stratified as it was, it’s less easy to tell from physical appearance, and class self-identification is way down. But it’s still there.

    Another diagnostic faultline is “How big an impact is losing your job?”. Some people are broken by it (upper working), some people are hurt but recover (lower middle), some people lose their job frequently (freelance), some people aren’t bothered (e.g. workless), and others…own the factory. Each will have different concerns.

    @Roland Haines

    You said “…Fiddler, smiddler, what are you the Rabbi ?…”

    If I was the Rabbi, my posts would be wittier. And probably longer. If that’s possible… :-)

    Regards, Martyn

  4. @Roland

    You’ve really made me think. I’ve got my work cut out to come up with Tories I admire. Churchill, McMillan, Heath even.

    Nobody since Thatcher, who I really couldn’t stand. She did make the Tories a ‘toxic’ brand and I am not the only person my age whofeels this way. Can Dave cleanse the brand? Time will tell.

  5. @Sue

    I think it’s wrong to hold it against Cameron that he got the political bug post-univ. We don’t fret about vicars who get God post-univ. (Or do we?)

    Of course Ed Balls was quite into politics at Oxford – he was a member of the Conservative Association. Better to be political than consistent I guess… ;-)

  6. Roger,

    You might be on to something…. ICM push people ot name a party.. maybe looking at their greens BNPe tc might tell us something…

    If the wording of a question can change the answer by up to 10% and Anthony showed with the economy question asked by ICM a couple of days ago vis a vis the YG ques. then I guess the wording of those who dont know could do so as well.

    Perhaps instead of dont know (which is quite value laden) we could replace it with – No firm choice. or Still considering.

    A lot of my work invovles discourse analysis and value laden concepts. I never underestimate the impact they can have…. meanwhile a look at ICM’s others is worth a shot…
    _____________

    Mike N,

    There are two classes.

    Those who exploit and those who are exploited.

    The expression “middle class” is the most abused word in politics… How can you be M/C if you are mortgaged to the hilt, your kids bleed your wallet and you meet the impending monthly bills with a sense of doom?

    __________

    Pete B,

    Not just your views on peneology :)

    _______

    Colin,

    thanks for the reply… very forthright

  7. Valerie/Roland,

    Tories I admire..

    Widdecombe, Davis, Fox, Rifkind, Hurd, Hogg and Lamont.

  8. Last Fandango – Of course you do, so I’m sure do Colin and Roland.

    Whatever, it really wasn’t important, simply comments from the programme.

  9. Perhaps we need a version of Godwin’s Law for Mrs T? I suggest (modestly) Pete B’s Law. :)

    For those unfamiliar with Godwin’s Law it’s something like “the longer an online discussion continues, the more likely is Hitler and/or the Nazis to be mentioned”

  10. Howard,

    Yes you are correct… still some way to go to iron out the yellow issue.. They have been honing blue and yellow weightings fro years. I think it is down to never really having to dedicate much thought to getting yellows right…

    Maybe the 2005 polls are worth looking at for yellows.. namely do they really pick up that much in the campaign…?

  11. Eoin

    “How can you be M/C if you are mortgaged to the hilt, your kids bleed your wallet and you meet the impending monthly bills with a sense of doom?”

    If that is you-then you are quintissentially middle class -surely.

  12. So far, I have liked both definitions of class very much. (Eoin’s has the prize though so far). Anyone got any more?

  13. Colin,

    Not me :) I dont do doom :) M/C is a fabricated myth to spur us all on to trample over each other for tuppence. Classic leftist dogma I know but that’s my take.

  14. @ Pete B 6.43

    I just followed your link and did the “quiz”. The results are pretty much what I would described myself. Left wing, slightly authoritarian but socially conservative. Spot on and interesting.

    On the Tories I admire, Widdecombe would get my vote too, very principled and not obnoxious.

  15. Haha, Graham – Widdecombe gets my vote too. But for being very principled AND very obnoxious.

    I also liked Chris Patten and admire William Hague and IDS.

  16. Oh, and Boris.

  17. We could amalgamate the conversations about class and which opposing politicians we admire, by asking ‘Would you allow one of you servants to marry x’

    I would allow Frank Field, Kate Hoey and Clem Atlee. Definitely not Crosland.

  18. Sue,

    Patten, Hague and IDS aint bad…

    Gee this list is getting too long.

