Two more polls from last night. ComRes has a new voting intention poll for the Mirror and GMTV. Topline figures are CON 39%(nc), LAB 33%(nc), LDEM 15%(-1), so virtually no change from their poll in the Indy a week and a half ago, and still showing Labour somewhat lower than other companies.

YouGov’s daily tracker meanwhile showed figures of CON 42% LAB 37% LD 14%, with the Conservatives maintaining a lead of 4-5 points or so.

One thing I missed from the ICM poll last night, they asked an AV voting intention question and found the contest neck and neck. 45% supported AV, 45% opposed it. This is very much in line with the YouGov poll on Monday showing the No campaign just one point ahead.


448 Responses to “New YouGov and ComRes polls”

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  1. That rather dampens the ICM fireworks….

  2. ComRes for all their faults were not too far off in May 2010. Where can I find out more about their methodology? The fact that they are consistent of late is causing me to think again about the merits of them.

    Having said that, they afford way too much to ‘others’. They and ICM/YG seem to be ‘polls’ part in that sense….

    We rob can say with a wee bit of confidence that ICM’s 37 is a bit low for blue

  3. Fantabulo, Karabunga, Fortisimo, Grosser Ausfaht,
    Sacre’e Merde, Comres have the Tories with a 6 point lead.
    All this with a leader on holiday.

    Is anyone from the last thread getting my drift?

  4. Ok my voyage to the bottom of the deep sea of Comres methodology has revealed the following…

    For their 10th August poll * Their others are 13%…

    Greens 4%
    BNP 2%
    SNP 3%

    Like other polling companies, ComRes have a squeeze on likelihood to vote..

    all those 5-10 (eg.. from moderately likely to vote to certain to vote are included)… If I am not mistaken (please correct me someone) YG have it the opposite way about eg.. 1 is certain to vote…

    Sorry to be a pain but it matters if

    YG inclued 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 (that adds up to five)
    ComRes include 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 (that adds up to six)

    The bottom line is that yg are stricter on likliehood to vote…

    This matters..

    11% of Greens 9% BNP 13% SNP only have a likliehood of 5 to vote ie not 6,7,8,9,10 which would make them more certain to vote… Bearing in mind that the big three are 5% 3% 5% for the scoring of 5 in terms of likeliehood I think that comRes are not squeezing the smaller parties enough on likelihood to vote. Given that a considerable portion of those who have never voted comprise the Greens % and that only 41% of greens are certain to vote.. and that the overall % afforded to green was 4% could it be that CoMR overegg Greens among others..? To put it into perspective a 4% return for greens would see a Quadrupling in their vote… I am not saying it is impossible but the vote does seem ‘soft’.

    SNP are the same… they polled 1.7% in the GE ComR now give them a rating of 3%… that is some climb in the SNP’s share..

  5. Roland,

    Please do not go and see your doctor. If I am as lively of mind and body at 73 i shall be grateful indeed. :)

  6. out here in public sector land I can see a really interesting thing occurring. Firstly a lot people and projects KNOW that the new budget implications means that their Jobs and way of life are changing dramatically yet (to my surpirse) there is very little anger being directed to the Tories. when you consider the vast number of left wingers i work with this is really quite surprising!

  7. Don’t-Tell-Em-Pike,

    Thanks for pointing out one of the great myths. YG showed that more public sector workers would vote blue than red. This backs up your little anecdote.

  8. EOIN

    I’m sorry that you are advising Roland Haines not to go and see the doctor. My concern is that at the age of 73 he needs to check out whether age is beginning to impact on his ability to make sound judgements.

  9. DavidB,

    A man of your undoubted intellect should find magnaminity easier to come by. You are a socialist afterall. Aint we supposed to be nicer than that lot :P

  10. With regrd to Eoin’s comments on the others figures; whilst I agree that the figures do look rather high, it strikes me that there is another factor that I’m not sure whether or how polling companies account for:

    The Greens only fielded 310 candidates in the last election, the BNP a few more. That means in the Green case that if 4% had a genuine desire to vote Green, perhaps only 2% would in reality be able to do so, especially at this stage in the electoral cycle where there is no clue about who the candidates might be.

  11. TonyO,

    for greens that makes some sense… 1% voted in 2010.. perhaps they could have reasonably expected on fielding 650 candidates a return of 2% say? It would account for some of the gulf between 1-4%.