  19. I Think being principled is generally a good thing, creates a battle of ideas, gives choice in the political arena. Principles are often based on morality, which where you might disagree with someone’s principles or morality is better than amoraltiy

  20. Hague for me is forever associated with the smug 16 year old speaking at Party Conference aaargh

  21. I don’t understand why Colin keeps trying to ascribe sad thoughts to me. I do have them sometimes but not about politics (erstwhile political colleagues – yes).

    I don’t buy the hurt tribalists giving LD a go and then waking up in horror (apart from Val and Valerie) – there aren’t that many to account for a 6% swing (24 to 12). But the idea of floaters doing that for that reason is somewhat incredible. It would only account for people who normally might not vote except occasionally for Labour (Tories always vote, I have witnessed one old bird ariving at the polling station on a stretcher).

    So I’m still mystified – why should I look at 2005 Eoin??

  22. Graham – Re Principles. That’s how Widde won me over. I’d watch her on TV and even when it made you cringe, you couldn’t help but respect her honesty.

    Re Hague – I think that’s what I admire. He’s bouncier than a rubber ball and through it all he’s just become more of a statesman.

  23. Eoin

    “M/C is a fabricated myth to spur us all on to trample over each other for tuppence. ”

    Glad you said fabricated ;-)

    I love the USA presidential election campaigns.

    The candidates appeal to the “middle class” there.
    It is that big middle group in the income strata -blue collar & white collar, that drives the economy forward by their hard work & aspiration , and their family values.

    I loved hearing Obama appeal to this huge block of middle america in that way, because it had no hint of the petty class based sneering & jealousy which typifies references to the middle class in this country.

    In USA it is a term of pride.

    In UK it is a term of abuse……until Gordon discovered it’s virtues when GO said he would cut their welfare.

  24. Howard,

    Perhaps the polling companies fluctuated on the score for yellow to the same degree in the run up to polling day.

    If they did *and we know they did in 2010) they their method of weighting yellow ‘might’ and its a big ‘might’ have a systemic failure.

  25. Colin,

    I did not like Brown’s use of it nor Obama’s.

    Everybody tries to claim the middle class as their own.. From the trainee nurse who’s maxed her credit card… to the retired CEO who has a healthy pension and option on shares as part of his package.

    How can these two characters belong to the one class?

    Obviously the nurse is exploiting the ill for her own gain ;)

  26. Howard

    “I don’t understand why Colin keeps trying to ascribe sad thoughts to me”

    To be a LibDEm with such negative opinions of your coalition’s Prime Minister ( your agreement with Alecs post) must surely be a source of sadness for you.

    In truth-would you rather be coalesced with Labour Howard?

  27. Howard.- The Lib vote had been slowly climbing for some time. Long before the campaign.

    The LibDems were becoming more popular and even if they were wrong, I think a lot of students, younger people and those who felt left but hated Labour felt the LibDems were a viable alternative. The stance on tuition fees, mansion taxes, anti-VAT rise, anti-cuts to soon and too deep, civil liberties and tax reform hit a chord.

    Clegg indeed made statements that made it clear to someone like me that he would do a deal with the Tories, but he also refused to commit one way or another.

    Oh, goodness, remember the endless interviews where all they asked Clegg was “Who will you form a coalition with” and he wouldn’t answer?

    Then we got “Vote Clegg, get Cameron” but we BELIEVED it more when they said “Vote Clegg, get Brown”. That was the one that shifted votes.

    It’s not really such a surprise that around half woke up on May 11th and spluttered “Say Wha??? But I voted to keep Cameron out” (That’s on every leaflet that the Libdems have ever put out in my constituency) or “But what about the cuts? That’s what won me over” or “AV is such a sell-out”.

    The other stuff that they HAVE achieved, often means more to Lib voters than the public as a whole.

    Despite what Clegg might be achieving, the public seem more aware of what he sacrificed to do so.

  28. @ Wayne
    Maybe I should “get over it” but you see I grew up in the eighties, they were my teenage years and like many my political memories are scarred by the Thatcher era. Toxic Tories were created then

  29. Eoin

    I looked at ICM (who also use telephone polling). They say they ask how people voted in the last election and then plug that into a rather complicated calculation. Unlike Harris or ComRes, they don’t tabulate the response, so I can’t confirm the actual question. (The methodology section hasn’t been updated since May, but Anthony reckons that’s just sloppiness rather than testing out something new).

    They then ask likelihood to vote, which they also use for weighting. When they then ask voting intention the question is

    The Conservatives, Labour, the Liberal Democrats and other parties would fight a new election in your area. If there were a general election tomorrow which party do you think you would vote for?

    I reckon because the question specifically mentions the Lib Dems, this explains why ICM usually rates them higher than the other pollsters.

    As far as Others go, ICM tend to produce similar figures to the others except ComRes. I suspect that because ICM squeeze less than ComRes and don’t ask for Party ID, the minor Parties aren’t boosted the same way.

    [Roger – ICM mentioning the Lib Dems in the question is definitely not the reason. If they were unusual in doing it, then it would be, but in fact all the polling companies prompt for the Liberal Democrats in some way when asking the question – AW]

  30. Eoin

    “How can these two characters belong to the one class?”

    I don’t like the word class.

    It is a divisive word.

    THere are better ways of describing the stratas in society.

    It is our ball & chain-socially, economically, attitudinally.

    Americans & Australians don’t have class.

    They don’t care where you came from-just what you are & what you do & what you say & achieve.

    And the world’s greatest philantropists-world & life changing people-are Americans.

    We think philanthropy & charity are nasty middle class activities in this country.

    Was it Sue who commented that we are mealy mouthed in this country.

    She was so right-we are a class riddled society who love division & divisiveness.

  31. @colin

    Americans & Australians don’t have class.

    You could not be more wrong.

  32. @ Éoin

    RE: Your post to Rob Sheffield

    Please stop using “Tribal” as a derogatory term – tribes are societies, neither inherently good or bad. 8-)

  33. @ Colin

    In my experience, American society is probably more class-conscious than the UK, if that is possible. 8-)

  34. @ Sue

    Upper-Class: Title & lots of money
    Middle-Class: Title but no money; No title but lots & lots of money
    Working-Class: The rest of us.

    Middle-Class (as used nowadays): Those too delusional to realise they have a boss & are paid a salary & therefore they are actually working-class.
    8-)

  35. RE: America

    h tt p://www.nytimes.com/pages/national/class/index.html

    This detailed link speaks for itself though the eloquent introduction does a fair job for those that cannot be bothered to read all the information and facts contained therein…

    “A team of reporters spent more than a year exploring ways that class – defined as a combination of income, education, wealth and occupation – influences destiny in a society that likes to think of itself as a land of unbounded opportunity”

    RE: Australia

    Here is something from a consultants site advising prospective emigrants from the US and UK:

    “Class differences derived from wealth are less marked than in the U.S., and the gap between the rich and poor is narrower. For all that’s said about egalitarianism here, however, social classes exist, separating white collars from blue and private from public school graduates. Australia’s schools are more like England’s: old school ties matter.”

    Here is the abstract from an academic report (though I know you like to ignore/ condescend to real scholarly research Colin)

    “If Horne described Australian society by its “climate so professedly egalitarian” and its “Fair go, mate”, McGregor points out that “it is impossible to live in australia without coming to realize that the different social classes […] experience crucial differences in privilege and inequality, indeed live different lives.”…. when analyzing the current opinion polls, it is obvious that Australians are conscious of class and they identify themselves as belonging to a particular social class (McGregor, 2001). Australia as an ‘egalitarian society’ is more an “illusion” (Kuhn, 2005) than reality in today’s capitalist and globalised world where inequalities are increasing. “

  36. Amber,

    You read me wrong…

    I am as Tribal as you are likely to get. I just dont think it mixes with pragmatism….. so take that back :P

  37. The UK is the most class conscious country on this planet.

    87% of people agree so (ICM 2007).
    _________________________________

    And Colin, I agree, it is not a nice word….
    _____

  38. @Reds,

    Keep an eye out for Andy’s battle bus: The People’s Party has gone on tour.

    He is very kindly coming to our CLP- God luv ’em.

  39. Ed Balls keeps coming up with cracker policies…. why didnt we give this man a more prominent role over the last few years?

    h ttp://www.google.com/hostednews/ukpress/article/ALeqM5iDQIY1lAP3H0VUUIkzZmTLY78w2A

  40. Amber
    “Middle-Class (as used nowadays): Those too delusional to realise they have a boss & are paid a salary & therefore they are actually working-class.”

    I thought middle class had salaries paid into the bank, whereas working class picked up wages in cash? This might have changed a bit nowadays but plenty of people are still paid in cash. By your definition bank managers, some doctors, judges etc would be working class.

  41. YOUGOV; CON 41%, LAB 37%, LDEM 14%

  42. EOIN

    Thanks for the link to the PA report on Ed Balls and EU cross border regulations. Ed B has been a much more interesting candidate than expected and it’s just a pity that he’ll never be able to escape from the tabloid efforts to associate him with all that they perceive to be bad about GB.