    It does not explain the SNP mind you… although there are quite a lot of Scots in England :) (I’m teasing – the regional breaks would show this)

  12. Eoin – YouGov don’t filter by likelihood to vote, we include everyone who gives a voting intention, so in that sense, it’s a lot more relaxed than ComRes.

  13. Anthony,

    Thanks for that… Some of your old tables (election campaign) used to measure it. Was that just for the hell of it?

  14. @eoin and david b
    Thanks for the concern chaps but I am a mere 64.

    Mind you if I was 104 I would still delight in taking the psis out of these fools who read so much into one poll which proves virtually nothing. I would feel like a complete narna if like David B I had predicted the end of the coalition yesterday, based on Rupert Murdoch fixing a dodgy Sky Poll. I mean how desperate can you get? And who needs the docter.

  15. @EOIN CLARKE
    Because you always display rationality Eoin, let me run this past you. The ICM neck and neck jobby, seemed to me a good tactical result for the coalition.
    The blues were down 5 the yellows were up 5. This would I imagine, make LDs feel a bit better about the coalition and life in general. Labour stayed at the same level, which left the government with the same lead over the opposition.

  16. @Eoin

    I agree with you about the SNP – but they did poll 1.7% at the last election, so 3% is only a small leap, especially if its actually 2.X rounded up. Still on the high side, but with a relatively small sample not as worthy of comment as 4% for the Greens.

  17. Roland,

    Yes i agree.

    In September 2011 if yellows are as low at 10-11% it will spell big trouble for clegg. the evidence for this is the last time yellows were 11% – they got rid of Ming Campbell. Clegg is the best friend blues have in the LDs. Thus, his survival is very much in blue interest…

    An election in winter 2011 would be a disaster for Cameron.

    ________

  18. Tony O

    Thanks for that… I was looking at an ICM poll which shows where yellow slippage is going..

    Of all the yellows who have since deserted them only 2% went to the SNP… thus i am struggling to see where they are getting their gain from… (96% of reds have stuck with their party of choice in 2010)

    __________

    Incidentally of all the yellows who have abandoned ship 30% have gone over to blue… 57% have switched to red… and a not altogether unimpressive 11% have gone green. (ICM Aug.)

  19. Have a look, do, at the BBC News page. There is a link to a ‘content’ and ‘not content’ on the 100 days of Coalition.

    Anecdotal, of course, but interesting on several fronts, one being a general lack of confidence in DC.

    The reasons they gave were those why I think the opposite. Always knew I was out of step!

  20. Howard,

    I will take a look now… Aisde from that I did say that Simon Hughes would come good ;)

  21. @Eoin

    The slippage to the SNP is always going to be a much smaller figure as its only a possibility for about 1 in 12 voters (as suich its proportionately not dissimilar to the 30% going blue). I also suspect that there may have been some Blue slippage in Scotland since the election and some of this (especially in the North East) might have gone to the Tartan Tories.

  22. Eoin

    I agree with much of your thoughtful analysis on the previous thread about the possibility of a coalition split:

    ht tp://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2781#comment-667242

    I would add just two points:

    Firstly, I don’t think that Davis is likely to be the one causing trouble in the Tory Party, at least initially. Despite the fact he was very shabbily treated by Cameron, I think he must be very pleased with the Coalition’s moves on civil liberties. (I suspect without Lib Dem pressure, Cameron might not have been so bold against tabloid pressure). Also I think he’s still ambitious enough to know that, in the Conservative Party, if you wield the knife you don’t get the crown.

    The polls also show there’s no appetite among Conservative supporters for a split, apart from the usual Telegraph columnists and their followers.

    Secondly, too many people (though not yourself) underestimate the cohesion of the Liberal Democrats. Because they’ve been through some bad times, they tend to hang together like a family, despite disagreements. Also many will have experience of working in coalition at a local level; rather than Clegg’s EP experience, this will have informed the way the Coalition works.

    Incidentally I believe that many Tories are “delighted” with the ministerial skills of their Lib Dem partners – forgetting that many Lib Dems will have had much more experience than the Tories due to local government.

    So I don’t think it will be anything “minor” that splits the Lib Dems away. Apart from anything else, Clegg was careful to get the deal ratified at all party levels; a split would have to go through the same process. Hughes and other dissidents won’t break away without that sort of support.

    If the coalition does go wrong, it will because of non-delivery on some part of the agreement or some major new policy announced without consultation. If Cameron does not keep control of his ministers (Pickles, Gove and Lansley are already danger areas) and especially if Osborne dances only to the City’s tune, this could easily happen.

    The Lib Dems are shrewd enough only to bale out over a high profile and popular issue Their core support is holding up better than expected and even if the two-thirds dissolution is passed, they would only quit the Coalition when they would be happy to go into an election.

    I’ve disagreed with you before about supply and confidence. I think the example of Canada made them realise that it’s more difficult to control a minority government from the outside than in. It also goes against their long-term aim of normalising a multi-party system.

    I still think a coalition split is possible. To continue a metaphor several commenters have used above, there are three people in this marriage; and if Cameron’s old love Osborne does try too hard to get his way, we may well see Nick Clegg looking all weepy on Panorama. As I’ve said before, I think the Coalition is the Tories to lose, probably over tax or finance matters; Osborne and the rest have to careful.

  23. Tony O,

    The slippage to greens from LDs was 6 times greater than SNP.

  24. Roger,

    I agree with all of that. My extrapolation of permetations (earlier) was more an act of pacifism than rational. Davis, however, has shown an erratic (if highly commendable and principled) streak before. I still think him unlikely to ‘kick off’ though. Yellows remind me of Sinn Féiners a little.(sorry yellows). NI has spent decades forecasting the Shinners internal combustion.. compromise has made them more tight knit in my experience.

  25. And thus we enter the eternal cycle on the comments page. Of a poll coming from a company that is either normally above the trend or bellow it, being used as “Proof” that a poll from a different company is wrong.

    Coincidently, now showing a 0.75 R2 trend for average polling at the Conservative lead diminishing by a third of a point a month.

  26. Roger M
    Your analysis matches mine and not just because we come from the same poiltical background, although of course we do both understand the culture of LD decision making, which last may be less apparent to others.

    This is a long game and it will be played as such.

  27. eoin and roger mexico
    I know David Davies personally and believe me, he knows how popular he will be if an uprising leads to embarrasment and defeat. He has a bit more between his ears than a union leader who bullys Labour, contributes to their downfall and ends up with a Tory government. The latest I hear about is Clegg being keen to reduce and stop middle class winter fuel payments. This shows Clegg is serious about saving money. And it is fair. With this sort of attitude, they can make a go of it. If people like Hughes want to join Labour thats up to them.

  28. I was always sceptical about the public voting for AV, they don’t turn out in significant numbers to put a simple X in ONE place. The complication of deciding on a list of ‘priorities’ will be too irksome for most people because they haven’t a clue as to who the candidates are. AV looks dead in the water to me.

    ps. Has anyone done the ‘maths’ on how things will work out on new, equal-sized constuencies?

  29. Roland,

    Yes I agree with that. But what if his stunt ended in a tory gov. with an outright majority? You kno wmore than me some of the polciies that might be a bridge too far for royal blues. Would you care to divulge the policy areas that they are most likely to be wary of yellow influence?

  30. @Eoin,

    Six time greater but across 1/12th of the country compared to the SNP, still means that relatively its twice as much to the SNP as the Greens in Scotland (if the Green figure is relatively uniform across the UK).

    @Eoin/Roger

    Personally I think Clegg is probably very happy with what Hughes is doing and doesn’t see him as a threat (I don’t think he is actually). I think as deputy leader he was always going to have take on the major role in maintaining the party’s identity and providing some tension against the Tories. The challenge is to do that without splitting either party or government and I think he’ made a good start to that.

  31. I was always sceptical about the public voting for AV, they don’t turn out in significant numbers to put a simple X in ONE place. The complication of deciding on a list of ‘priorities’ will be too irksome for most people because they haven’t a clue as to who the candidates are. AV looks dead in the water to me.

    ps. Has anyone done the ‘maths’ on how things will work out on new, equal-sized constituencies?

  32. TonyO,

    Yes I accept both points. regarding Hughes, I was exploring the inner recesses of my nugget to think of any eventuality that might bring down the coalition. I have previously stated that I’d bet my mortgage on it lasting.

  33. I think the main challenge for the coalition will be appeasing both the left and the right from the centre. If Tories had won outright and decided to govern from the centre, they’d just have to throw a few bones to the right. However, if push comes to shove they would favour the right, as I believe could govern without the left of the LDs.

  34. @EOIN
    In my view defence.

  35. Roland,

    Thanks for that. I will stew on it for a while.

  36. @MICHAEL V
    Indeed you are right. If every Liberal MP voted against the government, along with every Labour MP, there would not be enough to bring the government down.