    Unfortunately the idea of trying to restrict cross border payments to families in the EU is a total non-starter as any restrictions would be impossible to police. Other issues such as delaying access to benefits until you’d be resident in another EU country for a given (longer?) period of time are live and need to be looked at.

    Incidentally, I’m interested at your generous respect for some Tory grandees from the past. I have no time for any senior Tory as I’ve not seen any evidence to change my view that you just can’t trust a Tory in power.

  43. Rob

    Australia

    My comments are based on personal experience & discussion with one professional family & their friends.

    America

    I do not believe they are more class conscious than UK.

    Do you here Americans rabbiting on about class all the time like we ( you) do ?

    Do people call DC a Toff in America as a term of derision based on his family background , education, speech & wealth.

    Of course social differences exist based on ” a combination of income, education, wealth and occupation” They do everywhere.

    The issue is are these constantly the basis of assessments & judgements made about people-as they are here.

    Eoin

    Thanks-it is an absolutely neccessary word in the political armoury of some because it divides, and hides those oh so difficult blurred edges ; embarrasing areas of consensus & shared values.

    Oh yes, the class warrior wants none of that nonsense.

  44. The difference between upper and middle class is all genetics. You can’t really be upper class unless your parents were upper class (or in rare cases where your parent was a prime minister or something and was made a hereditary). Money doesn’t come into it. I know some dirt poor aristos and it doesn’t dent their upper-classness one bit. (Actually aristos are in my experience usually lovely).

    The difference between middle and lower class is all education. Whatever your background, if you are educated at private school (or a great Grammar school) and go to a good university then you are middle class. Money only makes a difference insofar as it partially determines who gets what education. Otherwise money is irrelevant.

    My mother was born in 1932. She had no father’s name on her birth certificate. She as abandoned and grew up in a care home. She never attended school. She struck out on her own at 15. She lived in rented accommodation practically her entire life and loved smoking, cards and reading Mills and Boon.

    If you met me without knowing any of that you would assume I was from a privileged background. I am a public school educated Tory with a plummy accent. I utterly accept that I am middle class, but the only thing that made me so was a council grant for a boarding school.

  45. colin

    you are being unfair on howard and on other libdems who are less than enthusiastic about cameroon

    you know very well that many blues are seriously unhappy with the PM, should they all join the UKIP

    and what is this nonsense about absolute loyalty, the dems are a democratic party, we always gripe and complain. and we like it that way

    blues and reds have far more in common with each other than they do with us. they both have this authoritarian streak

  46. Julian,

    Thanks- last nights must have bee an outlier for yellows and blues

    DavidB,

    Humanism is the greatest motivator of them all. Thus liking someone comes easy. Widdecombe shares my creed she is just a bit over zealous on it. They are all much older than I and we are brought up in Ire to respect our elders so they gain almost automatic respect for that, Fox is a scot and I love em all. David was a pugilist in his younger day – as was I. Hurd was the smiling face of the Thatcher era (certainly better than that aul goat).

  47. Thanks to all who replied so interestingly. No thanks to those who increasingly sound like newspaper reactors (I await the word ‘m*ppet’ and ‘s*ddo with dread :-) ) but we haven’t had much of that since the pre-election invasion fom PB.

    I think the combination of reasons advanced are believable. If I were a LD strategist, I would recommedn ‘keep your head down all’ as a recommendation to colleagues. I would not recommend ‘doth protest’ – it would be too much.

    14% is OK for now!

  48. “you are being unfair on howard ”

    How’s that Richard?
    I just asked him if he would prefer to be in with Labour?
    What makes that question unfair?

    He hasn’t answered it -so it doesn’t really matter. Howard rather dislikes answering my questions it seems ;-)

    “you know very well that many blues are seriously unhappy with the PM, should they all join the UKIP”

    How do you know that I know that ?
    I don’t know that as it happens-nor do I believe it.
    But of course it depends what you mean by “many” & “seriously” I guess.

    “and what is this nonsense about absolute loyalty”

    I don’t know.
    Where did you see it?-who said it?-what did they say?

    “blues and reds have far more in common with each other than they do with us”

    When you say “us” Richard do you refer to :-
    All Norwegian Lib Dems
    All UK Lib Dem MPs
    Some Lib Dem MPs
    All UK Lib Dem voters
    Some Lib Dem voters
    All Lib Dem party members
    Some LibDem party members
    You & Howard.

    It rather makes a difference.

  49. I recommended too much in the last post -sorry must review before sending

  50. Eoin

    “Humanism is the greatest motivator of them all”

    Amen to that ;-)

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