  37. @ Roland

    Agree with you on defence. Trident and Iran are just two issues that could come to the fore in this area. Have Clegg et al made many public utterances on the subject of Iran?

  38. Michael V
    If you think that either DC or NC will join an invasion of Iran, after the Afghan and Iraqi debacles, I would like to see your evidence, based on current or recent statements from either gentleman.

    On LD side, quite simply, the Government would end, but this is fantasy thinking.

  39. ROLAND

    “Thanks for the concern chaps but I am a mere 64.”

    Thars nobbut a lad-as they say where I was born ;-)

  40. @MICHAEL V
    In my opinion Clegg is weak and wrong on the subject. People like me know that curing a young mothers breast cancer is more important than a submarine, until, some crazy Chinaman or Iranian decides to push his luck in 5 or 6 years time. “Oh it wont happen” is what they said in the 1900s and 1930s.

  41. @HOWARD
    Invading Lundy Island is out, never mind Iran. My point is their extreme provocation.

  42. Howrd/Roland,

    North korea and Pakistan seem more volatile… we in the west like to make a bigger deal of Iran than it is (although I accept it could become a big deal).

    I guess the coalition probably needs an Obama victory in 2012.

    the republicans would be less reticent about instigating a few conflicts.. if in doubt view John McCain’s beach boys number on youtube… I think it goes soemthing like “bomb bomb bomb- bom bomb Iran” or soemthing to that effect.

  43. @COLIN
    That cheeky tinker Eoin reckoned I was 74. But at least he hasn’t been to Volgagrad to have his brain rewired.

  44. Roland:
    “The latest I hear about is Clegg being keen to reduce and stop middle class winter fuel payments. This shows Clegg is serious about saving money. And it is fair.”

    Yes-I agree Roland. And remember that GO was the first to start talking of ditching welfare benefits for the better off. Brown jumped on it at the time with that stuff about him being “middle class” & Go attacking them.

    Another thing that strikes me-as we read reports of the agonising & disagreements-rows even-over the fine detail of the cuts, there is constant reference to The Coalition Agreement .

    GO & IDS were reported to have gone back to it as they tried to resolve IDS’s “make working pay” & GO’s ” cut excessive welfare”-and it looks as if caning more middle class payouts will be the way out.

    The Coalition Agreement really does seem to be the cement which binds them . I find it encouraging that a) they air their differences & slog it out, and b) that they have a reference point to always come back to.

    This says a lot for the seriousness & professionalism of those negotiations, and argues for a basic strength in the coalition.

    ……..even though the price looks like including my £200 christmas present from Gordon.

    Ah well….we are all in this together !

  45. @EOIN
    IMHO, David Cameron will make like Harold Wilson.
    Invitations to fly alongside the USAF in the bombing of Tehran or anywhere else, will be be flatly rejected.
    Further, unless Britain is directly threatened Cameron is as likely to go to war as Michael Foot.

  46. Roland,

    73 :) And dont you mean Stalingrad :) I do recall you saying it on another post… (reference to a cross trainer) how am I meant to know when your joking? Actually, don’t bother answering that, I know the answer :P

  47. Roland,

    I certainly get that impression. Wouldnt that be a welcome relief. you should do a southern Ireland and declare neutrality.

  48. @COLIN
    Where the hell is the social justice in paying a retired couple on £35,000 a year in pensions and £100,000
    in savings, a heating allowance. Not to mention a free bus pass. As I said the other day, I get heartily sick hearing about the poor on these threads. You know’ 12 year old car, rented house and can only afford one holiday in Benidorm each year. Probably over weight due to an expensive fast food diet. But the waste that goes with paying subsidies to a pair of retired school teachers to heat their home whilst the genuinely needy freeze is a disgrace. However, you wait for the said school teachers to start whining.

  49. ROLAND

    ” But the waste that goes with paying subsidies to a pair of retired school teachers to heat their home whilst the genuinely needy freeze is a disgrace”

    It is-and I for one am pleased that we have a Tory Chancellor who is willing to say so.

    “However, you wait for the said school teachers to start whining.”

    Oh yes -indeedy-there will be a socialist logic somewhere in the litany, which permits it to be castigated as an attack on the Welfare State.

  50. EOIN
    But De Valera still thought to send a letter of condolence when the Fuhrer passed away.

    Regarding neutrality in general, I have to say, it makes more sense than these idiots who think relying on Europe to fight their way out of a Belgian chip cornet has any merit.

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